It’s not up to Pelosi, though, right? It’s ultimately up to Pence and the cabinet members to invoke Section 3 of the 25th amendment. How does Pelosi putting a timeline on it do anything when she...
It’s not up to Pelosi, though, right? It’s ultimately up to Pence and the cabinet members to invoke Section 3 of the 25th amendment. How does Pelosi putting a timeline on it do anything when she is not lawfully granted the power to invoke Section 3? Pelosi can only offer support of invocation.
Edit:
If the concern is she isn’t putting a timeline on the “if you don’t invoke the 25th, then we’ll impeach in the House”, that timeline is basically already drawn at this point, right? Pence and the cabinet only have until January 20th to invoke, so if not by then, the effect will be the same: Trump will no longer be president. I have no idea if a US president can be impeached after they leave office. Is that on the table?
I don't think that is really true though. Can Pelosi invoke the 25th Amendment? No. However she can say "My timeline is Mike Pence has until January 10th to invoke the 25th Amendment. If by that...
I don't think that is really true though. Can Pelosi invoke the 25th Amendment? No. However she can say "My timeline is Mike Pence has until January 10th to invoke the 25th Amendment. If by that time he has failed to do so we will be force to vote on Impeachment based on the articles of impeachment that are currently being drafted/have been drafted by Ilhan Omar."
Does Pence have to listen? No. But it puts a timeline of "Either you deal with this or I will."
The big driving force and the difference between Impeachment and the 25th Amendment will be in 2024. From my understanding, if 25A is invoked, Trump can run again in 2024 and you know his cult will follow him. Impeachment means he can't run again.
I guess the transition date of the 20th makes it all not so high stakes in my mind. Personally I think they should impeach him again anyway for the call to Georgia SoS. It’s their duty to impeach...
I guess the transition date of the 20th makes it all not so high stakes in my mind. Personally I think they should impeach him again anyway for the call to Georgia SoS. It’s their duty to impeach in the House. I don’t think it should be used as a threat over Pence’s head. Either Trump deserves to be impeached or he doesn’t. The senate isn’t going to convict and remove him before the transition anyway, so it seems like this isn’t a big deal either way. We already saw that Trump is essentially politically immune from the currently sitting Congress. And after his term expires, presumably his legal jeopardy will come into question, rather than his political jeopardy.
Edit:
Impeachment means he can't run again.
Impeachment and successful conviction in the Senate. I don’t think that’s realistic given what happened with the first impeachment. No matter how ashamed the Rs may currently be, I don’t think they are entirely prepared to actually oust Trump and risk alienating his base (which seems to be finally fracturing the Rs).
I think it is slightly different this time around because the prevention of holding future office only requires a majority vote not 2/3s that Impeachment requires.
I think it is slightly different this time around because the prevention of holding future office only requires a majority vote not 2/3s that Impeachment requires.
Well that opens the question of which senators you believe will actually vote to prevent Trump from running again. I can imagine maybe Romney. Even him I’m not sure. The votes just aren’t there,...
Well that opens the question of which senators you believe will actually vote to prevent Trump from running again. I can imagine maybe Romney. Even him I’m not sure. The votes just aren’t there, even for a simple majority AFAICT.
I am very confident Romney would. He voted yes for 2/3 articles last time and watching any moment of him on camera yesterday he is fuckin livid and done. Romney I would say is possibly the last...
I am very confident Romney would. He voted yes for 2/3 articles last time and watching any moment of him on camera yesterday he is fuckin livid and done. Romney I would say is possibly the last Republican I slightly respect*. After that? Maaayyyyybbeeeee Murkowski? Mike Lee? Rand Paul? Those 3 are people I wouldn't expect to vote for impeachment, but if impeachment did pass I would guess the yays would come from some subset of those three.
*I want to be clear here that I don't agree with Romney's political views and in fact think many of them indicate he is a bad guy. I think his politics are very bad and hurt a lot of people and if Baker didn't suck so much ass I'd be happy he isn't the MA gov anymore. But! He's the only one seemingly willing to put country over party.
But how is that in any way pressuring Pence? That implies he would prefer to be the vehicle through which to remove Trump. And I have no idea why he'd want to be that. If anything, when presented...
But how is that in any way pressuring Pence? That implies he would prefer to be the vehicle through which to remove Trump. And I have no idea why he'd want to be that.
If anything, when presented with that time line, he'd be like alright, sounds good to me, not like I want this controversy.
For my followup here I want to start by saying: I really don't think any of these matter. I'm taking stabs in the dark based on what I'm reading. I think Trump needs to be out like... today, but...
