Not at all surprising, after the total shitshow in the House the other day. I think at this point the most likely options are, in order, a no-deal Brexit, a general election, May's deal, and a...
Not at all surprising, after the total shitshow in the House the other day. I think at this point the most likely options are, in order, a no-deal Brexit, a general election, May's deal, and a second referendum.
The Conservative party has egg all over their face in any case. Labour will try with all their might not to have to sit in power for Brexit since it will be a disaster no sane politician would...
The Conservative party has egg all over their face in any case. Labour will try with all their might not to have to sit in power for Brexit since it will be a disaster no sane politician would want to own or be in charge of. An own goal of gigantic proportions.
The fact that it's taken so long for a vote of no confidence, even after being held in contempt of the House of Commons is extraordinary to say the least.
I don't think a no-deal Brexit is likely at all. It's just too destructive. Frankly, I think even revoking article 50 is more likely.
May's deal seemed dead in the water.
An election is possible, but will that take too long?
A referendum is possible, but that's basically saying "No Brexit" and admitting the whole process has been based on lies about what Britain could get.
Revoking article 50 based on a lack of time seems like the least bad option in many ways, but you'd have to admit that today's government has intentionally slowed the process down to try to force through Brexit at any cost, even a no deal-one, which May herself repeatedly said was worse than no Brexit at all. It's so strange that she's actually a remainer.
I think it's likely because it's the default option. If nothing changes before the deadline, no-deal will happen. EU have said - repeatedly - they will not renogatiate and it's this deal or no...
I don't think a no-deal Brexit is likely at all. It's just too destructive.
I think it's likely because it's the default option. If nothing changes before the deadline, no-deal will happen. EU have said - repeatedly - they will not renogatiate and it's this deal or no deal. On top of that, given the divisions in the House on the Irish backstop, May's deal is also not possible. What does that leave us with? No-deal or a new election, which might still result in no-deal.
I think even revoking article 50 is more likely.
I don't think revoking article 50 is possible at all. No Tory would ever do that, given they were the ones who triggered it in the first place. Even a quick election + majority Labour government wouldn't help as Corbyn is strongly pro-Brexit, he just doesn't want it to be on him, naturally. This is why his opposition to May has been very weak throughout the Brexit process - he wants Brexit, despite what his own MP's might think.
There's no majority for a no-deal brexit. That's why it won't happen. The consequences of it happening are also so politically terrible it's better to have your tail between your legs and...
There's no majority for a no-deal brexit. That's why it won't happen. The consequences of it happening are also so politically terrible it's better to have your tail between your legs and acknowledge that evoking article 50 was extremely premature.
A no-deal brexit will tear the UK apart. Ireland, Scotland.
Your analysis on Corbyn is on point. He's extremely weak because he's pro brexit but just doesn't seem to have arguments for how he'd be running the show any better himself. He doesn't attack the contents of the brexit stuff, just the government's handling. It just ends up looking pathetic.
If a general election is called, what will happen? The opposition is terrible, the government is terrible, the smaller parties seem terrible. How'd this all happen?
No majority is needed. In fact, the parliament doesn't have to do anything to trigger no-deal, because on March 29, 2019 the UK will leave the EU automatically as a consequence of triggering...
There's no majority for a no-deal brexit.
No majority is needed. In fact, the parliament doesn't have to do anything to trigger no-deal, because on March 29, 2019 the UK will leave the EU automatically as a consequence of triggering Article 50 back in 2017. That's why I said it's the default option.
If a general election is called, what will happen? The opposition is terrible, the government is terrible, the smaller parties seem terrible.
Yup :(
How'd this all happen?
A Tory thought he could completely shutdown eurosceptics once and for all with a referendum.
See, I just don't think Parliament could possibly live down the complete and total failure, the ultimate inadequacy of not being able to stop a catastrophic brexit when they clearly have the power...
See, I just don't think Parliament could possibly live down the complete and total failure, the ultimate inadequacy of not being able to stop a catastrophic brexit when they clearly have the power to.
Granted, the "disastrous" tax cuts and deals US Congress has put in place and then subsequently triggered show that even moving towards a known disaster sometimes isn't motivation enough.
If this brexit process was meant to function on some level as a way of showing regular people (whatever that means) that parliament listens to them and can be trusted, then what of the reactions from people who've trusted British politicians to be at least a tiny bit responsible if they can't manage to stop a mess of their own making that they've all agreed should be voted on in Parliament?
Yup, all good points. I just think given how massively divided the House is right now (even across party lines) they might be too deadlocked to do something and accidentally end up with a no-deal...
Yup, all good points. I just think given how massively divided the House is right now (even across party lines) they might be too deadlocked to do something and accidentally end up with a no-deal Brexit. I really hope that doesn't happen...
Yep I agree with this parliament directly revoking A50 is more likely than No Deal. No Deal makes the 2008 banking crisis look like a walk in the park and the government was able to just turn...
Yep I agree with this parliament directly revoking A50 is more likely than No Deal.
No Deal makes the 2008 banking crisis look like a walk in the park and the government was able to just turn around produce as much cash as needed to fix that.
I don't see how a General Election happens without a change of leadership in Labour. Cons or DUP are necessary to pass a vote and trigger a GE under the fixed term parliaments act. DUP would be...
I don't see how a General Election happens without a change of leadership in Labour.
Cons or DUP are necessary to pass a vote and trigger a GE under the fixed term parliaments act.
DUP would be insane to risk Cobryn as PM given his views on the island of Ireland.
The Conservatives are already in government they're only going to trigger a G.E. with the polls looking like they'd get decent majority. Even then given May's A50 -> G.E. disaster I think they'd be nervous of it.
So how does this go down? Boris Johnson wins a leadership contest?? a massive swing in the polls makes him think G.E. victory is likely??? He calls a G.E. and we delay Brexit?
