12 votes

In your opinion, which attractive or mystifying technological concepts or advancement will never become popular?

My guess:

holograms: they look cool, but will never be more practical than a good screen (including flexible screens, mirrors, different types of glass, projections, etc...)

For the purposes of this post, “never” means “in about 200 years”.

49 comments

  1. [4]
    kfwyre
    Link
    This is specific to my domain, and a bit tangential to your question, but I'm going to put it out there anyway. It's not that I think digital learning won't be popular (it will be and already...

    This is specific to my domain, and a bit tangential to your question, but I'm going to put it out there anyway. It's not that I think digital learning won't be popular (it will be and already is)--I just think it won't be anywhere near what it's hyped up to be. Education in the United States is exploding right now with ed tech companies all purporting that their products are better ways to teach kids. The running joke among my colleages is that we won't make it to retirement not because the job sucks but because we'll be fully replaced by computers then.

    I do think that will happen, for the record. We as teachers are already pressured to give our students increasingly more screen time and remove ourselves from their educations (referred to as "blended learning"), and this will no doubt accelerate. That said, most of the ed tech curriculum delivery platforms right now are pretty poor. They boil down to some very simple behavior modification paired with flexible content delivery (called "differentiation" in teaching). This is treated as revolutionary because it's alleged to increase student engagement (usually through some form of gamification) and tailor content to student's individual ability levels, so that all students are working in their zones of proximal development at all times. Optimal learning for all! Or so they say.

    While these types of platforms can serve some purpose, particularly in building and reinforcing particular functional skills, they're acutely terrible for all other aspects of education: big picture thinking, experimentation, making connections, asking questions, risk taking, social skills, self-identification, self-expression, self-reflection, synthesis, etc. Nevertheless, with the current climate of American education being focused on achievement data, these platforms get treated like they're the holy grails of quality education. The problem here, outside of obvious pedagogical concerns, is that this moves even more of education under the thumb of for-profit companies.

    These are a dime a dozen in education right now--venture-capital backed "solutions" to the "crisis" of education. They're going to win, and they're going to do it on the propaganda of buzzwords and promises, but they're not going to be the educational cure-all we want. At best they'll help build some skills in students, but they won't revolutionize education because success at their stated goals will render them obsolete. If the technology creates self-directed learners, then students won't need the technology anymore. This goes against the profit motive, and these companies will never give up their userbase easily--especially when you consider that ed tech is yet another source of invasive (and very lucrative) behavioral data for some very data-hungry companies.

    The more we let companies dictate how we teach, the worse it'll be for education overall, but the prevailing winds all point toward this as an inevitable outcome in the US. Expect to see tons of "revolutionary" ed tech platforms in the coming years, especially once VR takes off. I'm not saying there isn't a lot of cool stuff you can do with technology in the classroom, just that the classroom of the future will likely be more limited and stunted than anyone wants to admit.

    21 votes
    1. mrbig
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      I worked creating materials for online education in one of the most prestigious institutions in my country. Our work was praised both internally and externally. It was also pure shit. The idea was...

      I worked creating materials for online education in one of the most prestigious institutions in my country. Our work was praised both internally and externally. It was also pure shit. The idea was that mixing media (text, comics, games, and animation) was inherently good. That’s stupid. Some things should be traditional books, while others should definitely be games, mixed or whatever. There was an atmosphere of wonder with technology as if it was always the best solution for everything. Well, sometimes the “arcane” ways are simply better and more efficient.

      6 votes
    2. [2]
      Rocket_Man
      Link Parent
      I don't understand why it would make the platforms obsolete. As you mentioned there will be multiple platforms competing against each other so each is incentivised to create the "best" platform...

      they won't revolutionize education because success at their stated goals will render them obsolete.

      I don't understand why it would make the platforms obsolete. As you mentioned there will be multiple platforms competing against each other so each is incentivised to create the "best" platform they can. New kids will always be in need of an education and even if their goal is to create self-directed learners they'd still benefit from a support structure. Which again due to competition these platforms would be incentivised to provide.

      2 votes
      1. kfwyre
        Link Parent
        I think competition will have a hand in making some good platforms. There are already some that are doing a great job! I just think their reach and efficacy are far smaller than what they often...

