papasquat's recent activity
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Comment on What’s a point that you think many people missed? in ~talk
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Comment on What’s a point that you think many people missed? in ~talk
papasquat LinkTax brackets and progressive tax systems in general. I can't tell you how many times I've heard people say "yeah I'd earn more if I took that position, but it'd bump me into a higher tax bracket...Tax brackets and progressive tax systems in general.
I can't tell you how many times I've heard people say "yeah I'd earn more if I took that position, but it'd bump me into a higher tax bracket and then I'd be worse off anyway".That's literally not possible. Tax brackets tax your income earned above that threshold, not all of your income.
There's no way to earn more money, but take home less of it because of income tax, all other things equal.
Similar thoughts to "tax write-offs", which many people think somehow means the government pays you for the entire value of the thing you're writing off.
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Comment on Feeling weird about my career with respect to AI in ~life
papasquat Link ParentYeah, I think an Iain Banks esque culture future is the absolute most positive scenario if the technology pans out. I don't know if it's feasible to get from where we are as a society now to there...Yeah, I think an Iain Banks esque culture future is the absolute most positive scenario if the technology pans out. I don't know if it's feasible to get from where we are as a society now to there though. I don't even know if it's feasible without radically changing how the human mind works.
We evolved in a world with scarcity, where labor was valuable. It's not only how we were brought up, it's how our DNA has shaped the physical structure of our bodies and brains. I'm not even sure we are compatible with the idea of having no real "utility" or "purpose", and I definitely know that our political systems aren't.
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Comment on Feeling weird about my career with respect to AI in ~life
papasquat Link ParentYeah, I mean that would align with the first scenario, where the promise of AIs long term capabilities are overstated. All of the insane investment and speculation is built up by at least some...Yeah, I mean that would align with the first scenario, where the promise of AIs long term capabilities are overstated.
All of the insane investment and speculation is built up by at least some hope that that'll be the future, and all of the actual problem solving will be able to be accomplished by AI alone.
I hope you're right, but even if you are, that would coincide with a major market crash and a ton of unemployment and poverty once the reality of the limitations are made obvious.
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Comment on You are a better writer than AI (yes, YOU!) in ~creative
papasquat Link ParentPersonally, I feel like I can very quickly tell when someone hands me unedited output from an LLM. Of course, that could be confirmation bias though. I'm only identifying the LLM generated...Personally, I feel like I can very quickly tell when someone hands me unedited output from an LLM. Of course, that could be confirmation bias though. I'm only identifying the LLM generated documents I identify, and all the other LLM generated documents I get fly under my radar.
I don't feel like that's the case, because of my own experience generating documents with LLMs though.
For me, even if LLM generated documents were useful, getting one still feels disrespectful. It's almost like asking a question and someone replying back with a https://letmegooglethat.com/ link.
It kind of makes me fee like l I could have just done that easily myself, and the fact that you don't think I thought of that sort of insults my intelligence.
Like, it just feels cheap and disposable, and like there must be a better solution than to just have something dump something into an LLM, then paste the output into an email.
It's tough to get at exactly how I feel about it, but I just generally don't like receiving stuff like that.
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Comment on You are a better writer than AI (yes, YOU!) in ~creative
papasquat Link ParentHonestly, the only use I've found for it is communication that no one reads. If I have some weekly status report or meeting summary or something that I know people want for some reason, but won't...Honestly, the only use I've found for it is communication that no one reads.
If I have some weekly status report or meeting summary or something that I know people want for some reason, but won't actually read? Yeah, it's a good task for an LLM.
If it's something I think people will actually need to glean useful information from, I need to review it anyway. It's almost always filled with so many inaccuracies and fluffy language that I need to rewrite it anyway. At that point I have to wonder if it's even saving me any time.
It usually isn't.
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Comment on Feeling weird about my career with respect to AI in ~life
papasquat LinkThe depressing thing about AI is that regardless of the long term viability of the strategy companies are taking right now, it's only bad news. If AIs long term capabilities are overstated, we've...The depressing thing about AI is that regardless of the long term viability of the strategy companies are taking right now, it's only bad news.
If AIs long term capabilities are overstated, we've wasted a whole shit ton of money, effort, and time forcing something to be used that will just result in tens of thousands of companies going bankrupt and millions losing their jobs.
If they're not overstated, human beings have lost the competitive edge to do be given any sort of actual, rewarding work. Solving problems is interesting. Making art is interesting. Writing code is interesting. The long term path of AI if everything pans out the way they say it will is that humans are really only there to provide some sort of intent to the AI.
