12 votes

What to make of those new US Senate polls that have Democrats way ahead

Posted by skybrian
Tags: politics, us senate, polling, usa, democratic party, author.nathaniel rakich, source.fivethirtyeight
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-those-new-senate-polls-that-have-democrats-way-ahead/

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Authors
Nathaniel Rakich
Published
May 12 2020
Word count
786 words

4 comments

  1. [2]
    skybrian
    Link

    Before you read any further, let’s get one thing straight: It’s still pretty early to trust general-election polls. In addition to the small but significant error inherent in polls taken six months before Election Day, the coronavirus pandemic has made the fall political environment extremely uncertain. But some recent Senate polls have been so eye-popping that we’re compelled to write about them — if only to sound a note of caution.

    Those polls imply a Democratic wave of truly epic proportions.

    14 votes
    1. babypuncher
      Link Parent
      I just hope people don't get complacent and decide that it's a sure thing.

      I just hope people don't get complacent and decide that it's a sure thing.

      6 votes
  2. goodbetterbestbested
    Link
    The main reason you should be skeptical is buried a bit further than the initial disclaimer:

    The main reason you should be skeptical is buried a bit further than the initial disclaimer:

    all four polls were conducted online

    according to Nate Cohn of The New York Times’s The Upshot, online polls of states, especially small ones like Montana, are a largely unproven medium

    7 votes
  3. Kuromantis
    (edited )
    Link
    This seems to further validate the trend that after Trump won in 2016 and turned out to be one of the worst presidents in US history and be validated by his party anyway/in spite of this everyone...

    This seems to further validate the trend that after Trump won in 2016 and turned out to be one of the worst presidents in US history and be validated by his party anyway/in spite of this everyone left of Fox News has collectively awakened to get him and his party out accordingly.

    As for the actual article a pretty decent tl;dr seems to be 'there aren't nearly enough polls to truly confirm this yet, albeit the fact that these polls have turned up such results at all signals that very real shit might be coming for the GOP.'
    Given Trump's presidency, his ties to Russians, their track record on letting people vote and accepting the results and their willingness to compromise since (presumably) Mitch McConnell, the GOP will do some real shit to stop it.

    4 votes