        I think competition will have a hand in making some good platforms. There are already some that are doing a great job! I just think their reach and efficacy are far smaller than what they often get purported to be, and none of them come close to being a drop-in replacement for a real teacher. Even the platforms I like offer a limited definition of student success with a singular focus on achievement data, and I don't know a single one that even begins to account for, much less address, the whole child.

        Also, incentives in US education are all messed up right now, with many districts choosing to implement these programs not out of a sense of what's right for kids but essentially under duress. The dominant paradigm for American education since NCLB has been to create and enforce the idea that there is a widespread, national culture of failure. This creates immense pressure to buy solutions offered by companies, because no one wants to be failing, and no one wants to be seen as not taking any steps to remedy their failings. Many are flat out required to take these steps in the first place.

        Unfortunately, the heavy accountability applied to schools does not extend to the companies they do business with, so someone can offer us a solution with no guarantee of it succeeding or recourse if it fails. They are not held responsible for dips in test scores, nor do we get our money back. I spoke mostly about ed tech in my original post, but really the issue is bigger than this and really applies to the large swath of ed-adjacent companies, be they in technology, consulting, or professional development.

        While some companies are earnest in wanting to put forth a good product or service, many are not and are the educational equivalent of a smash and grab. Even if what they're selling fails miserably, they still get money, take no hit, and they can simply move on to another district and sell it again, over and over, because nearly everybody is considered failing and nearly everybody will perpetually be considered failing.

        The market refreshes each year as old "solutions" fail to remedy the ever-present yet also constantly shifting "issues" and districts are forced to pursue new routes. Even the districts that are "succeeding" according to the narrow outside measures applied to them live in perpetual fear of falling back into failure, and are incentivized to buy as a preventative measure.

        From an on the ground perspective, I ultimately feel the system won't work to create the ideal learning environment for kids but will instead figure out the ideal way to extract money from public education. I've already watched dozens of different initiatives come and go, each promising the world and each failing to do much to substantively change outcomes for our students.

        1 vote
  2. [6]
    Comment deleted by author
    Link
    1. [4]
      Amarok
      Link Parent
      Google Glass couldn't catch on for the people who wanted to use it in public, but it did catch on with many kinds of industrial/lab work where the social taboo isn't as pressing. That's stealth...

      Google Glass couldn't catch on for the people who wanted to use it in public, but it did catch on with many kinds of industrial/lab work where the social taboo isn't as pressing. That's stealth deployment. So, how do we get it working in plain sight?

      If, for example, you can simply swallow a nanite capsule, and have them build - under your skull - the network for the BCI, or even some form of computing device, no one would be able to see it externally. That'd allow for stealth deployments. No one could prove it was there without unreasonable search, so cops couldn't harass people for it. This also offers the possibility of a form of telepathy between people who have this enabled using networks as the medium. You could be sitting in a bar having a conversation with ten people there in total silence without the folks around even being aware it was happening.

      As for the upgrade/no upgrade quandary, that problem solves itself over time. Those who don't upgrade die of old age. Those who do upgrade don't die unless they are killed. That rather tips the scales, there's no possible way for the luddite crowd to win that fight. If they wait, their view goes extinct. If they fight without upgrading, they haven't got a chance in hell of winning against people with upgraded faculties.

      I love thinking about this stuff. :D

      8 votes
      1. [3]
        DonQuixote
        Link Parent
        The same way you get people wearing wrist watches again. You let Apple design it/brand it.

        Google Glass couldn't catch on for the people who wanted to use it in public, but it did catch on with many kinds of industrial/lab work where the social taboo isn't as pressing. That's stealth deployment. So, how do we get it working in plain sight?

        The same way you get people wearing wrist watches again. You let Apple design it/brand it.

        3 votes
        1. Amarok
          Link Parent
          Hah, that would probably work. :D

          Hah, that would probably work. :D

        2. nsz
          Link Parent
          Surly if apple saw a future in it they would have already.

          Surly if apple saw a future in it they would have already.

