14 votes

Is there a way for Donald Trump to run for US presidency for a third time?

for me, the only good part of Trump winning the latest election is just that this is his final term. if America/the world can just white-knuckle it through 4 more years of trump then I feel like Trumpism/MAGA movement will die cause (call me crazy) but I don't see his base having that much enthusiasm or gusto for any other candidate. Trump seems unique in this unwavering supporting and loyalty-till-the-end regime he has created within the GOP with the help of Faux News.

I figure 4 more years of insanity, then America's boogeyman will recede into the limelight and maybe it'll force the Democrat Party to campaign on policies that will actually help the American people rather than "we are not a fascist like trump".

but I saw some headlines where Steve Bannon was talking about how to allow Trump to run again and I am not sure if that's just bluster from the MAGA movement as usual or there is a legit chance they'd find a way to strike down the 2 term limit for presidents?

42 comments

  1. [33]
    Odysseus
    Link
    It's insanely unlikely. You'd need 2/3 of congress, in both houses, to amend the constitution to allow him to try for a third term. I can't even imagine this conservative supreme court letting it...

    It's insanely unlikely. You'd need 2/3 of congress, in both houses, to amend the constitution to allow him to try for a third term. I can't even imagine this conservative supreme court letting it slide either.

    With that said, until the underlying issues that led to the rise of Trumpism are addressed, I don't think this is the end of the MAGA movement. Just the end of this particular flavor of it.

    33 votes
    1. [30]
      l_one
      Link Parent
      If, at the end of his term, we still have a system that operates, or tries to operate, under the rule of law, then it remains unlikely. The Heritage foundation (creators of Project 2025) handed...

      It's insanely unlikely. You'd need 2/3 of congress, in both houses, to amend the constitution to allow him to try for a third term. I can't even imagine this conservative supreme court letting it slide either.

      If, at the end of his term, we still have a system that operates, or tries to operate, under the rule of law, then it remains unlikely.

      The Heritage foundation (creators of Project 2025) handed him a roadmap to, among other things, install a Loyalist government.

      If you have enough people in enough positions of power willing to say 'well, this actually is legal because of this obscure legal opinion written 200 years ago etc etc...' then you can get to a point where he can do whatever he wants, have his loyalists loudly proclaim (on Fox News) that all those representatives who are saying he can't run for a 3rd term are lying cheaters (etc)...

      Our legal framework doesn't allow for it.

      Sufficient damage to and compromise of our institutions and safeguards could get it to happen anyway, regardless of the law.

      He idolizes autocrats and dictators. He pretty unambiguously wants to be one himself. He might fail, but I do think he will try.

      31 votes
      1. [14]
        Promonk
        Link Parent
        It's just that direct. If Trump or his supporters attempt to disregard that without a constitutional amendment ratified by 3/4s of the states within seven years, it will mean civil war. The...

        No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice...

        It's just that direct. If Trump or his supporters attempt to disregard that without a constitutional amendment ratified by 3/4s of the states within seven years, it will mean civil war.

        The question is whether he and his crew think they can win, and whether the defenders of constitutional law can stomach the fight.

        Trump is an old man, and not exactly the picture of senile good health. He will be gone eventually, likely in a little over four years. Concern yourself more with who will succeed him eventually.

        11 votes
        1. [8]
          gpl
          Link Parent
          Have someone run at the top of the ticket with Trump as VP with the stated intention of resigning so he can take office. It's that simple. I'm not saying this is likely or would go unchallenged,...

          Have someone run at the top of the ticket with Trump as VP with the stated intention of resigning so he can take office. It's that simple.

          I'm not saying this is likely or would go unchallenged, but I agree with other commenters that arguments based on the what the Constitution does or does not say fundamentally misread the current moment. The Constitution also says that someone who has engaged in insurrection is ineligible to be president, and all it took was the Supreme Court to say that was not enforceable without Congress (despite the fact that it historically had been without issue) for that to not matter.

          20 votes
          1. [4]
            psi
            Link Parent
            This proposal seems like it would be in contradiction to the 12th Amendment, which demands in part: But there does seem to be some ambiguity regarding their interplay.

