If our worst fears about Donald Trump play out, how will we know when it's time to leave?
Like I did last time Trump was in office, I've been reading up on authoritarianism and fascism.
Ur-Fascism by Umberto Eco
On Tyranny by Timothy Snyder
They Thought They were Free by Milton Mayer
And if you want a hot take from someone who argues that Trump himself is not a fascist but rather something worse, here is a great video from Morbid Zoo. Note: the main argument in this video begins at about 11:30. The lead up is responding to criticisms of her first video on the topic and laying some groundwork for her argument. You'll be fine to start at 11:30.
I wonder still if there is enough fight left in this country to resist him. I wonder if Trumpism will fizzle out upon his death or when he leaves office in four years. I wonder if America's institutions are strong enough, its people just smart enough, to not go that route. I suppose I'm feeling anxiety because I would like to, here and now before I become accustomed to another "new normal," set my boundaries on when there is no going back. I don't want to look back and say that I missed the obvious moment and I should have known. I want to be ready and keep my wife and son safe.
My question is this:
Where is your uncrossable line? What would Trump and crew have to do before you decided to leave by any means with no concern for your debts, possessions, etc.? Or, if the frog is boiled more gradually, when would you start seriously making preparations?
I don't think you could get me to leave. In these worst case scenarios, there would be people here who can't leave. And I honestly think I would rather be executed by fascists for resisting them than start a new life as a refugee. I'm pretty well equppied to be a resource, not financially, but in other ways. I got some trad skills. I think some Americans imagine being a refugee as just.... moving. Like if you can afford to just move, I guess maybe it would be like that? I can't. But the reality for most would be refugee status which is not an easy life. I don't really see the point in living that way for myself, I don't have kids or a family to take care of and I'm in a little off grid community. We have each other, we have solar, we have water... But I'm also not particularly afraid of being dead so that helps.
If the worst kind of fascism really plays out, we will have so much death. It will feel like my duty to resist that. I love a lot of people who can't leave, and probably can't do much to protect themselves. So yeah, I'm okay dying for them. We'll go together.
More or less, yeah.
Most of the people who have not just the money, but the means (education, status, banked wealth, things that make them attractive as immigrants), are basically the kinds of people a lot of Trump voters were mad at. Elitists. When you're poor, paycheck-to-paycheck, anyone who's comfortable is at least a bit of an elitist to you.
Those poor folks won't get the time of day if they try to emigrate to another country. America is unique in that it accepts significant numbers of non-elite immigrants. Most countries, they want to see education, a resume full of experience in key industries, wealth you'll transfer to the country. When you don't have those things, you need provable and relevant lineage as that country defines it.
Otherwise they tell you no, you're not immigrating. You might not even be allowed residency, because that country's non-elites see you as competition. Something that's playing out all over Europe. Lots of European countries (in the past decade) have accepted some refuges, and their native populations have pushed back hard. It's part of why right wing sentiments are rising in so many places; lack of economic opportunity. New workers willing to take less than you is competition for your job, however angry it makes comfortable elitists to hear a poor person saying.
Meanwhile, in America, significant numbers of immigrants can just show up and say "but I made it, I need to live here now" and they have a much higher chance of being allowed to. Which, again, is something a lot of Trump (and poor) voters are upset about.
So talking about leaving is kind of proving some of the points those Trump voters had in mind when they pulled the lever for him. They feel forgotten, abandoned, and left to suffer while others charge ahead successfully. They want help.
Again, of course, Trump is exceedingly unlikely to actually help them. But he actually verbalized their pain, with clear messaging that landed. He didn't ask them to wait, or read between the lines; he stumped on their pain. They listened because he was the one talking about them. It's too late to quibble over "but he's lying", because he won.
As for OP's question, the line is probably somewhere around habeas corpus being abandoned. If and when MAGA and/or Trump begin suspending the rule of law on a broad scale, that's probably where the rubber will meet the road. By that point, you will have seen lots of those comfortable, fortunate people with money and means having left the country. Those who are left will have to face it, and some will fight back.
Whether or not they succeed depends on how many people decide to fight. Revolutions often fail when the dominant power manages to scare enough people into refusing to come forward to fight. There's a balance, where the powers-that-be can (somehow) offer enough scraps to convince people maybe they don't have to fight.
Past that tipping point, people decide they have nothing left to lose and more of them will go into active opposition. The trick for a smart dictator force is to figure out just where that line is. To know "we can have this much, but any more and the resistance will go active and it's war".
When elites begin leaving in notable numbers, that will accelerate the changes that had brought about the MAGA desire to even begin removing basic civil rights for large numbers of people. Now, to be clear, I'm not talking about "round up the immigrants." That's probably not going to do it. If someone's in the country illegally, I don't see vast numbers of people being willing to take to the streets to push back.