    2. Defluo
      Link Parent
      I think technology that merges your consciousness with a machine or AI or even other brains would provide such an enormous insurmountable advantage to those that have it versus those who do not...

      I think technology that merges your consciousness with a machine or AI or even other brains would provide such an enormous insurmountable advantage to those that have it versus those who do not that it may be seen as unethical not to implant at birth. I think most people would see the immense benefits and flock to it. The holdouts would basically become a lesser species of human.

      Imagine if this implant had a secondary minor function to say allow humans to techno-telepathically communicate with each other. The majority of society communicates in this manner because it's faster, you can communicate by thinking imagery or experiences at people, there would be no miscommunication. If you cannot communicate in this manner then you would miss out on an enormous amount of communication and human experience. Nobody would bother trying to communicate with you. Like everybody on earth was speaking a language you could never learn. If you did not implant your child at birth, you'd be giving the child a disability.

      1 vote
  3. [5]
    viborg
    Link
    AI in the sense that many futurists imagine it will play out. I’ve recently seen claims that AI will be creating art superior to humans in the next few decades. Personally I seriously doubt AI art...

    AI in the sense that many futurists imagine it will play out. I’ve recently seen claims that AI will be creating art superior to humans in the next few decades. Personally I seriously doubt AI art will ever be critically superior to human art.

    Even taking that film Her as an example. It was a decent story but the actual scientific elements seemed completely fantastic and speculative to me. Guess I just prefer Philip Dick style speculation.

    8 votes
    1. Amarok
      Link Parent
      The other issue is that people envision AI as a replacement or competitor for humans, rather than a mental prosthetic. Humans being aided by an advanced creative suite that is AI-enabled would...

      The other issue is that people envision AI as a replacement or competitor for humans, rather than a mental prosthetic. Humans being aided by an advanced creative suite that is AI-enabled would likely be able to beat any AI, and any normal human, in the creative department. The pairing is the most likely future. I share your skepticism about 'true' AI. Someday, sure. Soon? Unlikely unless we can scientifically define things like 'mind' and 'consciousness' - and there's no progress there, not really. That's a hard problem, the digital prosthetics are an easier target. You could argue that modern video editing suites, for example, are the start of this... they just lack the mind-link/mind-reading capability to really tie into the brain as the interface.

      6 votes
    2. [3]
      Gaywallet
      Link Parent
      I think there's fantastic art that AI is already creating that is fundamentally different and therefore superior in certain ways to human created art. But art is subjective and there is no "best" art.

      I’ve recently seen claims that AI will be creating art superior to humans in the next few decades.

      I think there's fantastic art that AI is already creating that is fundamentally different and therefore superior in certain ways to human created art.

      But art is subjective and there is no "best" art.

      1. [2]
        nsz
        Link Parent
        Why is the art fantastic? Art is fundamentally about the story behind the piece, the emotion etc, past a novelty accept I just don't see how an AI could make interesting art, who gives a crap what...

        Why is the art fantastic?

        Art is fundamentally about the story behind the piece, the emotion etc, past a novelty accept I just don't see how an AI could make interesting art, who gives a crap what some algorithm decided was a nice arraignment of colours. Maybe if the AI was sentient then things would get interesting but this is simply too far off, imo.

        I can see AI doing interesting technical stuff, like those images made by image recognition neural nets. But here the artist is not the AI it's the programmers that put the thing together. Like saying Picasso's brushes are great at making art, it just doesn't compute.

        1 vote
        1. Gaywallet
          Link Parent
          Because there's an entirely different "thought" process behind it. AI can create things that humans just don't think to create. Most of the AI art I've seen is more an expression of deep learning...

          Because there's an entirely different "thought" process behind it. AI can create things that humans just don't think to create.

          who gives a crap what some algorithm decided was a nice arraignment of colours.

          Most of the AI art I've seen is more an expression of deep learning and less a purposeful arrangement of colors. It's similar things and images laid on top of each other or distorted based on how it's "learned" and I find it a fascinating insight into how deep learning actually works.

          But here the artist is not the AI it's the programmers that put the thing together. Like saying Picasso's brushes are great at making art, it just doesn't compute.

          Fair enough I suppose. That's mostly the art I was referring to.

