krellor's recent activity

  1. Comment on Privacy woes and autonomy, where do I go now? in ~tech

    krellor
    Link Parent
    I would also suggest that if going the route of flashing older model consumer routers, pick up a spare or two when you can, and flash and configure the spare before swapping it into production....

    I would also suggest that if going the route of flashing older model consumer routers, pick up a spare or two when you can, and flash and configure the spare before swapping it into production.

    Really brings down the stress level.

    2 votes

  2. Comment on Privacy woes and autonomy, where do I go now? in ~tech

    krellor
    Link Parent
    I just wanted to add to this that wherever you land on privacy, one you've considered the tradeoffs and do what is worthwhile to do, make peace with the rest. I see a lot of people really go to...

    I just wanted to add to this that wherever you land on privacy, one you've considered the tradeoffs and do what is worthwhile to do, make peace with the rest. I see a lot of people really go to extreme lengths, and then still agonize and spend precious mental energy on what they can't control. I understand lobbying or supporting change, but not tying yourself into knots daily about it.

    5 votes

  3. Comment on Privacy woes and autonomy, where do I go now? in ~tech

    krellor
    (edited )
    Link
    You can't really have privacy if you don't control your router. It's just too low down in the OSI model. I run my own router and firewalls on protectli hardware, force the use of Ad guard DNS on...

    You can't really have privacy if you don't control your router. It's just too low down in the OSI model. I run my own router and firewalls on protectli hardware, force the use of Ad guard DNS on clients with custom filter lists, segment my networks to keep my stuff separate, etc. I also use browser plugins like ublock origin, umatrix, and privacy badger.

    At a certain point you need to decide what trade offs are worth what level of privacy, and realize that spouse/kids might feel differently.

    I would also counsel that you should balance your concerns with a broader perspective. Take extra steps when privacy is most important, but don't worry yourself sick about it constantly. It's unfortunately something baked into a lot of technology, so focus on what you can control, mitigate, and avoid, and make peace with what risks you do accept, for your own sanity.

    There are also services that do a good job of automating your data removal from brokers. Incogni does a good job cleaning up those behind the scenes brokers, and onerep focuses more on public people search sites. Both will get you added to suppression lists.

    Edit: accidently made this a reply to another comment, moved it to its own top level.

    Also who your ISP is probably doesn't matter as much as you think, especially if you manage your own router, use your own DNS, and use a VPN when warranted.

    12 votes

  4. Comment on Fifth American tourist arrested at Turks and Caicos airport after ammo allegedly found in luggage in ~travel

    krellor
    Link Parent
    Revolvers are a bit of an odd one out, and like you, I touched on speed loaders in a different comment. But my advice to someone daily carrying a revolver is that if you really need to reload, and...

    Revolvers are a bit of an odd one out, and like you, I touched on speed loaders in a different comment. But my advice to someone daily carrying a revolver is that if you really need to reload, and you don't have a speed loader, there's a good chance you won't have time in an actual conflict.

    That being said, you can buy small caliber rounds in boxes of 50 or 25 that have a plastic keeper for the individual bullets, so even in the ill-advised situation that someone is keeping a box of ammo in their purse or glove compartment, it shouldn't be too difficult to keep them organized and accounted for.

    Just my two cents though.

    4 votes

  5. Comment on Experimental real property tax basis-set rate based on usable area per person in ~finance

    krellor
    Link Parent
    I think you misunderstand the plots, but also, they aren't really the big picture of my comment. The x axis of the plots is "buckets" of homes by assessed value, and the y axis is the amount of...

    I think you misunderstand the plots, but also, they aren't really the big picture of my comment.

    The x axis of the plots is "buckets" of homes by assessed value, and the y axis is the amount of taxes collected. The point I made with the plot is that you need to be careful with policy to exactingly look at negative outcomes. In this case, it looks like the tax burden is shifting onto lower value properties, which strongly correlate to lower income household. I.e., regressively increasing taxes on the poor.

    The larger point I was making is that even if you swap variables, change the formula, etc, you will keep finding these unfavorable outcomes, or introduce ways to game the system. This is in part due to the fundamental maths of fitting curves to data, but also the nature of proxy variables.

    I linked the data I used and described the methods, and if you are interested in the policy side of things I think it would be fun to play with.

    Back to the big picture, in general I think a simpler and more direct policy is better than something based on people per area. For one, keeping up on who lives where is a challenge, and as I discussed, proxy variables create l bring their own baggage.