When those vast numbers of folks being rounded up are legal residents, second, third, fourth generation citizens, when it's people who "don't believe the right things" religiously or politically, when it's courts and local governments or even state governments, that's about the point where the fracture will have become very real in many minds. That's where large percentages of the country will be actively deciding "do I fight, do I hide, or do I give in?"
Mostly, until that question is being asked by more than a handful of people, you'll continue to see people calling you "dramatic" if you wonder about the possibility. People fear change, hate it, and will instinctively push back to avoid having to Do Anything themselves. The thought of America falling to civil war again is mostly a fantasy to many people here, because they can't envision it being real.
Until it's a Niemoller situation, until they begin seeing first hand people being taken, until they see courts being disbanded, until they see state and county and city level governments being disbanded by MAGA, they'll call it dramatic. Say it's not that bad. Make excuses.
Lots of people leaving will just make it more real, btw. It's abandoning not just your (failed) country, but your fellow citizens. The poor will always be caught in the middle of the kind of thing Project2025 could bring about. They never have any real chance to escape it. They have to answer that question with either Fight or Give. There is no hiding for someone without money or means.
I would like to point out that this is also what they called the Jews who escaped Germany prior to the concentration camps. Also what they call Jews today, but that's a bigger discussion.
I want everyone replying in this thread to state in their first sentance whether or not they are in the country, they have kids, whether they are LGBT, and whether they are a racial minority.
I think I get what you're poking at with that statement - that people are conflating vulnerability with ability - but the quoted section above irks me a little. It feels like it flirts with Vance's perspective that single, childless women shouldn't get an equal say things because they have less skin in the game. Maybe I'm misreading but that's how that statement comes across to me.
I think I'm surprised because we are so often on the same page, and I think I may be misunderstanding your comment.
Misreading the intent a touch. The primary purpose is so that I can filter quickly to say "your opinion does not have any relevance to my life situation, I'm going to take this with a grain of salt." It's certainly not to say that their voice doesn't matter, but it doesn't matter as much to me, and likely doesn't matter as much to others who aren't in the same boat.
People who say "I'm staying no matter what" but then reveal that they don't have kids or are not otherwise high on the "going to be put in a camp" list don't have as much of a tangible reason to be freaked-the-fuck-out right now. If somebody does match those qualifications and then makes a reasoned case to stay and put guns in their kids hands....that's actually far more relevant to me.
And (god I threw up a little bit just typing this) Vance has a point, even if he's got it pointed at the wrong direction. To flip it in a slightly more palatable way: White people shouldn't have as much say in what systemic racism looks like. The real problem is Vance's implication that somebody's vote shouldn't matter as much, not that their opinions should be valued less. Oh and that his particular comment is about that women's own body, which makes it significantly more......(insert wild hand gestures trying to find the right words)......wrong.
Going to put in that "disability" is a major factor missing in your assessment. Your criteria are valid flags, but so is "i legally couldn't drive if I wanted to" or "flying is physically impossible if not dangerous for me even for fun" and "i can't survive without my meds."
Gods, my partner has told me if it ever got bad I should run without him since getting him out in that situation isn't feasible, because he's a country boy, and knows what to say. I don't know if anything has ever shaken me more. My anxiety sort of demands I think about the worse case scenario so I can put it behind me but fuck that one is terrifying.
That disability assessment works in both directions (emigration and immigration). New Zealand, for example, will reject visas for individuals not deemed sufficiently healthy.
Yep, I've mentioned that in previous comments. Leaving just isn't an option unless it's a dire dash for the border as a refugee.
Ah, I appreciate the clarification. That makes sense.
I read this as a way to differentiate those who might need to leave from those who can easily leave. Both are likely to flee but for very different reasons.
I'm inclined to stay no matter what happens. I don't know that I would be able to make that decision with a family.
And I think you just touched on the crux of it. It's easier to make the decision to stay if the only people being affected are adults whom will be able to fend for themselves.
Yeah, I don’t always agree with you on things - but on this I’m with you 100%. It’s very easy to say you’ll stay and fight when you’re only responsible for yourself. I know that’s what I would say if I was on my own, and I might even mean it.
My ancestors came here as refugees a couple generations ago, and my family will leave that way if we have to. We are extremely fortunate to have the means, careers, and dual-citizenship eligibility to make relocation a realistic possibility, but that doesn’t make it easy to do.
While there are resources required to emigrate from the US that you're always at least somewhat privileged to have access to, I think it's ridiculous to call everyone who's able to leave "elites." Whether it's reasonable to try and stay and fix things varies by how threatened you actually are by the coming developments, and it's far easier to claim those leaving are "abandoning their country" when it's not you or your children who will bear the brunt of the first blows.
