I think Ukraine is going to be forced to cede the land Russia took to Russia for peace. Trump seems to prefer this approach, and Ukraine has little to no leverage in this situation. Sucks, but...
One idea within U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's team for ending Russia's war involves delaying Kyiv's NATO membership for at least 20 years in exchange for continued arms supplies, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Nov. 6, citing three sources close to Trump.
Trump, who won the presidential vote on Nov. 5, has repeatedly said that he would end the war within "24 hours" and get the U.S. "out" of Ukraine.
Earlier media reports and statements from Trump's inner circle indicated this would entail freezing the war on the current front lines and creating a demilitarized zone in the east, a claim also supported by the WSJ's sources.
I think Ukraine is going to be forced to cede the land Russia took to Russia for peace. Trump seems to prefer this approach, and Ukraine has little to no leverage in this situation.
Sucks, but what can you do? Looks like Ukraine is going to be a bit smaller on maps now.
The “postpone for X years” thing might be a reasonable concession if it also guarantees NATO membership after X years and there’s reason to believe that Russia won’t attack again before that. (I’m...
The “postpone for X years” thing might be a reasonable concession if it also guarantees NATO membership after X years and there’s reason to believe that Russia won’t attack again before that.
(I’m thinking of Britain’s 99 year lease on Hong Kong, which did, eventually, result in Hong Kong going back to China.)
What would ever lead us to believe Russia wouldn't attack again besides a pact like NATO? Realistically whats even the point of not letting them join NATO if its not to so that Russia can waltz in...
and there’s reason to believe that Russia won’t attack again before that.
What would ever lead us to believe Russia wouldn't attack again besides a pact like NATO? Realistically whats even the point of not letting them join NATO if its not to so that Russia can waltz in there some other time?
Regardless of all that, I don't see Russia willingly walking away from this conflict unless they can "win" some victory or if they just get beaten too hard and are forced to walk away.
I’m thinking of it as a fudge that lets both sides claim they got something. Ukraine builds up its defenses with NATO’s help and does the work of integrating with NATO, but technically didn’t join...
I’m thinking of it as a fudge that lets both sides claim they got something. Ukraine builds up its defenses with NATO’s help and does the work of integrating with NATO, but technically didn’t join NATO yet. Russia claims a win, but stops making threats over Ukraine (eventually) joining NATO.
It would better for Ukraine if they joined NATO now as part of a peace agreement, but negotiating that might be harder.
A question is who gains from a ceasefire if the war starts up again.
What is Ukraine's win here? Like, what does non-NATO "integrating with NATO" actually get Ukraine? It's a zero-sum game so they can't both gain. If Ukraine's benefit is military strength, I think...
What is Ukraine's win here? Like, what does non-NATO "integrating with NATO" actually get Ukraine? It's a zero-sum game so they can't both gain.
If Ukraine's benefit is military strength, I think that doesn't make sense - the metric that matters is Ukraine's strength relative to Russia, and Russia's position is as weak as it can ever be right now - Ukraine's current attritional strategy is built on that. If Russia pauses the war and spends 5,10 years building it up (and stockpiling western electronics, especially), then it'll have more materiel than Ukraine and more manpower (if only because they'll spend 10 years on anti-Ukraine propaganda, whereas right now Putin can't raise another draft for fear of political collapse).
Not to mention, Ukraine is already doing NATO integration legwork - Ukraine's goal is to join NATO, they want to make it as smooth as possible and have every reason to make sure they're up to spec ASAP, since they're already fighting with NATO materiel with NATO trainers with NATO infosec support with ammo from NATO logistics organisations.
If Ukraine's benefit is a Russian guarantee of peace, well they already had that - a Russian guarantee of peace plus $5 will buy you a cup of coffee. The only guarantee of peace is joining NATO, or accepting annexation, or acquiring nukes.
Ukraine can claim they benefit, but it would be obvious bullshit so I don't see how Ukraine would benefit from claiming to benefit.
And honestly, this isn't even about Ukraine - if the west permits Ukraine to be all-but-annexed despite Russia clearly being the imperialist unprovoked belligerent here, then independent countries around the world will want to rush for nukes. That's disastrous even if Russia never invades Ukraine again.