    It is possible for a county to establish zoning and development requirements that simply require x units per acre for development in specific zones. Then you can't even bypass the intent even if you are rich and don't care about the tax burden. Or require a permitting process that has a review with requirements to address elements of the municipalities 50 year plan, e.g., address density, walkabout, etc.

    Some other folks suggest a land only tax, and I like those in theory for residential, but they fall down for commercial parcels.

    So my real feedback here is just that simple and direct policy is usually the best first approach, with added complexity only when needs must.

  6. Comment on Fifth American tourist arrested at Turks and Caicos airport after ammo allegedly found in luggage in ~travel

    krellor
    Link Parent
    Think of the k9 friends you would make! I will say, I've had residue detected when going through screening. They just did a manual pat down and check of the bags. It wasn't much of a hassle. That...

    Think of the k9 friends you would make!

    I will say, I've had residue detected when going through screening. They just did a manual pat down and check of the bags. It wasn't much of a hassle. That must have been 20 years ago though.

    2 votes

  7. Comment on Fifth American tourist arrested at Turks and Caicos airport after ammo allegedly found in luggage in ~travel

    krellor
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    I can see the range situation, though I generally view it as sloppy as well. I was just at the range with friends, and fired many rounds of different calibers. We kept the boxes in a range bag,...

    I can see the range situation, though I generally view it as sloppy as well. I was just at the range with friends, and fired many rounds of different calibers. We kept the boxes in a range bag, and didn't leave any loose ammo outside of the bag, which securely zips shut.

    However, the person I replied to was saying that daily carry makes it easy to lose bullets, and that is what I was directly addressing. You shouldn't be losing bullets through carrying your firearm throughout the day.

    Again, I say this as someone who grew up hunting and fishing, who has a gun safe with a half dozen guns, and who used to concealed carry.

    Edit: and to be clear, I'm not saying a loose bullet in a range bag is sloppy either. That's the point of the range bag, to keep it all together. But don't fly with your range bag without clearing it of bullets.

    13 votes

  8. Comment on Fifth American tourist arrested at Turks and Caicos airport after ammo allegedly found in luggage in ~travel

    krellor
    Link Parent
    I used to carry concealed when I did volunteer work that put me in dangerous situations. I don't recall ever having loose ammo around, nor do I really understand how that would happen. Why have...

    I used to carry concealed when I did volunteer work that put me in dangerous situations. I don't recall ever having loose ammo around, nor do I really understand how that would happen. Why have loose ammo at all, vs loaded magazines? Why would you clear the bullet from the chamber and leave the bullet loose, or take bullets from a magazine? Were you carrying boxes of ammo with you and one for loose? Loading or unloading magazines in the car?

    It's just sloppy to lose track of ammo. The rigor and routine that go into safe gun handling should preclude it. That should include being at the range with friends with many boxes of ammo. It's not that bullets are dangerous on their own, it's that it indicates a lack of care in the management of the firearm.

    While I agree it's not the end of the world, I disagree that it should be hand waived away just because controlling the gun is more important. Part of how you control the gun is having a structured set of rules for how and when you manage the gun.

    I will say that I also fly a lot, and I still completely empty my bags that I travel with to make sure there are no surprises. If you own guns, its double important to be careful with your bags.

    19 votes

  9. Comment on What programming/technical projects have you been working on? in ~comp

    krellor
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    I made the dumbest Wordle solver and I love it. I play the daily NYT Wordle on hard mode. Sometimes you get weird combinations of right letter, wrong location and can struggle to think of any word...

    I made the dumbest Wordle solver and I love it.

    I play the daily NYT Wordle on hard mode. Sometimes you get weird combinations of right letter, wrong location and can struggle to think of any word that fits all criteria. The web based Wordle solvers either give you spoilers or implement the logic incorrectly. E.g., you could put the letter A as a correct letter but in the wrong spot, say location 3. And then the Wordle solvers will suggest a dozen words with the letter A in the third location.

    I decided to write my own solver. I wanted to be able to use it from my phone, didn't want to deal with cross compiling to a mobile app, and didn't want to make yet another container that I self host.

    So I made it in Excel, using straight Excel functions, generating a massive sparse boolean matrix and doing chain boolean logic for the set logic of intersections of sets. I used one of the official Scrabble word lists for the dictionary, and scraped the shortlist of Wordle answers from the JS array of Wordle itself.

    So now I have an Excel file on my phone that is a simple easy to use Wordle solver that actually properly implements the set logic to suggest only viable answers.

