26 votes

Amy Klobuchar ending presidential bid

17 comments

  1. [17]
    moonbathers
    Link
    I wonder what's going to happen in Minnesota tomorrow now. There must have been some communication between campaigns over the weekend for Steyer, Klob, and Buttigieg to all drop? Or maybe the...

    I wonder what's going to happen in Minnesota tomorrow now. There must have been some communication between campaigns over the weekend for Steyer, Klob, and Buttigieg to all drop? Or maybe the latter two want to band together behind Biden to stop Sanders.

    7 votes
    1. moocow1452
      Link Parent
      That seems the most likely option. If the DNC doesn't want Sanders or Bloomberg, then it's got to widen it's moderate lane.

      Or maybe the latter two want to band together behind Biden to stop Sanders.

      That seems the most likely option. If the DNC doesn't want Sanders or Bloomberg, then it's got to widen it's moderate lane.

      14 votes
    2. [6]
      SuperGracchiBros
      Link Parent
      If that's their plan, it might backfire pretty badly. From the handful of polls I've seen, Bernie is the most popular second choice for most of the candidates bases, including Buttigieg's.

      If that's their plan, it might backfire pretty badly. From the handful of polls I've seen, Bernie is the most popular second choice for most of the candidates bases, including Buttigieg's.

      13 votes
      1. Bullmaestro
        Link Parent
        I think it will backfire pretty badly for another reason. The public doesn't particularly like Biden and him as the nominee would ensure that we see Trump land a second term.

        I think it will backfire pretty badly for another reason. The public doesn't particularly like Biden and him as the nominee would ensure that we see Trump land a second term.

        13 votes
      2. Loire
        Link Parent
        The polls for Buttigieg we're split. Sanders was the most popular by 2%. It's not the talking point Sanders fans are making it. Twenty percent of Buttigieg's supporters going to Biden is enough to...

        The polls for Buttigieg we're split. Sanders was the most popular by 2%. It's not the talking point Sanders fans are making it. Twenty percent of Buttigieg's supporters going to Biden is enough to make him viable in a state like California.

        • Sanders: 21%

        • Biden: 19%

        • Warren: 19%

        • Bloomberg: 17%

        5 votes
      3. [2]
        moonbathers
        Link Parent
        I'm not sure I buy the lane theory either. I'm waiting to see how 538's projections change, particularly Minnesota.

        I'm not sure I buy the lane theory either. I'm waiting to see how 538's projections change, particularly Minnesota.

        5 votes
        1. vorotato
          Link Parent
          I think "lane theory" is how pundits strategize, however most people don't think in lanes, they think "I like this person because they speak to my one thing I care about, which is wholly...

          I think "lane theory" is how pundits strategize, however most people don't think in lanes, they think "I like this person because they speak to my one thing I care about, which is wholly independent of my other political opinions.". Most people don't go to the polls with some advanced strategy, they pick the person they like. One thing that is actually nice about that is it takes away some of the game theory out of the equation, as they aren't strategizing so there is no game theory to be had.

          7 votes
      4. vorotato
        Link Parent
        Lose/Lose trades favor the leader, Win/Win trades favor the person in last. Of course if it is as you say a WIN/win trade then things get a little more complicated. I think given that early voting...

        Lose/Lose trades favor the leader, Win/Win trades favor the person in last. Of course if it is as you say a WIN/win trade then things get a little more complicated. I think given that early voting has already happened, it probably won't matter much in the end.

    3. [2]
      NaraVara
      Link Parent
      This is the game for sure. I will also bet Biden is going to make some kind of behind-the-scenes pledge to only be there for one term and anoint a moderate successor. I swear to God the egos of...

      Or maybe the latter two want to band together behind Biden to stop Sanders.

      This is the game for sure. I will also bet Biden is going to make some kind of behind-the-scenes pledge to only be there for one term and anoint a moderate successor.

      I swear to God the egos of these ancient men trying to grasp at getting their names in a history book before they kick the bucket is going to be the end of us.

      8 votes
      1. moonbathers
        Link Parent
        It really is disappointing that we're going to have someone who was born in the 1940s be president for at least another four years into the 2020s and that we might have four presidents from that...

        It really is disappointing that we're going to have someone who was born in the 1940s be president for at least another four years into the 2020s and that we might have four presidents from that decade. I want people in power who aren't as prone to mental decline and aren't a missed heartbeat away from dying.

        7 votes
    4. [7]
      Kuromantis
      Link Parent
      I suppose Warren too, right? If she doesn't, she will help biden and the centrists to win by splitting the vote, right? 40% of her supporters gave bernie as a second choice, so her dropping out...

