42 votes

IRGC: Missile attack on US base in Iraq is revenge for Soleimani killing

36 comments

  1. [6]
    CALICO
    Link
    Resident guy who knows things, popping in. Yesterday around around lunch, Kandahar Air Base got a warning over the Big Voice. After what feels like forever carrying our fucking armor around...

    Resident guy who knows things, popping in.

    Yesterday around around lunch, Kandahar Air Base got a warning over the Big Voice.

    wooOOOOOO MISSILE INBOUND. SEEK IMMEDIATE SHELTER.
    INCOMING INCOMING INCOMING. ROCKET ATTACK.

    After what feels like forever carrying our fucking armor around everywhere with an air of anticipatory anxiety, everyone about shit themselves running for the bunkers.

    There was not, in fact, a missile inbound. Ten minutes before the 'All Clear' was given, I'd done the math and heard no booms; I knew this must have been a false alarm, likely something was detected and an alert was put out in caution. However, for a short time I was shitting myself along with everyone else.

    I was woken up last night with another announcement that shit had gone down.

    I say this to contextualize what I'm about to tell you:

    DON'T PANIC

    At least, not in the short term.

    The information is all over the place in open-source; from 'everything is fine', to 'WW3 heating up'.

    Since I can't go and give you anything more substantial, I have two sources to present to you, and while one of them is historically unreliable, these are the two things I want to highlight and for y'all to focus on:

    @JZarif

    Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched.

    We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.

    @realDonaldTrump

    All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.

    Now, let's see if I can't ease some of your anxieties.

    • The Ayatollah knows an all-out war would leave him dead and Tehran in ruins.

    • Iran needs to have done something, because saving face and politics.

    • There are no casualties reported.

    • "Iran took & concluded proportionate measures"

    • Iranian news media is reporting a great success.

    • POTUS is saying all is well.

    From these bullets here is a probable takeaway:

    America assassinated a high-level, and publicly-loved Iranian military figure.
    Iran is pissed, but knows that striking back would escalate.
    They must respond in some way, or look weak. (looks matter in GeoPol)
    Strike a base, leaving zero casualties, claim success.
    Tell your people you've had your revenge.
    Tell the World you've had your revenge.
    *wink*

    Essentially:

    "America, we did this to appease our population. We didn't hurt anyone. Let's call it even, and we can avoid war."

    I can't say anything to back this up more substantially. But I will tell you that I don't have information that would counter this conclusion.

    It's a lot to ask a reasonable person to have faith in Trump—I certainly don't. However, if he can avoid giving a fire & brimstone statement in the morning, I think the Nation and Military of Iran will be content to let this go.

    26 votes
    1. [5]
      SuperGracchiBros
      Link Parent
      So based off what you're saying, the ball is now back in Trump's court in terms of escalation, which is concerning. He's mercurial, and if recent reporting is to be believed he chose to...

      So based off what you're saying, the ball is now back in Trump's court in terms of escalation, which is concerning. He's mercurial, and if recent reporting is to be believed he chose to assassinate Soleimani after choosing the option on a whim from a list. He might choose peace today but do something wild tomorrow. Seems like there's a drunken Nixon in the White House, with less heart or forethought.

      4 votes
      1. [3]
        stephen
        Link Parent
        Wasn't Nixon a prolific consumer of Johnny Walker Blue? And Trump a prolific tee totaler? More like pathologically deranged, mentally declining Nixon....

        drunken Nixon

        Wasn't Nixon a prolific consumer of Johnny Walker Blue? And Trump a prolific tee totaler? More like pathologically deranged, mentally declining Nixon....

        4 votes
        1. [2]
          SuperGracchiBros
          Link Parent
          Yeah I meant someone with the impulse control of drunk Nixon, who once came very close to nuking North Vietnam.

          Yeah I meant someone with the impulse control of drunk Nixon, who once came very close to nuking North Vietnam.

