8 votes

With a budget cut of 95%, the already-delayed 2021 Census in Brazil is being canceled entirely

Posted by Kuromantis
Tags: politics, brazil, government, ibge, coronaviruses.covid19, census
https://www.ragionierieprevidenza.it/?p=25183

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Title
Brazil, without a defined budget the 2021 Census is canceled - Ragionieri e previdenza
Authors
Published
Apr 26 2021
Word count
1145 words

6 comments

  1. [2]
    Kuromantis
    (edited )
    Link
    This sucks, particularly for me as someone who was really excited to see a census as a kid. This reminds me of when @mrbig said the Brazilian govt will do what they want to the data to get it to...

    This sucks, particularly for me as someone who was really excited to see a census as a kid. This reminds me of when @mrbig said the Brazilian govt will do what they want to the data to get it to say what the govt wants to hear and I wasn't really truly convinced. Given the budget cut of 95% of the supposed money, it's pretty fair to say this was their plan.

    The Demographic Census of the population of Brazil was scheduled for the year 2020, but due to the pandemic of COVID-19 the survey was postponed to this year, however, the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) suffered a great deal budget cut, which resulted in the survey being canceled. Congress decided to allocate only R $ 71 million for research, less than 5% of the agreed cost, which was around 2 billion reais.

    In an interview with Dire agency, the former president of IBGE Roberto Olinto Ramos spoke about the importance of the Demographic Census and about whether or not the survey was carried out this year. According to Ramos, the budget cut is unjustifiable and that the census is of fundamental importance for the planning of the country’s policies at all levels, national, state and municipal. “The operation of the Census for any country is extremely fundamental for any subsequent data generation.

    However, there is one counter-argument:

    However, Roberto Olinto points out that it is necessary to assess whether this year is the ideal time for the Census. According to the researcher and former president of IBGE, the argument used last year for not carrying out the research remains this year, as the pandemic is at its worst in the country. In addition, Ramos points out that the pandemic temporarily changed the demographic distribution in the country, in addition to income and family organization, and if the census was carried out it could bring data without the necessary precision.

    Personally, I do think this is a reasonable enough take to argue about it, but I feel the US's censuses conduction is a decent counter counter-argument, albeit admittedly not a particularly strong one given Brazil is a far cry from the US.

    3 votes
    1. mrbig
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      Reading my predictions now I was clearly on a speculative mood. Things make sense but are way over the top. Like something that is reasonable and would probably make a good novel but is unlikely...

      Reading my predictions now I was clearly on a speculative mood. Things make sense but are way over the top. Like something that is reasonable and would probably make a good novel but is unlikely to actually happen :P

      2 votes
  2. [4]
    mrbig
    Link
    The Census is a huge effort that requires millions of physical visits to households. I cannot in good conscience support its execution right now. Let's hope it happens as soon as the pandemic is over.

    The Census is a huge effort that requires millions of physical visits to households. I cannot in good conscience support its execution right now. Let's hope it happens as soon as the pandemic is over.

    3 votes
    1. [4]
      Comment deleted by author
      Link Parent
      1. [3]
        mrbig
        Link Parent
        I don't know. A single researcher can visit, I don't know, 100 houses a week? If said researcher got COVID, won't he become a powerful spread vector even with precautions? Multiply that by...

        I don't know. A single researcher can visit, I don't know, 100 houses a week? If said researcher got COVID, won't he become a powerful spread vector even with precautions? Multiply that by thousands of researchers and millions of visits. Don't you think that could have a sizeable negative effect?

        This does not even take into account that many researchers might not follow all the precautions.

        2 votes
        1. [3]
          Comment deleted by author
          Link Parent
          1. [2]
            mrbig
            (edited )
            Link Parent
            I worked for IBGE (the Brazilian government agency that makes the census). I did not work on the census, but in other permanent research that was similar for the relevant purposes. I know a bit...

            I worked for IBGE (the Brazilian government agency that makes the census). I did not work on the census, but in other permanent research that was similar for the relevant purposes. I know a bit about how the census works in Brazil.

            Our census is actually a questionaire that can take a few minutes to answer*. The PDA we use(d) is super slow and buggy which makes the process even slower.

            Most of the time you have to enter the house. It's hot outside (in my city, temperatures ranging from 30°C to 35°C are common...) and dangerous depending on location. I witnessed a few shootouts, just to give you an idea.

            People engage in conversation (we're Brazilians, so we're warm and inviting...), and I was offered lunch quite a few times.

            Yeah, I think it would be tremendously bad to have a census now.

            * I just checked and the current questionnaire contains 76 questions...

            2 votes
            1. [2]
              Comment deleted by author
              Link Parent
              1. mrbig
                Link Parent
                I concede that, with another leadership, political, and social climate, conducting the Census right now might not increase our calamitous state by a large margin. But now we're talking alternate...

                I concede that, with another leadership, political, and social climate, conducting the Census right now might not increase our calamitous state by a large margin. But now we're talking alternate universes :P

                2 votes