8 votes

How will the Nevada caucuses turn out?

Posted by Kuromantis (edited )
Tags: usa.nv, politics, future, predictions, 2020 us presidential election, democratic party, democratic primary, caucuses

Fears grow over Nevada caucus malfunction (Probably as bad as Iowa. Not paywalled)

Another caucus is coming. But Nevada will look completely different (It will be far more representative than Iowa. Also they will use a Google Form so technical issues will be limited. Paywalled)

What we know (and don't) about the Nevada caucus 'tool' (Covers on the 'tool' that will be used to count the votes, potential backups in case of failure and a few other caucus related technicalities. Not paywalled)

6 comments

  1. [2]
    skybrian
    Link
    Nobody knows. There are also few polls and they are of dubious accuracy because the pollers don't have a good idea who will turn out: But unless you work for a campaign and have a specific reason...

    Nobody knows. There are also few polls and they are of dubious accuracy because the pollers don't have a good idea who will turn out:

    [...] pollsters typically give certain responses more weight than others in order to make sure their sample accurately reflects the likely electorate. But given the dearth of historical caucus day data, developing formulas to accurately weigh different responses becomes nearly impossible.

    Further increasing the difficulty of developing turnout models is the fact that [...] the caucus rules will be different this year.

    But unless you work for a campaign and have a specific reason for it, making predictions is mostly a waste of time anyway - essentially another form of clickbait. The best way to find out what happens is to wait until after it happens.

    6 votes
    1. Kuromantis
      Link Parent
      To be fair I was more thinking about whether the caucus process will work well rather than the results.

      To be fair I was more thinking about whether the caucus process will work well rather than the results.

      4 votes
  2. [4]
    Comment deleted by author
    Link
    1. [2]
      MimicSquid
      Link Parent
      Do you think that Warren's supporters will collect behind Buttigieg? I'm admittedly in a coastal liberal bubble, but the people I've talked to in person will be moving from Warren to Sanders if...

      Do you think that Warren's supporters will collect behind Buttigieg? I'm admittedly in a coastal liberal bubble, but the people I've talked to in person will be moving from Warren to Sanders if Warren drops out.

      6 votes
      1. gpl
        Link Parent
        I'm in the Midwest, though still near a big city, and I agree with this. I will probably vote for Warren in my state's primary, but if she drops out I will vote for Sanders. I know other people in...

        I'm in the Midwest, though still near a big city, and I agree with this. I will probably vote for Warren in my state's primary, but if she drops out I will vote for Sanders. I know other people in my area who intend to do the same. Warren and Sanders are much closer policy-wise than Warren and Buttigieg, so I'm not really sure why supporters of Warren would shift to Pete. Some of course will, but I expect the many people to join the Sanders camp. This admittedly out of date 538 article seems to back this up - the amount of "Sanders-second-choice" Warren supporters is nearly double that of "Pete-second-choice" voters.

        8 votes
    2. Kuromantis
      Link Parent
      I agree. I find this to be a good thing since then it will be more clear as to whether Bernie/Warren or a centrist candidate is closer to winning, although I'm pretty sure this will make things...

      Nevada is going to be the make or break point for both Warren and Biden. If either of those two candidates perform as they have in Iowa or NH expect them to drop out.

      I agree. I find this to be a good thing since then it will be more clear as to whether Bernie/Warren or a centrist candidate is closer to winning, although I'm pretty sure this will make things more tense, not less. Whatever happens, I will be surprised if more than 2 candidates are left, and if so, it will be because of the caucuses failing again.

      Similarly Nevada will be the indicator of Buttigieg's true potential as a candidate. Much is made of his issues with non-white voters, and Nevada will indicate whether or not they are meritless. If Buttigieg comes in second again he is officially the moderate of choice and the contender to Sanders.

      I disagree, Bloomberg is using his money to make himself a serious candidate, which is really working.

      1 vote
  3. Kuromantis
    Link
    Thankfully it went well. The candidates only dropped out the day before super Tuesday though.

    Thankfully it went well. The candidates only dropped out the day before super Tuesday though.