    6 votes

  10. Comment on Experimental real property tax basis-set rate based on usable area per person in ~finance

    krellor
    Link Parent
    Well, I would suggest you download the data and examine it yourself. That said, the plots are pretty simple. I took all the parcel data, and filtered to residential parcels. Then I used the...

    Well, I would suggest you download the data and examine it yourself. That said, the plots are pretty simple. I took all the parcel data, and filtered to residential parcels. Then I used the structure square feet, acreage, etc, to compute a "tax unit" for your scheme. I then summed the actual taxes collected and the proposed taxes collected on units in assessed value ranges. That is what the plots show. The correlation value I gave is simply the correlation between asseessed value and your taxes collected. I used 2023 tax data, state parcel mds records, and filtered and joined from there.

    I think if you play with the data yourself you will see a few things:

    1. The data that the government actually accurately has is limited and cumbersome to work with, which matters a lot when you base their tax bill on it. Creating new data is actually a lot of work and expensive at a large scale.

    2. Tweaking and adjusting a formula to fit certain outcomes usually just leads to more edge cases, and that is true of general numerical analysis. The more you constrain or torture a quadrature to have certain traits, the more you trade-off somewhere else.

    3. There are a lot of edge cases that are smoothed away by using market value. If your plot of land includes a drainage or cliff feature that can't be developed, the price bakes that in, along with many other things like desirable location, etc. acreage and square footage misses that. Encoding those things specifically in any formula would be tough and the list of exceptions long. Further, the taxes between an identical structure and plot should differ based on if it is in the middle of town that thousands of people want to live in, vs out on a swamp with 5 people. Desirability is also baked into market value, and that is where density is important.

    And to my initial suggestion: if the goal is to maximize density or promote affordable housing, etc, then we already have simple and direct policy interventions we know work. What counties lack is the political will to implement them.

    Finally, while it is true that any flat tax is regressive, that's a bit beside the point when the contrasted scheme isn't actually flat, but rather disproportionately taxes lower cost housing.

    I really, really think if you play with the available data you will see the difficulty in tuning a function that is fair and workable.

    3 votes

  11. Comment on Experimental real property tax basis-set rate based on usable area per person in ~finance

    krellor
    Link Parent
    Unfortunately, I don't have much time, so this is a quick post. I have worked in higher ed and now in an odd intersection of education and public policy (health policy), so I am fairly familiar...

    Unfortunately, I don't have much time, so this is a quick post. I have worked in higher ed and now in an odd intersection of education and public policy (health policy), so I am fairly familiar with policy considerations. While it is true that people can be chaotic, that doesn't mean policy should be so complex as to create unintended consequences. However, that's the philosophy, so let's get to the numbers.

    I ran your suggested scheme against actual MD property parcel and tax datasets. The result is that your proposed scheme is a regressive tax against affordable housing compared to actual taxes collected. Figure:

    Actual vs. proposed taxes by home value bracket.

    I don't have much time to slice and dice the data or give a full rundown, but ignore the absolute dollar figures and focus on the graph's shape. Your proposed scheme shifts more of the taxes collected to lower-value properties. The difference in absolute terms is due to using state-level vs. county-level data. That means funding the counties at current service levels would increase the tax burden on lower-income households (based on a quick check of Fed data in the FRED system).

    I also calculated the correlation between the current assessed value and the taxes collected under your scheme, with a result of 0.006918505. This effectively means there is little to no correlation between taxes collected and the property's value. The issue is that it creates the opportunity for unintended consequences, like a regressive scheme.

    I think there are ways to "correct" this, but it basically adds in progressive schemes based on fair market value or other factors.

    Another, possibly larger issue in practical terms is that things like bedroom count aren't reliably tracked by state or federal sources. The Fed issues reports with that data but bases it on MLS data, which isn't always reliable. It would require creating a new process to keep that data accurate, let alone also keep track of the people in the units.

    So, I'm left with my initial assessment: complex formulas, or even not-so-complex formulas, lead to unintended consequences. But I encourage you to slice and dice the data yourself.

    Edit: I also fired up MATLAB and did a quick dissection of the qualitative behavior of your proposed formula, fixing different values and optimizing the taxes collected, and there are definitely ways to game it as a developer looking to maximize profit. This is where the former math teacher in me says, "reproduction of the result is left as an exercise for the reader."

    Have a great night!