            Have someone run at the top of the ticket with Trump as VP with the stated intention of resigning so he can take office. It's that simple.

            This proposal seems like it would be in contradiction to the 12th Amendment, which demands in part:

            [N]o person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.

            But there does seem to be some ambiguity regarding their interplay.

            14 votes
            1. [3]
              gpl
              Link Parent
              He would be ineligible to be elected, not ineligible to hold. Someone who has won twice is ineligible to be elected again, but they can certainly hold office in their second term despite that...

              He would be ineligible to be elected, not ineligible to hold. Someone who has won twice is ineligible to be elected again, but they can certainly hold office in their second term despite that ineligibility for example.

              Again I’m just pointing out that we are in uncharted territory where the rule of law does not matter unless we make it, and falling back on “they can’t do that so we shouldn’t worry or prepare for it” is not viable (in my opinion).

              8 votes
              1. boxer_dogs_dance
                Link Parent
                On the other hand I am a huge proponent of waiting until it is appropriate to respond. Revealing cards too early is counter productive. My hope is that the Trump administration will make...

                On the other hand I am a huge proponent of waiting until it is appropriate to respond. Revealing cards too early is counter productive.

                My hope is that the Trump administration will make themselves thoroughly disliked by the public over the next four years. Popular support or lack of popular support can be important to the success or failure of a coup.

                Democrats need to not appear moralistic and definitely not appear smug and superior. Just offer an alternative at the appropriate time. If actual resistance is needed, there can be plans for that.

                2 votes
              2. psi
                Link Parent
                Yup, that's the ambiguity I was referring to. That interpretation strikes me as pretty silly (obviously the reason for the restriction on election is to prevent service -- why would only election...

                Yup, that's the ambiguity I was referring to. That interpretation strikes me as pretty silly (obviously the reason for the restriction on election is to prevent service -- why would only election be sacrosanct?), but I agree that we shouldn't depend on this court interpreting the Constitution in good faith.

                2 votes
          2. [3]
            Promonk
            Link Parent
            I understand what you're saying, that the GOP has been very good at manipulating the way people perceive legality and finding loopholes to accomplish their goals, and there's no reason to think...

            I understand what you're saying, that the GOP has been very good at manipulating the way people perceive legality and finding loopholes to accomplish their goals, and there's no reason to think they won't extend that effort to further chicanery.

            I'm telling you that this one is different. The 22nd Amendment together with Article II is explicit and clear, and while I have no doubt some would try to twist the language to suit their aims, that is a crossing of the Rubicon that millions of Americans–including many that've sworn to defend the Constitution against enemies foreign and domestic–would recognize. It would mean civil war. I don't know what the outcome of such a war would be or even what it would look like, but I'm certain it would happen.

            But that is entirely beyond your control and mine. Our concern and anxiety is better directed toward solving the problems that give the MAGA cult its strength, because that will have to come from the states and be led by grassroots efforts to make our system more sane and humane.

            Leave Trump to make his decisions, and we will react. That's all we can do regarding him, anyway.

            12 votes
            1. [2]
              l_one
              Link Parent
              Yes. The threat of civil war has gone from laughable conspiracy theory, to noted minuscule possibility on the horizon, to (in my view) serious near-to-mid-term concern. I am utterly unable to...

              I'm telling you that this one is different. The 22nd Amendment together with Article II is explicit and clear, and while I have no doubt some would try to twist the language to suit their aims, that is a crossing of the Rubicon that millions of Americans–including many that've sworn to defend the Constitution against enemies foreign and domestic–would recognize.

              It would mean civil war.

              Yes. The threat of civil war has gone from laughable conspiracy theory, to noted minuscule possibility on the horizon, to (in my view) serious near-to-mid-term concern. I am utterly unable to express in words the depth of 'please I don't want this' when I consider that future permutation.

              I do not believe it is a coincidence he has publicly stated he will engage in 'loyalty purges' of the top leadership of the branches of our military.