      There must have been some communication between campaigns over the weekend for Steyer, Klob, and Buttigieg to all drop

      I suppose Warren too, right? If she doesn't, she will help biden and the centrists to win by splitting the vote, right? 40% of her supporters gave bernie as a second choice, so her dropping out would boost Sanders the most.

      3 votes
      1. NaraVara
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        That would mean 60% of her supporters would be splitting between Biden, Bloomberg, and Gabbard. Being as how the venn diagram of Warren/Bloomberg or Gabbard people is probably close to nil, I...

        40% of her supporters gave bernie as a second choice, so her dropping out would boost Sanders the most.

        That would mean 60% of her supporters would be splitting between Biden, Bloomberg, and Gabbard. Being as how the venn diagram of Warren/Bloomberg or Gabbard people is probably close to nil, I think it has an about even chance of throwing the race to Biden as it would to Bernie if she leaves now.

        If you're a progressive your third-best case scenario right now is a contested convention with Bernie in a plurality lead and Warren with enough surplus delegates to put him over the top in a second ballot. Warren gets a lot of supporters who wouldn't go for Bernie but brings their numbers into the progressive, rather than moderate side. The two best case scenarios would be either Sanders or Warren having an outright majority, with the 1st and 2nd place rankings of them being dependent on which candidate you prefer.

        Edit: Also, Warren does not like Biden at all. Her negative feelings may not be as strong as her deep antipathy towards Bloomberg, but Biden's bankruptcy bill is specifically what got her into politics.

        4 votes
      2. [5]
        moonbathers
        Link Parent
        I'm not sure what her play is. I've seen people say that she's a single health incident from being runner-up, so maybe she's staying in in case one of Biden or Sanders is forced to drop due to...

        I'm not sure what her play is. I've seen people say that she's a single health incident from being runner-up, so maybe she's staying in in case one of Biden or Sanders is forced to drop due to health problems.

        3 votes
        1. [4]
          patience_limited
          Link Parent
          I'm one of the committed Warren supporters, not because I think her policy goals differ drastically from Bernie's, but because I believe her capacity to achieve those goals is greater on a number...

          I'm one of the committed Warren supporters, not because I think her policy goals differ drastically from Bernie's, but because I believe her capacity to achieve those goals is greater on a number of different levels, regardless of whether a woman is "electable". She's a capable legislator, administrator, regulator, educator, and leader, all in one package; Sanders has not shown the same grasp of implementation.

          I'd commit to Sanders if Warren dropped out, but he'd better have an excellent backup - his VP choices matter. The U.S. presidency is the biggest job in the world, and it's no longer reasonable to expect a single person to handle it. A Sanders/Warren ticket isn't a bad option, and I'd suspect that's where she's aiming if Sanders is prepared to disregard the conventional wisdom about choosing a Veep solely for geographical diversity of state participation or policy moderation.

          "I alone" is a proposition of demagogues. Sanders' supporters are going to be deeply disappointed in his results, regardless of his health, if he doesn't have effective delegation and administration around him. The unique partnership between Obama and Biden to handle both foreign and domestic policy, would be a model for Sanders/Warren if a Democratic Congress came with the progressive ticket.

          4 votes
          1. [3]
            SantalBlush
            Link Parent
            I'd be happy to see him pick Warren for VP if he gets the nomination. It would be tremendous for the progressive movement. I believe the problem will be both of them giving up their Senate seats.

            I'd be happy to see him pick Warren for VP if he gets the nomination. It would be tremendous for the progressive movement.

            I believe the problem will be both of them giving up their Senate seats.

            3 votes
            1. [2]
              patience_limited
              Link Parent
              Oh yes, that! It's still bizarre to me that the relic Senate, not state governorships, is considered the breeding ground for Presidential candidates. [This is true in the Democratic Party, at...

              Oh yes, that! It's still bizarre to me that the relic Senate, not state governorships, is considered the breeding ground for Presidential candidates. [This is true in the Democratic Party, at least - Republican governors have a more recent track record.]

              Not only does this selection potentially disadvantage the party's Senate votes, but it also selects for candidates who are older, less diverse, less experienced as executives, and more steeped in existing corrupt processes.

              5 votes
              1. NaraVara
                Link Parent
                Not that surprising. Senators end up on national TV and have access to national level lobbyists and fundraisers so they’re better position to spin up a nation-wide campaign really quickly....

                Oh yes, that! It's still bizarre to me that the relic Senate, not state governorships, is considered the breeding ground for Presidential candidates.

                Not that surprising. Senators end up on national TV and have access to national level lobbyists and fundraisers so they’re better position to spin up a nation-wide campaign really quickly. Governors have to build out from individual states. This is a consequence of having a “democratic” system that depends on every random person needing to know who you are to have a chance. The media winnows the field down months before any gets a chance to vote and candidates have no chance to actually introduce themselves to voters.

                2 votes