15 votes

Ukraine nuclear missile museum is a bitter reminder of what the country gave up

5 comments

  1. [5]
    stu2b50
    Link
    I feel like it’s a bit overstated. Ukraine didn’t have nuclear weapons - the USSR had nuclear weapons, stationed in Ukraine. But post independence, the Ukrainian government did not have the launch...

    I feel like it’s a bit overstated. Ukraine didn’t have nuclear weapons - the USSR had nuclear weapons, stationed in Ukraine. But post independence, the Ukrainian government did not have the launch codes or any of the systems needed to use the missiles, nor any technitions or engineers capable of maintaining them.

    If they still had them, maybe they could have reverse engineered the systems. But it seems unlikely.

    That was also part of the reason why Ukraine agreed - they’d have these dangerous weapons they couldn’t use that could cause their own self destruction due to improper maintenance.

    4 votes
    1. [3]
      cfabbro
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      Are you sure about that? That seems a bit weird, if true, since AFAIK a large portion of the ICBMs in the USSR were actually first developed and built in Ukraine:...

      nor any technitions or engineers capable of maintaining them

      Are you sure about that? That seems a bit weird, if true, since AFAIK a large portion of the ICBMs in the USSR were actually first developed and built in Ukraine:

      Pivdenmash is known for its military and space industry products, and earned the city of Dnipro the nickname of "Rocket City".

      Missiles

      The company had been the key missile producer for Soviet ICBM and space exploration programs. Historic and Pivdenmash launch systems included:

      • the R-5 Pobeda — the Soviet Union's first nuclear armed missile
      • the R-12 Dvina theatre ballistic missile
      • the R-14 Chusovaya theatre ballistic missile
      • the R-16 — the first widely deployed ICBM of the Soviet Union
      • the R-36 (8K67) ICBM
      • the RT-20P, the first mobile ICBM (not deployed)
      • the R-36orb, the first ICBM with orbital warhead (not deployed)
      • the R-36M ICBM family (converted to Dnepr rocket)
      • the MR-UR-100 Sotka ICBM family
      • the 15A11 missile for Perimeter system
      • the RT-23 Molodets ICBM family
      • the Hrim-2 mobile short-range ballistic missile system

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pivdenmash#Missiles

      12 votes
      1. [2]
        stu2b50
        Link Parent
        When it was still part of the USSR. Ukraine post independence was poverty stricken, infamously corrupt, and more Russia aligned than with the western bloc of countries. It seems unlikely the...

        When it was still part of the USSR. Ukraine post independence was poverty stricken, infamously corrupt, and more Russia aligned than with the western bloc of countries. It seems unlikely the pro-Russian governments prior to the civil unrest recently would pursue independent usage of their nuclear arsenal.

        1. cfabbro
          (edited )
          Link Parent
          I'm well aware of the conditions in Ukraine post independence, but everything you just said seems rather unrelated to the specific claim of yours that I'm doubtful of. Unless Yuzhmash/Pivdenmash...

          I'm well aware of the conditions in Ukraine post independence, but everything you just said seems rather unrelated to the specific claim of yours that I'm doubtful of. Unless Yuzhmash/Pivdenmash employed absolutely no Ukranian engineers and technicians (unlikely), or they all left Ukraine post-independence (also unlikely, IMO) then I don't see how that claim could be true. Engineers at Yuzhmash/Pivdenmash literally developed the first Soviet ICBM, and a large portion of the Soviet nuclear arsenal was developed and manufactured there. Heck, almost 1/3 of the Soviet arsenal was actually being stored in Ukraine at the time of dissolution, which would have required a significant amount of staff capable of maintaining said arsenal. So unless all of those engineers and technicians left Ukraine post dissolution, the newly independent country should have been capable of continuing to maintain at least a portion of them.

          Ukraine inherited about 130 UR-100N intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) with six warheads each, 46 RT-23 Molodets ICBMs with ten warheads apiece, as well as 33 heavy bombers, totaling approximately 1,700 nuclear warheads that remained on Ukrainian territory. Thus Ukraine became the third largest nuclear power in the world (possessing 300 more nuclear warheads than Kazakhstan, 6.5 times less than the United States, and ten times less than Russia) and held about one third of the former Soviet nuclear weapons, delivery system, and significant knowledge of its design and production.

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

          Being able to actually fire them is a different story, but I doubt that would have remained an impediment for long had they chosen to keep control of them rather than give them up.

          12 votes
    2. l_one
      Link Parent
      Ukraine has, and had, an excellent capability for both technical education and technical industry. Also, from a security perspective: physical access is total access. You could make a...

      Ukraine has, and had, an excellent capability for both technical education and technical industry.

      Also, from a security perspective: physical access is total access. You could make a counter-argument about that not applying to things like encrypted documents, and extend that argument to a presumption that encryption played a role in whatever code capabilities were required to arm and deploy those weapons, but:

      Physical access is total access. They could have pulled the warhead, disassembled, pulled all of the firing circuitry and rebuilt their own. Would there likely have been significant engineering challenges there? Quite possibly yes. Would it have introduced an element of uncertainty (if the systems would actually work) unless they conducted test launches and detonations? Yes. But starting with a fully functioning weapons system and launch capacity that you don't have the keys and/or codes to is dramatically different from an incapacity to co-opt those systems and gain launch and detonation capability.

      Could they have fired those nukes on day 1 of the USSR breakup? Very likely not. If they had put the time, money, and engineers on the task, could they have had that capability in, say, a year or two (and possibly less depending on the amount of resources spent)? My view is a solid yes.

      10 votes