          3 votes
          1. stephen
            Link Parent
            I know I was just musing that "drunk Nixon" is kinda funny considering baseline Nixon was drunk. So Trump is like... drunk drunk Nixon.

            I know I was just musing that "drunk Nixon" is kinda funny considering baseline Nixon was drunk. So Trump is like... drunk drunk Nixon.

            2 votes
      2. CALICO
        Link Parent
        This is correct.

        So based off what you're saying, the ball is now back in Trump's court in terms of escalation

        This is correct.

        3 votes
  2. [2]
    Deimos
    Link
    The Associated Press article about this also includes that a stampede broke out as Soleimani's coffin was being transported through his hometown, with state TV saying that at least 56 people were...

    The Associated Press article about this also includes that a stampede broke out as Soleimani's coffin was being transported through his hometown, with state TV saying that at least 56 people were killed and over 200 injured.

    12 votes
  3. JakeTheDog
    Link
    Does anyone have any idea of at what point in a hypothetical escalation would Russia or China come to the aid of Iran? As in e.g. sending their own air support over.

    Does anyone have any idea of at what point in a hypothetical escalation would Russia or China come to the aid of Iran? As in e.g. sending their own air support over.

    9 votes
  4. [14]
    Algernon_Asimov
    Link
    It looks like Iran has accepted the USA's invitation to a lovely little war. Quelle surprise. Please tell me that briefing includes someone saying to him "Look what a mess you got us into with...

    It looks like Iran has accepted the USA's invitation to a lovely little war. Quelle surprise.

    US officials confirmed that a missile attack had taken place and said that President Donald Trump was being briefed on the situation.

    Please tell me that briefing includes someone saying to him "Look what a mess you got us into with your stupidity and your arrogance." I know it won't happen, but someone needs to tell him to his face that he started this war.

    9 votes
    1. [9]
      envy
      Link Parent
      Why? Trump likely started the conflict deliberately, to assist with his reelection later this year.

      someone needs to tell him to his face that he started this war.

      Why? Trump likely started the conflict deliberately, to assist with his reelection later this year.

      12 votes
      1. [5]
        Odysseus
        Link Parent
        I'm no fan of Trump, but I disagree with that. Soleimani has been a thorn in America's side for a while now. I'm more inclined to believe that Trump saw the Embassy attacks and killing of the US...

        I'm no fan of Trump, but I disagree with that. Soleimani has been a thorn in America's side for a while now. I'm more inclined to believe that Trump saw the Embassy attacks and killing of the US contractor as an opportunity to make an example of Soleimani. Misguided politically, but not at all out of character for Trump. I have a harder time seeing how this would help his odds of re-election at all. He's still very popular with his base and amongst republicans in general, the sort of people who would approve of this sort of thing. The swing voters probably won't all be swayed in his support, and of course, those who disapprove of Trump won't approve of this move either.

        Furthermore, it's been clear that neither the US nor Iran want to escalate this conflict. Iran very well understands the MASSIVE power asymmetries between them and the US. They now know that this administration, unlike previous ones, are more willing to take action when Iran crosses a line, even if it is a detriment to US objectives in the long run. Even their retaliation, the missile attacks against US bases, caused little to no US casualties- a perfect chance to de-escalate while still saving face. I am doubtful this will expand into a major conflict between US and Iran unless the US responds by attacking Iranian soil or something nuts like that.

        8 votes
        1. [2]
          envy
          Link Parent
          How is that clear? Someone attacked an Iraqi base, killing a US contractor. The US bombed the shit out of an Iranian backed militant group. The militant group then attacked a US embassy in Iraq....

          Furthermore, it's been clear that neither the US nor Iran want to escalate this conflict.

          How is that clear?

          Someone attacked an Iraqi base, killing a US contractor. The US bombed the shit out of an Iranian backed militant group.

          The militant group then attacked a US embassy in Iraq. The US then killed Soleimani.

          Iran is now openly attacking US troops in Iraq.

          7 votes
          1. gpl
            Link Parent
            I don't know how likely it is, or how true but: There are some signs that this latest Iranian strike was designed to both a) satisfy hardliners at home and b) not be worth further retaliation by...