I could very well see BoJo taking over and triggering a GE, mistakenly believing he could win a majority. After all, David Cameron thought he could bury the idea of Brexit with a referendum and he...
I could very well see BoJo taking over and triggering a GE, mistakenly believing he could win a majority. After all, David Cameron thought he could bury the idea of Brexit with a referendum and he is much smarter than Boris.
I don't think Cameron could envision in his wildest fantasies how dirty, lying and deceitfully the leavers would play in their referendum campaign. It was a gamble either way, but you don't expect...
I don't think Cameron could envision in his wildest fantasies how dirty, lying and deceitfully the leavers would play in their referendum campaign. It was a gamble either way, but you don't expect that whatever you expected.
I think Boris has a much better grasp of that group of politicians in his party being that he's been a part of that crowd.
However, I'm with you here, there's more than enough hubris to go around for politicians who're just going to fix this mess to forget how we all ended up in this silly situation in the first place.
Not at all surprising, after the total shitshow in the House the other day. I think at this point the most likely options are, in order, a no-deal Brexit, a general election, May's deal, and a second referendum.
The Conservative party has egg all over their face in any case. Labour will try with all their might not to have to sit in power for Brexit since it will be a disaster no sane politician would want to own or be in charge of. An own goal of gigantic proportions.
The fact that it's taken so long for a vote of no confidence, even after being held in contempt of the House of Commons is extraordinary to say the least.
I don't think a no-deal Brexit is likely at all. It's just too destructive. Frankly, I think even revoking article 50 is more likely.
May's deal seemed dead in the water.
An election is possible, but will that take too long?
A referendum is possible, but that's basically saying "No Brexit" and admitting the whole process has been based on lies about what Britain could get.
Revoking article 50 based on a lack of time seems like the least bad option in many ways, but you'd have to admit that today's government has intentionally slowed the process down to try to force through Brexit at any cost, even a no deal-one, which May herself repeatedly said was worse than no Brexit at all. It's so strange that she's actually a remainer.
I think it's likely because it's the default option. If nothing changes before the deadline, no-deal will happen. EU have said - repeatedly - they will not renogatiate and it's this deal or no deal. On top of that, given the divisions in the House on the Irish backstop, May's deal is also not possible. What does that leave us with? No-deal or a new election, which might still result in no-deal.
I don't think revoking article 50 is possible at all. No Tory would ever do that, given they were the ones who triggered it in the first place. Even a quick election + majority Labour government wouldn't help as Corbyn is strongly pro-Brexit, he just doesn't want it to be on him, naturally. This is why his opposition to May has been very weak throughout the Brexit process - he wants Brexit, despite what his own MP's might think.
There's no majority for a no-deal brexit. That's why it won't happen. The consequences of it happening are also so politically terrible it's better to have your tail between your legs and acknowledge that evoking article 50 was extremely premature.
A no-deal brexit will tear the UK apart. Ireland, Scotland.
Your analysis on Corbyn is on point. He's extremely weak because he's pro brexit but just doesn't seem to have arguments for how he'd be running the show any better himself. He doesn't attack the contents of the brexit stuff, just the government's handling. It just ends up looking pathetic.
If a general election is called, what will happen? The opposition is terrible, the government is terrible, the smaller parties seem terrible. How'd this all happen?
No majority is needed. In fact, the parliament doesn't have to do anything to trigger no-deal, because on March 29, 2019 the UK will leave the EU automatically as a consequence of triggering Article 50 back in 2017. That's why I said it's the default option.
Yup :(
A Tory thought he could completely shutdown eurosceptics once and for all with a referendum.
See, I just don't think Parliament could possibly live down the complete and total failure, the ultimate inadequacy of not being able to stop a catastrophic brexit when they clearly have the power to.
Granted, the "disastrous" tax cuts and deals US Congress has put in place and then subsequently triggered show that even moving towards a known disaster sometimes isn't motivation enough.
If this brexit process was meant to function on some level as a way of showing regular people (whatever that means) that parliament listens to them and can be trusted, then what of the reactions from people who've trusted British politicians to be at least a tiny bit responsible if they can't manage to stop a mess of their own making that they've all agreed should be voted on in Parliament?
Yup, all good points. I just think given how massively divided the House is right now (even across party lines) they might be too deadlocked to do something and accidentally end up with a no-deal Brexit. I really hope that doesn't happen...
Yep I agree with this parliament directly revoking A50 is more likely than No Deal.
No Deal makes the 2008 banking crisis look like a walk in the park and the government was able to just turn around produce as much cash as needed to fix that.
I don't see how a General Election happens without a change of leadership in Labour.
Cons or DUP are necessary to pass a vote and trigger a GE under the fixed term parliaments act.
DUP would be insane to risk Cobryn as PM given his views on the island of Ireland.
The Conservatives are already in government they're only going to trigger a G.E. with the polls looking like they'd get decent majority. Even then given May's A50 -> G.E. disaster I think they'd be nervous of it.
So how does this go down? Boris Johnson wins a leadership contest?? a massive swing in the polls makes him think G.E. victory is likely??? He calls a G.E. and we delay Brexit?
I could very well see BoJo taking over and triggering a GE, mistakenly believing he could win a majority. After all, David Cameron thought he could bury the idea of Brexit with a referendum and he is much smarter than Boris.
I don't think Cameron could envision in his wildest fantasies how dirty, lying and deceitfully the leavers would play in their referendum campaign. It was a gamble either way, but you don't expect that whatever you expected.
I think Boris has a much better grasp of that group of politicians in his party being that he's been a part of that crowd.
However, I'm with you here, there's more than enough hubris to go around for politicians who're just going to fix this mess to forget how we all ended up in this silly situation in the first place.