              11 votes
        2. [5]
          l_one
          Link Parent
          There are a number of routes he could take. A standard play in the autocrat playbook is declare a state of emergency over... whatever you want to manufacture as an emergency, then declare martial...

          No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice...

          There are a number of routes he could take.

          A standard play in the autocrat playbook is declare a state of emergency over... whatever you want to manufacture as an emergency, then declare martial law and suspend elections 'for the duration of the emergency'.

          @gpl mentioned another: run as VP, win, have the 'elected president' resign immediately, shifting trump into the office via chain of succession.

          He could lean harder into the 'cheating' theme he is so fond of, spend a year touting conspiracies about deep state dems engagning in a massive effort to rig our election system and suspend elections (until some nebulous 'fixed everything' date) 'to keep the dems from cheating'.

          I'm not saying whatever ploy would succeed, just that I expect him to try.

          Hell, he's not even back in office yet and he's already hard at work degrading the power of the press: intimidation, lawsuits, threat of using the FBI and DOJ (after suitably Project-2025'ing them into loyalty) to charge them criminally and jail them.

          4 votes
          1. [3]
            heraplem
            (edited )
            Link Parent
            In theory this would be just as illegal as Trump being inaugurated for a third term. The Constitution does not provide a mechanism to suspend elections. There is no "except in cases of emergency"...

            then declare martial law and suspend elections 'for the duration of the emergency'.

            In theory this would be just as illegal as Trump being inaugurated for a third term. The Constitution does not provide a mechanism to suspend elections. There is no "except in cases of emergency" clause. A Presidential term lasts exactly four years. And Congress determines the timing of the election (in the Electoral College), not the President.

            Furthermore, since the states run elections, not the federal government, the only way this would work (in non-compliant states) is if Trump somehow used the military to interfere with the election process. Is that possible? Maybe. One would hope that the military would refuse that as unconstitutional, though I guess we can't be sure. But I think that such a move would make him highly unpopular.

            Thinking about it, I guess the obvious point of attack is the Electoral College. That's a much smaller number of people that you have to intimidate, and it's a lot further removed from the life of an average citizen.

            7 votes
            1. [2]
              ThrowdoBaggins
              Link Parent
              Given that the states run elections, what’s to stop loyal red states from saying “no need to run any more elections because the office is already held by the best guy for the job” and then when...

              Given that the states run elections, what’s to stop loyal red states from saying “no need to run any more elections because the office is already held by the best guy for the job” and then when other states hold a vote, just turn it into “but any outcome is invalid because not every state participated”

              1 vote
              1. heraplem
                Link Parent
                There actually is at least one precedent for this: the election of 1864, during the Civil War. The position of the United States government has always been that states cannot leave the Union, and...

                There actually is at least one precedent for this: the election of 1864, during the Civil War. The position of the United States government has always been that states cannot leave the Union, and on that view, the "Confederacy" was merely a group of states in rebellion. They did not send electors, so the election simply occurred without their votes.

                I'm not a lawyer or a legal scholar, but I see one opening here for wiggle room: at the time, the US government simply did not recognize the governments of the states that were in rebellion. Two mostly-recaptured states, Tennessee and Louisiana, did send electors, but they were rejected on that basis. So I suppose one could argue that an election would be invalid if some state governments recognized by the United States government did not send electors. However, I think the Supreme Court would rule that, in that case, those states' votes would simply not be counted.

                2 votes
          2. DefinitelyNotAFae
            Link Parent
            He's not eligible to be VP either. I'm not saying he couldn't try it but he shouldn't be able to be elected that way. Speaker of the House gets weirder.

            He's not eligible to be VP either. I'm not saying he couldn't try it but he shouldn't be able to be elected that way. Speaker of the House gets weirder.

            5 votes
      2. [2]
        Odysseus
        Link Parent
        I agree, though I don't want to be alarmist about it. Trump is coming in with a strong mandate, faith in American institutions are at their lowest point since the civil war, and flooding the civil...