For my followup here I want to start by saying: I really don't think any of these matter. I'm taking stabs in the dark based on what I'm reading. I think Trump needs to be out like... today, but I'm not sure that these will do anything. Its one of those "I think it matters in an era where political norms mean something"
From my lawyer friend:
Article I Section VII clarifies that removal is not the only punishment impeachment can bring. It reads: “Judgment in Cases of impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States.” This clause shows definitively that the Senate can inflict a penalty that would prevent Trump from holding office again. Under established Senate practice, that vote to disqualify would require only a simple majority vote in the Senate, less than the two-thirds vote required for conviction.
I think that makes it slightly preferable to use the 25thA since he could still hold office if removed for that reason vs he can't if impeached and since the form of Impeachment they'd do would only require a simple majority not 2/3 it would be much more likely than the 2/3. A couple R's might flip (looking at Romney on that).
I guess the other logic, which I think borders on delusion at this point, is maybe people think that Pence will feel pressure to invoke 25A to save face for him or the GOP? Like at the last second when most the damage has been done invoke 25A and say "LOOK SEE WE DID EVERYTHING WE COULD" and hope time washes away the rest. I think if they did invoke 25A that is basically what would happen is eventually people would edit history to make it look favorable to him/GOP. I think the whole thing falls flat on its face since it is nearly fact at this point that the GOP doesn't give a singular fuck and neither do Trump supporters so why the fuck would the start caring now.
EDIT: So the more I talk to my friend the more convinced I am my last point was right. The 25A vs Impeachment thing is a "Handle your shit or we will" and is a way to give Pence and his cabinet (and I guess by extension the GOP) an out of "look, we eventually acted". Though, as I previously stated, I don't think any of them will give a flying fuck. But I think Pelosi is in a tough place. Democrats are going to be pissed if she doesn't seem like she's doing everything in her power to get Trump out quickly. The flip side in my view is that this is just another instance where Democrats (at large not just officials) still think that the GOP is going to have some see the light moment and suddenly give a fuck that what they are doing is evil
Speaker Pelosi just now: “I join the Senate Democratic leader in calling on the vice president to remove this president by immediately invoking the 25th amendment. If the vice president and...
Speaker Pelosi just now: “I join the Senate Democratic leader in calling on the vice president to remove this president by immediately invoking the 25th amendment. If the vice president and cabinet do not act the Congress may be prepared to move forward with impeachment.”
Impeachment means he can't run for elected office again and requires only a simple majority vote (as opposed to immediate removal, which needs 2/3). I think it would be foolish to assume Trump...
Impeachment means he can't run for elected office again and requires only a simple majority vote (as opposed to immediate removal, which needs 2/3). I think it would be foolish to assume Trump won't run in 2024 assuming he hasn't died by then. There was gallows and people running around the capitol yesterday trying to find Mike Pence to hang him as a traitor. MIKE. PENCE. Anything that prevents Trump from being able to be elected back or selected back into the government is imperative because if there is a way, his followers definitely have the will.
Edit: Sorry, I misremembered. They wanted to hang him from Capitol Hill Tree, not the gallows. There were also gallows there, but the quote from people present said they were going to hang him from the tree. Who knows. I don't really think it really matters how they publicly murder the VP in front of the Capitol Building.
Too bad she's always all bark and no teeth
It’s not up to Pelosi, though, right? It’s ultimately up to Pence and the cabinet members to invoke Section 3 of the 25th amendment. How does Pelosi putting a timeline on it do anything when she is not lawfully granted the power to invoke Section 3? Pelosi can only offer support of invocation.
Edit:
If the concern is she isn’t putting a timeline on the “if you don’t invoke the 25th, then we’ll impeach in the House”, that timeline is basically already drawn at this point, right? Pence and the cabinet only have until January 20th to invoke, so if not by then, the effect will be the same: Trump will no longer be president. I have no idea if a US president can be impeached after they leave office. Is that on the table?
I don't think that is really true though. Can Pelosi invoke the 25th Amendment? No. However she can say "My timeline is Mike Pence has until January 10th to invoke the 25th Amendment. If by that time he has failed to do so we will be force to vote on Impeachment based on the articles of impeachment that are currently being drafted/have been drafted by Ilhan Omar."
Does Pence have to listen? No. But it puts a timeline of "Either you deal with this or I will."
The big driving force and the difference between Impeachment and the 25th Amendment will be in 2024. From my understanding, if 25A is invoked, Trump can run again in 2024 and you know his cult will follow him. Impeachment means he can't run again.