          But if a true AI creates art, couldn't you still say the same? The artist is the team that created this AI?

          2 votes
  4. [13]
    unknown user
    Link
    An end-user-programmable desktop environment / operating system. It would've been the greatest productivity tool, but it'll neve become popular because we're going towards more locked-down, more...

    An end-user-programmable desktop environment / operating system. It would've been the greatest productivity tool, but it'll neve become popular because we're going towards more locked-down, more isolated apps.

    I'm talking about Emacs-level programmability. Say you right-click your clock applet on your system tray and edit the source code. Instead of apps having their own toolboxes, there are system wide toolboxes, and you compose documents---pictures, text, rich-text, etc.---using them. Each tool's source can be edited. Everything has hooks. There is a big, well-maintained manual, and every symbol has nice docstrings. There are many ways for apps to communicate. The language is interpreted but JIT compiled, so editing the code is interactive, but it performs well too. Everything, every name is public, there are variables to change everything, and to read everything.

    It is like Unix, but everything is not a file, everything is a symbol, i.e. a variable or a function.

    I am sure this is similar to the system the Smalltalk-and-descendants folks want. I'd rather have a Lisp, but well.

    In a system like this writing up a little app would be rather easy, and making extended versions of apps even easier. Just like Emacs' modes and derived modes.

    Emacs gives me a half-arsed, rather limited version of this, and that's why I love it. When I look at awesomewm, it is kinda similar too, and I'm considering a switch from i3 to it because of that. Mac OS has Applescript which apparently allows you to automate some stuff, but nothing near the power I desire.

    It is funny that @CALICO is talking about brain-computer interfaces when I, as a programmer, can't modify my system volume applet to mute when I middle-click on the icon, without jumping way too many hoops... or can't easily make Firefox show the profile name in the titlebar... or can't easily decide which key does what on my computer (and it is way better on GNU/Linux than it is on Windows, IDK the Mac story)... and the list goes on and on.

    6 votes
    1. nsz
      Link Parent
      This remind me of that OS built by one guy, grail os, holy.. can't remember. But it had a similar approach with everything being built form the ground up and connected, editable etc. EDIT: Found...

      This remind me of that OS built by one guy, grail os, holy.. can't remember. But it had a similar approach with everything being built form the ground up and connected, editable etc.

      EDIT: Found it, it's called TempleOS, the guy was eccentric but he had a vision and it's kind of brilliant.

      3 votes
    2. [4]
      Crestwave
      Link Parent
      If you mean binding a key to another on X, you can simply add setxkbmap -option key1:key2 (e.g., caps:escape) to your xinitrc or whatever. If you use a desktop environment there's probably a...

      or can't easily decide which key does what on my computer

      If you mean binding a key to another on X, you can simply add setxkbmap -option key1:key2 (e.g., caps:escape) to your xinitrc or whatever. If you use a desktop environment there's probably a graphical way to configure that, too.

      2 votes
      1. [2]
        unknown user
        Link Parent
        Those are only a few preset recipes, try doing something more unusual and complex, and it becomes a PITA.

        Those are only a few preset recipes, try doing something more unusual and complex, and it becomes a PITA.

        3 votes
        1. crdpa
          Link Parent
          I think the only way to have a fully configurable keyboard now is with qmk compatible keyboards.

          I think the only way to have a fully configurable keyboard now is with qmk compatible keyboards.

          1 vote
      2. weystrom
        Link Parent
        I've tried to remap copy/paste system-wide to Meta + C/Meta + V on my macbook ubuntu installation without swapping ctrl and meta buttons and have failed miserably. Super annoying. cmd button is...

        I've tried to remap copy/paste system-wide to Meta + C/Meta + V on my macbook ubuntu installation without swapping ctrl and meta buttons and have failed miserably. Super annoying.

        cmd button is the biggest lock-in apple has on me

        1 vote
    3. [4]
      asoftbird
      Link Parent
      This sounds a lot like how Blender works; it's whole UI is editable and while it looks offputting it actually is one of my favorite program UIs. Wish more tools worked like that.

