So this might be a bit complicated for those not in the know of Israeli politics... The way it works is that whichever parties can build a coalition, form the government. The head of the largest...
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So this might be a bit complicated for those not in the know of Israeli politics...
The way it works is that whichever parties can build a coalition, form the government. The head of the largest party in the coalition is Prime Minister. Parties must negotiate with each other on what sort of policies they will seek to enact, leading to messy arrangements where the only way any coalition can be created is if everyone is at least a little unhappy. On top of that parties are frequently created, destroyed, coalesced, and separated, so you can't really keep track of anything. These are the second elections in the past year, and I would say there is miniscule probability that there will be a third. No one wants that.
I am going to assume that no parties change between now and the time a coalition is formed...a messy assumption.
I guess we will start with the obvious...since both Likud (led by Netanyahu) and Blue & White (Led by Gancz and Lapid) have more than 30 votes out of 120 total, there is no coalition that does not include one or both of them.
The Joint List, a coalition of 4 different Israeli Arab parties who themselves have widely different political views, currently has 12 votes. You can assume that they won't be part of any coalition. Nor do they expect to be. Rather, the leader of the Joint List is looking forward to heading the opposition, which gives him access to security briefings. Presumably this only happens if Likud and Blue & White are in a unity government together.
That leaves the following:
Shas – 9
Yisrael Beytenu – 8
United Torah Judaism – 8
Yamina – 7
Labor-Gesher – 6
Democratic Camp – 5
Labor-Gesher, and Democratic Camp are reasonably in a coalition with Blue & White. That puts them at 44 seats. They need 17 more. They aren't going to get it from the Joint List. Joining with the "Kingmaker", Liberman of Yisrael Beytenu (=Israel Our Home), still won't get them to 61, neither in the event that they siphoned off only one of the religious parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism). Yisrael Beytenu will never sit with religious parties because they want the mandatory draft to be universal. The religious parties haven't sat with a left-wing government in decades, though it is technically possible if the center-left is willing to capitulate enough to the things that the religious parties find important. So the only real way I see Blue & White being in the coalition without Likud is if they somehow convince the religious parties to join up, a difficult proposal.
Likud + Yamina is 39, if you add both religious parties, that is 56. The only way Likud gets a coalition without Blue & White is if they convince Yisrael Beytenu to join, something Liberman has vowed against because he doesn't like favoritism towards religious Jews. In fact, the entire reason that there is a second election is because Liberman refused exactly that coalition last time.
Finally, I think the most likely result, that will leave pretty much everyone unhappy, is if center-left joins center-right in a Likud + Blue & White coalition. Whether that includes Netanyahu as the head of Likud and involved in government, or not, I couldn't tell you. This unity coalition would be at least 65 seats, enough to form a majority, and could add on other parties as typically the largest coalition possible is desirable.
I agree with your analysis. I still hope for blue + White, Lieberman, Joint List, & misc leftwing groups. But that would be a fragile coalition at best because of Lieberman.
I agree with your analysis. I still hope for blue + White, Lieberman, Joint List, & misc leftwing groups. But that would be a fragile coalition at best because of Lieberman.
I feel like Joint List is still somewhat untouchable, and in it of itself, unstable, considering it ran as two separate parties just a few months ago. Many of their demands seem quite reasonable....
I feel like Joint List is still somewhat untouchable, and in it of itself, unstable, considering it ran as two separate parties just a few months ago. Many of their demands seem quite reasonable.
Like, I would personally favor a coalition with them as a center-left potential voter, but I understand why the Blue & White politicians would not.
I agree. It's just me being hopeful, because I think mainstream cooperation with the Joint List is the only way for the political stability of Israel to continue.
Like, I would personally favor a coalition with them as a center-left potential voter, but I understand why the Blue & White politicians would not.
I agree. It's just me being hopeful, because I think mainstream cooperation with the Joint List is the only way for the political stability of Israel to continue.
So this might be a bit complicated for those not in the know of Israeli politics...
The way it works is that whichever parties can build a coalition, form the government. The head of the largest party in the coalition is Prime Minister. Parties must negotiate with each other on what sort of policies they will seek to enact, leading to messy arrangements where the only way any coalition can be created is if everyone is at least a little unhappy. On top of that parties are frequently created, destroyed, coalesced, and separated, so you can't really keep track of anything. These are the second elections in the past year, and I would say there is miniscule probability that there will be a third. No one wants that.
I am going to assume that no parties change between now and the time a coalition is formed...a messy assumption.
I guess we will start with the obvious...since both Likud (led by Netanyahu) and Blue & White (Led by Gancz and Lapid) have more than 30 votes out of 120 total, there is no coalition that does not include one or both of them.
The Joint List, a coalition of 4 different Israeli Arab parties who themselves have widely different political views, currently has 12 votes. You can assume that they won't be part of any coalition. Nor do they expect to be. Rather, the leader of the Joint List is looking forward to heading the opposition, which gives him access to security briefings. Presumably this only happens if Likud and Blue & White are in a unity government together.
That leaves the following:
Shas – 9
Yisrael Beytenu – 8
United Torah Judaism – 8
Yamina – 7
Labor-Gesher – 6
Democratic Camp – 5
Labor-Gesher, and Democratic Camp are reasonably in a coalition with Blue & White. That puts them at 44 seats. They need 17 more. They aren't going to get it from the Joint List. Joining with the "Kingmaker", Liberman of Yisrael Beytenu (=Israel Our Home), still won't get them to 61, neither in the event that they siphoned off only one of the religious parties (Shas and United Torah Judaism). Yisrael Beytenu will never sit with religious parties because they want the mandatory draft to be universal. The religious parties haven't sat with a left-wing government in decades, though it is technically possible if the center-left is willing to capitulate enough to the things that the religious parties find important. So the only real way I see Blue & White being in the coalition without Likud is if they somehow convince the religious parties to join up, a difficult proposal.
Likud + Yamina is 39, if you add both religious parties, that is 56. The only way Likud gets a coalition without Blue & White is if they convince Yisrael Beytenu to join, something Liberman has vowed against because he doesn't like favoritism towards religious Jews. In fact, the entire reason that there is a second election is because Liberman refused exactly that coalition last time.
Finally, I think the most likely result, that will leave pretty much everyone unhappy, is if center-left joins center-right in a Likud + Blue & White coalition. Whether that includes Netanyahu as the head of Likud and involved in government, or not, I couldn't tell you. This unity coalition would be at least 65 seats, enough to form a majority, and could add on other parties as typically the largest coalition possible is desirable.
I agree with your analysis. I still hope for blue + White, Lieberman, Joint List, & misc leftwing groups. But that would be a fragile coalition at best because of Lieberman.
I feel like Joint List is still somewhat untouchable, and in it of itself, unstable, considering it ran as two separate parties just a few months ago. Many of their demands seem quite reasonable.
Like, I would personally favor a coalition with them as a center-left potential voter, but I understand why the Blue & White politicians would not.
I agree. It's just me being hopeful, because I think mainstream cooperation with the Joint List is the only way for the political stability of Israel to continue.