raze2012's recent activity
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Comment on Our commitment to Windows quality in ~tech
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Comment on Our commitment to Windows quality in ~tech
raze2012 Link ParentPretty much any professional field that utilizes software probably has some critical piece that is Windows only (or at least, limited support on Mac/Linux). I pretty much need that software to do...There are workloads where Windows is defacto neccessary but these are specific.
Pretty much any professional field that utilizes software probably has some critical piece that is Windows only (or at least, limited support on Mac/Linux). I pretty much need that software to do my current job.
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Comment on Why are we still doing this? in ~tech
raze2012 Link ParentMy views are Americentrist, yes. My country's culture is very greedy and all the systems that be reward it, or are lobbied to reward it. Sadly, the lion's share of large tech companies come out of...So you're using 1 country as an example to say that any time a company provides a cheap and good service, it's a honeypot to capture the market?
My views are Americentrist, yes. My country's culture is very greedy and all the systems that be reward it, or are lobbied to reward it.
Sadly, the lion's share of large tech companies come out of here, so it does affect the global market in some ways. Probably not for ride share (because, surprise, public transportation sucks here but is very well regulated in most the rest of the world. And it's even worse for private transportation), but for many web services. The kerfluffle with the last year has had EU work on long term separation from such dependencies.
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Comment on Android to debut "advanced flow" for sideloading unverified applications in ~tech
raze2012 Link ParentI hope my speculation can be proven right or wrong in future litigation. I don't think this will be the last we hear of this. But tech outside of Apple has a horrible track record with using...I hope my speculation can be proven right or wrong in future litigation. I don't think this will be the last we hear of this. But tech outside of Apple has a horrible track record with using "security and privacy" as a justification for changing user facing features.
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Comment on Why are we still doing this? in ~tech
raze2012 Link ParentI see it as drinker's problem. I think it will fail because most people simply won't get addicted to the point where they see 100/month as reasonable. Pennies for a company, but not for modern...If what you are saying is true, then Ed Zitron is wrong: dumping cash into AI is a good idea for investors because we're all going to end up locked into the network and paying $90/month for basic "compute".
I see it as drinker's problem. I think it will fail because most people simply won't get addicted to the point where they see 100/month as reasonable. Pennies for a company, but not for modern society already squeezed out by debt, rent, and subscriptions.
But the effects of the addicted will be truly tragic. Being unable to think without your AI; the metaphor is fairly 1:1. We're already seeing some cases of "AI psychosis" over these matters. Imagine the emotional manipulation telling you you need to continue paying to talk to your "friend", or engage in some parasocial relationship with an AI influencer.
but I would be interested to see an economic argument for how AI can be bad for everyone both in the present and in the future.
I don't have a crystal ball for the far future. Maybe we eventually figure it out and regulate it out to make it a proper next iteration of search and creation. Maybe it becomes 'good enough ' to enact a mass redundancy that makes the Industrial Revolution look like a minor nuisance. Maybe it fizzles out like NFTs and stays on its corner for decades. So many things can happen and each one has a different economic argument.
I can only say the current trajectory isn't sustainable. How we change course even in the near term will be really interesting. And likely catastrophic.
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Comment on Why are we still doing this? in ~tech
raze2012 Link ParentIt is when you realize every streaming service except Netflix is unprofitable. And IMO, this "profitability" is only due to slashing shows, so it won't be sustainable either. The medium...I think Netflix was a bad example by the previous post, that wasn't a honey pot IMO.
It is when you realize every streaming service except Netflix is unprofitable. And IMO, this "profitability" is only due to slashing shows, so it won't be sustainable either.
The medium cannabilized itself in the end, but I could see a timeline where Netflix was the definitive winner and we end up paying 50+ dollars a month for streaming. Or at least, they'll try until everyone jumps ship to YouTube or TikTok
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Comment on Why are we still doing this? in ~tech
raze2012 Link ParentEvery other local service. Pretty much every company competing had to merge with Uber or Lyft to survive....What services did Uber drive out?
Every other local service. Pretty much every company competing had to merge with Uber or Lyft to survive.
https://tracxn.com/d/acquisitions/acquisitions-by-uber/__wAOgbkstxol2NgmW5SFgVp8zBi7klH1GO5ziIlSERR4
Last time I checked, everywhere I visit both those and alternative apps exist.
In the same way YouTube has alternatives, yes. Being a monopoly (or duopoly, in this case) doesn't require 100% control.
From my point of view, everyone benefits.
Because your point of view doesn't the wider picture on how this strategy is anticompetitive. And then how these "winners" lobby to make sure their workers aren't able to be considered employees.
If all you care about convenience, then yes. Monopolies are good. Until they aren't. I'm here because Reddit more or less monopolized the modern forum, and alternatives have run empty on community. I won't think so short sightedly again.
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Comment on Why are we still doing this? in ~tech
raze2012 Link ParentYes, by definition. Amazon, among other companies, became infamous by undercutting competition with a loss center for a service for a good decade. In this time they managed to kill off many other...So... a company providing a useful service at a reasonable/low price is a "honeypot"?