I guess the transition date of the 20th makes it all not so high stakes in my mind. Personally I think they should impeach him again anyway for the call to Georgia SoS. It’s their duty to impeach in the House. I don’t think it should be used as a threat over Pence’s head. Either Trump deserves to be impeached or he doesn’t. The senate isn’t going to convict and remove him before the transition anyway, so it seems like this isn’t a big deal either way. We already saw that Trump is essentially politically immune from the currently sitting Congress. And after his term expires, presumably his legal jeopardy will come into question, rather than his political jeopardy.
Edit:
Impeachment and successful conviction in the Senate. I don’t think that’s realistic given what happened with the first impeachment. No matter how ashamed the Rs may currently be, I don’t think they are entirely prepared to actually oust Trump and risk alienating his base (which seems to be finally fracturing the Rs).
I think it is slightly different this time around because the prevention of holding future office only requires a majority vote not 2/3s that Impeachment requires.
Well that opens the question of which senators you believe will actually vote to prevent Trump from running again. I can imagine maybe Romney. Even him I’m not sure. The votes just aren’t there, even for a simple majority AFAICT.
I am very confident Romney would. He voted yes for 2/3 articles last time and watching any moment of him on camera yesterday he is fuckin livid and done. Romney I would say is possibly the last Republican I slightly respect*. After that? Maaayyyyybbeeeee Murkowski? Mike Lee? Rand Paul? Those 3 are people I wouldn't expect to vote for impeachment, but if impeachment did pass I would guess the yays would come from some subset of those three.
*I want to be clear here that I don't agree with Romney's political views and in fact think many of them indicate he is a bad guy. I think his politics are very bad and hurt a lot of people and if Baker didn't suck so much ass I'd be happy he isn't the MA gov anymore. But! He's the only one seemingly willing to put country over party.
But how is that in any way pressuring Pence? That implies he would prefer to be the vehicle through which to remove Trump. And I have no idea why he'd want to be that.
If anything, when presented with that time line, he'd be like alright, sounds good to me, not like I want this controversy.
For my followup here I want to start by saying: I really don't think any of these matter. I'm taking stabs in the dark based on what I'm reading. I think Trump needs to be out like... today, but I'm not sure that these will do anything. Its one of those "I think it matters in an era where political norms mean something"
From my lawyer friend:
I think that makes it slightly preferable to use the 25thA since he could still hold office if removed for that reason vs he can't if impeached and since the form of Impeachment they'd do would only require a simple majority not 2/3 it would be much more likely than the 2/3. A couple R's might flip (looking at Romney on that).
I guess the other logic, which I think borders on delusion at this point, is maybe people think that Pence will feel pressure to invoke 25A to save face for him or the GOP? Like at the last second when most the damage has been done invoke 25A and say "LOOK SEE WE DID EVERYTHING WE COULD" and hope time washes away the rest. I think if they did invoke 25A that is basically what would happen is eventually people would edit history to make it look favorable to him/GOP. I think the whole thing falls flat on its face since it is nearly fact at this point that the GOP doesn't give a singular fuck and neither do Trump supporters so why the fuck would the start caring now.
EDIT: So the more I talk to my friend the more convinced I am my last point was right. The 25A vs Impeachment thing is a "Handle your shit or we will" and is a way to give Pence and his cabinet (and I guess by extension the GOP) an out of "look, we eventually acted". Though, as I previously stated, I don't think any of them will give a flying fuck. But I think Pelosi is in a tough place. Democrats are going to be pissed if she doesn't seem like she's doing everything in her power to get Trump out quickly. The flip side in my view is that this is just another instance where Democrats (at large not just officials) still think that the GOP is going to have some see the light moment and suddenly give a fuck that what they are doing is evil
Speaker Pelosi just now: “I join the Senate Democratic leader in calling on the vice president to remove this president by immediately invoking the 25th amendment. If the vice president and cabinet do not act the Congress may be prepared to move forward with impeachment.”
https://twitter.com/DaviSusan/status/1347259215040172032?s=19
Impeachment means he can't run for elected office again and requires only a simple majority vote (as opposed to immediate removal, which needs 2/3). I think it would be foolish to assume Trump won't run in 2024 assuming he hasn't died by then. There was gallows and people running around the capitol yesterday trying to find Mike Pence to hang him as a traitor. MIKE. PENCE. Anything that prevents Trump from being able to be elected back or selected back into the government is imperative because if there is a way, his followers definitely have the will.
Edit: Sorry, I misremembered. They wanted to hang him from Capitol Hill Tree, not the gallows. There were also gallows there, but the quote from people present said they were going to hang him from the tree. Who knows. I don't really think it really matters how they publicly murder the VP in front of the Capitol Building.