      This sounds a lot like how Blender works; it's whole UI is editable and while it looks offputting it actually is one of my favorite program UIs. Wish more tools worked like that.

      2 votes
      1. [3]
        nsz
        Link Parent
        Have you seen the new 2.8 version? it's nuts how good it looks, ui is ever slicker, but they got rid of--really removed as default--the seriously confusing, yet somehow endearing, left click to...

        Have you seen the new 2.8 version? it's nuts how good it looks, ui is ever slicker, but they got rid of--really removed as default--the seriously confusing, yet somehow endearing, left click to place origin.

        1 vote
        1. [2]
          asoftbird
          Link Parent
          I've used it a lot over the past few weeks. I'm mostly really annoyed with the object/edit mode toolbar changing place all the time (it switches between top and bottom of viewport seemingly...

          I've used it a lot over the past few weeks. I'm mostly really annoyed with the object/edit mode toolbar changing place all the time (it switches between top and bottom of viewport seemingly whenever it wants) and the N and T toolbars feel really dumbed down. I'd like to see text about what things are instead of icons.

          Speaking of which, the icons could use some color- it's really hard to find the right object property now.

          1. nsz
            Link Parent
            ahh, I'll admit I have not used it much -- it released on the tail end of a project I was working on and switching proved too annoying, kept getting crashes when using the live render viewport....

            ahh, I'll admit I have not used it much -- it released on the tail end of a project I was working on and switching proved too annoying, kept getting crashes when using the live render viewport.

            Hopefully they can iron out these bugs, switching toobars sound very annoying, I'm interested to get more stuck in when I need it next.

            For the N and T, I remember watching a video how the information in them had been moved to a supposedly more logical location.
            As for colour, yeah, these tiny icons on a laptop screen are pretty hard to tell apart at a glance, even just flat shading based of simple a colour pallet would go a long way and should be compatible with the various colour themes they want to support.

            2 votes
    4. [3]
      mrbig
      Link Parent
      You're probably right. But couldn't stumpwm or exwm scratch some of that itch?

      You're probably right. But couldn't stumpwm or exwm scratch some of that itch?

      1 vote
      1. [2]
        unknown user
        Link Parent
        They do, but it is not much different from i3 in essence. From reading a couple awesomewm rc files, it seems to me that it gets closer: almost everything is a Lua object (table?). I do want to...

        They do, but it is not much different from i3 in essence. From reading a couple awesomewm rc files, it seems to me that it gets closer: almost everything is a Lua object (table?). I do want to give it a go, but having to learn Lua puts me off. Maybe I should just dive in, IDK. It does floating too, IIRC, and I don't really need the tiling features of i3.

        Still, tho, what I was thinking of is something like a complete desktop environment, say the entirety of a core Gnome desktop & apps suite, where this sort of customisation is available, but you don't need to build it all up by yourselves. My i3 setup lacks many things that I'd want, like proper power management, nice volume control (pavucontrol is not really nice), etc., but I haven't gotten around to dealing with it. I'd rather have something nice ready and modify it, which is what Emacs is like.

        1 vote
        1. mrbig
          Link Parent
          Yeah, it would be really nice to have a truly Emacs-like desktop environment. One can only dream!

          Yeah, it would be really nice to have a truly Emacs-like desktop environment. One can only dream!

  5. [5]
    feigneddork
    Link
    Any time a billionnaire comes up with some fancy new transport system that will replace buses/trains I just think "No, many other billionnaires have come before you and have tried to...

    Any time a billionnaire comes up with some fancy new transport system that will replace buses/trains I just think "No, many other billionnaires have come before you and have tried to """revolutionise""" the transport system but haven't"

    Think about the whole Elon Musk boring company idea of digging a hole underneath the ground and letting cars be glided along that way. So first of all there is already stuff underneath the ground like piping for water and gas and so on, so there has to be considerable effort to make sure the new transport system doesn't collide with existing infrastructure.

    This is further compounded when we think of the targeted areas big cities. Not only do they have more of these basic infrastructure, but they most likely already have an underground transit system. So this idea is already somewhat pointless because big cities are the places where they could do with better public transport.

