SantalBlush's recent activity

  1. Comment on The coronavirus pandemic will forever alter the world order in ~health.coronavirus

    SantalBlush
    Link Parent
    He's been an important and terrible figure in US foreign policy for a long time.

    He's been an important and terrible figure in US foreign policy for a long time.

    7 votes
  2. Comment on Simple DIY masks could help flatten the curve. We should all wear them in public in ~health.coronavirus

    SantalBlush
    Link Parent
    I don't think this is true at all in many cases. Moreover, even in those cases where a layman can accurately summarize a paper's findings, they often aren't able to verify whether or not the...

    Lots of people are able to read research papers and summarize them

    I don't think this is true at all in many cases. Moreover, even in those cases where a layman can accurately summarize a paper's findings, they often aren't able to verify whether or not the methodology was appropriate or that the correct inferences were drawn from the results. These things are important, as research papers vary in quality quite a bit.

    This isn't to say that laymen shouldn't read and try to understand research papers; they absolutely should do this. But when it comes to getting reliable information--especially of such importance as this--we should look to professionals in the field.

    7 votes
  3. Comment on The new U.S. stimulus bill is massive, but it might not be enough in ~finance

    SantalBlush
    Link Parent
    It seems that your entire assertion here is that we will learn more as time goes on, and we don't know yet how the stock market will respond to future events. I'm honestly not sure why you're...

    It seems that your entire assertion here is that we will learn more as time goes on, and we don't know yet how the stock market will respond to future events. I'm honestly not sure why you're writing it, or what you're responding to. Perhaps I missed something.

  4. Comment on The new U.S. stimulus bill is massive, but it might not be enough in ~finance

    SantalBlush
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    OP is not from the future. They are referring to widely suspected predictions only, not the confirmation of those predictions, which none of us presently have access to. How likely? What is this...

    OP is not from the future. They are referring to widely suspected predictions only, not the confirmation of those predictions, which none of us presently have access to.

    It seems likely that there will be plenty of market-moving bad news.

    How likely? What is this bad news, and how strongly will it turn the market downward? What is the time frame in which this is likely to happen?

  5. Comment on The new U.S. stimulus bill is massive, but it might not be enough in ~finance

    SantalBlush
    Link Parent
    I imagine that this information is already reflected in the price, since it seems to be common knowledge. I could still see the market declining further for plenty of other reasons though.

    I anticipate it to crash further once reality sets in that this isn't a couple weeks ordeal we are going through.

    I imagine that this information is already reflected in the price, since it seems to be common knowledge. I could still see the market declining further for plenty of other reasons though.

    1 vote
  6. Comment on Americans' opinions on the coronavirus are changing fast in ~health.coronavirus

    SantalBlush
    Link Parent
    If the fatality rates are higher in cities than in rural areas, he can use this to pretend that city "liberals" mishandled the pandemic. I think his approval ratings may rise when this is all over.

    If the fatality rates are higher in cities than in rural areas, he can use this to pretend that city "liberals" mishandled the pandemic. I think his approval ratings may rise when this is all over.

    6 votes
  7. Comment on Yes, young people are falling seriously ill from Covid-19 in ~health.coronavirus

    SantalBlush
    Link
    That bar chart is misleading when taken out of context. It's showing the raw number of hospitalizations per age group, when it needs to show the number of hospitalizations as a proportion of...

    That bar chart is misleading when taken out of context. It's showing the raw number of hospitalizations per age group, when it needs to show the number of hospitalizations as a proportion of people in each age group who tested positive for the virus for the purposes of this article.

    Also, see the footnotes:
    -Hospitalization status missing or unknown for 1,514 cases (more than 70% of the roughly 2,500 cases mentioned here)
    -ICU status missing or unknown for 2,253 cases
    -Illness outcome or death missing or unknown for 2,001 cases

    The table lower in the article appears to be better. It shows that 14.3-20.8 percent of people ages 20 to 44 who tested positive for the virus are hospitalized, compared to 21.2-28.3 percent of people ages 45 to 54. ICU admission has a much stronger difference, with 2.0-4.2 percent of people ages 20-44 being admitted to the ICU while 5.4-10.4 percent of people ages 45-54 were admitted to the ICU. These disparities appear to grow more with age. Case fatalities for ages 20 to 44 are 0.1-0.2 percent.

