skybrian's recent activity
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Comment on Rice has a methane problem that a startup is promising to fix in ~enviro
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Rice has a methane problem that a startup is promising to fix
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Comment on How did people correct for inaccurate time pieces in the past? in ~humanities.history
skybrian LinkBefore the railroads, I think each community synced with the sun? See this discussion of how to find solar noon.Before the railroads, I think each community synced with the sun? See this discussion of how to find solar noon.
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Comment on What is a value or belief you have that is extremely outside the norm? in ~talk
skybrian Link ParentI think paying attention to the artifact itself, stripped of all other context, is a valid way of looking at it. But it's a bit narrow - you miss things that having more context could provide....I think paying attention to the artifact itself, stripped of all other context, is a valid way of looking at it. But it's a bit narrow - you miss things that having more context could provide. Seeing an artifact as the result of human performance and/or as a historical artifact often makes it more interesting. Where did it come from? How was it made? Why did they make it?
But yeah, a lot of times the "aura" associated with rare or famous artifacts seems a bit much. Sometimes the thing itself is mundane and the only thing that's interesting about it is where it came from, so the story is what matters. And if the story has been lost, well...
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Comment on What is a value or belief you have that is extremely outside the norm? in ~talk
skybrian Link ParentThis is compared with the US, I presume? I see US culture as encouraging various forms of unruliness in culturally deep-seated ways. Some other countries have a lot less of it, and that means...This is compared with the US, I presume? I see US culture as encouraging various forms of unruliness in culturally deep-seated ways. Some other countries have a lot less of it, and that means certain things are more possible there than here.
It's not all good. Rigid gender roles and social pressure for salarymen to stay out late drinking heavily with their co-workers are also a thing in Japan, or so I've read. But top-down pressure for some healthy behaviors just doesn't get much pushback, it seems?
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Comment on The economics of $15 salads in ~finance
skybrian LinkFrom the article: This is more of an unusual way of presenting the company's income statement than the costs of any actual salad, but it still seems like interesting reading.From the article:
By indexing Sweetgreen’s earnings to $15 — roughly the price of a typical salad at the chain — it’s easy to see exactly where the leafy costs are coming from. In fact, for every $15 of revenue in Q1, the company incurred operating expenses of more than $17.50.
This is more of an unusual way of presenting the company's income statement than the costs of any actual salad, but it still seems like interesting reading.
Last year, Sweetgreen began deploying robots in the kitchen to mix salads, dispense ingredients, and take orders. Indeed, its first automated location opened in Illinois last May, following rivals in the quick-serve sector that were already tinkering with automated stores. That’s good for the “labor” part of Sweetgreen’s costs on the chart above… and less good for employment prospects. In fact, the two locations that are automated, which Sweetgreen calls its “Infinite Kitchens”, posted profit margins (at the restaurant level) of 28%... some 10% higher than all of the others, per QSR.
The other innovation is more recent: Sweetgreen has started selling a number of steak-heavy salads. Those have quickly become best-sellers in initial testing, according to the company, although they jar with the company’s very public push to be sustainable.
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The economics of $15 salads
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Comment on Some observations about some of the conversations here in ~tildes
skybrian Link ParentNot sure how to respond to that, but to clarify what I wrote, I was thinking about posting links to contrarian arguments I find interesting, not being contrarian myself for the sake of it. If I...Not sure how to respond to that, but to clarify what I wrote, I was thinking about posting links to contrarian arguments I find interesting, not being contrarian myself for the sake of it. If I disagree, it’s a real disagreement.
Although, sometimes I disagree along the lines of “this is asserting that every right-minded person must believe something when I think it’s unknowable or open for debate.”
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Comment on GPT-4o in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentI don’t think it’s available yet at all. From the announcement: “We'll roll out a new version of Voice Mode with GPT-4o in alpha within ChatGPT Plus in the coming weeks.”I don’t think it’s available yet at all. From the announcement: “We'll roll out a new version of Voice Mode with GPT-4o in alpha within ChatGPT Plus in the coming weeks.”
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Comment on Some observations about some of the conversations here in ~tildes
skybrian (edited )LinkYep, true for me. I find contrarian arguments interesting (what if it’s true?), and disagreement is usually what motivates me to write. I try to be nicer about it, though. For example, also noting...Yep, true for me. I find contrarian arguments interesting (what if it’s true?), and disagreement is usually what motivates me to write. I try to be nicer about it, though. For example, also noting areas of agreement is important. Sometimes after enough revision, the seed of disagreement that started me off is more hidden.