Yes, by definition. Amazon, among other companies, became infamous by undercutting competition with a loss center for a service for a good decade. In this time they managed to kill off many other stores because they could not afford to be insolvent for that long. The trap is set because much of Amazon'scompetition is gone by the time enshittification starts.
That's what this race to the bottom with AI is doing. Except now there's not just one hit tech company in town.
apparently it's to maintain the same pricing for decades
Prices went up, selection got worse. I don't know how you can call this "maintenance".
Or do they have to have shittier offering from the get go, is that more "honest"?
Given the above scenario explained: yes.
There's nothing wrong with using a service while it's cheap and good and paid for by investors, when the alternative is just not having a service at all.
If a service isn't profitable, it is not entitled to exist. This strategy just means the rich gets richer, and running a competitive business becomes how much money you pump into something, not the quality of the service.
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Comment on Android to debut "advanced flow" for sideloading unverified applications in ~tech
raze2012 Link ParentI'll take freedom over security in this case. The current workaround was already needing to go into settings to allow apps to install from unknown sources. if those 5 extra clicks wasn't enogh...I'm not sure there's any way around it?
I'll take freedom over security in this case. The current workaround was already needing to go into settings to allow apps to install from unknown sources. if those 5 extra clicks wasn't enogh friction, I don't think the answer is adding even more friction.
But for any serious competitior, paying $25 for an id check doesn't seem like all that big a hurdle?
Less about the id check and more about giving Google to shut down any app it disagrees with, even if it's not on the Play store. Emulation and adult apps are the most obvious targets here.
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Comment on Android to debut "advanced flow" for sideloading unverified applications in ~tech
raze2012 Link ParentI sure hope the EU sees through this and shuts them down. They are already playing Cat and Mouse with Apple, so it's strange that Google decided to join in the rat race.I sure hope the EU sees through this and shuts them down. They are already playing Cat and Mouse with Apple, so it's strange that Google decided to join in the rat race.
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Comment on Android to debut "advanced flow" for sideloading unverified applications in ~tech
raze2012 Link ParentThey aren't, IMO. Adding a day of delay is way more friction that needing to toggle a few settings. And that was already lost in court. This whole goal is to shut down alternative app store...imo the steps listed here are justified for protecting the average user
They aren't, IMO. Adding a day of delay is way more friction that needing to toggle a few settings. And that was already lost in court. This whole goal is to shut down alternative app store competition (and ofc gather data. But that's alwasys Google's MO).
We're already down the slipperly slope here. So I'm not giving any
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Comment on Android to debut "advanced flow" for sideloading unverified applications in ~tech
raze2012 Link ParentI understand the smokescreen of why. I know the real reason is to add friction to alternativre app stores. Which I thought was a case they already lost.I understand the smokescreen of why. I know the real reason is to add friction to alternativre app stores. Which I thought was a case they already lost.
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Comment on Why are we still doing this? in ~tech
raze2012 LinkPretty good read. In essence, the math isn't mathing, and it's tiring to hear "but it will get there one day!", with no vision whatsoever in how. we're well past the Moore's law era, so compute...Pretty good read. In essence, the math isn't mathing, and it's tiring to hear "but it will get there one day!", with no vision whatsoever in how. we're well past the Moore's law era, so compute naturally getting faster and cheaper isn't that convincing.
The subscription angle was definitely a mistake. But likely an inevitable one. Early in the 20's, companies were still making strategies like they were in the '10's, and that quickly became untenable. It seems like (from my brief exposure) that they are trying to rectify this with agentic coding, but the pushback seems to already be slowly happening when companies need to pay as they go. Because agents can use a suprising amount of compute for something a professional program could have done in minutes. The milk analogy in the article rings true there:
here’s no way to anticipate how many tokens a prompt will actually burn, which makes any kind of budgeting a non-starter. It’s like going to the supermarket and committing to buy a gallon of milk, not knowing if it’ll cost you $5 or $50.
But hey, if companies prefer that to a consistently paid employee, so be it.
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Comment on Why are we still doing this? in ~tech
raze2012 Link ParentBut that's the honeypot. They make it dirt cheap, make people rely on it, and then snap the trap shut once the market is captured. Gmail is shoving gemini into its basic service and ruining old,...But that's the honeypot. They make it dirt cheap, make people rely on it, and then snap the trap shut once the market is captured. Gmail is shoving gemini into its basic service and ruining old, pre-AI features (I miss inbox tabs). an uber for 20 miles can easily cost me $70+. Netflix was $8/month for nearly everything, and now it's triple the price with a small fraction of its library.
As the author said, Uber was smart because their model didn't rely on consistent subscriptions, and I'm glad I could just cut it off when needed. Would the same happen if Claude went to 100/month but it's integral in your workflow?
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Comment on The kids are all right - Surprising studies show young people are doing better than previous generations in many ways in ~life
raze2012 Link ParentI'm worried if this is a "K shaped" generation. I don't think this necessarily contradicts other studies that kids are worse off. It might also be polarizing that the "have" kids are doing better...I'm worried if this is a "K shaped" generation. I don't think this necessarily contradicts other studies that kids are worse off. It might also be polarizing that the "have" kids are doing better while the"have nots" are doing worse.