User: "Make me a useful product"
AI: alright. Here are the 10 most profitable ideas I have. Which would you like to pursue?
User: whatever. The one that will make me the most money.Any sort of actual interesting work is totally stripped away. That's a best case scenario if this stuff pans out too.
The whole thing makes me really cynical about the future, and has turned me into sort of a luddite.
In the industrial revolution, there was some refuge against those feelings. Namely, "yes, my sweat and manual labor are no longer valuable, but I, or my kids can become a skilled laborer instead"
When the information revolution and automation started eliminating skilled labor, it was "yes, my skill with my hands is no longer valuable, but I or my kids can use our minds to solve problems instead".
Now that it seems like our minds aren't valuable anymore, what's even left?
In my perfect world, not only would this technology not exist; it wouldn't be possible to exist.
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Comment on What are some stories of progressivism gone wrong in implementation? in ~society
papasquat Link ParentThe issue is that paramedics, nurses, social workers and firefighters don't do policing. Their jobs don't involve walking a beat, patrolling an area of a city. So they'd never really be in a...The issue is that paramedics, nurses, social workers and firefighters don't do policing. Their jobs don't involve walking a beat, patrolling an area of a city. So they'd never really be in a situation to actually respond, unless someone called them there first. The police are ostensibly supposed to fill that role. They're supposed to be deeply plugged in and woven into the community so that they notice when something is going wrong.
The fact that they don't in many cases doesn't mean that we don't need police. It means that we're doing policing wrong very very often.
People's concept of police is the USA are shaped by the way police departments currently work, and especially the high profile abuses of power by those departments. There's no reason police have to be that way though. There are police who don't carry firearms, after all.
At the end of the day, a police officer is just someone whos job it is to keep order in some way. The way they do that is shaped by the policies we build around policing.
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Comment on Mystery trader garners $400,000-plus windfall on Nicolas Maduro's capture in ~society
papasquat Link ParentLeaking information about top secret military operations is... bad. Ignoring the moral issues with this specific military operation, the practice of leaking military secrets for personal profit...Leaking information about top secret military operations is... bad. Ignoring the moral issues with this specific military operation, the practice of leaking military secrets for personal profit already has a name: treason.
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Comment on On 2016 nostalgia in ~talk
papasquat Link ParentLate 2000s/early 90s for me. Back then, information technology seemed like it was going to make the world a perfect place to live. Everyone would have access to all the worlds information at their...Late 2000s/early 90s for me. Back then, information technology seemed like it was going to make the world a perfect place to live. Everyone would have access to all the worlds information at their fingertips, of course that meant that everyone was going to be smart and no longer ignorant. You'd be able to work from anywhere, and everyone would get a job because the system would be so much more efficient when we do away with paperwork!
I was definitely an early tech-bro that insisted that the old luddite boomers just didn't get it, and that the internet was going to solve all of our problems.
I'm one of those boomers now though.
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Comment on On 2016 nostalgia in ~talk
papasquat Link ParentWow, clubbing being dead is news to me. I graduated college in the early 2000s and never really went to clubs much, and still don't, but I didn't realize that most people aren't either. What do...Wow, clubbing being dead is news to me. I graduated college in the early 2000s and never really went to clubs much, and still don't, but I didn't realize that most people aren't either.
What do young people even do on a Friday night in general now?
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Comment on What are some stories of progressivism gone wrong in implementation? in ~society
papasquat Link ParentUnfortunately this is an arms race. SUVs are safer (in some, limited crash scenarios) for the people inside, at the expense of being much more dangerous for everyone else. It's a tragedy of the...Unfortunately this is an arms race. SUVs are safer (in some, limited crash scenarios) for the people inside, at the expense of being much more dangerous for everyone else.
It's a tragedy of the commons. If everyone drives SUVs, we're all much less safe overall. Crashes are more likely, and when they occur, they're far more likely to be fatal for pedestrians or other drivers.
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Comment on What are some stories of progressivism gone wrong in implementation? in ~society
papasquat Link ParentThe depressing thing is that that's not really true. Advertising can't make everyone want something, but it can make people want something. When the iPod came out, hard drive based mp3 players had...There is an arguement to be made that CAFE encouraged companies to market those beastly monster cars which nurtured the current culture, but no advertising campaign can change everyone’s mind
The depressing thing is that that's not really true. Advertising can't make everyone want something, but it can make people want something.
