chuck it on the ever growing pile of things that will absolutely lead to mass displacement of people (and also the pile of things that will almost certainly happen sooner rather than later, given...
chuck it on the ever growing pile of things that will absolutely lead to mass displacement of people (and also the pile of things that will almost certainly happen sooner rather than later, given the apocalyptic state of climate science)
If the loss of ice becomes so severe that the glacier collapses — something computer models predict could happen in 50 to 100 years — sea levels would rise by two feet. That’s enough to inundate coastal cities across the globe.
“It’s completely plausible,” Scambos said, adding that "Thwaites has a really perfect storm going for it” — a reference to the fact that parts of the glacier lie below sea level and are thus especially vulnerable to melting by seawater.
Two feet of water rolling up on the entire global coast in the space of a couple days might finally be enough to kick us out of denial and inaction, so bring it on. Two feet of water is an epic...
Two feet of water rolling up on the entire global coast in the space of a couple days might finally be enough to kick us out of denial and inaction, so bring it on. Two feet of water is an epic flood, but it's hardly the end of the world as we know it, and it is impossible to explain away as anything other than climate. Sixty feet of water is where we're heading here, conservatively, unless we take some pretty drastic action.
This is actually weirdly reassuring to me. I mean it's absolutely terrible of course for everyone on the coasts and untold forced migration, etc but my stupid mind was imaging more of a Kevin...
This is actually weirdly reassuring to me. I mean it's absolutely terrible of course for everyone on the coasts and untold forced migration, etc but my stupid mind was imaging more of a Kevin -Costner-Water -World situation.
It's also worth noting that predictions around climate change are usually super optimistic, so I wouldn't be surprised if it collapsed under the predicted 50 years.
It's also worth noting that predictions around climate change are usually super optimistic, so I wouldn't be surprised if it collapsed under the predicted 50 years.
Just based on a glance at geologic time graphs of temperatures, I wonder that we can do anything at this stage to alter climate significantly. In my admittedly inexperienced view, it seems that...
Just based on a glance at geologic time graphs of temperatures, I wonder that we can do anything at this stage to alter climate significantly. In my admittedly inexperienced view, it seems that preparation is the attitude we should have. Is anyone here, for example, planning to move to higher ground, or to locations further from the equator? Sure, we can imagine an apocalypse that no one can avoid, but that doesn't seem to be a useful attitude.
I say this remembering how folks in New Orleans knew they were about to be hit by Hurricane Katrina and many were bused to other cities, in many cases after the fact and after the destruction. Many saw no use in leaving and partied like it was 1999. Is this seen by people in your area as a 'sky is falling' over-reaction, or are people actually taking steps to prepare?
My own concern at the moment is elevation/flooding. How far are you above sea level and was this a consideration in your location? Good point about the fresh water.
My own concern at the moment is elevation/flooding. How far are you above sea level and was this a consideration in your location? Good point about the fresh water.
I live in Florida, on a river near the coast. Sea level rise, worsening hurricanes, higher storm surge, and increased prevalence of tropical diseases are all concerns, so when my partner and I...
I live in Florida, on a river near the coast. Sea level rise, worsening hurricanes, higher storm surge, and increased prevalence of tropical diseases are all concerns, so when my partner and I talk about where to settle down we don't include Florida on the list, at least not long term.
The problem is that (as I'm sure most folks know), humans are bad at dealing with long term risk. I'm most concerned for people who can't easily move even if they want to. Taking your example, sure, some people who stay during hurricanes are careless (or locals that expect every hurricane to be as boring as the others they've weathered easily). But other people didn't have cars, or couldn't take time off work, or didn't have money for travel expenses, or were disabled or sick. Those are the people who don't have the luxury of thinking about sea level rise in a decade. And they're the ones who will be least able to move when it becomes necessary.
I used to check those sea-level-rise maps that NOAA/others have since they were first released a long time ago, just for fun (back when Google Earth + custom filters came out eons ago). I would...
I used to check those sea-level-rise maps that NOAA/others have since they were first released a long time ago, just for fun (back when Google Earth + custom filters came out eons ago). I would try to figure out how high the water had to rise to flood my neighborhood or a friend's neighborhoods or where would suddenly become an island or where would become beachfront property... Now it's not so much for fun but for planning, as you said. It doesn't hurt to plan.
"How will a city have to shift it's infrastructure/housing/businesses to accommodate being half underwater?" - "Will this neighborhood be underwater before or after a mortgage is fully paid out?" - "How will farming and dispersal of goods be affected in this area?" - "Where might a state decide to shift infrastructure or re-zone or make a new Port when it becomes necessary?" etc.
We might not have time to fix this fully or even partially, but at least we have time to plan on how to cope down the road (river?).
I've been eyeing B.C./Yukon for the future. It wouldn't solve the wildfire problem Western NA is suffering and will continue to suffer, but it will avoid the East Coast superstorms and SW NA...