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Comment on New York Times quiz: Who’s a better writer: AI or humans? in ~tech
raze2012 Link ParentIt's an interesting exercise in both approaches. But I didn't necessarily see it as "oh you prefer human/AI" as the conclusion tries to tell me. The gap is closing in small, isolated passages?...It's an interesting exercise in both approaches. But I didn't necessarily see it as "oh you prefer human/AI" as the conclusion tries to tell me.
This doesn’t mean that A.I. is “better” at writing than humans, but it does suggest that the gap is closing.
The gap is closing in small, isolated passages? okay. I don't think that's the value writers make a living off of, though. It's an odd "experiment" because:
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I'm not necessarily a huge reader per se. I'm well read but I wouldn't say my "taste" in books is high class nor posses a critical eye. It's like asking a casual moviegoer if they preferred Oppenheimer or Barbie; there's arguments to what's better written/directed, but ultimately it will come down to what people enjoyed more. Not whatever qualifications critics will use for their yearly awards.
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AI is usually fine with small, contained tasks. It's the issue that arises with scale when you say "generate an entire article about topic X" or "write a novel about Y genre with ABC parameters". It's very much like a dream; the longer and closer you look into it, the more it breaks down and crumbles under scrutiny. You can't scrutinize single paragraphs that easily.
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Comment on A survey of 1,000 hiring managers found that 59% say they emphasize AI’s role in layoffs because it is viewed more favorably than saying layoffs or hiring freezes in ~tech
raze2012 (edited )Link ParentWouldn't that also fall under "plain ol' economic conditions"? In a recession, the most junior positions get cut or frozen first. Also, never discount outsourcing where applicable. There's a...Stanford University economics professor Erik Brynjolfsson has documented a 13% relative decline in employment for early-career workers in AI-exposed jobs.
Wouldn't that also fall under "plain ol' economic conditions"? In a recession, the most junior positions get cut or frozen first.
Also, never discount outsourcing where applicable. There's a constant narrative of "tech companies overhired over the pandemic". But note that, despite these layoffs, overall employee counts barely budged. They may have even increased. In addition, more and more H1-B visas are approaved year by year despite there being more domestic talent available than ever.
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Comment on ArXiv is separating from Cornell University, and is hiring a CEO, who will be paid roughly $300,000/year in ~science
raze2012 Link ParentIt's all a club. And you're not in it. But yeah. I read a pretty good article long ago on CEO culture and the issue in the US can be summed up as "there's no skin in the game". Most other cultures...Management likes to think their skills are somehow worth more money than everyone else's. They're not...they just the ones getting to vote on everybody elses's value with generally as little transparency as possible.
It's all a club. And you're not in it.
But yeah. I read a pretty good article long ago on CEO culture and the issue in the US can be summed up as "there's no skin in the game". Most other cultures have shame to be a controlling factor, and others have strong regulations that put the actual leadership in trouble if broken. The US doesn't have much of neither, so things spiral out of control quickly.
Combine that with explosive stock growths being the "real" compesnation, and CEO's can essentially fail upward, making a career out of picking the bones of companies they killed and leaving with a nice exit package to boot.
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Comment on ArXiv is separating from Cornell University, and is hiring a CEO, who will be paid roughly $300,000/year in ~science
raze2012 Link ParentThat's a conseuqnce of the marketing. They very much want people to think these are all volunteer orgs are working out of the goodness of their hearts. So then they will be able to grab more..., I sometime get frustrated when the public at large talks about non-profit salaries. It feels like the public thinks we're all volunteers.
That's a conseuqnce of the marketing. They very much want people to think these are all volunteer orgs are working out of the goodness of their hearts. So then they will be able to grab more donations from them and say they are helping to "fund progress".
In reality, it's a business delineation used to avoid paying taxes, under the promise that all profit goes back into the business instead of stakeholders.
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Comment on The billionaire ‘buccaneer’ braving the Strait of Hormuz in ~transport
raze2012 Link ParentThis has strong "many of you will die, but that is a risk I'm willing to take" vibes to it. Gambling with worker's lives and being called a "buccaneer" as if you're on the ship.This has strong "many of you will die, but that is a risk I'm willing to take" vibes to it.
While the risks for the owners are money and tankers, the sailors onboard are putting their lives on the line. Iran has threatened to set any ships attempting the passage “on fire”, hitting at least nine since the conflict began with at least three seafarers killed.
Gambling with worker's lives and being called a "buccaneer" as if you're on the ship.
Microsoft Office is the big one for a lot of people. Libre Office has been fairly competitve for a while now, but it's always about network effects and familiarity for people. Admitedly not as hard to replace as say, the Adobe suite for artists. But it's still friction to take into account .
Though, Microsoft having a huge lock in on corporate America will make this hard for years to come. Microsoft may not even truly need to worry about b2c at this point.