Ukraine's win is that they lock in the current borders before it gets worse, and it'll get worse without US military aid. That's not much of a win, but sometimes you're in a situation where there...
Ukraine's win is that they lock in the current borders before it gets worse, and it'll get worse without US military aid. That's not much of a win, but sometimes you're in a situation where there are no wins, just the least worst loss.
I don't remember if he explicitly said it or just implied it anymore but Putin basically wants the rest of the Soviet Union back as part of Russia. He may not actuallywant all of it, but he sees...
I don't remember if he explicitly said it or just implied it anymore but Putin basically wants the rest of the Soviet Union back as part of Russia. He may not actuallywant all of it, but he sees it as his to take if he wants. And this wasn't his first stab at it either.
The man's not immortal (though how these men last so long I don't know) but I'd have serious doubts about whether he'd feel bound by any deal.
I'm convinced this is Trump's play. Get a meeting with Zelenskyy, make it clear that all arms shipments are stopping now, and tell him in no uncertain terms to accept surrender to Russia or the US...
I'm convinced this is Trump's play. Get a meeting with Zelenskyy, make it clear that all arms shipments are stopping now, and tell him in no uncertain terms to accept surrender to Russia or the US will make things far worse somehow.
Trump isn't President until after the oath at noon on 20 Jan 25. Biden, assuming he's still coherent, still has a few months to act. One thing that occurred to me is Biden could deploy active...
Trump isn't President until after the oath at noon on 20 Jan 25. Biden, assuming he's still coherent, still has a few months to act.
One thing that occurred to me is Biden could deploy active forces if he wanted, and push for a resolution by dislodging Russian troops from Ukraine's borders. Or he could move up a number of arms and equipment shipments and simply dump them over to Ukrainian control now, before the transition of power and he loses the ability to give those orders.
The problem with a deployment is the same one that's already been in play; escalation. Which is a whole conversation, concern. Biden, again if he's still there, came up in the Cold War. Russia might be a shadow of a shadow of the USSR, but it still has an extensive nuclear arsenal that is the sole complicating factor in any popular solutions you'll hear. Such as my mention of deploying troops to directly assist Ukraine.
Biden's earliest comments, when people clamored for more direct US intervention as a savior (or whatever) highlighted the concern of Russia escalating. That was years ago, and the situation is just worse now because Putin won't allow himself to be seen as week. He is, because Russia is, but that has no bearing on the lies he props up to himself, his people, and his country. Put him in a corner and the geo-strategic concern is he'll lash out simply because he lost. Again, it's a whole thing with no simple, clear, easy answer.
The situation's extremely messy. Always has been. Hasn't changed.
Ukraine has until 20 Jan to figure out if they can continue without being able to expect any real US support (assuming Trump will cut them off cold, as he's proclaimed he will), or find another path forward. But Trump can't do anything yet except issue press releases.
You really want Biden to send American kids to go die in Ukraine? Biden escalating the war his last two months in office would make things considerably worse for the Ukrainian people. It would be...
One thing that occurred to me is Biden could deploy active forces if he wanted, and push for a resolution by dislodging Russian troops from Ukraine's borders
You really want Biden to send American kids to go die in Ukraine? Biden escalating the war his last two months in office would make things considerably worse for the Ukrainian people. It would be extremely unpopular among the American people, the majority of whom want nothing to with this war.
The benefit to Ukraine is that the war would be over. They are losing. People who lose wars typically lose territory. It sucks but that is reality.
Without NATO membership, Ukraine has no peace - only a ceasefire. Russia's promises of peace are as meaningless as they were in 2014/2022, and US deterrence will be even more meaningless than they...
Without NATO membership, Ukraine has no peace - only a ceasefire. Russia's promises of peace are as meaningless as they were in 2014/2022, and US deterrence will be even more meaningless than they are now if the US force Ukraine to cede territory that US themselves were supposedly deterring Russia from taking.
Russia essentially has a veto on NATO membership, as NATO membership requires there to be no disagreements on ownership with land on date of joining. Russia can trivially make anyone fail that requirement simply by claiming to own some of that country's land. So, a promise of future membership in exchange for a Russian ceasefire is useless.