I emigrated in 2018, more for opportunities than in response to politics (though Trump being president didn't exactly endear me to staying). Since this election, I've been sending my trans friends messages telling them that I've got their back if they need to leave the country suddenly. Hopefully they won't -- I don't think any of us want that to be necessary. But if things get that bad fast enough, they're not elitists for trying to get the fuck out before they die.
Also, the idea that it's easier to immigrate to the US legally than it would be to immigrate to Europe from the US is utterly detached from reality. Legally immigrating to the US is absurdly difficult compared to immigrating for the equivalent reasons here in Germany, for example. And that's before you even touch on the massive amounts of privilege a US passport grants you when it comes to travel and immigration, as well as the fact that when the going gets tough, people at risk will not necessarily limit themselves to legal immigration if they need to flee the US quickly.
Great post, and re: the game theory of a revolution failing when not enough people believe in it, you may enjoy Seizing Power by forgotthefirstname Singh.
No kids. I’m currently in California. I’ve got all of the naturally privileged traits. I have the money and skills necessary to get a work visa. If shit really hits the fan I’ll be leaving. It’s noble of you to take care of others. But for me, any time I’ve heard about countries descending into dictatorship I felt more should have anticipated that and left. I understand now that is a privileged choice to be able to make. But the kernel is still there. I’d rather leave than fight the wall until I die, never knowing if it was even a productive death.
I don't think it's any more or less noble than keeping yourself safe and alive by leaving. I mean it's still an act of resistance to leave. They get one less resource. For me, I never expected to live this long anyway for various reasons, so every day past 30 that I've gotten has been an absolute gift and a blessing and I'm grateful for it. I just have too many people here, and I don't like the idea of helplessly watching them from afar. My life would be devoid of meaning if I lost the people in it. Survival for survival's sake is not worth it in my opinion, but I totally understand that it is for most people and that's extremely valid and not something I would ever judge somebody for doing.
I agree and quite honestly if my black and colored ancestors stayed here through Jim Crow and everything that came with that, I don’t think I could ever face them again if I decided to leave the country because of my perception of the people in power. My life now is 1000% better than many of my ancestors lives and I just cannot throw all of their sacrifice and death away because I feel a certain type of way.
Same. I’m currently researching how I can help with the auntie programs near me and Ive been donating to the local planned parenthood for years now. I have many resources I can offer. They’ll have to kill me.
There are more of us than people realize :) I'm thinking of starting a local mutual aid type group for clothing, repairs and trades. I don't know exactly how yet. The concept of mutual aid is still fairly new to me. But I am a firm believer that every little thing adds up. If all I can do is keep people warm and fed, that's not nothing. I'm glad you have solid footing too. I'm looking up what an auntie program is now.
By the time you know that it is time to leave it will be, logistically speaking, far past the optimal time to emigrate. If you have a high degree of confidence that the worst will happen, I would leave before the new year.
We are certainly in for interesting times. My wife's visa was finally approved after 16 months and we just came back to the US last Monday (Nov. 4th). I seem to have poor timing... though I arrived in time to vote.
I feel like some of these fears are irrational. I hope I'm not wrong. I would never vote for Trump and I am sad that he won but I also feel like it's not the end of the world. I would put it at a 6.5 on the BAD-o-meter. Materially speaking, what are the changes that you fear most?
edit: For me, one Trump with dementia and PTSD isn't a worry. What worries me is if there are enough incompetent loyalists in his cabinet to misjudge a situation and cause a tragedy.
My hopefully irrational fear --- The current administration has set us on the path of protests being illegal, homelessness being illegal, and involuntary servitude as punishment for a crime being totally legal. It is a very dark opportunity to create labor camps. Which is what I fear would be the result of these homeless tent cities Trump is proposing to create. He has been vocal about leftists being some sort of radical enemy and needing to be dealt with. I feel like it's a coin toss right now whether that happens. The billionaires want cheap labor, the prisons want profits, and government wants activists to go away. It's a reasonable fear I think.
Private prisons in Arizona sued the state for failing to meet a contractually obligated quantity of prisoners, and they won damages. States are required to incarcerate a minimum number of prisoners, which is usually above 90% capacity. This is a terrifying concept to me. We do not get to decide what constitutes a crime, or what the sentences are.
well... since slavery was abolished, and even to this day, almost all state and federal adult prisons in the United States have some form of work program, "employing" around 800,000 people. But a lot of those jobs, even though the pay is criminal, is usually related to prison maintenance (cleaning, food services, etc).
But you are right that most of those jobs aren't industry jobs (goods and services for the world outside the prison) and Trump's private interests make it seem like this would be the kind of thing he might do under the guise of making the market more free...
Scary thought! But it takes a while to construct more prisons... and I would say the current 1.8 million people incarcerated is already both a problem and stretching the limits of what is feasible for society.
