19 votes

After Super Tuesday, Joe Biden is a clear favorite to win the nomination

37 comments

  1. [37]
    dubteedub
    Link
    After the results of Super Tuesday, Nate Silver is now projecting Joe Biden as the clear favorite to win the nomination, putting his chances of winning a majority of delegates at 88%. In contrast,...

    After the results of Super Tuesday, Nate Silver is now projecting Joe Biden as the clear favorite to win the nomination, putting his chances of winning a majority of delegates at 88%. In contrast, Bernie is now given only a 2% chance to win. The odds of a contested convention have dropped down to just 10%.

    The biggest issues raised for Bernie is that he needed a huge win on Super Tuesday and instead is now down about 70 delegates to Biden. Bernie's best states (NV and CA) have already voted, he lost several toss ups (MN, MA, ME), and future states are looking tough (particularly FL).

    Nate Silver does point out that there is still a lot of potential volatility, but unless there are some dramatic changes in the next month or so, it seems Biden is a lock for the nomination at this point.

    I think this really underscores how badly Bernie was hurt by his gambit that young people would turn out and that he would bring in new voters. In fact in most states we saw huge DROPS in the youth vote. On the other hand, we did see a lot of new voters turn out who did not vote in 2016, they just happened to be older voters, folks in the suburbs, and black voters.

    https://i.imgur.com/tlBcr0s.png

    My biggest fear at this point is that Sanders supporters will decide to take their ball and go home come the general election if he loses the nomination. Hopefully if Biden gets the nomination he picks a VP candidate that will appeal to those on the left and helps bridge that gap.

    18 votes
    1. [20]
      Thrabalen
      Link Parent
      I have to admit, I was full-steam behind Bernie this time around. But, I also think that getting Trump out remains an important goal, so I will hold my nose and swallow the nasty medicine in November.

      I have to admit, I was full-steam behind Bernie this time around. But, I also think that getting Trump out remains an important goal, so I will hold my nose and swallow the nasty medicine in November.

      21 votes
      1. [6]
        dubteedub
        Link Parent
        The bright spots I see in this is that Biden will surround himself with good advisers in the White House, appoint competent agency leads across the administration, will restore trust with our...

        The bright spots I see in this is that Biden will surround himself with good advisers in the White House, appoint competent agency leads across the administration, will restore trust with our allies, will appoint liberal justices to the Supreme Court and across the judiciary, and will protect minorities, LGBT, women, migrants, and other communities.

        With the complete gridlock in Congress, unless we have some miracle where the Democrats win the Senate by a landslide, we need to start focusing progressive energy at the state level. We have spent way too long letting the Republicans take over our state houses and it leaves Democrats with less policy power in the states and a limited bench to run for national office.

        15 votes
        1. [5]
          Loire
          Link Parent
          Aside from outting Trump, Democrats need to come up big in the State legislatures more than anywhere else this election cycle. With the decennary redistricting coming up it's integral that...

          Aside from outting Trump, Democrats need to come up big in the State legislatures more than anywhere else this election cycle. With the decennary redistricting coming up it's integral that Republicans aren't allowed to draw the maps yet again. This seems to be something that is regularly forgotten but the redistricting performed after the 2010 census was integral to maintaining Republican viability at the federal level.

          14 votes
          1. [4]
            Kuromantis
            (edited )
            Link Parent
            Maybe offtopic but the amount of offices and people the Democrats need to win this election in order to secure stability long-term is really daunting. We need to win all the Midwestern swing...

            Maybe offtopic but the amount of offices and people the Democrats need to win this election in order to secure stability long-term is really daunting. We need to win all the Midwestern swing states and Florida to make sure that these states aren't permanently lost to Democrats because of voter suppression, Western and southern states like Arizona ,Colorado and North Carolina so we can take back the Senate to tear down the filibuster to actually pass stuff, all these states' legislatures so we can keep them from further gerrymandering the house, which we need to keep. I really hope you have the unity to win as many of these seats as possible in the election.