And honestly, what's the difference to Russia between NATO membership now and NATO membership later, if Russia will actually honor its ceasefire? It's not like Ukraine will invade Russia, Ukraine's army is struggling to even defend let alone make net gains, and Russia has nukes.
Fuck it, Biden should send US troops to engage Russia inside Ukraine. Who gives a fuck about nuclear war if the planet is already on fire and Trump is going to be president again, right guys?
Fuck it, Biden should send US troops to engage Russia inside Ukraine. Who gives a fuck about nuclear war if the planet is already on fire and Trump is going to be president again, right guys?
Well, to be honest, I’d rather avoid nuclear war. edit: also, I feel like you should ask the people you’re sending into that meat grinder. The us military is composed of people in the end, it’s...
Well, to be honest, I’d rather avoid nuclear war.
edit: also, I feel like you should ask the people you’re sending into that meat grinder. The us military is composed of people in the end, it’s not just some tool.
On one hand, better to deploy and try to wrap this thing up before January. On the other hand, Trump will try to skip the funeral bills if you die too close to January. On another hand, with the...
On one hand, better to deploy and try to wrap this thing up before January.
On the other hand, Trump will try to skip the funeral bills if you die too close to January.
On another hand, with the likelihood that the VA will be crippled or dismantled under project 2025, probably best we don't get any more service connected disabilities.
On a fourth hand, Servicemember who had access to the project 2025 manifesto before the election still voted for Donald Trump... So, fuck 'em in that case.
Ehhh, I think there is a reasonable chance that not engaging now just makes a larger future conflict more likely. Fight Russia now when they are weak, or fight Russia later when they are stronger....
Ehhh, I think there is a reasonable chance that not engaging now just makes a larger future conflict more likely. Fight Russia now when they are weak, or fight Russia later when they are stronger. Not to mention how emboldened China is going to be when they learn that they can take Taiwan with impunity.
I promise you'll never feel more alive than when you're running through the ruins of your city streets, trying to find a place to hide from the packs of mutant dogs and your slightly less mutant...
I promise you'll never feel more alive than when you're running through the ruins of your city streets, trying to find a place to hide from the packs of mutant dogs and your slightly less mutant fellow survivors
They aren't complacent, most if not all military spending is up, but they sure are waffling. Most of them were waiting what would happen with this election as well.
They aren't complacent, most if not all military spending is up, but they sure are waffling. Most of them were waiting what would happen with this election as well.
Unironically, yes, that might be where we're headed. Anyone in the EU who doesn't eat frog, lost the credibility of their nuclear umbrella on Tuesday. Expect to see moves in that direction....
Unironically, yes, that might be where we're headed. Anyone in the EU who doesn't eat frog, lost the credibility of their nuclear umbrella on Tuesday. Expect to see moves in that direction. Perhaps also from east Asian countries.
Trying to engage with this news seriously for a moment, I haven't completely given up hope that Trump might make some unhinged decisions that actually lead to sending more weapons and aid to...
Trying to engage with this news seriously for a moment, I haven't completely given up hope that Trump might make some unhinged decisions that actually lead to sending more weapons and aid to Ukraine. I wouldn't bet on that, and it would run counter to just about every other instance of Trump's foreign policy. However, I do think there's a non-zero chance that while attempting to enforce peace between Ukraine and Russia, something between Trump and Putin "breaks" for lack of a better word, and Trump decides to swing some dick in Ukraine's favor.
Or maybe that's just the hopium I'm huffing, your choice
I think Ukraine is going to be forced to cede the land Russia took to Russia for peace. Trump seems to prefer this approach, and Ukraine has little to no leverage in this situation.
Sucks, but what can you do? Looks like Ukraine is going to be a bit smaller on maps now.
The “postpone for X years” thing might be a reasonable concession if it also guarantees NATO membership after X years and there’s reason to believe that Russia won’t attack again before that.
(I’m thinking of Britain’s 99 year lease on Hong Kong, which did, eventually, result in Hong Kong going back to China.)
What would ever lead us to believe Russia wouldn't attack again besides a pact like NATO? Realistically whats even the point of not letting them join NATO if its not to so that Russia can waltz in there some other time?
Regardless of all that, I don't see Russia willingly walking away from this conflict unless they can "win" some victory or if they just get beaten too hard and are forced to walk away.