            I don't know how likely it is, or how true but:

            There are some signs that this latest Iranian strike was designed to both a) satisfy hardliners at home and b) not be worth further retaliation by the US. Reports now indicate that there were no US casualties, and that the missiles largely landed in unoccupied portions of the bases (which I understand to be very large). Furthermore, there were reports in Iranian media leading up to this about missiles being mobilized and deployed, something that definitely would have been known to US intelligence - this indicates that Iran was more or less telegraphing the strike. The language post-strike has also been largely final from the Iranian side, saying they have "carried out and concluded" their retaliation. All of this is enough to make me think it is possible that Iran does not want escalation, and that the ball is in the US's court .

            3 votes
        2. The_Fad
          Link Parent
          Does your opinion on the matter fluctuate at all when presented with this?

          Does your opinion on the matter fluctuate at all when presented with this?

          1 vote
        3. envy
          Link Parent
          You were right (I think. I hope.) There is still a power struggle in Iraq and Syria, US is still exerting economic sanctions on Iran, Soleimani's dead, Iran has restarted it's nuclear program......

          You were right (I think. I hope.)

          There is still a power struggle in Iraq and Syria, US is still exerting economic sanctions on Iran, Soleimani's dead, Iran has restarted it's nuclear program...

          So... Trump considers this a win and moves on?

      2. [3]
        Algernon_Asimov
        Link Parent
        That's all the more reason for people to call him out on this matter.

        That's all the more reason for people to call him out on this matter.

        1. [2]
          Keegan
          Link Parent
          Plenty of people are calling Trump out on this. His advisors probably told him it wasn't a good idea, and he just ignored them. It isn't like including that in the briefing would affect him in any...

          Plenty of people are calling Trump out on this. His advisors probably told him it wasn't a good idea, and he just ignored them. It isn't like including that in the briefing would affect him in any way anyways. It's clear he rejects any criticisms of himself.

          2 votes
          1. The_Fad
            Link Parent
            If Reza Marashi is to be believed, they most certainly didn't. Reza is the Research Director for the National Iranian American Council, worked for four years in the Office of Iranian Affairs for...

            His advisors probably told him it wasn't a good idea

            If Reza Marashi is to be believed, they most certainly didn't.

            Reza is the Research Director for the National Iranian American Council, worked for four years in the Office of Iranian Affairs for the US State Department, spent time as an analyst for the Institute of National Strategic Studies covering China and Middle East affairs, and has worked as a private strategic consultant on Iranian political and economic risk. (Info pulled from his bio page on the NIAC's website, here.)

            2 votes
    2. Omnicrola
      Link Parent
      Sadly, it wouldn't make any difference I'm afraid. I'll wager tomorrow morning's presidential address constitutes mostly either "killing Solomani wasn't bad because _____" and/or "the situation...

      Sadly, it wouldn't make any difference I'm afraid.

      A Narcissist's Prayer
      That didn't happen.
      And if it did, it wasn't that bad.
      And if it was, that's not a big deal.
      And if it is, that's not my fault.
      And if it was, I didn't mean it.
      And if I did...
      You deserved it.

      I'll wager tomorrow morning's presidential address constitutes mostly either "killing Solomani wasn't bad because _____" and/or "the situation isn't that bad, MSM is making me look bad again".

      12 votes
    3. JoylessAubergine
      Link Parent
      This is not an accepted invitation to war. It was a very careful message that to Iranians says "we, the IRGC, bombed the Great Satan for their killing of Soleimani" and to America says "we didn't...

      This is not an accepted invitation to war. It was a very careful message that to Iranians says "we, the IRGC, bombed the Great Satan for their killing of Soleimani" and to America says "we didn't kill any Americans, we aren't escalating this but we need to save face"

      Aramco attacks show how precise Iran can be if they choose. If they wanted to escalate this to war there would be a dozen American dead now.

