vektor's recent activity
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Comment on NATO commits to spending hike sought by US President Donald Trump, and to mutual defence in ~society
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Comment on NATO commits to spending hike sought by US President Donald Trump, and to mutual defence in ~society
vektor (edited )Link ParentThe US has a uniquely deemphasized artillery force. Their doctrine for getting fires on target is basically: ... by which I mean it's the air force's job. It's no wonder they can't keep up. If the...even the USA
The US has a uniquely deemphasized artillery force. Their doctrine for getting fires on target is basically:
It's always sexy to talk about a new fighter plane
... by which I mean it's the air force's job.
It's no wonder they can't keep up. If the US runs out of JDAMs, is when you gotta worry.
That said, NATO has some militaries with a lot more focus on artillery, and those guns must be fed in case of war.
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Comment on NATO commits to spending hike sought by US President Donald Trump, and to mutual defence in ~society
vektor Link ParentThat's my thinking too. Spend a little more while trump is in office (reasonable to contain Russia without too much trouble). Then wait for America to fix their shit. Then in 4 years, quietly...I don't actually expect most countries to meet it by 2035 but maybe I'm naive.
That's my thinking too. Spend a little more while trump is in office (reasonable to contain Russia without too much trouble). Then wait for America to fix their shit. Then in 4 years, quietly scale the goal down to something reasonable and pat each other on the back for finally reaching NATO spending goals.
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Comment on NATO commits to spending hike sought by US President Donald Trump, and to mutual defence in ~society
vektor Link ParentAs a ballpark figure, we can probably fight and win a war with Russia at the current ~1.5%. All it takes is replacing some of the niche enablers the US currently provides. Call it 1.6% and we're...Europe may need to stand on its own a bit more. Maybe investing 5% in the European domestic MIC could help with that.
As a ballpark figure, we can probably fight and win a war with Russia at the current ~1.5%. All it takes is replacing some of the niche enablers the US currently provides. Call it 1.6% and we're there. This would result in European NATO forces that have a technological edge and perhaps a tiny numbers disadvantage in relatively deemphasized categories like Tanks and AFVs.
Crank that number up to 2 and start using the money more efficiently and the one prospective threat becomes as much of a cake walk as a land war in Asia can ever get. Go to 3.5 or even 5, and it is ridiculously lopsided.
Perun did a video comparing European NATO to Russia a few weeks ago.
The only reasonable thing to do with 5% is to build expeditionary forces to contain threats cough china cough farther afield. Or give Germany nukes, that's also possible. You guys want German nukes?
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Comment on US bombers strike nuclear sites in Iran in ~society
vektor Link ParentMind quoting the exact verbiage and/or linking a source? What I've read is that no radiation was released, which is a different thing. A release of uranium wouldn't result in a lot of radiation.IAEA stated there's no contamination, so that begs the question...
Mind quoting the exact verbiage and/or linking a source?
What I've read is that no radiation was released, which is a different thing. A release of uranium wouldn't result in a lot of radiation.
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Comment on US bombers strike nuclear sites in Iran in ~society
vektor Link ParentNot much of a concern, as long as no chain reaction happened during the strike. Enriched uranium is barely more radioactive than depleted, which is to say it's half life is in the hundreds of...and the radiological fallout from all of that mostly enriched uranium flowing around in a nice big yellow cloud of doom.
Not much of a concern, as long as no chain reaction happened during the strike. Enriched uranium is barely more radioactive than depleted, which is to say it's half life is in the hundreds of millions of years. It's basically a stable element.
U-235 only becomes interesting once you bombard it with neutrons, but that won't happen during enrichment or in a fallout cloud. A chain reaction because you hit centrifuges with a MOP seems incredibly unlikely too - those contain UF6, a gas. Hard to shape a critical mass of that.
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Comment on Air India 787 crashes after takeoff in Ahmedabad, India in ~transport
vektor (edited )Link ParentThat inspires confidence. Not that ATC was at all likely to be a factor, but... at least in the US, the public can be as informed as they please about that particular problem.Also, we won't have ATC comms for at least some time if ever because it's apparently illegal in India to record that.
That inspires confidence.
Not that ATC was at all likely to be a factor, but... at least in the US, the public can be as informed as they please about that particular problem.
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Comment on OpenAI slams US court order to save all ChatGPT logs, including deleted chats in ~tech
vektor Link ParentI imagine a lot of businesses are doing exactly that right now: seeing if they can divest. Even if it isn't necessary compliance wise, it might still be expensive proprietary data going into the API.I imagine a lot of businesses are doing exactly that right now: seeing if they can divest. Even if it isn't necessary compliance wise, it might still be expensive proprietary data going into the API.