            6 votes
            1. Loire
              Link Parent
              It's sad to say but it's very unlikely they take the Senate. We can only really hope that they build enough of a beachhead to finish the job in 2024.

              It's sad to say but it's very unlikely they take the Senate. We can only really hope that they build enough of a beachhead to finish the job in 2024.

              8 votes
            2. [2]
              dubteedub
              Link Parent
              This is one reason why I am not so upset by the fact that Elizabeth Warren choose to embrace Super PAC money so late in her campaign or that Democrats have some wealthy donors. In Virginia's 2019...

              Maybe offtopic but the amount of offices and people the Democrats need to win this election in order to secure stability long-term is really daunting.

              This is one reason why I am not so upset by the fact that Elizabeth Warren choose to embrace Super PAC money so late in her campaign or that Democrats have some wealthy donors.

              In Virginia's 2019 election, Michael Bloomberg spent a few million dollars alone to support Democrats and raised the issue of gun control as a primary policy topic for the state party. With Bloomberg's help, the Democrats were able to maintain the Governor's office and flip the Assembly and Senate. They won by a closer margin and I don't think it could have been done without that injection of cash. It is also clear that despite Bloomberg's support in the state, it did not translate to a primary victory or endorsements by Virginia's Democratic leaders.

              We are facing a hugely uphill battle and if we can take money from rich backers without trading off our values, I am happy to do so.

              4 votes
              1. Kuromantis
                (edited )
                Link Parent
                Interesting. I gotta wonder how though. I don't want to trust rich people to fund a campaign without then making you their workhorse. I agree, although I have trouble imagining how would that...

                It is also clear that despite Bloomberg's support in the state, it did not translate to a primary victory or endorsements by Virginia's Democratic leaders.

                Interesting. I gotta wonder how though. I don't want to trust rich people to fund a campaign without then making you their workhorse.

                We are facing a hugely uphill battle and if we can take money from rich backers without trading off our values, I am happy to do so.

                I agree, although I have trouble imagining how would that work, since billionaires are the ones who benefit from bad working conditions, antitrust and general fiscal conservatism. Really it only works for philanthropy, which often is aimed at problems they helped build.

                3 votes
      2. [10]
        Hidegger
        Link Parent
        As crazy as it seems, if Bernie doesn't win the nomination I'm probably going to completely flip sides and vote for Trump or waste a vote on a third party. Biden is a terrible choice and getting...

        As crazy as it seems, if Bernie doesn't win the nomination I'm probably going to completely flip sides and vote for Trump or waste a vote on a third party. Biden is a terrible choice and getting him elected sets up the potential for 2 terms of a terrible candidate. While on the other hand we can keep Trump around to degrade everything for one more term and have a possibility of a decent candidate in 2024 after more people realize the effects from the Trump administration. With the filibuster and nearly even divide of the 2 parties in the house and senate it's doubtful that either one of them are going to get much done for this next term.

        7 votes
        1. Loire
          Link Parent
          This is ... just... Wow. The Supreme Court is currently 5-4 in favour of conservatives. One of the liberal justices is on deaths door and the next one to go after her will also likely be left...

          This is ... just... Wow.

          The Supreme Court is currently 5-4 in favour of conservatives. One of the liberal justices is on deaths door and the next one to go after her will also likely be left leaning (Breyer is the next oldest at 81). Four of the five conservative justices are the youngest people on the court with two of them being under sixty. By electing Trump you are almost guaranteeing a 6-3 conservative majority on the court and risking a 7-2 majority. Both those new justices are guaranteed to be under 60 resulting in them being on the court for 30+ years.

          By electing Trump you are guaranteeing that at least 4 of the 9 justices for the next three decades will be conservative.

          How do you think left leaning president will fare with a 6-3 majority of partisan conservatives in the supreme court? How do you think socialist/left legislation will fare under that scenario?

          People need to really think about what they are saying.

          19 votes
        2. hungariantoast
          Link Parent
          I mean, if you're not going to vote for Biden, then please just toss a vote to a third-party candidate and not Trump. The damage Trump's presidency has done to the United States cannot really be...