      8 votes
    4. Parliament
      Link Parent
      If Iran were accepting an invitation of war, they would have killed American troops in retaliation.

      It looks like Iran has accepted the USA's invitation to a lovely little war.

      If Iran were accepting an invitation of war, they would have killed American troops in retaliation.

      1 vote
    5. xstresedg
      Link Parent
      Sounds like a wrestling promo. That's how I'm imagining all briefings with D-Tramp now.

      Sounds like a wrestling promo. That's how I'm imagining all briefings with D-Tramp now.

  5. [3]
    Litmus2336
    Link
    I really hope conflict can be avoided, it will offer us no benefit and only lead to more death. Even if we were to conquer Iran, it's foolish to think we'd be able to enact friendly regime change....

    I really hope conflict can be avoided, it will offer us no benefit and only lead to more death. Even if we were to conquer Iran, it's foolish to think we'd be able to enact friendly regime change. And that's a big if.

    Unfortunately I think this means we need to grow comfortable with a nuclear Iran.

    7 votes
    1. [2]
      thundergolfer
      Link Parent
      It's small point in this context, but we shouldn't grow or be "comfortable" with a nuclear anyone. nuclear weapons are horrid, and we need to be moving towards global disarmament.

      It's small point in this context, but we shouldn't grow or be "comfortable" with a nuclear anyone. nuclear weapons are horrid, and we need to be moving towards global disarmament.

      6 votes
      1. Kuromantis
        Link Parent
        But we (the US,UK, and France) are nuclear powers? I think the problem is that, unfortunately, nukes are the only thing that really stops global (and especially authoritarian powers who would...

        But we (the US,UK, and France) are nuclear powers? I think the problem is that, unfortunately, nukes are the only thing that really stops global (and especially authoritarian powers who would gladly choose to make enemies burn than have their own citizens be happy) from just declaring war on eachother. Most of the world is not a democracy and the parts that are are being intensely swayed the other way and we will have to deal with that somehow.

        6 votes
  6. [3]
    Adys
    Link
    Welp, I have a friend coming back from Iran on the 10th. With missiles flying around, I'm starting to highly doubt her plane won't end up grounded.

    Welp, I have a friend coming back from Iran on the 10th.

    With missiles flying around, I'm starting to highly doubt her plane won't end up grounded.

    7 votes
    1. [2]
      Shahriar
      Link Parent
      #FAA Statement: #NOTAMs issued outlining flight restrictions that prohibit U.S. civil aviation operators from operating in the airspace over Iraq, Iran, and the waters of the Persian Gulf and the...
      5 votes
      1. Adys
        Link Parent
        Great... Any news about Europe bound flights?

        Great... Any news about Europe bound flights?

        5 votes
  7. [4]
    Litmus2336
    Link
    Both nations are militarily aligned with each other, and already provide military aid. I would not be surprised to see additional assistance being provided, however I doubt we will see Russian or...

    Both nations are militarily aligned with each other, and already provide military aid. I would not be surprised to see additional assistance being provided, however I doubt we will see Russian or Chinese combatants entering the fray unless things end up looking really bad for Iran a la the Korean war. Even then I'm not sure if we'd see that.

    4 votes
    1. [3]
      Omnicrola
      Link Parent
      I think you meant to reply to a comment rather than create a new one?

      I think you meant to reply to a comment rather than create a new one?

      2 votes
  8. [2]
    diode
    Link
    Why is the source an Israeli paper? Seems inappropriate given the relationship between the countries. Wouldn't Reuters or some other "neutral" publication make more sense?

    Why is the source an Israeli paper? Seems inappropriate given the relationship between the countries. Wouldn't Reuters or some other "neutral" publication make more sense?

    4 votes
    1. Kuromantis
      Link Parent
      Yeah I agree. The original article on Soleimani 's killing is from AL Jazeera, a Qatari government publication, for God's sake!

      Yeah I agree. The original article on Soleimani 's killing is from AL Jazeera, a Qatari government publication, for God's sake!

      1 vote