    Even then, lets assume all this is sorted out, lets take into consideration how cars will rejoin and merge into existing traffic. For example in the video the loop thing, the car is raised up onto the road and it joins traffic like normal - except in this situation the traffic is pretty low. What happens when the traffic is standstill - how long are these cars going to stay there or are they going to merge onto traffic and remain in standstill? One could assume the cars would just pile up and now we've got the old problem but with a newer system.

    The only thing that will improve public transport is increased funding into existing infrastructure and changing existing transport routes for efficiency rather than building new attempts on top of existing public transport.

    6 votes
    1. [3]
      Deimos
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      This article's got a few issues (like the title referring to hyperloop when they're not very related), but I still think it was pretty funny: Elon Musk Says ‘Hyperloop’ Tunnel Is Now Just a Normal...

      This article's got a few issues (like the title referring to hyperloop when they're not very related), but I still think it was pretty funny: Elon Musk Says ‘Hyperloop’ Tunnel Is Now Just a Normal Car Tunnel Because ‘This Is Simple and Just Works’

      And this is another article from a few months back that's more serious but also has a lot of good points: Elon Musk’s O’Hare train would probably not take 12 minutes, and other myths worth debunking about the idea

      2 votes
      1. [2]
        feigneddork
        Link Parent
        I'll check those out soon (after I finish watching this episode of dark) but this video helped me understand what the hyperloop was about and how much of a load of rubbish it was...

        I'll check those out soon (after I finish watching this episode of dark) but this video helped me understand what the hyperloop was about and how much of a load of rubbish it was

        https://youtu.be/4dn6ZVpJLxs

        1 vote
        1. Greg
          Link Parent
          As far as I remember, another issue here is that "loop" (the car tunnel) was super confusingly named in that it didn't really have anything to do with hyperloop. As you've seen, loop is basically...

          As far as I remember, another issue here is that "loop" (the car tunnel) was super confusingly named in that it didn't really have anything to do with hyperloop.

          As you've seen, loop is basically just a badly thought out mass transit plan (and/or an extremely exclusionary transit plan exclusively for those who can afford right of way on a limited capacity service). Hyperloop is a technology that a few non-Musk companies are pursuing which speeds up long distance passenger rail travel by reducing the air resistance in tunnels.

          2 votes
    2. alyaza
      Link Parent
      donoteat1 lays this out pretty extensively and the long and short of it is that it operating as efficiently as advertised boils down to basically fucking magic defying the laws of physics, and in...

      Even then, lets assume all this is sorted out, lets take into consideration how cars will rejoin and merge into existing traffic. For example in the video the loop thing, the car is raised up onto the road and it joins traffic like normal - except in this situation the traffic is pretty low. What happens when the traffic is standstill - how long are these cars going to stay there or are they going to merge onto traffic and remain in standstill? One could assume the cars would just pile up and now we've got the old problem but with a newer system.

      donoteat1 lays this out pretty extensively and the long and short of it is that it operating as efficiently as advertised boils down to basically fucking magic defying the laws of physics, and in practice it'd be really no different from a highway, just less safe, more confined, and probably slower across the board.

  6. [3]
    Comment deleted by author
    Link
    1. Amarok
      Link Parent
      Orbital rings. If you see a scifi without them around Earth, the author didn't do his homework. That's the next step now that we have large reusable rockets. They laughably out-class space...

      Orbital rings. If you see a scifi without them around Earth, the author didn't do his homework. That's the next step now that we have large reusable rockets. They laughably out-class space elevators, too. Once they are built, it's a cakewalk to get anywhere else in the solar system you like without using on-board fuel for the launch - you just zip around the ring until you're at 12km+/s transit speeds, drawing power from the ring instead. Detach and the trip to Mars takes about two weeks, no matter where Earth/Mars are at the time.

      This puts the tyranny of the rocket equation to bed forever for planet to planet travel over short distances like one solar system. Once you put the rings around your destinations, travel from planet to planet in-system is a matter of weeks, or months to the outer solar system. Then you drop rails and trains down to sky towers and literally take a train from Tokyo to Moonbase One in less than a day, and for not much more cost than a modern train ticket now. It solves the economic issues. It's an interplanetary solar powered highway.