    4 votes

  12. Comment on Experimental real property tax basis-set rate based on usable area per person in ~finance

    krellor
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    Can you give a closed form mathematical expression of what you envision, glossing over the exact coefficients? Because the articulation you give is hard to follow. If I do follow you are saying...

    Can you give a closed form mathematical expression of what you envision, glossing over the exact coefficients? Because the articulation you give is hard to follow.

    If I do follow you are saying tax based on the number of people supported per square foot? Or some such?

    The general problem is that most calculations based on bedrooms, square footage, lot size, etc. can either be gamed or have unintended consequences.

    For example, I don't follow how or why a large manor with many bedrooms would be assumed to have the same number of people as a starter home, unless we just make that arbitrary. But fixing assumptions limits the flexibility. What about a large multigenerational house in a more rural part of an otherwise urban country?

    You also mention varying the tax rate based on the proportion of the lot that is covered in finished square feet, sort of. But I could game that by building an additional floor, gaining square feet on the same lot, but still only having the same number of people living there.

    Generally I look at public policy like I look at software development. Simple is better. The more complex, the more prone to unintended consequence. If the goal is to tax higher value properties more, why not introduce progressive rates based on fair market value. A% tax on the value up to $249k, B% on $250-499k, etc? (Edit: or discount multi family structures, etc)

    That would avoid some of the gaming of the system. I think that by the time you addressed all the edge cases in your proposed scheme, new unintended consequences would creep in.

    I would also say that the dirty secret of counties and municipalities is that they are disincentived to support affordable housing, because it costs them in tax incentives and reduces subsequent revenue. But the fixes are relatively well known. Developers will build affordable housing when they receive low cost capital to do so. This has worked well even in high cost of living areas like the DC metro area.

    Edit: here's a gift NYT article describing the sort of developer partnerships I'm describing. This Is Public Housing. Just Don’t Call It That..

    Complex formulas don't seem like a better approach then simple laws and subsidies that directly require a certain amount of affordable rentals and other units.

    2 votes

  13. Comment on Experimental real property tax basis-set rate based on usable area per person in ~finance

    krellor
    Link Parent
    I don't really see those conclusions in the linked paper. That paper seems to be arguing that split rate taxes have the following effect: Decreases tax delinquency. Slightly decreases land value....

    I don't really see those conclusions in the linked paper. That paper seems to be arguing that split rate taxes have the following effect:

    • Decreases tax delinquency.
    • Slightly decreases land value.
    • Increases overall taxable value through increased commercial development.
    • Lowers tax burdens for residential owners, with the greatest relief going to low income neighborhoods.

    So it seems more about promoting commercial investment, which the paper says currently only happens with tax incentives, while also lowering residential tax burdens.

    Am I missing something from the paper?

    3 votes

  14. Comment on Fifth American tourist arrested at Turks and Caicos airport after ammo allegedly found in luggage in ~travel

    krellor
    Link Parent
    I've concealed carried at times in the past. There is a big difference between Cheerios at the bottom of a purse, and bullets. You really shouldn't treat your regular backpack or purse like a...

    I've concealed carried at times in the past. There is a big difference between Cheerios at the bottom of a purse, and bullets. You really shouldn't treat your regular backpack or purse like a range bag, and you really shouldn't daily carry loose bullets. They come in neatly organized boxes for a reason, magazines are a thing, and even revolvers have quick loaders.

    I've forgotten a can of cold brew coffee in my bag at the airport, but the standard of care you should give drinks and guns and ammo is different. Even if for no other reason than the consequence of having it unexpectedly be in a bag at the airport.

    Yes, bullets aren't going to hurt anyone on their own. But losing track of bullets is a sign of a sloppy or careless gun owner.

    Edit: and yes, if you don't have a dedicated range bag and lose bullets in your backpack, then you should still know to do a full unload of your bag before packing.

    13 votes

  15. Comment on Experimental real property tax basis-set rate based on usable area per person in ~finance

    krellor
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    I'm not following. A charge like $x per assumed person? If yes, then a single family residence could be anything from a 2 bed one bath starter home around 1200 sqft, to an 8,000 sqft manor set...

    I'm not following. A charge like $x per assumed person?

    If yes, then a single family residence could be anything from a 2 bed one bath starter home around 1200 sqft, to an 8,000 sqft manor set back on 20 acres. Trying to infer the number of people on dwelling type seems like it would most likely favor high income earners. E.g. the average number of people per single family dwelling is 3.4, but if you pick a "fair" rate for that number it will be peanuts to high income families. If you base it on number of bedrooms then you incentivize fewer bedrooms per house.