    3 votes
  8. Comment on US virus plan anticipates 18-month pandemic and widespread shortages: The 100-page federal plan laid out a grim prognosis and outlined a response that would activate agencies across the government in ~health.coronavirus

    SantalBlush
    Link
    Not food shortages. The article describes shortages of medical supplies and related necessities. I'm not a fan of the article's title.

    Not food shortages. The article describes shortages of medical supplies and related necessities.

    “Shortages of products may occur, impacting health care, emergency services, and other elements of critical infrastructure,” the plan warned. “This includes potentially critical shortages of diagnostics, medical supplies (including PPE and pharmaceuticals), and staffing in some locations.” P.P.E. refers to personal protective equipment.

    I'm not a fan of the article's title.

    9 votes
  9. Comment on White House pushes for quick, direct payments to Americans in response to coronavirus in ~finance

    SantalBlush
    Link
    Placing cash in the hands of Americans is a good start. If they want to mitigate the damage from this, they'll keep a UBI going for as long as it takes (longer would be nice) to incentivize people...

    Placing cash in the hands of Americans is a good start. If they want to mitigate the damage from this, they'll keep a UBI going for as long as it takes (longer would be nice) to incentivize people to stay home and cover their basic needs. I wonder if a good long-term plan would be something like:

    -After this initial quarantine period, encourage low risk individuals to return to work.
    -Press businesses to implement social distancing protocols in the workplace until further notice.
    -Expand Social Security to cover the high risk population. Not just the elderly, but people with other comorbidities. Encourage them to remain isolated while business operations begin returning to normal. Implement delivery services to these households.
    -Ramp up testing.
    -Continue to advise against large gatherings.

    The fundamental problem here is that the worldwide unemployment rate has shot up overnight, and fiscal maneuvering will only do so much. Until people get back to work, liquidity will continue to dry up. The bug is already everywhere, and there seems to be (from what I've read) a substantial lag between infection and showing symptoms, so we won't see peak infection rates for a while in spite of being locked down. Many people don't show any symptoms at all, and if the low risk population can return to work they will have an opportunity to get ahead with wages + UBI while assuaging the downturn. Just my thoughts.

    7 votes
  10. Comment on Trump says he could demote Fed chair Powell, risking more market turmoil in ~finance

    SantalBlush
    Link Parent
    Of course you don't buy my argument. You don't understand the role of monetary policy and how it fits within the larger toolbox of economic controls. There are plenty of examples of when cutting...

    Okay, but I'm not buying your argument, partially because your supporting facts don't seem to be true. There are signs of a credit crunch. I will start a new topic with one article.

    Of course you don't buy my argument. You don't understand the role of monetary policy and how it fits within the larger toolbox of economic controls. There are plenty of examples of when cutting rates is ineffective or is a bad idea, like when it causes inflation or a liquidity trap. An interest rate cut is not a panacea for economic downturns, and the fact that you think it is raises a red flag.

  11. Comment on Trump says he could demote Fed chair Powell, risking more market turmoil in ~finance

    SantalBlush
    Link Parent
    It could be better if the Fed didn't act. This is my point.

    But it could also be worse if the Fed didn't act.

    It could be better if the Fed didn't act. This is my point.

  12. Comment on Trump says he could demote Fed chair Powell, risking more market turmoil in ~finance

    SantalBlush
    Link Parent
    That's not the point. The Fed handles monetary policy only; it doesn't have the right tools to fix every economic problem. The economy is not struggling due to a credit crunch. This is an entirely...

    Well, hopefully both. The government can do more than one thing, and the Fed's job is to worry about the economy.

    That's not the point. The Fed handles monetary policy only; it doesn't have the right tools to fix every economic problem. The economy is not struggling due to a credit crunch. This is an entirely different situation from 2008.