I’m thinking of it as a fudge that lets both sides claim they got something. Ukraine builds up its defenses with NATO’s help and does the work of integrating with NATO, but technically didn’t join NATO yet. Russia claims a win, but stops making threats over Ukraine (eventually) joining NATO.
It would better for Ukraine if they joined NATO now as part of a peace agreement, but negotiating that might be harder.
A question is who gains from a ceasefire if the war starts up again.
(Anyway, it’s not up to us.)
What is Ukraine's win here? Like, what does non-NATO "integrating with NATO" actually get Ukraine? It's a zero-sum game so they can't both gain.
If Ukraine's benefit is military strength, I think that doesn't make sense - the metric that matters is Ukraine's strength relative to Russia, and Russia's position is as weak as it can ever be right now - Ukraine's current attritional strategy is built on that. If Russia pauses the war and spends 5,10 years building it up (and stockpiling western electronics, especially), then it'll have more materiel than Ukraine and more manpower (if only because they'll spend 10 years on anti-Ukraine propaganda, whereas right now Putin can't raise another draft for fear of political collapse).
Not to mention, Ukraine is already doing NATO integration legwork - Ukraine's goal is to join NATO, they want to make it as smooth as possible and have every reason to make sure they're up to spec ASAP, since they're already fighting with NATO materiel with NATO trainers with NATO infosec support with ammo from NATO logistics organisations.
If Ukraine's benefit is a Russian guarantee of peace, well they already had that - a Russian guarantee of peace plus $5 will buy you a cup of coffee. The only guarantee of peace is joining NATO, or accepting annexation, or acquiring nukes.
Ukraine can claim they benefit, but it would be obvious bullshit so I don't see how Ukraine would benefit from claiming to benefit.
And honestly, this isn't even about Ukraine - if the west permits Ukraine to be all-but-annexed despite Russia clearly being the imperialist unprovoked belligerent here, then independent countries around the world will want to rush for nukes. That's disastrous even if Russia never invades Ukraine again.
Ukraine's win is that they lock in the current borders before it gets worse, and it'll get worse without US military aid. That's not much of a win, but sometimes you're in a situation where there are no wins, just the least worst loss.
I don't remember if he explicitly said it or just implied it anymore but Putin basically wants the rest of the Soviet Union back as part of Russia. He may not actuallywant all of it, but he sees it as his to take if he wants. And this wasn't his first stab at it either.
The man's not immortal (though how these men last so long I don't know) but I'd have serious doubts about whether he'd feel bound by any deal.
Im afraid delaying NATO membership will only help russia to continue war later. I do not see other reasons for it..
I'm convinced this is Trump's play. Get a meeting with Zelenskyy, make it clear that all arms shipments are stopping now, and tell him in no uncertain terms to accept surrender to Russia or the US will make things far worse somehow.
Trump isn't President until after the oath at noon on 20 Jan 25. Biden, assuming he's still coherent, still has a few months to act.
One thing that occurred to me is Biden could deploy active forces if he wanted, and push for a resolution by dislodging Russian troops from Ukraine's borders. Or he could move up a number of arms and equipment shipments and simply dump them over to Ukrainian control now, before the transition of power and he loses the ability to give those orders.
The problem with a deployment is the same one that's already been in play; escalation. Which is a whole conversation, concern. Biden, again if he's still there, came up in the Cold War. Russia might be a shadow of a shadow of the USSR, but it still has an extensive nuclear arsenal that is the sole complicating factor in any popular solutions you'll hear. Such as my mention of deploying troops to directly assist Ukraine.
Biden's earliest comments, when people clamored for more direct US intervention as a savior (or whatever) highlighted the concern of Russia escalating. That was years ago, and the situation is just worse now because Putin won't allow himself to be seen as week. He is, because Russia is, but that has no bearing on the lies he props up to himself, his people, and his country. Put him in a corner and the geo-strategic concern is he'll lash out simply because he lost. Again, it's a whole thing with no simple, clear, easy answer.
The situation's extremely messy. Always has been. Hasn't changed.
Ukraine has until 20 Jan to figure out if they can continue without being able to expect any real US support (assuming Trump will cut them off cold, as he's proclaimed he will), or find another path forward. But Trump can't do anything yet except issue press releases.