      The price of that first loop of 'construction' ring is brutal, but once it can hold some weight, the rest gets real cheap, real fast. If Elon was serious about Mars as a true colony, he'd be on about orbital rings. If he were serious about fast train travel, he'd be on orbital rings, not boring tunnels. Starlink becomes unnecessary if the ring(s) are also transmitting. They can also run your orbital solar power right down to Earth over a wire, potentially dozens of terawatts. When you run the numbers, they clearly dominate the entire board in every category, and I'm constantly amazed how under-represented and unknown they are in scifi and in real science circles.

      I'm with you on the whole 'humans mining asteroids' trope, though. More like humans out there in a cushy space liner (think Wall-E) running the armada of robots doing the work remotely. The humans may not even be needed, it could all be done over a long transmission delay from Earth, assuming we get clever enough programs. They can build themselves out there while mining. Send one command module, get back an armada of resources, just be patient.

      2 votes
    2. mrbig
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      I've seen an article somewhere that said exactly that: rehabilitating Earth's environment would be much cheaper and plausible than terraforming some planet that never housed human life.

      If we're going to be spending trillions just to rehabilitate society and Earth from climate change in the coming centuries

      I've seen an article somewhere that said exactly that: rehabilitating Earth's environment would be much cheaper and plausible than terraforming some planet that never housed human life.

      1 vote
  7. Wes
    Link
    Flying cars have long been promised, but ultimately just don't make a lot of sense. They have the advantage of reducing congestion and allow direct A > B travel (eg. across a lake), but there's so...

    Flying cars have long been promised, but ultimately just don't make a lot of sense. They have the advantage of reducing congestion and allow direct A > B travel (eg. across a lake), but there's so many roadblocks (heh) that make them unfeasible. Technological, regulatory, and maybe cultural. Sad as it is, they aren't likely to be a thing in my lifetime.

    4 votes
  8. nsz
    Link
    Blimps and massive air ships, it would be so awesome to go on slow cruses through the skies, awesome vistas. Can't think of a cooler mode of transport. Shame our atmosphere is not thicker, we...

    Blimps and massive air ships, it would be so awesome to go on slow cruses through the skies, awesome vistas. Can't think of a cooler mode of transport.

    Shame our atmosphere is not thicker, we could totally have had this steampunk staple a reality.

    Fingers crossed we colonise Venus's clouds in a reasonable timeframe.

    3 votes
  9. [5]
    NoblePath
    Link
    My nomination is cashlessness. The infrastructure necessary for cashless transactions will never be deployable in remote/wild areas, and yet the economies in those places (along with the places...

    My nomination is cashlessness. The infrastructure necessary for cashless transactions will never be deployable in remote/wild areas, and yet the economies in those places (along with the places themselves) will not disappear nor diminish in popularity among folks who have lots of money and influence to spend. I'd also put forward that having those kinds of areas around are not only inevitable (much like the drug trade), but also useful to society at large.

    2 votes
    1. [2]
      alyaza
      Link Parent
      cashless transactions also tend to disproportionately fuck over the poor and people who don't have banks, which is why some places like philadelphia are trying to ban or have banned cashless...

      cashless transactions also tend to disproportionately fuck over the poor and people who don't have banks, which is why some places like philadelphia are trying to ban or have banned cashless businesses. so there's also that, which i suspect will become more of an issue with time (i'm pretty sure at least one other city besides philadelphia has also taken steps like this for the same reasons).

      3 votes
      1. mrbig
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        And, in order to make cash accessible to part of the population, you have to make it at least possible for the entirety of the population... Also: can you imagine an Internet and cloud services...

        And, in order to make cash accessible to part of the population, you have to make it at least possible for the entirety of the population...

        Also: can you imagine an Internet and cloud services with literally with 100% uptime? Cause I don't.

        1 vote
    2. [2]
      Greg
      Link Parent
      That's an interesting one - you're not convinced by the companies pitching for affordable global satellite internet coverage, I take it?

      That's an interesting one - you're not convinced by the companies pitching for affordable global satellite internet coverage, I take it?