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Comment on Klarna’s losses widen after more consumers fail to repay loans in ~finance
vektor Link ParentI think stu2b50's point is that the fact the option is there is not a bad sign. They are not commenting about it being a bad sign if people use it. And I'm inclined to agree. That someone added...Lots of things are easy to implement and still a bad sign.
I think stu2b50's point is that the fact the option is there is not a bad sign.
They are not commenting about it being a bad sign if people use it.
And I'm inclined to agree. That someone added another option to an already bloated UI doesn't say much about the economy. It's a boring fact. If people are actually using it because they have no other choice, that's potentially very bad.
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Comment on Is all cooking "ultra-processed" food? in ~food
vektor Link ParentNone of those terms imply anything about where a food sits on the Nova scale. You can have organic UPF junk, nothing contradictory with that. In fact, that's kind of Adam's point: the garbage-ness...None of those terms imply anything about where a food sits on the Nova scale. You can have organic UPF junk, nothing contradictory with that. In fact, that's kind of Adam's point: the garbage-ness is less about ingredients and more about cultural aspects of how we eat things.
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Comment on A nonsense phrase has been occurring in scientific papers, suggesting artificial intelligence data contamination in ~tech
vektor Link ParentPretty sure I saw a reddit thread about this exact phrase, where some users figured out that the phrase is easily explained as a mistranslation from Persian. Basically, remove a single dot in the...Pretty sure I saw a reddit thread about this exact phrase, where some users figured out that the phrase is easily explained as a mistranslation from Persian. Basically, remove a single dot in the Persian phrase, and this is the proper translation of slightly misread Persian.
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Comment on I'm tired of dismissive anti-AI bias in ~tech
vektor Link ParentEven if the first is actually commercial use, it's still fine. The line isn't whether it's commercial use or not (copyright cares precious little for that), the line is whether it's a Derivative...Even if the first is actually commercial use, it's still fine. The line isn't whether it's commercial use or not (copyright cares precious little for that), the line is whether it's a Derivative Work (technical term) or not. Most AI artwork is not derivative work. Studio Ghibli's style isn't copyrighted, their individual works are. So unless you can point to a specific work and provide specific, concrete elements that were straight up copied with minor adaptation, ripping off Studio Ghibli's style isn't infringement. That'd certainly be easy to argue if you prompted the AI using copyrighted material, but not at all easy if it's just a bunch of training data.
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Comment on An engineer says he’s found a way to overcome Earth’s gravity in ~space
vektor Link ParentOh, for sure. I don't mean to imply that photon rockets are viable as they exist right now. Their TWR will be low regardless of how you do it, so even solar cells won't make them unviable as of...Oh, for sure. I don't mean to imply that photon rockets are viable as they exist right now. Their TWR will be low regardless of how you do it, so even solar cells won't make them unviable as of now. I guess what I was trying to convey is some nitpickery about "propellant" vs "reaction mass". Like, in any reasonable definition, are those photons actually propellant? They weren't on board when your rocket is fuelled up (though of course their mass was). Yet they act as reaction mass. You can also "refuel" in some unusual ways compared to regular rocket engines, even Hall effect thrusters. So can you really call them propellant? Hence "propellantless, but photons as reaction mass".
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Comment on An engineer says he’s found a way to overcome Earth’s gravity in ~space
vektor Link ParentThat quoted bit sounds really quite close to the EmDrive. "With this one weird geometry hack, we built a shape that produces a net force in a lab. We think this might be the next spacecraft...That quoted bit sounds really quite close to the EmDrive. "With this one weird geometry hack, we built a shape that produces a net force in a lab. We think this might be the next spacecraft drive." - until it cleanly reproduces in other labs, I don't buy it.
On the topic of reproducibility, anyone remember that high-temperature super conductor craze? Yeah, me neither. Not sure why I brought it up.... /s
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Comment on An engineer says he’s found a way to overcome Earth’s gravity in ~space
vektor Link ParentThe most likely "propellant-less" drive would be one that uses the planet as reaction mass. If you can build a device that uses electrostatic forces to propel away from the earth, even while...The most likely "propellant-less" drive would be one that uses the planet as reaction mass. If you can build a device that uses electrostatic forces to propel away from the earth, even while you're outside the atmosphere, that's actually groundbreaking. It's not necessarily fundamentally new science. But boy does it have engineering implications. It also seems virtually impossible for reasons of, well, engineering implications.
Alternatively, you could conceivably call photon rockets propellant-less. The reaction mass is photons, which means it's trivial to refuel in space via just solar panels. It's functionally propellant-less, but it doesn't mean it violates physics. Though, a photon rocket with enough juice to overcome gravity sounds an awful lot like a weapon of mass destruction.