        I agree, though I don't want to be alarmist about it. Trump is coming in with a strong mandate, faith in American institutions are at their lowest point since the civil war, and flooding the civil service with loyalists will no doubt allow them to do things that they wouldn't be able to if they had to go through congress, but a third trump term without a constitutional amendment is such a black and white violation of a black and white amendment, I don't see the courts nor the American people letting that slide. In my view, people voted the democrats out more than voted Trump in.

        4 votes
        1. CptBluebear
          Link Parent
          Incumbents worldwide have been on a massive losing streak. People are unhappy overall and that always causes political upheaval.

          In my view, people voted the democrats out more than voted Trump in.

          Incumbents worldwide have been on a massive losing streak. People are unhappy overall and that always causes political upheaval.

          4 votes
      3. [13]
        elight
        Link Parent
        And it is almost certainly foreign powers supporting him in this, indirectly or directly (though the FBI cleared him of the latter a few years ago). Few things make Putin's goals easier than a...

        And it is almost certainly foreign powers supporting him in this, indirectly or directly (though the FBI cleared him of the latter a few years ago).

        Few things make Putin's goals easier than a world where the other major powers are ruled by would-be autocrats. Autocrats will be so busy navel-gazing that Putin would be able to just run the table.

        The world is in deep shit.

        The Overton Window has moved. MAGA doesn't need another Trump to keep going; it just needs enough people who want to wear that mantle that they'll slither over one another to wear it. And I expect that will be Vance. He is winning people over who don't like Trump. He is insidious, eager for power, and seems to as yet know no truth, established in public, that he cannot lie about later (e.g., his take on Trump 8 years ago).

        2 votes
        1. [5]
          b3_k1nd_rw1nd
          Link Parent
          Then why do you think it hasn't happened yet and Trump has such a strange strangehold over his base?

          The Overton Window has moved. MAGA doesn't need another Trump to keep going; it just needs enough people who want to wear that mantle that they'll slither over one another to wear it.

          Then why do you think it hasn't happened yet and Trump has such a strange strangehold over his base?

          1 vote
          1. [3]
            boxer_dogs_dance
            Link Parent
            Trump is a very effective demogogue. After 2016 I started reading about Trump's early career. He has been obsessed with publicity and how to use publicity to achieve his goals for his entire life....

            Trump is a very effective demogogue.

            After 2016 I started reading about Trump's early career. He has been obsessed with publicity and how to use publicity to achieve his goals for his entire life. I consider him an idiot savant.

            It would be hard for someone else to effectively step in but the world is now aware of the opportunity so another skilled demogogue might seize the opportunity when he dies. That combination of ability to speak to the crowd and control public image is fortunately pretty rare.

            4 votes
            1. [2]
              elight
              Link Parent
              I'm not sure that a demagogue is needed to sustain them. A small group could have a similar effect by working less ostentatiously but furthering similar populist yet really kleptocratic goals. I...

              I'm not sure that a demagogue is needed to sustain them. A small group could have a similar effect by working less ostentatiously but furthering similar populist yet really kleptocratic goals. I still see Vance as part of if not the head of such a hydra.

              Trump paved their path to this awfulness. Does the GOP require another Trump to continue? I don't think so.

              Also, unless he dies in office (...), I expect he'll still wield outsized power once out.

              1 vote
              1. boxer_dogs_dance
                Link Parent
                He's going to wield official or unofficial power until he loses capacity I agree. I believe he had family members with dementia.

                He's going to wield official or unofficial power until he loses capacity I agree. I believe he had family members with dementia.

                1 vote
          2. elight
            Link Parent
            Because he can (and will be) president. After he's out of office, all bets are off. Though he'll likely still wield power because power isn't just that of position but influence. He controls a...

            Because he can (and will be) president. After he's out of office, all bets are off. Though he'll likely still wield power because power isn't just that of position but influence. He controls a large base.

            Also, why assume that this isn't happening already but quietly just among the power elite? They couldn't afford to act publicly while he still wields power.

            1 vote
        2. [7]
          heraplem
          Link Parent
          I expect that, once Trump is out of the picture, there will be some kind of power struggle between Vance, at least one of the Trump children, and possibly Elon Musk. Sort of like the Second...