      1. NoblePath
        Link Parent
        Even if we could overcome mrbig’s objection about 100% uptime, you still need servers, pos and wallet devices and infrastructure.

        Even if we could overcome mrbig’s objection about 100% uptime, you still need servers, pos and wallet devices and infrastructure.

  10. [2]
    DonQuixote
    Link
    Biometric Verification. It won't ever be popular, but it will be widespread. Human verification will race with AI advancements until We're over-run with Turing Test beaters that can't be stopped....

    Biometric Verification. It won't ever be popular, but it will be widespread. Human verification will race with AI advancements until We're over-run with Turing Test beaters that can't be stopped. First the biometrics will be hacked by humans with the help of technology and then the tech will outpace the humans to the point where it is beyond our control. Some would say this is happening now, and I wouldn't disagree.

    1 vote
    1. mrbig
      Link Parent
      Biometrics makes using my iPhone more practical. But I don't think any verification method will ever completely replace the one before it, but rather be added as a form of convenience and/or...

      Biometrics makes using my iPhone more practical. But I don't think any verification method will ever completely replace the one before it, but rather be added as a form of convenience and/or redundancy.

  11. [6]
    spctrvl
    Link
    A hydrogen economy. The idea is already stating to look retrofuturistic, with the exception of people remembering every couple years that fuel cell cars technically exist. The long and short of it...

    A hydrogen economy. The idea is already stating to look retrofuturistic, with the exception of people remembering every couple years that fuel cell cars technically exist.

    The long and short of it is that hydrogen is a nightmare to store and work with, it has to be generated by energy intensive and inefficient processes, and there's practically nothing it does chemically that can't be done better and easier by something else.

    1 vote
    1. [2]
      NoblePath
      Link Parent
      Aren't most natural gas deposits something like 5% H2, and the extractors just separate and burn it off?

      Aren't most natural gas deposits something like 5% H2, and the extractors just separate and burn it off?

      1 vote
      1. spctrvl
        Link Parent
        I don't know if that's the case or not. Most hydrogen does come from natural gas, but it's through steam reforming.

        I don't know if that's the case or not. Most hydrogen does come from natural gas, but it's through steam reforming.

    2. [3]
      papasquat
      Link Parent
      I don't even see the advantages. All reasonably cost effective hydrogen production methods rely on fossil fuels, require a massive amount of energy, and are still pretty expensive. People would be...

      I don't even see the advantages. All reasonably cost effective hydrogen production methods rely on fossil fuels, require a massive amount of energy, and are still pretty expensive. People would be paying more for H2 than they do for gasoline now. What's even the point? We'd be better off sticking to gasoline.
      Literally the only advantages that H2 has over chemical batteries is energy density, and faster refueling. The first advantage is becoming less relevant every year as battery technology makes small incremental improvements, and the second is solved by swappable battery packs. I never understood the H2 craze.

      1. [2]
        Amarok
        Link Parent
        Our current methods of manufacture for batteries results in products that have a short lifespan and use up rare materials. We're going to be out of them soon enough, unless we go get them from...

        Our current methods of manufacture for batteries results in products that have a short lifespan and use up rare materials. We're going to be out of them soon enough, unless we go get them from asteroids. We could filter them out of the oceans too. Cobalt and Lithium are the issue. They will get progressively more expensive until the price forces a market change to something better than batteries.

        The good news is, we have the perfect option. Safe, green, better than batteries, better than hydrogen, quite infinitely renewable, and unlike hydrogen fuel cells, it's not encumbered by patent trolls.

        1 vote
        1. papasquat
          Link Parent
          Rare earths in batteries aren't used up though. They can be recycled and reused forever. Furthermore, rare earths aren't actually that rare. The issue is that china spent a lot of time and money...

          Rare earths in batteries aren't used up though. They can be recycled and reused forever. Furthermore, rare earths aren't actually that rare. The issue is that china spent a lot of time and money investing in their extraction, and virtually no one else has. There's no reason why other countries wouldn't ramp up production if demand started exceeding China's supply.

          That's interesting about ammonia. I haven't seen much about it before. At first glance, it seems like using a corrosive, extremely toxic pressurized gas as a widespread fuel source would sort of be trading one problem for another though.