There are likely many federal and state laws which would make this difficult for Trump to actually do, for instance:
*since slavery outside of prison was abolished. It is still perfectly legal to enslave prisoners. California had outlawing slavery on the ballot this very election (it didn't pass).
Kind of off topic at this point, but I can't imagine many of the homeless I see in my town being of any use as a worker. Some of them I'm sure you could have do basic labour but so many of them have serious mental health issues, substance abuse issues, and things resulting from those.
Billionaires want cheap labour but they also want labor that's productive.
Even if they did start this kind of project I think it would fall flat. It would HAVE to start with the homeless. People in certain areas are totally fed up with the homeless so this would have real support. You just wouldn't be able to get any economic benefit from putting them in camps IMO. Then maybe you round up some other "problem" group and you'd run into the real problems with the economy starting to disintegrate. If you start pulling any minority group out of their day job and put them in a labour camp then you take them out of a situation where they are productive (I hope) and you force them to work likely doing something they are unskilled at and aren't going to be trying very hard to do. I think you'd see negative economic impacts going after just LGBTQ people let alone going after liberals as a whole.
Sorry, it's late at night and I think I lost the plot here... and Im far from an being an economist... but I would be more worries about mobs and stuff than govt work camps. Except for the homeless...
There are different kinds of authoritarian states. Some are fairly easy to survive if you don't cross certain well defined lines. Others are unpredictable and deadly with little notice. Others are in the middle.
At the moment I am terrified for trans people and immigrants and people Trump identifies as his personal enemies.
I am waiting for more evidence. I am waiting to see patterns and priorities in action. I am waiting to see how this government deals with the scale and scope of what they want to accomplish.
I recognize that I am somewhat privileged (unless I am wrong about their priorities)
Honestly the last trump presidency was enough to make me want to leave. Biden was a huge relief compared to trump, but he didn’t do anything that changed my mind. Even if Kamala won in a landslide, I would still be wanting to leave. But it isn’t really possible to just pick up and leave. The amount of work needed to immigrate to basically any country is insane (and not ADHD friendly at all). I could have maybe tried to do it quicker, but it has taken me until now to get to another country, and it will still take me more than a year to get a permanent residency visa.
I think OPs question is about something far more pressing. There's a difference between wanting to leave, which a lot of people feel, and have felt for a long time, since well before trump even arrived on the scene, and leaving by any means necessary
If you knew the death squads were on your way to your house, for instance, you wouldn't worry about paperwork or procedures or ADHD, you'd leave by any means possible, legal or not, whether or not you got to keep your bank account or job. OP wants to know where that line is for most people.
This was definitely more what I was asking.
I have a perfect 1-year-old son at home. Before him, I would probably have a more courageous stance, but with him in this world, everything is different. I'm certainly not feeding him to a war machine, but I'm also not going to let him grow up without a father. I grew up with a drug-addicted father who abandoned us when I was young and it was a huge struggle that has defined my identity for better and worse. The one thing I will never ever do in this life is abandon him. No moral ideal or political philosophy will ever change that.
I think there is a huge chance that the US gets through this just fine with our economy and democracy more or less intact. If that's the case, if we will live to fight another day, then obviously I'm not jumping for the chance to uproot my life, my finances, my career progression, etc. However, if it is going to start trending in that direction, I just want to set myself a boundary. I want to know when I should know. I want a clear line where I can say, "This is going to be the worst case scenario and I need to get my son out of here by any means necessary as soon as possible."
For the record, protecting your kid by any means necessary is courageous.
For me it’s imprisoning or killing political opponents. That’s how the Nazis started.
I know what you mean, but I can't help the snark:
Well no, Nazis started by getting elected using bigoted rhetoric about how the
immigrantsJews were ruining everything. We're in 1931, not 1933.The next 3 months are the critical-mass warning signs.
What do you mean by critical mass warning signs? Do you think the next few months will have those signs? Or do you think the next few months are going to indicate how things will go?
I detailed it a bit here. But yes. I think the biggest warning signs will come via the cabinet picks, the initial executive orders on day 1 (Jan 20), and the aftermath of how that shakes out.
The "purging wokes" from the military is particularly worrying, because it's selecting against people whom will disobey illegal orders.
Where would you go?
Currently I am in France, and most likely will end up staying here at least long enough to get a citizenship. I found a reasonably priced bachelors program in Bordeaux for winemaking. I can convert the student visa to a temporary residence visa after I complete my program, and convert to a permanent residency once I get a job here. I am interested in other countries, but my program gives me a huge head start in France. Also it’s just a fantastic country in so many ways.
I've made a lot of commentary, because our family's escape planning is in the making. We're pretty openly jewish/atheist/leftist (in that order). Have two young children, male and female. The question is not just one of being directly harmed or war, but having our children raised in a culture which, will remain complacent if the worst comes to pass.