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Comment on Norwegian man has filed a complaint with the Norwegian Data Protection Authority after ChatGPT falsely told him he had killed two of his sons and been jailed in ~tech
vektor Link ParentI dunno about you, but last I checked, they do have those huge disclaimers that it makes up crap. It's kinda hard to miss. It's still a useful product for other applications. And, as Turtle...I dunno about you, but last I checked, they do have those huge disclaimers that it makes up crap. It's kinda hard to miss.
It's still a useful product for other applications.
And, as Turtle pointed out, we have no way of knowing the prompt that led to this. I could easily tell chatGPT a few things about myself, such as that I killed my children, then talk about the weather for a bit, and later ask the model what it knows about me. When the model then inevitably tells me the only detail it can reliably infer, does that make it defamation? Hell, is it even defamation if I didn't directly try to cause it? After all, all I can show is that I was shown this information. I can't even credibly assert the existence, much less the identity, of any other person who I was defamed to. The statements also weren't made publicly.
There's so many unknowns in this story that would need to be plugged for it to hold water. As it is, it's pretty much "man yelling at cloud".
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Comment on Please stop externalizing your costs directly into my face in ~tech
vektor Link ParentSo, if it's so close to legitimate behavior, how are you sure it isn't legitimate?So, if it's so close to legitimate behavior, how are you sure it isn't legitimate?
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Comment on Please stop externalizing your costs directly into my face in ~tech
vektor Link ParentHell, even tangentially involved. I'd make his list of mortal enemies on multiple counts: Working on developing adjecent tech, using Copilot , and legitimizing them. My research would probably...That's an interesting and important conversation to have, but once again he's gone with two giant middle fingers to everyone involved instead.
Hell, even tangentially involved. I'd make his list of mortal enemies on multiple counts: Working on developing adjecent tech, using Copilot , and legitimizing them. My research would probably make most of the problems he's talking about a lot better (less data and energy hungry models), but apparently I'm still on the list.
I'm not sure how I feel about the body of the article, but the last two paragraphs are the only ones I have confidence in my assessment, and my assessment is poor.
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Comment on How can I prevent my work computers turning my home into an oven? in ~comp
vektor Link ParentTo be fair, you have customers willing to buy it. So whatever it is you're doing, there seems to be enough demand for it to justify what you're doing. I'm in the same general line of work, just...Oof, I knew I had a pretty ridiculous setup but that really brings home the scale here. Sure, I use a renewable electricity provider, but there's some real discomfort in this being the most viable way for me to make a living that's a whole other topic of its own...
To be fair, you have customers willing to buy it. So whatever it is you're doing, there seems to be enough demand for it to justify what you're doing. I'm in the same general line of work, just slightly different methods. Right now the AI space is a bit overrun with so many ventures and we haven't really figured out which ones deliver real value long-term, but there certainly is enough signal there in the noise, of projects that bring real benefit to real people. In the healthcare space, those benefits can be worth 10s of thousands of dollars per patient, so it's not like we're turning electricity into heat for shits and giggles. Even those of us not working in domains that so readily show their net benefit to society.
And to be fair, those KfW40 houses are quite efficient. Almost a solar array and a ventilation system away from passive houses. Buut, doing the math helped me square away how a seasonal heat store for you seems so unreasonably large, when it's doable for some low-energy homes. If you cut the yearly energy store by 10, triple the energy density because you're running your thermal battery from -1°C to 40°C, then you'd end up needing ~12 cubic meters of water to heat a KfW40 home through one winter, and in the summer that's your heatsink for AC. 12 cubic meters is still a lot, but it starts to get reasonable.
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Comment on How can I prevent my work computers turning my home into an oven? in ~comp
vektor Link Parent5 Euros or so per day just for the water to cool the setup, and that's when we're willing to discharge at inletTemp+40°C. That's not nothing. I'm not liking those rates, but yes, it is kind of...5 Euros or so per day just for the water to cool the setup, and that's when we're willing to discharge at inletTemp+40°C. That's not nothing. I'm not liking those rates, but yes, it is kind of remarkable how cheap that actually is, considering the wasteful use of resources.
To clarify, the only reason to wait for the US to fix their shit is so the existing alliance structure stays intact, not so we can continue relying on it. I'd expect us to follow suit on defense spending until we can comfortably meet our security needs - and then expect that the US dropped the ridiculous 5% demand, because all reasonable needs will be met beforehand.
Whether the US drops the demand because they (A) are a democracy again, (B) someone else talked to trump's brain-in-a-jar last, or (C) some other despot runs the place doesn't matter. I don't think the 5% goals will ever be met. They're too ridiculous to implement at the whims of a country's unstable leader who wouldn't even help the alliance out anyway.
If the US does not fix their shit, no big deal: in that case we've ramped up defense spending to a point where we don't rely on the US.
If we add 0.2% per year, European NATO will run a 2.3% budget in ~4 years. Given that we could win today, perhaps with a bit more pain than desirable, that should very much suffice.