19
votes
A majority of Greenland's ice sheet is experiencing above-freezing temperatures this week, which could cause record melting and raise global sea levels
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- Title
- Record Heat Threatens Greenland's Ice Sheet
- Authors
- Maxine Speier
- Published
- Jul 30 2019
- Word count
- 456 words
it's interesting, in a morbid way, that we're seeing such radical changes already to the environment that modeling suggests shouldn't really be happening yet come about because of a perfect storm of conditions. it kinda underscores the fact that while we have an idea of what might happen in the future as climate change intensifies, our modelling is probably understating its progression and we're really playing with fire by not taking action now. this and the weather patterns which are causing it aren't the only indicators which suggest that things are progressing and happening faster than the modeling, either: there are the massive fires, the abnormal weather patterns in places like alaska, and the collapse of sea ice in the north even by the standards of recent sea ice collapses which are pointing in a pretty perilous direction right now.
Yeah. I think in 10-15 years we're going to be at the point where we're seeing the deleterious and worst case predictions for half a century from now come true. It is an understatement to call this an emergency.
If there's one thing we should learn from the history of the climate crisis, it's that at every single step of the way, we've overestimated how safe we are and underestimated how urgent the problem is.
The IPCC "12 years" goal gets talked about a lot...but in their actual statement they don't actually mention 12 years. They mention 2030, and the report came out in 2018, so the media short-handed it to 12 years.
The clock is ticking. We're already at 11 years.
That 2030 goal is just a checkpoint along the way to zero emissions by 2050:
We have 11 years to cut global carbon emissions in half. That's not a "we've got 11 years, so let's put it off like a college term paper then work real hard for a year or two to get it done" type of goal.
And if we succeed in that goal (which I don't think anyone realistically thinks is actually likely)...we limit warming to 1.5C.
Warming of 1.5C will still cause catastrophic changes in human society, including mass movement of climate refugees destabilizing governments across the globe.
of course, that 11 years is contingent on there being actionable policies in place in the first place, which requires democratic elections and agenda-setting. as a matter of practice, the growing consensus is that the flashpoint for climate policy will be late 2020: if things are ready to be implemented by then we have a shot at 1.5C; if not, there is no hope in hell.