We are forming two tiers of escape plan, of which I will share the generics:
Plan A: Emergency-only
The prep for this is happening no matter what. We're prepping the go bags and getting passports current for everybody. We have a path for international visitation without special visas. We'll be ready to "go on vacation for 6 months" before January. If we actually need to migrate for longer than that in the emergency state, we're gonna wing it, maybe claim refugee status, and hope for the best.
Plan B: Permanent migration
If a handful of significant warning signs come to pass, we're going to execute Plan B. I've detailed them below. But the plan involves getting some long-term visas, selling (or renting at-cost to family) the home, and ditching most of our worldly possessions and moving to "take care of grandma". This plan is significantly more expensive (on the order of $20k to start), with serious ramifications for our children, but significantly less-so than some of the worst-case scenarios that play out if we stay. Better to leave for no reason than to end up dead.
I'll share with you some of our determining factors:
What the people (especially women) over the age of 70 tell us. They're old enough to remember a world before Roe V Wade, as well as either direct experience or from a parent telling about the rise of Hitler, and in some cases stories about their mothers attaining the right to vote. I'm up to 3 directly telling us to flee. We've got one individual in particular whom has not yet told us to flee, but is trusted enough that if she says go; we're going.
If the following three come to pass by February 1st, we put Plan B in motion:
If my in-laws say at Thanksgiving we should move out. That one is kind of the final straw. Moving out legally is a time consuming process that will only take longer the worse things get, so acting early is better than not.
Edit: Seriously Stephen Miller is a fucking monster
Emphasis mine. Sounds a lot like "roaming unaccountable death squad" to me.
Wishing you and family well and to be safe.
Our Plan A is very similar. Our whole family already got passports last year, but we don't have a particular destination picked. Would you mind sharing your pick(s) for "6 month vacation"?
I was initially hesitant to share, but we have family members in the UK. We can visit them for up to 6 months without a visa. That's our fundamental starting point, as having an 'in' to another English country is getting harder for various reasons.
They're degrading as well, but the way we see it is that while they'll descend to neoliberalism, they won't degrade to the depths that the USA has as quickly as they have. I think growing up in ruins of WWII gives at least slightly more perspective.
Not OP, but Thailand has 60 day visas on arrival for US Citizens.
Also Digitial Nomad visas, unlimited entries, 5 year validity: https://www.thaievisa.go.th/visa/dtv-visa
US citizens can enter the Schengen area without a visa and stay for 3 months without one. If you want to keep it legal, all you have to do is hop between Schengen area and a non-Schengen country like the UK every 3 months (though presumably the more practical choice is to get a visa or asylum seeker status somewhere at some point during those 3 months, since moving around like that without being able to legally work would be expensive).
I don't know what it would take. But minimum it would require countries to accept refugees from the US before I could. And mostly Canada. My partner cannot fly, and without a trailer, we'd be leaving behind vital medical equipment, or I'd be making multiple trips. Disability fucking sucks.
(Also, I wouldn't be planning it online, but you know)
My disclaimer per @vord
I am white male in my 30s with a Ukrainian wife. We have our green card interview in a month. Right now she is in the US on the U4U program.
So needless to say the day after the election I started putting together my European CV. We were planning to buy a Hyundai Ioniq 5 and renovate our kitchen. Those plans are cancelled. We are in full tilt money saving mode from here on out. If she doesn't get a green card, then we are going to try to stay until April for me to get my bonus.
I think I would have a marginally easier time getting a job in Europe if we were over there anyways.
But outside of that particular issue, I think there are several trigger points that would cause me to just up and leave.
Door to door immigration mass deportation plan goes through as planned. If this really happens, it is the tipping point on a slippery slope.
Deploying the military against citizens.
Citizens being 'disappeared'.
Politicians being killed.
Suspending elections.
Depending on the tariff plans, it will make me accelerate my immigration plans. My job is for a retail company and we buy 99% of our stuff from overseas. I work remotely and if I lost this job, I would probably have to sell my house and move somewhere else anyways. I would just move to Ukraine with my wife to Ужгород.
They'll never do that. Putin wins all his elections legitimately after all.
I would claim an election is "suspended" under a few criteria:
Elections are cancelled for any reason
Elections are held but the results are dismissed because of fraud
Elections are held and the result is something so clearly rigged that it is beyond belief
States no longer run their elections and or the military runs the elections
Basically if these things happen and they are accepted or upheld by court, it is a bright red warning light to get the fuck out.
A fantastic elaboration, I'm 100% with you.
I don’t forsee it becoming necessary for people with green cards or better. But passports take a long time to get, so it’s worth doing in advance in case you decide to travel. If you have interest and can afford to try living in another country, maybe arrange to visit for a short time, and then do it for a year? I think people who haven’t done it might overestimate how much they will like being an ex-pat.