          I expect that, once Trump is out of the picture, there will be some kind of power struggle between Vance, at least one of the Trump children, and possibly Elon Musk. Sort of like the Second Triumvirate.

          1 vote
          1. [5]
            nukeman
            Link Parent
            There’s definitely going to be a power struggle, because Trump’s “politics” are personality-based, not party-based. A whole lot of voters go for Trump because he’s Trump, not because he’s a...

            There’s definitely going to be a power struggle, because Trump’s “politics” are personality-based, not party-based. A whole lot of voters go for Trump because he’s Trump, not because he’s a Republican or conservative or anything else. Take DJT out of the picture, and their motivation to vote goes away.

            Regarding Elon Musk, since he can’t run (and I don’t think an amendment would get through), he would probably support a proxy. My hunch would be Joe Rogan (who may be the only one who could continue with MAGA).

            3 votes
            1. [3]
              DefinitelyNotAFae
              Link Parent
              Trump seems to already be getting pissy about the "President Musk" comments in regards to Musk bullying the House on Trump's behalf, so we'll see how long their situationship lasts. I don't think...

              Trump seems to already be getting pissy about the "President Musk" comments in regards to Musk bullying the House on Trump's behalf, so we'll see how long their situationship lasts.

              I don't think Musk goes away, but he'd be dimished by losing Trump's good will.

              1 vote
              1. [2]
                boxer_dogs_dance
                Link Parent
                If Trump and Musk decided that they hate each other, it could be a metaphorical Godzilla v Mothra fight and I would be munching popcorn and cheering.

                If Trump and Musk decided that they hate each other, it could be a metaphorical Godzilla v Mothra fight and I would be munching popcorn and cheering.

                1. DefinitelyNotAFae
                  Link Parent
                  Oh well keep an eye on this Trump is in charge he promises "President Musk" and less often "First Lady/Gentleman Trump" has been making the rounds and Trump wants everyone to know he's the real...

                  Oh well keep an eye on this
                  Trump is in charge he promises

                  "President Musk" and less often "First Lady/Gentleman Trump" has been making the rounds and Trump wants everyone to know he's the real president.

            2. boxer_dogs_dance
              Link Parent
              I could see Tucker Carlson succeeding with MAGA.

              I could see Tucker Carlson succeeding with MAGA.

          2. elight
            Link Parent
            Same except Elon can't be president. But same.

            Same except Elon can't be president. But same.

    2. AnthonyB
      Link Parent
      Don't forget, you'd also need 38 states to ratify the amendment.

      Don't forget, you'd also need 38 states to ratify the amendment.

      2 votes
    3. raze2012
      Link Parent
      Yeah, it was always a courtesy for a president to step down after two terms. Congres voted the 22nd amendment precisely because society agreed that a president shouldn't run for 4 terms until...

      Yeah, it was always a courtesy for a president to step down after two terms. Congres voted the 22nd amendment precisely because society agreed that a president shouldn't run for 4 terms until their deathbed (even if most of this came from maritime situations)

      1 vote
  2. [3]
    l_one
    Link
    Legally? ...no... Could he? ... There is a serious chance he will, once again, try to graduate from little-boy wannabe dictator to big-boy actual dictator. There is a chance he could succeed. The...

    Legally? ...no...

    Could he?

    ...

    There is a serious chance he will, once again, try to graduate from little-boy wannabe dictator to big-boy actual dictator.

    There is a chance he could succeed. The Heritage Foundation gave him a step-by-step idiots guide to installing a loyalist government in Project 2025. He is attacking free speech by both suing media groups in civil court and threatening them with a co-opted justice department - we could see journalists be imprisoned.

    If he finishes destroying the guard rails, the checks and balances of power?

    At a certain point, it won't matter if 2 term limits are still in place. If he simply ignores any law limiting him and keeps getting away with it, guts institutions and installs enough loyalists that are willing to say 'his interpretation of term limits allowing him to serve again since dems cheating blah blah blah' and enough people in enough key positions of power are willing to obey?