If Biden sends in troops to Ukraine, democrats won’t win an election in the next three decades.
If Trump becomes president, Democrats won't win an election in the next three decades.
... Wait
You really want Biden to send American kids to go die in Ukraine? Biden escalating the war his last two months in office would make things considerably worse for the Ukrainian people. It would be extremely unpopular among the American people, the majority of whom want nothing to with this war.
The benefit to Ukraine is that the war would be over. They are losing. People who lose wars typically lose territory. It sucks but that is reality.
If they're lucky. I would not be surprised if Russia/Trump demands they give more. What other choice do they have?
Without NATO membership, Ukraine has no peace - only a ceasefire. Russia's promises of peace are as meaningless as they were in 2014/2022, and US deterrence will be even more meaningless than they are now if the US force Ukraine to cede territory that US themselves were supposedly deterring Russia from taking.
Russia essentially has a veto on NATO membership, as NATO membership requires there to be no disagreements on ownership with land on date of joining. Russia can trivially make anyone fail that requirement simply by claiming to own some of that country's land. So, a promise of future membership in exchange for a Russian ceasefire is useless.
And honestly, what's the difference to Russia between NATO membership now and NATO membership later, if Russia will actually honor its ceasefire? It's not like Ukraine will invade Russia, Ukraine's army is struggling to even defend let alone make net gains, and Russia has nukes.
If true, it seems better the, "You're on your own, Ukraine." Surprising. But, then, it's not a reality yet and could never be.
Fuck it, Biden should send US troops to engage Russia inside Ukraine. Who gives a fuck about nuclear war if the planet is already on fire and Trump is going to be president again, right guys?
Well, to be honest, I’d rather avoid nuclear war.
edit: also, I feel like you should ask the people you’re sending into that meat grinder. The us military is composed of people in the end, it’s not just some tool.
On one hand, better to deploy and try to wrap this thing up before January.
On the other hand, Trump will try to skip the funeral bills if you die too close to January.
On another hand, with the likelihood that the VA will be crippled or dismantled under project 2025, probably best we don't get any more service connected disabilities.
On a fourth hand, Servicemember who had access to the project 2025 manifesto before the election still voted for Donald Trump... So, fuck 'em in that case.
Ehhh, I think there is a reasonable chance that not engaging now just makes a larger future conflict more likely. Fight Russia now when they are weak, or fight Russia later when they are stronger. Not to mention how emboldened China is going to be when they learn that they can take Taiwan with impunity.
You're telling me you've watched how many movies about nuclear war and never even been a little curious what it's actually like?
No. I enjoy being alive.
I promise you'll never feel more alive than when you're running through the ruins of your city streets, trying to find a place to hide from the packs of mutant dogs and your slightly less mutant fellow survivors
Or the EU could get off their ass and acknowledge they’re being complacent. They need to take care of Ukraine or they will be next.
They aren't complacent, most if not all military spending is up, but they sure are waffling. Most of them were waiting what would happen with this election as well.
You're right, the European Union should build more nuclear weapons
Unironically, yes, that might be where we're headed. Anyone in the EU who doesn't eat frog, lost the credibility of their nuclear umbrella on Tuesday. Expect to see moves in that direction. Perhaps also from east Asian countries.
Is your point that Trump’s alleged plan could be worse? I can’t really tell from the exasperated hyperbole
Nah, the only point to those sarcastic comments is to provide myself catharsis
Trying to engage with this news seriously for a moment, I haven't completely given up hope that Trump might make some unhinged decisions that actually lead to sending more weapons and aid to Ukraine. I wouldn't bet on that, and it would run counter to just about every other instance of Trump's foreign policy. However, I do think there's a non-zero chance that while attempting to enforce peace between Ukraine and Russia, something between Trump and Putin "breaks" for lack of a better word, and Trump decides to swing some dick in Ukraine's favor.
Or maybe that's just the hopium I'm huffing, your choice
Trump likes being flattered. I suspect the next 75 days he will be receiving a lot of it from Zelenskyy.
Trump likes money. I suspect he'll receive a lot from both sides. Also flattery.
Would not be entirely surprised if he has receive a whole lot of coaching on how to deal with Trump.