My wife is a LPR, my line would be if the authority of the courts to protect legal immigrants breaks down. Which to clear, I do not expect at all.
Trump is going to start out with an attempt to “shock and awe” his authority which is meant to spark fear but the important thing is the restrain and resist him at every level. Elect democrats. Litigate everything. Run out the clock. Saving the country is a far better option than fleeing it. The world without a USA as a force for freedom and democracy, is a world that has authoritarians creeping in from all directions no matter where you flee to.
I have citizenship in Belgium and could move my family over, but realistically it would never happen. We're a blended family and my two stepdaughters would never see their dad again. Neither my wife nor my kids speak any of the languages there besides English, and with their learning disorders they would struggle quite a bit. The girls are entering their teens and would have many social problems integrating. My son would likely fare better, especially with support from the rest of my family.
As much as I would like to leave, it isn't feasible. This isn't even considering that the political climate there is turning more right wing too, same as here.
Please keep thinking about it, have you asked your kids if they'd prefer growing up in trumpist america?
I understand what you mean, but take a moment to step in their shoes and see what that question means for them: Do I leave the only home I've ever known, everything I understand, to leave for somewhere completely new, alien, and equally scary?
It's an impossible ask. No, I can't do that to them unless things are extremely dire.
Most likely? I'm going to quietly buy some weapons and ammo and learn to use them properly. The MAGA right shouldn't be the only ones that are armed.
I think they were implying just that it might be worthwhile getting their opinions on the options - they might think the way you expect, but there are plenty of kids who might be excited about the chance to move to Belgium or elsewhere in Europe. Or maybe they’ll say “No way, I don’t want to leave the only home I’ve ever known and everything I understand.”
You never know unless you ask, and it could be a situation where giving them some agency or voice in the matter could help.
Or, you know, you don’t need to pay attention to unsolicited thoughts about your family decisions from strangers in the internet. I really don’t mean to presume anything here.
You and @metoosalem are correct that I should ask; I'm assuming their answers. I know my family well enough to make those assumptions though.
Another commenter also addressed the fact that emigration is a privilege. My family is on the cusp of being poor. We're paycheck to paycheck but own a home and a couple cars and can buy some nice things. We don't really have "start over" money, and my family in Belgium is only so generous.
Finally, as I mentioned, the environment in Belgium is shifting as well. My family has warned me that things aren't so rosy over there and many are moving more right wing.
Turkey, Hungary, and Russia are some of the only countries in Europe that are truly comparable to Trumpism. I would argue that despite having very little knowledge of Belgium, Western European countries are pretty safe to move to. Also, if it was suddenly a choice available to you, I do think it would be possible with the money from selling cars and a house. It would by no means be fun, and it will be a hard struggle, but it would be possible to start over. Right wing in Western Europe is nowhere close to right wing in the US, too. In fact, the Democratic party would be at best a center-right party here.
Fully respect what you're saying about your family by the way. Just my two cents about a few things!
No I fully understand. It’s a tough decision to make and you don’t have to make it today. But asking your kids how they feel about it I think they can handle. They are seeing all of this unfold too yes?
I really don't know what the line would be. But I think I have options through my job. If it got dire I'm pretty sure I could swing a relocation.
I've also been struggling with the idea that maybe I should keep some arms at home and start going back to the range. Even contemplating the idea feels gross and paranoid. It's not because I fear home intruders, am (current) a targeted class, or live in an unsafe area. It's hard to bet on the stability I have trusted for decades.
I fear a situation like the lead up to the civil war. Bleeding Kansas
That is precisely what worries me as well. It's an awful story and we're reaping the results of not telling it more broadly.
Every war and many forms of civil disorder, even electricity blackouts in big cities provide opportunities for sociopaths and opportunists.
You could think of it as a hobby and put the paranoid thoughts to the back of your mind. It's never really a bad idea to have guns for defense. Even if you never use them. And paranoid people are still right some percent of the time... stability is transitory.
I think it’s strange how the attitude towards guns on the ultra left spaces on the internet did a 180? I think there’s a lot of reasons not to own guns, especially if you’re particularly emotionally devastated.
Very true about legitimate reasons not to own guns!! But incorrect about leftists. They have always been extremely pro gun ownership. I think there's just some misunderstandings because in America people have been referring to liberals as "left" for so long. A pretty effective strategy to control a population is to obscure the true meaning of words. Which is why people think anarchy and chaos are synonyms. And that liberal means leftist. The ultra left as you called it is heavily armed.
But yes, hard agree about not owning guns if emotionally devastated.
It definitely feels like the stance on gun ownership has softened a bit. I'm not really in any other communities but I assume a lot of people of my political persuasion are considering the same decision. Even before Kamala's "I have a gun" I was hearing more liberals mention their own ownership.
My own opinion hasn't changed. I would prefer if we could do mass buy backs and implement extensive bans.