    So when the Fed tries to intervene, the effect of its policies can vary substantially. Sometimes a rate cut can result in, say, a 40% improvement to the economy (to simplify a lot), or a 5% improvement, or it can even cause more harm than good, depending on the cause of the downturn.

  13. Comment on Trump says he could demote Fed chair Powell, risking more market turmoil in ~finance

    SantalBlush
    Link Parent
    If the Fed props up the stock market with rate cuts and QE, it's creating a bubble, plain and simple. You're not wrong about lower rates increasing borrowing, but think about it: that still...

    If the Fed props up the stock market with rate cuts and QE, it's creating a bubble, plain and simple. You're not wrong about lower rates increasing borrowing, but think about it: that still doesn't touch the underlying problem, which is that factories and stores are closing their doors while this thing blows over. The best way to help the economy right now is for the US government to mitigate the actual problem (a pandemic) and roll out a concrete plan for restarting business operations.

    Those are my two cents, anyway. I think this problem isn't fixed by monetary or fiscal policy, but rather by the government doing its job and slowing the spread of this thing.

    2 votes
  14. Comment on Trump says he could demote Fed chair Powell, risking more market turmoil in ~finance

    SantalBlush
    Link Parent
    Thanks, but I was asking the other commenter because "Why wait?" seems to imply that this was an obvious choice to mitigate an oncoming recession, when it is anything but that. As you say, this is...

    Thanks, but I was asking the other commenter because "Why wait?" seems to imply that this was an obvious choice to mitigate an oncoming recession, when it is anything but that.

    As you say, this is largely a supply shock, and the markets need to reflect that reality. This rate cut just seems like an attempt to inflate asset prices.

    1 vote
  15. Comment on Trump says he could demote Fed chair Powell, risking more market turmoil in ~finance

    SantalBlush
    Link Parent
    What do you believe this move by the Fed was supposed to accomplish?

    What do you believe this move by the Fed was supposed to accomplish?

  16. Comment on Is this unprecedented? in ~health.coronavirus

    SantalBlush
    Link Parent
    Administrators of smaller and more rural towns seem to be having serious talks now. Probably a lot more closings to come within the next few days. Make sure you're stocked up on video games, people.

    Administrators of smaller and more rural towns seem to be having serious talks now. Probably a lot more closings to come within the next few days.

    Make sure you're stocked up on video games, people.

    11 votes
  17. Comment on Elizabeth Warren is ending her presidential campaign in ~news

    SantalBlush
    Link Parent
    Yeah, he seems more like a soft distributist, one who believes in markets and property rights but also believes in setting a cap on wealth/power concentration, regardless of how "fair" the...

    Yeah, he seems more like a soft distributist, one who believes in markets and property rights but also believes in setting a cap on wealth/power concentration, regardless of how "fair" the mechanisms are by which that power is concentrated.

    3 votes
  18. Comment on Elizabeth Warren is ending her presidential campaign in ~news

    SantalBlush
    Link Parent
    This is from Bernie's Twitter yesterday, responding to the same accusation from Biden: This is why we're supporting Sanders, for whatever it's worth. It has nothing to do with being anti-moderate,...

    This is from Bernie's Twitter yesterday, responding to the same accusation from Biden:

    No, Joe. The "establishment" are the 60 billionaires who are funding your campaign and the corporate-funded super PACs that are spending millions on negative ads attacking me.

    This is why we're supporting Sanders, for whatever it's worth. It has nothing to do with being anti-moderate, insofar as moderates have the interest of all Americans in mind. To Biden, taking on billionaire donors is the same as taking on the Democratic establishment. That speaks more about Biden than Sanders.

    5 votes
  19. Comment on Bloomberg drops out of presidential race, endorses Biden in ~news

    SantalBlush
    Link Parent
    I knew that was going to be the Network boardroom talk before I clicked. This should be required viewing in high school civics class.

    I knew that was going to be the Network boardroom talk before I clicked. This should be required viewing in high school civics class.

    4 votes