8 votes

Tesla wants everyone to drive an electric car. Now it risks becoming a niche brand.

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4 comments

  1. [4]
    Neverland
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    Counterpoint to all the FUD: I've been hearing about Tesla competitors for quite some time now. The threat is real in some ways and yet way behind in other very important ways. Where are their...

    Counterpoint to all the FUD:

    I've been hearing about Tesla competitors for quite some time now. The threat is real in some ways and yet way behind in other very important ways.

    Where are their battery cells going to come from? Where are their gigafactories?

    The Porshe is limited to 10k cars per year. This is a pretty low volume car.

    The Audi e-tron has a range of 207 miles, that's less than a 7 year old Model S. Projected E-tron production volume has been lowered to only 44k cars per year citing "supply issues."

    apparently, the production problems stem from supply bottlenecks for LG Chem batteries said the BT sources
    source

    I remember reading a while back that Audi engineers saw this coming up, demanded that management build a battery factory but they were shot down.

    Look Musk was a pretty big mess in the last 18 months, but he has made the very difficult long-term bets in Tesla which may actually allow the volume that we need in EVs. IMO, there is a near-zero chance of Tesla bankruptcy in the near future. Look at the $2B they just raised with little effort. There is a glut of private cash in the world and Tesla still has potentially huge upside. Worst case, they get bought.

    Finally, demand is not Tesla's problem. There are not enough available battery cells on the planet to supply even just Tesla's auto/stationary order book. If demand was the problem, then they would have at least some ad-spend, and they have had zero advertising up to this point.

    8 votes
    1. [4]
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      1. [3]
        Neverland
        Link Parent
        Right, but those are all future plans. Giant factories take time to build. Also, the world needs many more lithium cells than Tesla could ever hope to build. Regarding the Chinese cells, if they...

        Right, but those are all future plans. Giant factories take time to build. Also, the world needs many more lithium cells than Tesla could ever hope to build. Regarding the Chinese cells, if they are somehow up to par then I don’t see why the largest buyer of cells, Tesla, wouldn’t buy them.

        2 votes
        1. [3]
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          1. Neverland
            Link Parent
            Yes, the Nevada gigafactory is built to 30% of its planned footprint. They will have 30GWh/year of production by the end of the year, and that’s just in the existing structure.

            Is Teslas plant already built then?

            Yes, the Nevada gigafactory is built to 30% of its planned footprint. They will have 30GWh/year of production by the end of the year, and that’s just in the existing structure.

            3 votes