When the iPod came out, hard drive based mp3 players had already been out for years. They weren't as small as the iPod, but the iPod didn't really do anything radically new. Except for a brilliant, well funded ad campaign. Everyone wanted an iPod. I wanted one, and I didn't even listen to music that much.
This happens constantly with all types of products, many of which aren't even very good.
With a big enough advertising budget, you can get people to want virtually anything. All it takes is paying someone they look up to, crafting an ad campaign that speaks to their values, or fashioning a group identity that people want to belong to, then tie it to a product. You can literally conjure that desire out of thin air. Can you convince everyone? No. You don't need to convince everyone though. You need to convince some people who will take the identity you crafted for them and run with it. Those people will influence others, and pretty soon half of the vehicles you see on the highway are massive pickups with empty, never used beds.
American cars aren't big because Americans want big cars. Americans want big cars because American cars are big. The cars are big because they have better profit margins. Then, of course, the reason they have higher profit margins is because of policy.
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Comment on What are some stories of progressivism gone wrong in implementation? in ~society
papasquat Link ParentI don't know if it's particularly useful to draw conclusions from the fact that institutions in the US formed in support of slavery. The entire US was built on slavery. Any institution that...I don't know if it's particularly useful to draw conclusions from the fact that institutions in the US formed in support of slavery.
The entire US was built on slavery. Any institution that existed during its beginnings played a large hand in supporting slavery, from the census, to the supreme court, to the US Marshalls service and so on.
I think we're a lot better off examining those things as they exist today and weighing their pros and cons rather than how they started.
Secondly, policing is extremely complex, so it's hard to say whether most people want more or less police funding. What most people actually want is to feel safe. Whether they're primarily concerned about safety from criminals or safety from police depends on a whole lot of life experiences and factors about their lives.
In your example, the police department you're talking about likely received that MRAP for free. A tiny police department with 20 officers and virtually no budget could have an MRAP if they wanted to in 2010. The federal government handed them out like candy.
I think most people in a town would rather have 40 uniformed, friendly police officers that are engaged with the community, run foot patrols without harassing people, and respond quickly to calls than 20 officers and an MRAP that they routinely use to enforce warrants. The former is far more expensive than the latter though.
I don't think it's necessarily the budgets that are the problem, it's what those budgets are used for. Well trained, well disciplined officers that are routinely put through and held to de-escalation standards, that are incentivized to make contact with their beats and get to know people, and who you generally trust going to for help are much more accepted all around than guys who run around with t shirts and bullet proof vests carrying ARs, sealed away in unmarked SUVs and who routinely beat up on people.
The budget isn't really the factor in which one you get. Civilian oversight and good governance is.
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Comment on What are some stories of progressivism gone wrong in implementation? in ~society
papasquat Link ParentIsn't this the same situation with working class white people as well? The whole theory behind affirmative action is that a group as a whole is underperforming economically, thus, their...Isn't this the same situation with working class white people as well?
The whole theory behind affirmative action is that a group as a whole is underperforming economically, thus, their underperformance is related to their membership of that group.
If Asians as a whole aren't underperforming, but some individuals still are... Aren't those just normal economic problems?
Like, there are a lot of poor white people too, but white people as a whole aren't poor compared to other racial groups, thus we don't relate individually poor white people as being poor because they're white. Why would it be different for Asian people?
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Comment on What are some stories of progressivism gone wrong in implementation? in ~society
papasquat Link ParentI can give you a similar story from the opposite angle. I work in a government adjacent field in the US. I work in an environment similar to what you're describing. All very technically skilled...I can give you a similar story from the opposite angle. I work in a government adjacent field in the US. I work in an environment similar to what you're describing. All very technically skilled professionals, focused on doing the job to the best of our abilities with zero political bias. We don't get into politics whatsoever if we can help it because it makes what we do harder.
Recently, as a part of the US administration's ideological purity testing, we were forced to spend weeks rifling through documention for anything mentioning "race, diversity, equity, trans, transgender, LGBT, queer, etc.
As you can imagine, there were a lot of "false positives". Race would return documentation about "race conditions" or "race to finish this project", trans would return "transfer" or , "transition infrastructure" and so on. It took days and days to sort through.
Three people who worked for the government showed up at our office. The oldest one looked like he was maybe 24. They had zero experience in our field, likely just graduated college, and had fathers that were someone politically important.