    Ultimately this seems like an inexact proxy variable for lot square footage, finished square footage, and house finish. If your goal is to incentivize higher density housing, which is less profitable to develop, then you need to offer tax incentives or low rate capital to developers in exchange for incorporating these units in new neighborhoods and rebuilds.

    As a final note, most governments struggle to keep up on simple processes like market value. Adding a complex system makes it more prone to waste, error, fraud, and bias.

    6 votes

  16. Comment on Two pizzas for me - What is this article trying to say? in ~tech

    krellor
    Link Parent
    Over employed, meaning having multiple jobs. Drives me crazy when people don't define acronyms. Tildes doesn't charge per character to post.

    Over employed, meaning having multiple jobs. Drives me crazy when people don't define acronyms. Tildes doesn't charge per character to post.

    14 votes

  17. Comment on I am worthless, I couldn't write a good article or draft to save my life in ~creative

    krellor
    Link Parent
    This might be a "wherever you go, there you are" moment. I think you are just putting too much pressure on yourself. It's not about your external space, it's about your internal one and giving...

    This might be a "wherever you go, there you are" moment. I think you are just putting too much pressure on yourself. It's not about your external space, it's about your internal one and giving yourself permission to be silly, or to write something that sucks. You've got to embrace failure and keep going, not in some bleak grudge match fashion, but with humor. Every bad story is one developed idea to draw on later that will eventually yield a good story.

    4 votes

  18. Comment on I'm curious how people on here stay politically engaged and aware while maintaining mental health? in ~life

    krellor
    Link
    I think you've gotten a few good perspectives here, but a few things jump out at me. First, what are your news sources? Are you really consuming news, or outrage bait? Good news sources,...

    I think you've gotten a few good perspectives here, but a few things jump out at me.

    First, what are your news sources? Are you really consuming news, or outrage bait? Good news sources, especially to cover a broad array of world events, like the NYT, NPRs Up First podcast, the NYT daily podcast, etc. will expose you to everything from Israel to Ukraine to the Darien gap, domestic issues, economics, cultural trends, and trade tensions.

    So reexamine your news sources.

    Second, it sounds like you need to focus on your life and how you are grounded in it. For me I consume vast amounts of news, much of it negative. But I'm rooted in my own life and perspectives, what I do to contribute good to the world, and I know enough about how all these issues are intertwined that I don't have these feelings of why is this one person, like Biden, not just fixing this outrage of the moment.

    So make sure you know what good you are doing, what your limits are, and the complex nature of the world overall.

    Lastly I would say that developing the toolkit to know that while it is normal and human to experience emotions when hearing about news, and I have been moved to tears at times hearing of personal accounts, it isn't healthy to let it determine your mood or mindset, and there is a skill in keeping news at an intellectual rather than emotional level.

    7 votes

  19. Comment on I am worthless, I couldn't write a good article or draft to save my life in ~creative

    krellor
    Link Parent
    What do you mean by useful? I think when you are trying to develop creatively you just need reps in. You might write a dozen stories for every one that ends up being shared. Write a story about...

    What do you mean by useful? I think when you are trying to develop creatively you just need reps in. You might write a dozen stories for every one that ends up being shared.

    Write a story about someone with the b list super power of giving people writers block who uses it on authors who are rude to him at conventions. Or something completely different.

    For news, do you like happy, or a broader view? You could write a series of imagined vignettes from the interviews of people going through the Darien gap, or something light-hearted.

    I think the key is just to write something even if you think it sucks because that is how you get the faucet going, along with things like brainstorming and steam of consciousness. You rarely just have the idea for a great work. It is iterated over time.

    8 votes

  20. Comment on I am worthless, I couldn't write a good article or draft to save my life in ~creative

    krellor
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    Write about not having anything to write. Ideas beget ideas. Having creative ideas is a combination of developed skill, experience, and priming yourself to be creative. So pick any idea, and...

    Write about not having anything to write.

    Ideas beget ideas. Having creative ideas is a combination of developed skill, experience, and priming yourself to be creative.

    So pick any idea, and develop it a bit, see if that leads to more. Change up the format. Maybe play or develop a table top game scenario, or read one and stream of consciousness a side story, or write a diverging storyline. Or watch the news and write a story based on any topic that strikes your fancy.

    As soon as something seems fun, run with it.

    11 votes