          I mean, if you're not going to vote for Biden, then please just toss a vote to a third-party candidate and not Trump.

          The damage Trump's presidency has done to the United States cannot really be understated. It has been an absolute disaster for the country and its effects will continue to reverberate for decades to come.

          15 votes
        3. Omnicrola
          Link Parent
          Do you honestly believe that after everything we've seen from his administration so far, that there is (literally) anything that would sway public opinion away from him/the Republicans in any...

          While on the other hand we can keep Trump around to degrade everything for one more term and have a possibility of a decent candidate in 2024 after more people realize the effects from the Trump administration

          Do you honestly believe that after everything we've seen from his administration so far, that there is (literally) anything that would sway public opinion away from him/the Republicans in any significant way? Call be jaded, but I don't see that happening. It will be years before the full repurcusions of this administration can be fully measured and quantified, and the ripple effects will be felt for decades. The only way public opinion of Trump will change in any significant way is when his supporters either glom onto the next populist or die of old age.

          12 votes
        4. ali
          Link Parent
          This kind of thinking is dangerous and I am sure statements like this have been used to manipulate the 2016 election by seriously making people switch sides. If you honestly think about voting for...

          This kind of thinking is dangerous and I am sure statements like this have been used to manipulate the 2016 election by seriously making people switch sides.
          If you honestly think about voting for Trump if Bernie did not get the nomination, I am at a loss for words. This sounds like cutting off your legs because you had a flat tire in the morning.

          10 votes
        5. [4]
          dubteedub
          (edited )
          Link Parent
          So why are you supporting Bernie in the first place? If you want progressive policies to be passed, why would you throw your vote away or support Trump? If you care about the environment, then...

          As crazy as it seems, if Bernie doesn't win the nomination I'm probably going to completely flip sides and vote for Trump or waste a vote on a third party.

          So why are you supporting Bernie in the first place? If you want progressive policies to be passed, why would you throw your vote away or support Trump?

          If you care about the environment, then Trump will do tons more damage with four more years that would not be seen under Biden.

          If you can about immigration, then Trump will continue detaining and separating thousands of children, more will die in concentration camps, more people will be ripped from their families and deported, and Dreamers will continue to be at risk. That would not happen under a Biden administration.

          If you can about criminal justice, islamophobia, LGBT rights, women's rights, worker's rights, all of these things will continue to slide backwards under Trump. Not to mention the fact that we would likely have a 7-2 conservative Supreme Court for the next several decades.

          Too much is at risk with a Trump re-election and if you claim to be a progressive and vote for him then I have no respect for you.

          9 votes
          1. [3]
            Hidegger
            Link Parent
            I didn't claim to be anything, progressive or otherwise, in fact I stated elsewhere that Bernie was actually a second choice from the Democratic Party and Yang was my first choice. Corporations...

            I didn't claim to be anything, progressive or otherwise, in fact I stated elsewhere that Bernie was actually a second choice from the Democratic Party and Yang was my first choice.

            Corporations all around the world are destroying the environment and the people are still buying into them using their products on a daily basis. It's a bit over bearing to assume Biden is going to fix that problem or sway idiots from doing idiotic things. His intended actions are actually going to take tax dollars and put it into the pockets of already rich people to produce things they should already have been producing decades ago in the form of subsidies. I have more faith in Elon Musk advancing our environmental impact than Biden.

            I don't really care about immigration or the country needing to grow in number, I'd actually like to see less people in our country and on the world, but regulating that is an encroachment on our freedom to choose what we do with our lives. Immigration deserves a humane process and it should be well known from the outside that isn't what is happening right here, right now. There is somewhere else to live that will treat these people much better, currently it is not here.

            I'm not islamic, LGBT or a woman, I don't need to press an agenda on these issues and I certainly don't need to suppress their agenda, but these issues aren't going to change if these demographics don't fully get behind someone that is actually going to press that kind of change. Most of this can be brought down to the media shaping the masses well before any single candidate has sway over public opinion. Biden with no majority backing in the senate will not accomplish much on these fronts.

