SantalBlush's recent activity

  1. Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of August 2 in ~news

    SantalBlush
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    5 Miami Beach police officers face criminal charges in hotel beating of Black men This video shows more of the incident.

    5 Miami Beach police officers face criminal charges in hotel beating of Black men

    Five Miami Beach police officers are now facing criminal charges after they were seen on body camera and security video kicking a handcuffed Black man in a hotel lobby and tackling and pummeling a Black witness who was recording the incident on his cellphone.

    This video shows more of the incident.

    3 votes
  2. Comment on Derek Chauvin is found guilty of murdering George Floyd in ~news

    SantalBlush
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    And again, this is willfully ignoring the primary danger in a Chauvin acquittal scenario; namely, it reinforces a dangerous bias in not only our justice system, but also in our policing system. To...

    And again, this is willfully ignoring the primary danger in a Chauvin acquittal scenario; namely, it reinforces a dangerous bias in not only our justice system, but also in our policing system. To act like the protests are the biggest threat here is a privileged take. Invoking notions like accelerationism takes it down a quasi-intellectual trail that is totally unnecessary and misses the very simple point.

    7 votes
  3. Comment on Derek Chauvin is found guilty of murdering George Floyd in ~news

    SantalBlush
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    I don't think widespread protests are the problem, but rather what these protests are meant to address--injustices in our police system. If they hadn't convicted him, it would be one more...

    I don't think widespread protests are the problem, but rather what these protests are meant to address--injustices in our police system. If they hadn't convicted him, it would be one more injustice to add to the pile, and that is what would have made it the darker timeline.

    9 votes
  4. Comment on Discord bans the r/WallStreetBets server in ~tech

    SantalBlush
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    Today the headlines are about the little guy sticking it to hedge funds, but by the time this is all over we'll probably see stories about grandmas losing their retirement savings from trading...

    Today the headlines are about the little guy sticking it to hedge funds, but by the time this is all over we'll probably see stories about grandmas losing their retirement savings from trading options. With all of the recklessness going on right now, I can see this ending in another regulatory crackdown on retail trading.

    4 votes
  5. Comment on <deleted topic> in ~enviro

    SantalBlush
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    The worst thing that can happen from being too pessimistic is that people will ignore the problem, because it's a huge source of anxiety, they can't individually change the course of the planet,...

    What's the worst thing that will happen from being too pessimistic about the climate/ecological/diversity disasters and society taking too strong measures curbing the destruction of our planet? Unused economic opportunities? Slightly lower quality of life?

    The worst thing that can happen from being too pessimistic is that people will ignore the problem, because it's a huge source of anxiety, they can't individually change the course of the planet, and if we're probably doomed anyway, then what is the point of trying? Better to spread a message of both urgency and optimism, along the lines of "Our future can be good--in some ways even better than it is today--but we must make drastic changes to our infrastructure and way of life." That is how you get buy-in. I see a lot of comments on the internet about how it's "too late", and those are counterproductive.

    12 votes
  6. Comment on GameStop's stock has surged 1,500% in nine months after activist investors take board seats along with a massive short squeeze in ~finance

    SantalBlush
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    I've been following WallStreetBets for fun since last March, and it's probably a good idea to keep in mind that they've been trying to pump a lot of stocks with mixed results up to this point....

    I've been following WallStreetBets for fun since last March, and it's probably a good idea to keep in mind that they've been trying to pump a lot of stocks with mixed results up to this point. Without the benefit of hindsight, GME looked like a similar moonshot to the ones they've been attempting for a while, in my opinion.

    10 votes
  7. Comment on No one knows how much the government can borrow in ~finance

    SantalBlush
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    The point is that we should be applying the same level of scrutiny to these sorts of blog posts that we apply to, say, publications or other work, and I don't think that has been done here. And...

    The point is that we should be applying the same level of scrutiny to these sorts of blog posts that we apply to, say, publications or other work, and I don't think that has been done here.

