Archive link. I was meaning to post this on the day but I've been on holiday. TL;DR Bernardo Arévalo, an anti-corruption, social-democratic candidate who, three months ago, nobody thought could...
I was meaning to post this on the day but I've been on holiday.
TL;DR Bernardo Arévalo, an anti-corruption, social-democratic candidate who, three months ago, nobody thought could win, won a presidential run-off. An authoritarian left-wing populist - Sandra Torres - lost (though I would argue they were the 'blue' rather than 'pink' candidate in this election, as Guatemala's culturally conservative establishment swung behind them). This is a momentous result, but there are still political tensions on top of the daunting in-tray.
Run-up to the election
In the run-up to the first round of the election several candidates were disqualified by the electoral court, including the frontrunning conservative candidate, Carlos Pineda; a prominent journalist was also jailed for six years after alleging that the outgoing president is corrupt. The two candidates making it to the run-off achieved a total of 36% of the vote. Roiling the country's politics further, the president-elect's party was suspended by the electoral court: a move which the US has described as a ‘threat to Guatemala’s electoral democracy’. While the move was reversed by Guatemala's supreme court, it nonetheless served as political intimidation.
In the first round, Torres and Arévalo won a combined 36% of the vote, reflecting widespread apathy. Turnout in the second round was just 41%.
The expected front-runner in the second round was Sandra Torres, a former first lady and three-time presidential candidate associated with social programmes initiated by their late husband, and has a groundswell of support among the rural poor. In Guatemala’s fractured political landscape, Torres would ordinarily be perceived as ‘leftist’. Yet in this election, they were the conservative. (Blue is the new pink.) A self-declared ‘social Christian’, Torres opposes abortion and same-sex marriage - her campaigners lampooning Arévalo as a crypto-communist in the pockets of a gay lobby who prey on children - and wishes to emulate El Salvador’s gangs crackdown. Resultantly, Guatemala’s conservative establishment swung behind her.
An unhappy establishment has more tricks up its sleeve
Arévalo’s opponents are desperate to stop him, to the extent of attempting to suspend his political party before the presidential run-off election – a move which was described by a fellow at the US Council on Foreign Relations as “Guatemala… becoming the new Nicaragua”. Given that deputies from Arévalo's Semilla party only have 23 out of 160 seats in the Congress, it's unclear whether Arévalo has a path to a functioning governing majority.
But that isn't his biggest problem. Torres has been alleging electoral fraud, and judicial challenges to the election results are likely, even if at this point there isn't much likelihood of the election being overturned. Prosecutors are trying to prevent Semilla deputies in Congress from holding key positions such as the speakership. If successful, this would stymie Arévalo's legislative agenda.
It won't be easy for the new government to address the underlying problems in Guatemalan society. Arévalo's key pledges are to increase the tax take by reducing tax evasion, digitising public services, and recreating anti-corruption bodies - but these won't have immediate positive effects, even if he can implement these.
The greatest immediate risk to Guatemala may be political apathy, and a belief that there aren’t democratic solutions to the country’s problems. Guatemalans already have little faith in political solutions: polling reveals that only 23% of Guatemalans cite security as a top political priority, 35% cost of living, and 17% corruption, despite all three being key issues for the country.
Archive link.
I was meaning to post this on the day but I've been on holiday.
TL;DR Bernardo Arévalo, an anti-corruption, social-democratic candidate who, three months ago, nobody thought could win, won a presidential run-off. An authoritarian left-wing populist - Sandra Torres - lost (though I would argue they were the 'blue' rather than 'pink' candidate in this election, as Guatemala's culturally conservative establishment swung behind them). This is a momentous result, but there are still political tensions on top of the daunting in-tray.
Run-up to the election
In the run-up to the first round of the election several candidates were disqualified by the electoral court, including the frontrunning conservative candidate, Carlos Pineda; a prominent journalist was also jailed for six years after alleging that the outgoing president is corrupt. The two candidates making it to the run-off achieved a total of 36% of the vote. Roiling the country's politics further, the president-elect's party was suspended by the electoral court: a move which the US has described as a ‘threat to Guatemala’s electoral democracy’. While the move was reversed by Guatemala's supreme court, it nonetheless served as political intimidation.
In the first round, Torres and Arévalo won a combined 36% of the vote, reflecting widespread apathy. Turnout in the second round was just 41%.
What's the context?
In 2019 Guatemala’s UN-backed anti-corruption commission shut down. Since then repression and corruption in the country has increased, with an estimated 30 anti-corruption judges and prosecutors having fled the country for fear of arrest. The worsening civic environment is a burden: 83% of Guatemalans think their country has declined over the past three years.
The second round
The expected front-runner in the second round was Sandra Torres, a former first lady and three-time presidential candidate associated with social programmes initiated by their late husband, and has a groundswell of support among the rural poor. In Guatemala’s fractured political landscape, Torres would ordinarily be perceived as ‘leftist’. Yet in this election, they were the conservative. (Blue is the new pink.) A self-declared ‘social Christian’, Torres opposes abortion and same-sex marriage - her campaigners lampooning Arévalo as a crypto-communist in the pockets of a gay lobby who prey on children - and wishes to emulate El Salvador’s gangs crackdown. Resultantly, Guatemala’s conservative establishment swung behind her.
Meanwhile, Arévalo is a social democrat who campaigned on an anti-corruption platform, including restoring the anti-corruption commission. It’s this pledge which disgruntles Guatemala’s establishment: the UN-backed commission was highly effective. In 2015, its investigations resulted in the arrest of the then-president Otto Pérez Molina and their deputy.
An unhappy establishment has more tricks up its sleeve
Arévalo’s opponents are desperate to stop him, to the extent of attempting to suspend his political party before the presidential run-off election – a move which was described by a fellow at the US Council on Foreign Relations as “Guatemala… becoming the new Nicaragua”. Given that deputies from Arévalo's Semilla party only have 23 out of 160 seats in the Congress, it's unclear whether Arévalo has a path to a functioning governing majority.
But that isn't his biggest problem. Torres has been alleging electoral fraud, and judicial challenges to the election results are likely, even if at this point there isn't much likelihood of the election being overturned. Prosecutors are trying to prevent Semilla deputies in Congress from holding key positions such as the speakership. If successful, this would stymie Arévalo's legislative agenda.
What's next?
Guatemala is a country which posts strong economic growth, yet is highly unequal and has the highest level of food insecurity in Latin America. In both 2021 and 2022, 230,000 Guatemalans were found illegally crossing the US border – with an uptick in violent crime and inequality being motivations.
It won't be easy for the new government to address the underlying problems in Guatemalan society. Arévalo's key pledges are to increase the tax take by reducing tax evasion, digitising public services, and recreating anti-corruption bodies - but these won't have immediate positive effects, even if he can implement these.
The greatest immediate risk to Guatemala may be political apathy, and a belief that there aren’t democratic solutions to the country’s problems. Guatemalans already have little faith in political solutions: polling reveals that only 23% of Guatemalans cite security as a top political priority, 35% cost of living, and 17% corruption, despite all three being key issues for the country.
(Spelling/punctuation/grammar edit)