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  1. Comment on Predict the next five years in the US in ~talk

    deckof51
    Link Parent
    Do you think home prices will plummet in 2023? If so, what will be the trigger?

    Do you think home prices will plummet in 2023? If so, what will be the trigger?

    2 votes

  2. Comment on Predict the next five years in the US in ~talk

    deckof51
    Link Parent
    Broadly speaking, you're right, and it grants me a little hope to be reminded just how unpredictable great developments are. But at certain times--and especially from privileged vantages--it's...

    Broadly speaking, you're right, and it grants me a little hope to be reminded just how unpredictable great developments are. But at certain times--and especially from privileged vantages--it's possible to say, "This shit is going to blow up before too long." I worked for a company that in 2005 was quietly being gutted. When offices across the nation compared notes over an online forum, a pattern emerged that was sufficiently clear for even low-level workers to predict the manner of its demise. Sometimes the limb snaps, but takes some time to hit the forest floor. In 2005, I compared my employer against the nation's circumstances at the start of Cheney's second term and foresaw a widespread crash. In 2014, it was obvious that police murder of black citizens would precipitate enduring conflict, which would involve the military. And while I laughed when Trump rode that escalator into his candidacy, I cried hysterically when he took office, because the shape of the ensuing four years was just too easy to anticipate.

    Maybe the trouble with my reasoning is that these days its impossible to see the forest for the red flags wholly blocking the view.

    3 votes

  3. Predict the next five years in the US

    ~talk Text 51 words
    How do you see the next 5 years playing out, politically, economically, socially, militarily? In areas that hit closest to you? I feel I'm not confident in making a forecast more specific than...

    How do you see the next 5 years playing out, politically, economically, socially, militarily? In areas that hit closest to you? I feel I'm not confident in making a forecast more specific than “nothing good will happen." And yet I have to make huge decisions about where to live and work.

    6 votes