hugeidiot's recent activity

  1. Comment on RB contract value and labor rights in ~sports.american_football

    hugeidiot
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    I think that's probably right, and probably assisted with Fantasy Football giving them more recognition, but the turnover is so fast. Very few older backs maintain a media presence and there's...

    I think that's probably right, and probably assisted with Fantasy Football giving them more recognition, but the turnover is so fast. Very few older backs maintain a media presence and there's always a new young guy coming in.

    I don't really think viewer attention or sponsorships are zero-sum, but there has to be some level of displacement, right?

  2. Comment on RB contract value and labor rights in ~sports.american_football

    hugeidiot
    Link Parent
    Agreed. Honestly, I think the majority of it is injury-related, which is inherently connected to the rookie wage scale and how long these guys get locked up. Hadn't considered the...

    Agreed. Honestly, I think the majority of it is injury-related, which is inherently connected to the rookie wage scale and how long these guys get locked up. Hadn't considered the interconnectedness between TE transitioning out of supporting RBs by blocking to taking more of the pie themselves as pass-catchers.

    I'm pro fun conspiracies. I would love to find out that GMs are essentially playing fantasy, mostly because it would embolden the "I could do that" crowd. I also find that the realities of upper management in most organizations is that the decisions are far less thought out than anyone outside it would've guessed.

    1 vote

  3. Comment on RB contract value and labor rights in ~sports.american_football

    hugeidiot
    Link Parent
    Oh interesting, I've never considered athletes having a mass adjustment in position causing us returning to some sort of equilibrium. It's not totally clear to me what proportion of the issue is...

    Oh interesting, I've never considered athletes having a mass adjustment in position causing us returning to some sort of equilibrium.

    It's not totally clear to me what proportion of the issue is replaceability vs rookie wage scale vs being low-value, but hopefully that adjustment happens and fixes a big portion.

    Agree, re: things becoming slightly more position-less. Hadn't thought of the FB parallel, that's a good point. I wonder if there's lessons there.

  4. RB contract value and labor rights

    ~sports.american_football Ask
    I've been keeping a finger on the pulse of analytics & contract valuation in the NFL for the last few years (as a fan, not related to my profession). Anyone else who has been of fan of this is...

    I've been keeping a finger on the pulse of analytics & contract valuation in the NFL for the last few years (as a fan, not related to my profession). Anyone else who has been of fan of this is probably aware that we hit a pretty serious breaking point yesterday, as a handful of top-end RBs failed to reach deals with their respective teams resulting in them being franchise tagged. I was wondering what others thought about this whole fiasco.

    My thoughts:

    In one sense, this is simply effective roster management: RBs add little win probability by themselves (i.e., their production is largely a result of the offensive line and passing game), their age curve is poor (i.e., they're typically out of highly productive years by the end of their rookie deals), and they're easily replaced by rookie talent.

    On the other hand, these guys take a beating to produce a product we all love. They spend some of their best years in the college system, where they do seem to add a lot of win probability, being totally uncompensated. They get to the NFL only to have their potential earnings suppressed by the rookie wage scale, then get franchise tagged guaranteeing they'll be SOL with respect to a deal with big fully-guaranteed cash.

    What's the solution here? Assuming the draft is an efficient(-ish) market, adjusting the rookie pay scale for them will just cause teams to adjust their drafting behavior. Letting RBs arrive to the NFL sooner than everyone is something that the NCAA almost certainly won't allow without a vicious fight. Is there any hope for these guys?

    edit: typos

    9 votes