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Comment on Canada’s fire season erupts, sending harmful smoke into United States in ~enviro
skybrian LinkFrom the article: … …From the article:
Almost a year to the date from the explosive start to the 2023 fire season, hundreds of fires have erupted in Canada, including a dozen major and out-of-control blazes. At least 500,000 acres (200,000 hectares) of land have burned so far, much of it in recent days.
Smoke from the blazes has led to air quality alerts for much of Alberta and its surrounding provinces, as well as Minnesota and Wisconsin. Edmonton was subjected to red-tinged skies and hazardous air quality over the weekend because of wildfires to its north.
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Even during winter, numerous blazes in Canada — known as “zombie fires” — smoldered beneath the snow. The combination of a warm and very dry winter set the stage for flames to quickly expand this spring.
Belts of extreme to exceptional drought are draped across the zone from central British Columbia to northern Alberta, where many of the worst fires rage. The majority of provincial land from Canada’s west coast to Ontario is experiencing at least moderate drought.
More than 100 fires were burning in British Columbia on Monday morning, and just shy of four dozen in Alberta. Other large blazes were scorching provinces to the east.
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It’s not just Canada that is sending smoke into the United States. Mexico is also contributing to hazy conditions because of rapidly spreading fires fueled by excessive heat and drought.
A large plume of smoke from Mexico is poised to spread over far-southern Texas, the southern Gulf states and Florida in the days to come.
Like Canada, large parts of Mexico are covered by the two most extreme levels of drought. Its drought has intensified extraordinary and persistent heat, as high as 123 degrees Fahrenheit (51 Celsius) in recent days — the hottest ever observed in May in the Northern Hemisphere, according to weather historian Maximiliano Herrera.
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Canada’s fire season erupts, sending harmful smoke into United States
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Comment on Mortgage companies could intensify the next recession, US officials warn in ~finance
skybrian LinkI was wondering what the business model actually is and what the risks are. One concern seems to be these companies' "reliance on short-term loans for financing." It's what banks do, but since...I was wondering what the business model actually is and what the risks are. One concern seems to be these companies' "reliance on short-term loans for financing." It's what banks do, but since they're not a bank, these loans aren't from depositors. They're from investors of some sort, who don't have the same guarantees and the government wouldn't have to bail them out? All the more reason why financing could dry up.
Maybe the government would bail them out anyway.
Also, since they originate loans, they aren't directly providing the financing. But looking at "risk factors" in Rocket Mortgage's annual report, they apparently would be affected anyway if loans started going bad:
We are required to make servicing advances that can be subject to delays in recovery or may not be recoverable in certain circumstances.
During any period in which one of our clients is not making payments on a loan we service we are required under most of our servicing agreements to advance our own funds to meet contractual principal and interest remittance requirements, pay property taxes and insurance premiums, legal expenses and other protective advances (“payment advances”). If home values rise, we may be required to advance greater amounts of property taxes and insurance premiums. We also advance funds to maintain, repair and market real estate properties. In certain situations, we may elect to make certain payment advances knowing that we may not be reimbursed. In addition, in the event a loan serviced by us becomes delinquent, or to the extent a mortgagor under such loan is allowed to enter into a forbearance by applicable law, regulation, or investor/insurer guidelines, the repayment to us of any payment advance related to such events may be delayed until the loan is repaid or refinanced or liquidation occurs. A delay in our ability to collect a payment advance may adversely affect our liquidity, and our inability to be reimbursed for a payment advance could be detrimental to our business. Defaults might increase due to a deterioration in the macro economy and as the loans in our servicing portfolio get older, which may increase our costs of servicing and could be detrimental to our business. Further, forbearance legislation or regulation, such as part of a natural disaster response (e.g., the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act), could increase the number of loans on which we must make such payment advances.
It seems that even though they don't finance the loans, as a servicer, they still do much of the work a bank would do. If the borrower stops paying, investors in mortgages (including Fannie Mae, etc) leave it up to them to deal with it.
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Comment on The US maternal mortality crisis is a statistical illusion in ~health
skybrian LinkFrom the article:From the article:
Among the 55 World Bank-identified high-income countries for which the World Health Organization (WHO) also provides maternal mortality estimates, the WHO reported a median maternal mortality rate of 7 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births in 2019. Some countries, such as Poland, Norway, and Israel, report figures at or below 3 deaths per 100,000. Within those rankings, the WHO put the United States 45th, at almost 20 maternal deaths per 100,000 births. That’s a dismal showing for so wealthy a country—and one that’s produced an enormous amount of commentary blaming the high rate on everything from cesarean sections to aging mothers to racism.