    Yes. It can happen here.

    13 votes
    1. [2]
      Eji1700
      Link Parent
      Yep. That’s my take. I don’t think he’d run again though. He would not bother with elections

      Yep. That’s my take. I don’t think he’d run again though. He would not bother with elections

      5 votes
      1. l_one
        Link Parent
        A common play in the playbook is declare a state of emergency over... whatever you want to manufacture as an emergency... declare martial law and suspend elections 'for the duration of the emergency'.

        A common play in the playbook is declare a state of emergency over... whatever you want to manufacture as an emergency... declare martial law and suspend elections 'for the duration of the emergency'.

        6 votes
  3. DefinitelyNotAFae
    (edited )
    Link
    Well technically he's run 3 times, but, I'm not sure he's technically banned from running, but he wouldn't be eligible to win. I'm not sure at which point that stops him from "campaigning." It...

    Well technically he's run 3 times, but, I'm not sure he's technically banned from running, but he wouldn't be eligible to win. I'm not sure at which point that stops him from "campaigning." It could be at the primary ballots, it could be at the general election or convention. I'd say the first point would be the states keeping him off the ballot due to ineligibility.

    He'll also be very VERY old at that point and we can all hope it's not an issue. But technically he could probably claim to run for president.

    Edit: so many typos, ugh

    8 votes
  4. [2]
    koopa
    Link
    I’m very confident in saying it’s not going to happen. There isn’t any wiggle room in the 22nd amendment. It took a generation of the Heritage Foundation training conservative judges and coming up...

    I’m very confident in saying it’s not going to happen. There isn’t any wiggle room in the 22nd amendment. It took a generation of the Heritage Foundation training conservative judges and coming up with legal theories for the overturning of Roe v Wade.

    There is not a majority on the court to just throw out the constitution if for no other reason than throwing out the constitution is throwing away the power of the Supreme Court.

    He’ll probably bluster about it, but the same way he folded when the senate said no to recess appointments he’ll fold here as well.

    Plus he’s already going to be the oldest president in history, he doesn’t have another term in him.

    8 votes
    1. boxer_dogs_dance
      Link Parent
      One of the silver linings I see is that the justices are power players in their own right and will act in their own interests. I disagree with the conservative majority on the court but Trump is...

      One of the silver linings I see is that the justices are power players in their own right and will act in their own interests.

      I disagree with the conservative majority on the court but Trump is not aligned with everything they want. (I believe and hope).

      5 votes
  5. dr_frahnkunsteen
    Link
    I’d be more concerned about the constitutional loop hole that could allow Vance to be president for 10 years

    I’d be more concerned about the constitutional loop hole that could allow Vance to be president for 10 years

    1 vote
  6. moocow1452
    Link
    Could he pick a successor and make life difficult for them if things don't go his way?

    Could he pick a successor and make life difficult for them if things don't go his way?

  7. papasquat
    Link
    The thing about these things is that the constitution, the law, previous conventions, and so on are not iron clad. They're not like laws of physics that can't be broken. The fact that they're...

    The thing about these things is that the constitution, the law, previous conventions, and so on are not iron clad. They're not like laws of physics that can't be broken.

    The fact that they're generally followed relies on the people who are responsible for its enforcement enforcing them by force, if necessary.

    The answer to "can trump do x thing" is always going to be "yes, as long as he has the political capital to do so".

    The 22nd amendment says that Trump can't be president a third time. The 22nd amendment is also just a scribble on a piece of paper. Actually ensuring that he can't be president a third time requires that the supreme Court agree that the 22nd amendment actually means what it says, it requires federal election officials actually listening to the supreme Court. It requires Congress to not overturn the 22nd amendment, and finally at the end of the day, it requires the executive branch agencies responsible for actually enforcing the law to do their jobs, which doesn't always happen and who can sometimes be compelled to do the presidents personal bidding despite being illegal.

    So yes, there are many ways for Donald Trump to be president a third time. Some of them legal, many of them illegal, but that distinction doesn't actually matter so much if you can maintain full control of the people who stop people from doing illegal things.