    And I've seen this play out quite a few times: make a claim with little or weak evidence, then require someone else to put in more work and provide more sources if they wish to refute it. Finding the sort of paper I'm taking about is as simple as opening Google Scholar and searching "government borrowing limits". If someone tries that, they could immediately find a paper like "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for Empirical Testing," which is published in a high-quality journal. One version of the abstract I see:

    This paper seeks to distinguish empirically between two views on the limitations of government borrowing. According to one view, nothing precludes the government from running a permanent budget deficit, paying interest due on the growing debt load simply by issuing new debt, An alternative perspective holds that creditors would be unwilling to purchase government debt unless the government made a credible commitment to balance its budget in present value terms. We show that distinguishing between these possibilities is mathematically equivalent to testing whether a continuing currency inflation might be fueled by speculation alone or is instead driven solely by economic fundamentals. Empirical tests which have been developed for this economic question lead us to conclude that postwar U.S. deficits are largely consistent with the proposition that the government budget must be balanced in present-value terms.

    Looks pretty relevant to the blog post. You can look at the papers that cite this one and proceed from there. The author should have included this sort of work in the post. This will be my last comment. If you reply, I will read it.

    2 votes
  8. Comment on No one knows how much the government can borrow in ~finance

    SantalBlush
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    They are both effects of the pandemic. The point is that in spite of these massive stimulus projects, inflation can be tempered by a decrease in money velocity, among other things.

    They are both effects of the pandemic. The point is that in spite of these massive stimulus projects, inflation can be tempered by a decrease in money velocity, among other things.

    1 vote
  9. Comment on No one knows how much the government can borrow in ~finance

    SantalBlush
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    Right, we can see M2 velocity in sharp decline, particularly over the past year during US fiscal and monetary expansions.

    Right, we can see M2 velocity in sharp decline, particularly over the past year during US fiscal and monetary expansions.

    1 vote
  10. Comment on No one knows how much the government can borrow in ~finance

    SantalBlush
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    I see references to work on hyperinflation, but I don't see the author referencing work on government borrowing, the main topic of the article. There is a large body of work on the limitations and...

    I see references to work on hyperinflation, but I don't see the author referencing work on government borrowing, the main topic of the article. There is a large body of work on the limitations and problems surrounding government borrowing, so it's a bad sign that the author didn't address any of it, and went so far as to (falsely) say it doesn't exist.

    So let’s talk a little about government borrowing constraints, and why we don’t know what they are, and why macroeconomists have been remiss in avoiding the topic.

    They haven't avoided the topic. Let's look at some other claims.

    Most macroeconomic models simply assume a government borrowing constraint. They assume that in the very long run, government debt as a percent of GDP trends toward zero (or perhaps some constant value).

    In the first part of this statement, the author links to what appears to be an undergrad econ textbook as evidence that "most" models assume a borrowing constraint. That's not evidence. The second link points to a single model in another blog by someone from the St. Louis Fed, which is better, but still not great. There are in fact common time series models that examine whether debt is constrained (stationary), and it is a well known issue in the actual literature.

    The general description of the banking system is decent, but much of the article is just complaining about macroeconomists, followed by some good-old-fashioned poisoning the well. Okay, suppose we shouldn't trust what macroeconomists say--but why, then, should we trust this person, Noah Smith? A smart person on the internet would scoff and say, "It's not about the person, it's about the merits of the argument." That sounds great, but the author didn't really address the merits of macroecon arguments in the first place, and instead opted to disparage the entire field with over-generalizations or straight up fabrications. Moreover, the author offers considerably less evidence for arguments in this article than we can find in a paper in any decent journal. So again, why do I believe the assertions in this article?

    This follows a common formula that I see on blogs, and it goes something like this:

    1. Point out some flaws in the existing literature of whatever sphere of knowledge I want to discuss (whether those flaws are real or made up doesn't matter).

    2. Use these flaws to suggest that the entire field is problematic.

    3. Conclude that since the entire field is problematic, then my opinions are now on equal footing with the opinions of experts.

    That's not how it works. I could make a decent list of problems I have with macroecon, but that doesn't mean the assertions here are worth their salt, especially with such weak evidence. I mean, the author doesn't even mention the role of money velocity when discussing inflation, which is pretty darn important.