That said.. this feels like an unprecedented sea change. I think it's good that people take seriously what our politicians say.
This is the conflict for me. I'm emotionally sound, grew up around guns, and have an healthy level of caution when handling them. I considered purchasing some in my early 20s. But as my politics moved left I decided that while I may be competent with guns I did not want to accept the well established risks that keeping a gun in the house brings. now the question is whether I weigh those risk factors higher or lower than social upheaval over the next decade.
What do you think is a realistic situation where owning a gun would improve the situation in the next 4 years?
I don't think it's going to improve any situation. I'm staunchly "guns don't fix problems." I'd fully back any extensive gun bans and buy back programs.
But this is the "worst fear" post. My worst fear is that some type of social unrest, local conflict, presents a situation where'd I prefer to have a weapon than not. And in that situation I don't want to bet that I can just magically have one available nor do I want to constitute a risk to others by being out of practice.
Edit: to be clear, I'm really soundboarding here. I'm truly conflicted on this. The whole thought process is gross and paranoid. But if I take seriously everything myself and others have said during the election. This is an outcome I have to assign some type of probability to.
There are basically zero situations where being a reluctant gun owner makes social unrest/local conflict/any problem better, rather than worse. If you're not willing to use a firearm to kill someone, then you having it is purely escalatory and you're better off making a new plan. I say that as someone who supports private gun ownership, for what it's worth.
If you're worried about civil war, in that (impossibly unlikely) scenario the states will be arming their forces anyway - private gun ownership will not be a factor.
That’s a great perspective. Thank you
For context I’m someone who has never fired or held a gun, and for my whole life guns have been “maybe a farmer might have one, probably a basic rifle” and never really a consideration. I grew up in Australia post Port Arthur Massacre so even if I was interested, availability is just very low.
The thing I’m always unsure about is at what point having a gun is useful. My understanding is that having one at home is a risk, therefore it goes in a gun safe, but that takes time to access. Therefore, access to a gun is never quick and convenient, which means the choice to have access to the gun when you need it has to be done ahead of time (based on nothing, I’m guessing 30 seconds minimum).
I genuinely can’t think of a situation where I’d have the certainty that a gun will be needed, and also the 30+ seconds forewarning to gain access to it, except if I was joining up with other people on some kind of attack (rather than defending myself).
I’m sure that’s just a limitation of my imagination given the completely gun-sheltered life I’ve lived so far, so I’d love for people to chime in with what I’m missing.
The risk comes from:
Not doing (1) goes a long way. Not falling into (3) also helps. And (2) is part of the reason you have the gun in the first place.
Your main limitation is forgetting that handguns are very common in the United States, and it is perfectly legal for me to walk around my house or yard (and public) with a loaded pistol holstered to my hip. The U.S. doesn’t have a general safe storage law, so you are not required to own a gun safe. Some folks may keep a pistol in a nightstand. Others keep a home-defense shotgun or AR under the bed. This significantly reduces access times. (Personally, my pistols are in my closet, in a metal lockbox with a quick-access simplex lock.
Ah, right, living alone and/or with other responsible adults certainly makes a difference. I was thinking about if you don’t already have it on you at all times, or if there are children in the house, but completely forgot to write those considerations into my comment.
That said, you’ve definitely helped cover some of my gaps in knowledge, so thank you!
The only thing keeping the world from global war is US hegemony, so I doubt there are many place you would be able to go to.
For me I like this country and the rights we have. we have a republic if we can keep it.
Out of curiosity, what rights do you mean?
I left the US a handful of years ago, and we’d occasionally get comments like this or about our freedom, but I’ve never been sure what rights or freedoms are actually lacking in other developed countries that are present in the US. By a lot of metrics (e.g., social mobility, social safety nets, health care affordability), the US is not very impressive and I think there’s a strong argument that the populace is more “free” in other countries because of that.
It depends on the country of comparison. Compared to Japan, for instance, we have the right to not be sued (and lose) for writing negative google maps reviews. Or be held by the police without charge indefinitely.
The 5th amendment is a common one that other developed nations don't have.
I’m not saying we are the best out there or that our rights are unique to us, just that I like the ones we have and that I’m willing to ensure we keep them
that said we are better than most places (maybe all) when it comes to freedom of expression.
Fleeing isn't an option for me. I also think much of the rhetoric is overblown. I do expect quite a few major changes I strongly disagree with, around access to medical care and human rights with regards to detainees at the border. But I don't expect organized rounding up of citizens and detention camps or the other claims I've seen.
That said, if conflict did fully break out, and it wasn't safe here, I'd send some family abroad. But I trace my family line back to before the revolutionary war. I'm staying put. The only other lineage I have on the other side of my family is Austrian immigrants from after WWII. Leaving a struggle behind just isn't something I'm wired to do.
I dont think I would "get out" per se.