I've been eyeing B.C./Yukon for the future. It wouldn't solve the wildfire problem Western NA is suffering and will continue to suffer, but it will avoid the East Coast superstorms and SW NA desertification that will happen.
Part of the problem is that no area on the globe will be unaffected in some way, shape, or form. But whether I commit to W/NW Canada or not, I very easily see myself fucking off into the mountains somewhere in the world as shit really starts to hit the fan from mid-century onward.
Yes, no one will be unaffected. Even worse, I don't think we have enough information to model a timeline for climate change, it could take years or decades with catastrophic tipping points or...
Yes, no one will be unaffected. Even worse, I don't think we have enough information to model a timeline for climate change, it could take years or decades with catastrophic tipping points or centuries of painful disruption and readjustment. That's the problem with long range planning. We're not equipped to think that way.
Still I can't help thinking about those caught in the dust bowl in the last century and how those lucky enough to avoid it altered the fortunes of their families for generations to come.
chuck it on the ever growing pile of things that will absolutely lead to mass displacement of people (and also the pile of things that will almost certainly happen sooner rather than later, given the apocalyptic state of climate science)
Two feet of water rolling up on the entire global coast in the space of a couple days might finally be enough to kick us out of denial and inaction, so bring it on. Two feet of water is an epic flood, but it's hardly the end of the world as we know it, and it is impossible to explain away as anything other than climate. Sixty feet of water is where we're heading here, conservatively, unless we take some pretty drastic action.
This is actually weirdly reassuring to me. I mean it's absolutely terrible of course for everyone on the coasts and untold forced migration, etc but my stupid mind was imaging more of a Kevin -Costner-Water -World situation.
Yeah, definitely bad news bears
It's also worth noting that predictions around climate change are usually super optimistic, so I wouldn't be surprised if it collapsed under the predicted 50 years.
Just based on a glance at geologic time graphs of temperatures, I wonder that we can do anything at this stage to alter climate significantly. In my admittedly inexperienced view, it seems that preparation is the attitude we should have. Is anyone here, for example, planning to move to higher ground, or to locations further from the equator? Sure, we can imagine an apocalypse that no one can avoid, but that doesn't seem to be a useful attitude.
I say this remembering how folks in New Orleans knew they were about to be hit by Hurricane Katrina and many were bused to other cities, in many cases after the fact and after the destruction. Many saw no use in leaving and partied like it was 1999. Is this seen by people in your area as a 'sky is falling' over-reaction, or are people actually taking steps to prepare?
My own concern at the moment is elevation/flooding. How far are you above sea level and was this a consideration in your location? Good point about the fresh water.
I live in Florida, on a river near the coast. Sea level rise, worsening hurricanes, higher storm surge, and increased prevalence of tropical diseases are all concerns, so when my partner and I talk about where to settle down we don't include Florida on the list, at least not long term.
The problem is that (as I'm sure most folks know), humans are bad at dealing with long term risk. I'm most concerned for people who can't easily move even if they want to. Taking your example, sure, some people who stay during hurricanes are careless (or locals that expect every hurricane to be as boring as the others they've weathered easily). But other people didn't have cars, or couldn't take time off work, or didn't have money for travel expenses, or were disabled or sick. Those are the people who don't have the luxury of thinking about sea level rise in a decade. And they're the ones who will be least able to move when it becomes necessary.
I used to check those sea-level-rise maps that NOAA/others have since they were first released a long time ago, just for fun (back when Google Earth + custom filters came out eons ago). I would try to figure out how high the water had to rise to flood my neighborhood or a friend's neighborhoods or where would suddenly become an island or where would become beachfront property... Now it's not so much for fun but for planning, as you said. It doesn't hurt to plan.
"How will a city have to shift it's infrastructure/housing/businesses to accommodate being half underwater?" - "Will this neighborhood be underwater before or after a mortgage is fully paid out?" - "How will farming and dispersal of goods be affected in this area?" - "Where might a state decide to shift infrastructure or re-zone or make a new Port when it becomes necessary?" etc.
We might not have time to fix this fully or even partially, but at least we have time to plan on how to cope down the road (river?).
I've been eyeing B.C./Yukon for the future. It wouldn't solve the wildfire problem Western NA is suffering and will continue to suffer, but it will avoid the East Coast superstorms and SW NA desertification that will happen.
Part of the problem is that no area on the globe will be unaffected in some way, shape, or form. But whether I commit to W/NW Canada or not, I very easily see myself fucking off into the mountains somewhere in the world as shit really starts to hit the fan from mid-century onward.
Yes, no one will be unaffected. Even worse, I don't think we have enough information to model a timeline for climate change, it could take years or decades with catastrophic tipping points or centuries of painful disruption and readjustment. That's the problem with long range planning. We're not equipped to think that way.
Still I can't help thinking about those caught in the dust bowl in the last century and how those lucky enough to avoid it altered the fortunes of their families for generations to come.
Tiki li li!