            The biggest down side is the supreme court justices being appointed, which requires 2/3 vote from the Senate to actually get appointed. So as long as Democrats hold their numbers in the senate a terrible candidate shouldn't end up appointed. In conclusion, this means we should focus more on the senate elections and let the presidential election slide so that we end up with a fresh selection of candidates for president in 4 years vs 8 years from now. And if third parties need votes to become more viable in the future then it sounds like a better plan to review all of the 3rd party options and vote for one of them.

            4 votes
            1. Death
              Link Parent
              I'm just going to repeat what's already been said before: Biden's bad, but on all of the issues you mentioned Trump is not only worse, he's actively working to make it harder to resolve them going...

              I'm just going to repeat what's already been said before: Biden's bad, but on all of the issues you mentioned Trump is not only worse, he's actively working to make it harder to resolve them going forward. Maybe it's unkind to say but voting Trump or 3d party in the presidential is an empty gesture that can have huge ramifications if it is widespread enough. You might say that just yours shouldn't matter in the grand scheme of things, and it's true that nobody blames a single drop of rain for a flood, but the damage happens regardless.

              Trump and his administration have been actively working at undermining and taking over every institution that could potentially stand in their way of allow a counter-reaction to their policies. Aside from the supreme court he's also been busy stuffing federal courts with new judges, generally people aligned with him, that is going to continue unless he goes out, and if it does it's going to make life even more difficult for all of his opponents.

              4 votes
            2. Velrei
              Link Parent
              ....no, they don't require 2/3 vote from the Senate. Did you miss the entire circus that happened last time we had one appointed? This whole post is a hot mess, but thinking another four years of...

              ....no, they don't require 2/3 vote from the Senate. Did you miss the entire circus that happened last time we had one appointed?

              This whole post is a hot mess, but thinking another four years of Trump are going to be good for anyone is ridiculous.

              Hell, Biden is probably going to die/retire in his first term anyway, and his VP is going to have to be more progressive to unite the party.

              3 votes
        6. Kuromantis
          (edited )
          Link Parent
          Is Biden really worse than/as bad as Trump as a president to you? He's sure as hell a worse looking candidate but Trump as president has done severe institutional damage to this country by purging...

          As crazy as it seems, if Bernie doesn't win the nomination I'm probably going to completely flip sides and vote for Trump or waste a vote on a third party. Biden is a terrible choice and getting him elected sets up the potential for 2 terms of a terrible candidate.

          Is Biden really worse than/as bad as Trump as a president to you? He's sure as hell a worse looking candidate but Trump as president has done severe institutional damage to this country by purging voter rolls and introducing stricter voting laws, meaning he's effectively a modern incarnation of Jim Crow, not to mention all the praise of places like Russia (which he colludes with) and China, who are authoritarian and censorious dictatorships. Economically he has tried to pass a Healthcare bill that would take an estimated 26 million Americans off Healthcare in 9 years, is a climate change denier and has let oil companies completely off the hook for their actions, has left many trade agreements with European nations and tried to damage NATO, the most important military alliance of the US and the democratic world. Socially he has passed multiple anti-abortion laws, is accused of sexual harassment (remember the pussy line from 4 years ago?), a pathological liar and a narcissist, and that's only beginning of the stuff we were already saying 4 years ago. Also, 'more people are going to realize the effects of the Trump administration' just doesn't seem to be likely, and if it was, we would have likely already seen it. (Also it sounds a tad like you would fall into this group). I will yield on the filibuster bit though.

          7 votes
      3. [2]
        tomf
        Link Parent
        I think Biden will be perfect for the job since he'll most likely set everything back to normal and live a bland, quiet presidency that may ultimately reunify the US by forgetting the division (to...

        I think Biden will be perfect for the job since he'll most likely set everything back to normal and live a bland, quiet presidency that may ultimately reunify the US by forgetting the division (to a point.)