I watched people with 40+ years of experience sit in a hot seat getting grilled by these kids for hours about how funding works, whether the work we do benefits black people over white people, how many hours we spend on DEI, why certain projects get approved and so on. They were totally out of their depth, but needlessly adversarial anyway.
The whole thing was a massive waste of time, pretty demoralizing, and frankly kind of embarrassing.
Ideological purity testing is becoming way more of a right wing activity than a left wing one, at least here in the US.
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Comment on What are some stories of progressivism gone wrong in implementation? in ~society
papasquat Link ParentI'll add (and this is just my experience, ADHD manifests differently for different people), at times, forcing myself to focus is almost physically painful. In elementary school, we had this common...I'll add (and this is just my experience, ADHD manifests differently for different people), at times, forcing myself to focus is almost physically painful.
In elementary school, we had this common handwriting task every day: you had a workbook, and you were supposed to copy text from it into three separate sheets: A wide ruled yellow sheet with guides for letters, a wide ruled green sheet without guides, and finally a normal ruled white sheet.
Once you filled all three sheets, you could do whatever you wanted until the end of the period.
I wanted to fill those sheets. I tried so hard to do it and stay on task. Every time I forced the pencil into my hand and started writing, this gnawing, aching pain would fill my head and chest. It was this draw and pull to stop doing this boring thing. It almost feels like holding your breath underwater. You know you can probably force yourself to stay under a little longer, but it becomes increasingly uncomfortable and even painful, and you know, no matter what, you won't be able to hold out for too long.
When I finally stop doing the thing, I get a wave of relief and then daydream or stare out the window for fifteen minute.
In that whole year, I never got past the green page unfortunately.
I'm medicated now, which helps a ton, but I still have lesser versions of that feeling when I have to sort my emails, fill out forms, pay bills, and so on. Ive gotten better at forcing myself to do it, and I can do it way longer without feeling like I'm suffocating, but that tendency is still there for me. -
Comment on What are some stories of progressivism gone wrong in implementation? in ~society
papasquat Link ParentYeah, I think rules like this are generally very heavy handed, are unnecessarily hostile, and cause way more problems than they solve. Black clubs don't need to have rules that white people aren't...Yeah, I think rules like this are generally very heavy handed, are unnecessarily hostile, and cause way more problems than they solve.
Black clubs don't need to have rules that white people aren't allowed there. White people are usually more than welcome to attend a black club. It's just that the culture in the club exclusively caters to black people, so that's who shows up to the club for the most part. Sure, a few white people go, but they don't take over, and they're not a problem.
I don't think there's really a danger of men taking over women's discussion spaces. My wife goes to a female centric book club, which is technically open to anyone, but no men have ever shown up, because the culture of the club just doesn't cater to men. They don't have to turn themselves into knots about explicit rules about who is and is not a man. The group's culture just naturally filters towards women.
Set the culture, and you get the demographics you want. If someone is being disruptive, deal with them on a case by case basis. It really doesn't need to be more complicated than that.
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Comment on What are some stories of progressivism gone wrong in implementation? in ~society
papasquat Link ParentSorry, I didn't realize the original title had 'wokism' in it. My example is of a progressive policy working, but doesn't have anything to do with social justice, so it would have been out of...Sorry, I didn't realize the original title had 'wokism' in it.
My example is of a progressive policy working, but doesn't have anything to do with social justice, so it would have been out of topic with the original title. -
Comment on What are some stories of progressivism gone wrong in implementation? in ~society
papasquat Link ParentOn sexual harassment training, this may be an implementation thing more than a flaw with the idea itself. Most sexual harassment training is boring click through slideshow presentations that don't...On sexual harassment training, this may be an implementation thing more than a flaw with the idea itself.
Most sexual harassment training is boring click through slideshow presentations that don't have any impact. When you boil it down though, it's an attempt to enforce a culture at a workplace.
If you have ever worked at a restaurant, you know that the culture there is usually far different than at a typical corporate job. Its not a coincidence then, that when I worked at restaurants, it was extremely common for me to be groped, touched, have inappropriate comments made about the way I look and so on, while in my corporate job, none of that has ever come close to happening. And I'm a man. It's way worse for women at most restaurants.
I'm not saying that that difference is because of the existence of sexual harassment training, but that the difference is because of culture. There are lots of ways to shape that culture, and training is a piece of that. I think there are definitely ways to make that training effective, and part of a company's overall culture, and there are ways to turn it into a boring, annoying check the block exercise.
And ladders