However, these figures are completely wrong, and they have been known to be wrong for many years now. The U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, the branch of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) charged with collating health and vital statistics, has published three separate reports elaborating in excruciating detail on one crucial fact about U.S. maternal mortality: It is measured in a vastly more expansive way than anywhere else in the world.
As a result, U.S. maternal mortality is overestimated by two to three times. Properly measured, the real U.S. maternal mortality rate in 2019 was 9.9 maternal deaths per 100,000 births, which would put it at 36th place—still not impressive by comparison, but somewhat better than Canada and a bit worse than Finland or the United Kingdom. And as we’ll see, even that rate may have more to do with U.S. mortality as a whole than with specific pregnancy-related issues.
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The US maternal mortality crisis is a statistical illusion
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Comment on GPT-4o in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentI guess it will be few weeks before we hear from early reviewers about their experiences. I'll be interested in hearing from people who use as an interpreter. In the meantime, even an excellent...I guess it will be few weeks before we hear from early reviewers about their experiences. I'll be interested in hearing from people who use as an interpreter.
In the meantime, even an excellent tech demo is still a just a tech demo - we should treat it with the same skepticism we have of all tech demos.
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Comment on Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of May 6 in ~news
skybrian Link ParentOnce we're talking about government sanctions, I think that's enough to make an impact - though, Cuba is still communist, and Iran keeps doing what Iran does. Sanctions can be undermined by other...Once we're talking about government sanctions, I think that's enough to make an impact - though, Cuba is still communist, and Iran keeps doing what Iran does. Sanctions can be undermined by other governments, but the US has a good chance of enforcing them through the banking system, as we're seeing with Russia. It doesn't stop other countries from trading, but it makes trade more difficult and expensive.
It's difficult to do this without government enforcement. If some investors divest from military contractors, they will sell to others who get the benefits of ownership instead, and maybe the new owners are pro-Israeli? Matt Levine often writes about such dilemmas that happen with EGS investing for climate change.
Getting US government support for this would require more consensus about Israel in Congress than the US has so far. The Biden administration's pressure on Israel is more direct, but perhaps Israel won't be deterred. Deterrence fails quite a lot in the Middle East, it seems.
More international support for sanctions could yet happen if things keep getting worse. (Turkey has halted all trade with Israel.)
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Comment on Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of May 6 in ~news
skybrian (edited )Link ParentInvestors do sometimes fund growing businesses. For example, VC’s fund startups. But for profitable businesses, the money flows in the opposite direction, from the business to investors, through...Investors do sometimes fund growing businesses. For example, VC’s fund startups. But for profitable businesses, the money flows in the opposite direction, from the business to investors, through dividends and stock buybacks.
So it seems like thinking of your tuition money as flowing to Israel is likely mostly an act of imagination. One could just as easily imagine the college getting a small amount of its funding from Israeli businesses. As a symbolic connection, maybe that’s equally objectionable?
What happens for any given college’s investments? We would need to dive into the details to see. I would guess that on average, foreign investments are a fairly small percentage, Israeli investments are a tiny chunk of those, and they’re mostly profitable businesses. Under those assumptions, direct donations would make a much bigger difference. But it would be interesting to see someone do the analysis for real.
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Comment on Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of May 6 in ~news
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Comment on Seattle’s law mandating higher pay for food delivery workers is a case study in backfire economics in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentYeah, that tracks. But I see restaurants trying to get away with less staff nowadays. There are somewhat upscale places (as far as the food they’re selling) that work like a fast food restaurant...Yeah, that tracks. But I see restaurants trying to get away with less staff nowadays. There are somewhat upscale places (as far as the food they’re selling) that work like a fast food restaurant where you order at the counter, bus your own stuff at the end, and use disposable utensils. Also, during the pandemic they got people used to using your phone to order, so some places do that now. I’ve seen a service where the bill has a QR code you can use.
In hotels, daily maid service seems to be rare since the pandemic?
Businesses are complicated and it can be hard to tell what’s a loss leader. They will try stuff. It kind of doesn’t matter if it’s a loss leader or not; cutting costs is something they’re going to try. Gotta pay the rent somehow.
From the article:
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