        I'd love to see the US get Sanders, but I'm starting to feel that the country needs time to settle down before some other changes go into place. Vanilla Biden is a good option for this.

        5 votes
        1. moonbathers
          Link Parent
          The division we're seeing now started before Trump took office. Maybe some of the division is alleviated because Biden doesn't have the audacity to be a black man in a position of power like Obama...

          The division we're seeing now started before Trump took office. Maybe some of the division is alleviated because Biden doesn't have the audacity to be a black man in a position of power like Obama did, but Republicans aren't going to stop doing whatever they can to gain power in the name of hurting everyone who isn't them and/or making money.

          10 votes
      4. edward
        Link Parent
        Biden has absolutely no chance against Trump. The debates will be a disaster for him.

        Biden has absolutely no chance against Trump. The debates will be a disaster for him.

        4 votes
    2. [9]
      thundergolfer
      Link Parent
      Damn that graphic does not paint a good picture for progressive politicians. They'll continue to struggle hard if their supporters don't show up. Thank god for compulsory voting in Australia....

      Damn that graphic does not paint a good picture for progressive politicians. They'll continue to struggle hard if their supporters don't show up.

      Thank god for compulsory voting in Australia. People quibble about problems with compulsory voting, but it's clear in the USA that voluntary voting (plus significant barriers to voting) is terribly undemocratic and bad for the country.

      13 votes
      1. [8]
        dubteedub
        Link Parent
        Yeah, it is pretty rough. The Justice Dems just lost every single endorsed race on Super Tuesday and failed to flip a single seat in the 2018 midterms. I think the biggest factor hurting...

        Yeah, it is pretty rough.

        The Justice Dems just lost every single endorsed race on Super Tuesday and failed to flip a single seat in the 2018 midterms.

        I think the biggest factor hurting progressives is that so many of them want to be right instead of actually winning races. Winning takes some compromising, cajoling, and outreach to those who disagree with you to win them over. The message that I have seen from the most ardent progressives online is that if I don't agree with everything they say then I am LITERALLY KILLING THEM because I do not support their particular brand of politics.

        5 votes
        1. [7]
          thundergolfer
          Link Parent
          This may be what you're seeing online, and there's definitely lots of it online that I've seen, but it's not a factor in why progressives lose. A few things that are a few orders of magnitude more...

          The message that I have seen from the most ardent progressives online...

          This may be what you're seeing online, and there's definitely lots of it online that I've seen, but it's not a factor in why progressives lose.

          A few things that are a few orders of magnitude more important than online progressive purity messaging would be:

          • Money in politics
          • De-funding of public institutions
          • Television and the mass media apparatus built on it
          • Voter suppression
          • corporate destruction of labour organising
          4 votes
          1. [2]
            dubteedub
            Link Parent
            I think you raise some good points. I was certainly being a bit hyperbolic. I abhor money in politics and wish we had only publicly funded campaigns and restrictions preventing PAC activities....

            I think you raise some good points. I was certainly being a bit hyperbolic.

            Money in politics

            I abhor money in politics and wish we had only publicly funded campaigns and restrictions preventing PAC activities. That being said, Bernie outspent Biden by 7:1 on Super Tuesday. In fact, the only candidate that Biden outspent was Tulsi Gabbard.

            De-funding of public institutions

            I agree with you. We need a lot more critical thinking classes, we also need a much more thorough review of modern history in America. We tend to gloss over everything that happened between the Civil War and modern day other than a brief update on Reconstruction, WWI, WWII, and the lightest touch on Civil Rights. It is pretty disgusting how little awareness Americans have of what has been happening domestically over the last 100-150 years, particularly the repression of progressive political movements and undercurrent of white supremacy.

            It is certainly an uphill battle, but I think progressives do need to do a better job of messaging and outreach. They need to build a base that is inviting to outsiders rather than attacking them for not getting it sooner.