    2 votes
  11. Comment on No one knows how much the government can borrow in ~finance

    SantalBlush
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    The very first paragraph in this article, is false. Which goes to show that you can fabricate almost anything about the field of economics on the internet, and people will not only believe it, but...

    The very first paragraph in this article,

    One of the most important questions in macroeconomics is one that economists have curiously chosen not to study. That question is: “How much can the government safely borrow?”

    is false. Which goes to show that you can fabricate almost anything about the field of economics on the internet, and people will not only believe it, but will spread it to unwitting readers.

    2 votes
  12. Comment on GameStop's stock has surged 1,500% in nine months after activist investors take board seats along with a massive short squeeze in ~finance

    SantalBlush
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    Don't worry, once this massive bull run is over, traders will start dropping like flies. Even if the market just goes sideways instead of down, they stand to lose big on their option plays,...

    Don't worry, once this massive bull run is over, traders will start dropping like flies. Even if the market just goes sideways instead of down, they stand to lose big on their option plays, whereas a regular investor will be fine. That FOMO is a powerful thing, though, especially the way these markets have behaved the past 10 months.

    6 votes
  13. Comment on Daily thread - United States 2021 transition of power - January 20 in ~news

    SantalBlush
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    Midterms are right around the corner. Just saying....

    Midterms are right around the corner. Just saying....

    1 vote
  14. Comment on What Parler saw during the attack on the Capitol: Curated videos, arranged on a timeline in ~news

    SantalBlush
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    I don't know, I still use that hand sign all the time. Lunatics can do what they want in their internet circles; my life isn't going to revolve around them.

    I don't know, I still use that hand sign all the time. Lunatics can do what they want in their internet circles; my life isn't going to revolve around them.

    9 votes
  15. Comment on Daily thread - United States 2021 transition of power - January 17 in ~news

    SantalBlush
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    Maybe it won't hurt to consider that Jan. 6 was an even worse day for right wingers. Trump lost the election. Biden was certified that day, despite their violent attempt to stop it from happening,...

    Maybe it won't hurt to consider that Jan. 6 was an even worse day for right wingers. Trump lost the election. Biden was certified that day, despite their violent attempt to stop it from happening, and the Senate was flipped by Georgia of all states.

    It may seem like they're the ones still in power, but in the realest sense, they are not.

    6 votes
  16. Comment on Daily thread - United States 2021 transition of power - January 15 in ~news

    SantalBlush
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    This has been bothering me too, how soon after the insurrection the conversation changed to suppression of free speech and government overreach. These things are not new; they are just new for...

    This has been bothering me too, how soon after the insurrection the conversation changed to suppression of free speech and government overreach. These things are not new; they are just new for people on the right, and now we're supposed to panic about it.

    7 votes
  17. Comment on Daily thread - United States 2021 transition of power - January 14 in ~news

    SantalBlush
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    Then we have two general cases: Police are openly racist, or bad at concealing their racism. Then their continued presence suggests that management is racist or sympathetic to racism. Police...

    Then we have two general cases:

    1. Police are openly racist, or bad at concealing their racism. Then their continued presence suggests that management is racist or sympathetic to racism.

    2. Police successfully conceal their racism. Some of them will inevitably be promoted to higher positions, resulting in racist management.

    2 votes
  18. Comment on Daily thread - United States 2021 transition of power - January 11 in ~news

    SantalBlush
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    Good stuff. To expand on this, I encourage everyone to remind others when Rep. Matt Gaetz and other Republicans stormed the private impeachment hearing to appease Trump: This might be the clearest...

    Good stuff. To expand on this, I encourage everyone to remind others when Rep. Matt Gaetz and other Republicans stormed the private impeachment hearing to appease Trump:

    The storm-the-room stunt came two days after Trump said that he thought Republicans “have to get tougher and fight.” Many of the Republicans engaged in the protest were at a White House on Tuesday meeting with Trump, and a person familiar with the matter told CNN that Trump had advance knowledge of the plans to enter the space.

    This might be the clearest line connecting Republicans' prior disregard for the law to last week's insurrection.

    16 votes