If it looked like things were going in a direction where I might end up getting lynched or something, I would look to minimize my exposure to the rest of society. Not necessarily going off grid, but more like moving out to a small house in less sparsely populated areas, and just kind of lay low for a while. Try to find some online remote work.
The impetus to do so probably wouldnt be anything that Trump or his administration would do, itd be more going off vibes. As political polarization accelerates I think it would be most evident by just listening to public discourse. I think before we get to the point where the bad things are happening it will be preceeded by a normalization of talking about doing such things.
It would have to be really, really bad for me to consider it. As in, rounding up people of a similar ethnicity as me into camps bad.
I think things are definitely going to get worse, but my entire life is in the US. My friends, my family, my dog, my job. While I think it would be interesting to live in another country for a while, I have no desire to live anywhere else long term.
I only speak English, I'm only well familiar with American culture and norms, I'm not interested in being a perpetual outsider somewhere else, unless I absolutely had to for my freedom (meant in the most literal, physical way) or safety.
For better or worse, I'm here for the long haul.
Simply for me, when they introduce the bill or plan for national abortion ban, then my husband and I will move to the country he has dual citizenship with. It will be hard since I can only speak in elementary school level, but hardship is better than death.
Edit and added: or they put forth a denaturalization plan that endanger myself and my parents (naturalized immigrants).
I have a wife and two kids. I'm a white, cis man.
I have the incredible privilege, among my many other privileges, of having dual citizenship with Canada. I've prepped to the degree that I have my certificates of Canadian citizenship for each of my kids (who are dual citizens by birth), and we've researched the options for immigration for my wife, should it come to it (tl;dr: sponsoring her would not be too difficult, and the Canadian government is likely to let us do so from inside the country). I'm also employed by a large multinational with offices in Canada, so relocation is probably a thing I could do.
I've been thinking about this a lot, recently. As a naturalized immigrant, the deportation rhetoric scares me a bit, but whether or not I take it seriously depends on who's doing the deportation. If it's organized ICE agents, I'll probably be fine since I am a documented, naturalized US citizen with a very clean past. If it's a mob of unaccountable state or national "guards", or Trump or his cronies build a program like Texas's that deputize citizens to round folks up, we're getting the fuck out of Dodge.
Other things I'm looking for:
It seems like a tipping point. I'm worried, but I'm not actively running away yet. (In fact, I'm getting more involved in local government so I can say that I at least did something beyond voting. Check out Run for Something if you're interested.)
Call me a coward if you want, but my family always comes first. At least Canada has a long history of being exactly this kind of relief-valve for the US's most terrible impulses.
I'm a bit late to this topic but I've been away from tildes trying to mostly network on bluesky with trans people for... obvious reasons I hope.
But this site has always been a refreshing change of pace from most social media, so here I am again and I think the answer is I would rather stay and fight. I'm at the point where if the far right wants to try and erase transness from public life, my answer is for them to bring it. We fought a civil war over slavery, if we must fight a second one over the right to medical self determination so be it. I have lost all patience with the American far right and with the liberals that allowed it to get to this point through their inaction. Like, in a functioning republic Trump and coconspirators would have been executed after 1/6. At the very least jailed. So I have given up on the federal governments ability to do.. well. anything.
And if the federal rule of law has fallen that means that it will come down to states. States rights to kill trans kids, and force women to give birth. And I think that I would rather fight for the future of trans children, whatever that means. And I don't think I'm alone, if it were to come to it.
There really isn't anywhere to run, anyway.
I've thought long and hard about this, and I'm stuck here to fight, for better or worse. Most countries award negative immigration points for anyone who's likely to burden the health system or is over a certain age, regardless of skills and language fluency. Spouse and I are both over 50 and have serious medical needs.
He's not interested in relocating, and frankly, I don't think "safe" places exist any more. Democracies are vulnerable to right wing-influenced rage at immigration, climate change is increasing political volatility and food inflation.
It's important that some people who remember when things were better are still around to tell the stories and keep hope alive. I'm not a natural networker or political organizer, but I'm hella good at logistics and comms tech, and there's a place for me in someone's underground if it comes to that.
I don't think I'm being overly pessimistic or paranoid. I'm personally acquainted with honest, decent, ordinary people in my neck of the woods who've already been forced out of their public service jobs or into relocating by strategically targeted Republican/MAGA action (SLAPP and Open Meetings Act lawsuits funded by out of state PACs, malicious disinformation and doxxing, anonymous threats, etc.). It's already unsafe for brown and LGBTQ+ people, there've been anonymously-tipped immigration raids on farms, and synagogue and women's health care vandalism and threats. I think this kind of quiet, seemingly disorganized terror is just going to persist and get worse in many places, with right-wing police looking the other way, and most of the populace ignoring it and getting on with their lives until it's too late.