            2 votes
            1. thundergolfer
              Link Parent
              Not really an accurate way of looking at "money in politics". Biden benefits from an establishment that has spent maybe 100s of billions of dollars becoming powerful.

              That being said, Bernie outspent Biden by 7:1 on Super Tuesday. In fact, the only candidate that Biden outspent was Tulsi Gabbard.

              Not really an accurate way of looking at "money in politics". Biden benefits from an establishment that has spent maybe 100s of billions of dollars becoming powerful.

              1 vote
          2. [4]
            ibis
            Link Parent
            You’re right, but progressives are never going to combat those issues if they don’t grow their support base and spread their message, and they aren’t going to grow their support base by abusing...

            You’re right, but progressives are never going to combat those issues if they don’t grow their support base and spread their message, and they aren’t going to grow their support base by abusing everyone who disagrees with them.

            1 vote
            1. [3]
              thundergolfer
              Link Parent
              This doesn't happen to the level that it could be called a genuine problem for leftists. Some small minority of Neolibs do it, some small minority of conservatives do it, some small minority of...

              and they aren’t going to grow their support base by abusing everyone who disagrees with them.

              This doesn't happen to the level that it could be called a genuine problem for leftists. Some small minority of Neolibs do it, some small minority of conservatives do it, some small minority of leftists do it, etc. etc.

              1 vote
              1. [2]
                ibis
                (edited )
                Link Parent
                Maybe it speaks to my personal Twitter timeline, but I’ve seen it a lot. Like, I’m not saying that I think Bernie supporters are worse people - but there is definitely an online culture that is...

                Maybe it speaks to my personal Twitter timeline, but I’ve seen it a lot. Like, I’m not saying that I think Bernie supporters are worse people - but there is definitely an online culture that is super obnoxious amongst a big enough subset of his supporters to be visible and off-putting.

                And I’m saying that as a person politically aligned with Bernie.

                If I agree with them (at least on the fundamentals) and hate them, idk how they’re going to win anyone over who disagrees with them. Shockingly enough, “if you complain about being abused that means you hate poor people” and “people are dying and it’s your fault” are not convincing arguments.

                Like the replies to this tweet : https://twitter.com/aoc/status/1236533635290890240?s=21

                Something simple and fun became a political battle ground because AOC said something nice about Warren (who had already dropped out of the race by then).

                Edit: ffs https://twitter.com/thebusybeast/status/1236528776101715969?s=21

                1. thundergolfer
                  Link Parent
                  Twitter is awful for politics stuff. It's not real life. The snark is turned up to 11, and people love to throw shit. It frustrates me the amount of focus people will give to Twitter fights, which...

                  Twitter is awful for politics stuff. It's not real life. The snark is turned up to 11, and people love to throw shit. It frustrates me the amount of focus people will give to Twitter fights, which voters don't give a shit about at all.

    3. NaraVara
      Link Parent
      This was a two way risk. If we ended up with Sanders, especially this iteration of Sanders who actively alienated the affluent suburban vote instead of merely ignoring them, we may have seen...

      My biggest fear at this point is that Sanders supporters will decide to take their ball and go home come the general election if he loses the nomination. Hopefully if Biden gets the nomination he picks a VP candidate that will appeal to those on the left and helps bridge that gap.

      This was a two way risk. If we ended up with Sanders, especially this iteration of Sanders who actively alienated the affluent suburban vote instead of merely ignoring them, we may have seen ourselves getting wrecked down-ticket. It's a shame the primary process has settled on two extremely old and extremely polarizing candidates like this.

      If we were going to end up with a non-progressive I'd have preferred we had gotten one of the other vanilla flavored dudes early on, like Bullock or Bennett. I am just so damn tired of these old people bringing in their old-people baggage. It's like the '90s will never die. It feels like they're trying to resolve old conflicts instead of figuring out how to move us forward.

      Oh well. Hopefully he'll pick a decent VP who can play power behind the throne. I'm hearing some chatter about a Biden/Warren ticket, but from everything I've heard they deeply dislike each other. Who knows.

      6 votes
    4. [2]
      AugustusFerdinand
      Link Parent
      65% of delegates are up for grabs in the remaining primaries. Sanders trails Biden by 2.3% in the delegate assignment so far. Apparently that makes Nate Silver think there's near zero chance that...

      65% of delegates are up for grabs in the remaining primaries.

      Sanders trails Biden by 2.3% in the delegate assignment so far.

      Apparently that makes Nate Silver think there's near zero chance that Sanders can take the nomination for some reason...

      6 votes
      1. dubteedub
        Link Parent
        The issue is that Sanders will need to win huge margins in the remaining states in order to catch-up and the big states left are not good for Sanders. Bernie is polling nearly 30 points behind...

        The issue is that Sanders will need to win huge margins in the remaining states in order to catch-up and the big states left are not good for Sanders. Bernie is polling nearly 30 points behind Biden in Florida right now.

        https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/florida/

        4 votes
    5. NaraVara
      Link Parent
      That's the after-the-fact excuse they're making to justify their bad and alienating strategy as an innocent gamble that didn't pay off. In actuality, they were banking on the field being divided...

      I think this really underscores how badly Bernie was hurt by his gambit that young people would turn out and that he would bring in new voters.

      That's the after-the-fact excuse they're making to justify their bad and alienating strategy as an innocent gamble that didn't pay off. In actuality, they were banking on the field being divided like it was for the Republicans with Trump and ignored that the GOP apportions delegates as winner-take-all rather than proportionally so you can't just run away with it with a plurality.

      See here

      He’s counting on winning Iowa and New Hampshire, where he was already surprisingly strong in 2016, and hoping that Cory Booker and Kamala Harris will split the black electorate in South Carolina and give him a path to slip through there, too. And then, Sanders aides believe, he’ll easily win enough delegates to put him into contention at the convention. They say they don’t need him to get more than 30 percent to make that happen.
      He’s counting on winning Iowa and New Hampshire, where he was already surprisingly strong in 2016, and hoping that Cory Booker and Kamala Harris will split the black electorate in South Carolina and give him a path to slip through there, too. And then, Sanders aides believe, he’ll easily win enough delegates to put him into contention at the convention. They say they don’t need him to get more than 30 percent to make that happen.

      Another thing I've noticed that's different from 2016 is that I think a lot of Sanders folks from back then got plugged into a lot of Leftist media (e.g. podcasts, YouTubers, Twitter follows) that has gotten them into a bit of insular bubble. They get way more spun up on things than it appropriate and the echo chamber effects are strong. I think they've lost touch with general appearances as a result and it results in most attempts at "outreach" or "expansion" ending up just preaching to the choir.

      6 votes
    6. [3]
      vegai
      Link Parent
      Then they will have deserved 4 more years of Trump, I suppose. Too bad the whole world has to suffer from it, not just them.

      My biggest fear at this point is that Sanders supporters will decide to take their ball and go home come the general election if he loses the nomination.

      Then they will have deserved 4 more years of Trump, I suppose. Too bad the whole world has to suffer from it, not just them.

      4 votes
      1. [2]
        Loire
        Link Parent
        Considering the positively anemic turn out amongst young voters, who I assume are the most likely Bernie or Bust candidates, I wonder how many voters will actually stay home come the general. Not...

        Considering the positively anemic turn out amongst young voters, who I assume are the most likely Bernie or Bust candidates, I wonder how many voters will actually stay home come the general.

        Not going to affect much if they were never going to show up in the first place.

        4 votes
        1. thundergolfer
          Link Parent
          If the youth stay home in the general election, "Bernie or Bust" young people won't be a significant portion of them. The salient divide is "interested / disinterested" people. Most youth that...

          ...I wonder how many voters will actually stay home come the general.

          If the youth stay home in the general election, "Bernie or Bust" young people won't be a significant portion of them. The salient divide is "interested / disinterested" people. Most youth that don't vote aren't die-hard Bernie supporters. They're just people that don't care enough about participation in electoral politics.

          4 votes