Global solar installations to reach 469–592 GW this year

Solar photovoltaic installation projections estimate an installed nameplate capacity of up to 533 GW by the end of the year. (Pessimistically, it could be more like 469 GW.) Some other sources are quoting installations as high as 592 GW in 2024.

As of 2022, total nameplate electricity generation capacity was about 8 TW. That means that in 2024, during which 500 GW of solar was installed, the equivalent of 1/16 of all electricity generation was installed in a renewable format. In ONE year!!! And really only about 4.5 TW of electricity generation globally is from fossil fuels, which means 1/9 was actually installed in a single year (just from solar).

If you are a great mathematician you may be able to surmise that, if this trend holds linearly, it would take ~8 more years for solar (by itself) to replace all existing fossil fuel electrical generation capacity. Of course, solar is not doing this by itself: it has wind on its side. By the end of 2024, experts forecast another ~85 GW of wind energy installations globally. If we take the rosy solar forecast (592 GW) plus the wind forecast (84 GW), that is 676 GW of new renewable capacty in 2024, close to 15% of fossil capacity replaced with renewables in a single year.

But solar PV demand is expected to rise slightly in 2025. And wind demand is also expected to rise slightly in 2025. Another 600 GW of solar installations next year would be more than feasible, and likely as 650 or optimistically 700 GW. We could expect up to about 90 GW of new wind next year, for a total nearing perhaps 800 GW. Another huge portion chipped away.

There are some sectors that are harder to decarbonize than others. For example, the transportation industry's power usage is mostly not considered in electrical nameplate figures because fossil fuels are combusted for locomotion, not turned into electricity first (mostly). This is why total energy graphs look so dismal. But as I've written on this website before, there is no reason to be gloomy about the renewable trajectory: the amount of total energy generation we actually have to replace with renewables is far lower than shown in such charts.

Replacing dirty fossil grid energy with green renewables is the biggest and easiest ways to reduce emissions that harm our planet's climate and pollute our air (pollution gives you and your children cancer). In 2021, nearly 40% of US emissions were from electricity generation. Nearly 35% were from heating, which is mostly done with fossil gas and oil. However, people are increasingly switching to electric heat pumps purely for economic and efficiency reasons, even people who are largely tuned out of climate stuff. The rest is mostly from transportation, but I have no doubt that slow and steady growth of the electric vehicle market (~6%/yr) will continue.

We will need more electricity generation to accommodate those categories as they switch from fossil fuels to electrical generation, but, per the previous paragraph, we don't need to replace fossil fuel primary energy 1:1 with renewables: actually only about 1/3 of it due to the dramatically greater efficiency of renewables. I don't think aviation will be meaningfully decarbonized in a decade, but even industrial heat applications are moving forward with renewables and modern energy storage technologies.

I know all the Americans here are in a rut over the incoming administration. I can't say I'm particularly pleased, but I find it exceedingly unlikely that most provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (which boosted the renewable sector considerably) would be rolled back given how bipartisanly (??) economically beneficial the act has been to districts across the country. Even if they are diminished, they have already had a major effect in furthering renewable investment in the private sector and making the technology more economically feasible permanently. Plus, the US isn't the whole world, and from a strictly absolute standpoint it's probably more important for the energy transition to take place in India and China, where it will certainly continue. (They don't depend on the US for any renewable technology. China is way ahead on solar manufacturing.) Europe doesn't have quite the same manufacturing setup as China for solar, but they are likewise forging ahead with the EU's 2023 Net Zero Industry Act.

I think about it this way: we don't need to reduce fossil fuel use to 0% to make a meaningful climate difference. Taking it from our current baseline down 5%, or 10%, or 50%, or 80%, pushes back the exacerbation of all those extreme weather events and whatever proportionally. We can hit ~20% in four years, ~40% in eight (well, based on US energy distribution), and that makes a heck of a lot of difference. There is a lot of fearmongering about the AMOC and other "climate tipping points," and I can't really comment on those, but I suspect (with no evidence) that most of it is bunk. Don't care. Can't control that anyway.

SERENITY PRAYER

O God, give us the serenity to accept what cannot be changed, the courage to change what can be changed, and the wisdom to know the one from the other.

In any case I believe the point stands that no matter what, extreme weather events will be less bad if global warming is less severe. The numbers are not as good as I would like, but they still don't spell existential catastrophe to me. A near-complete energy transition in ~8 years (pessimistically and likely wrongly assuming linear growth), plus ~5 years for the rest (1/3 of the other energy primary sources), is not half bad. Even with likely increases in power draw from AI in the next few years, we are on a good track (those companies are paying for nuclear installations that will largely cover the difference). If solar continues to accelerate, which projections indicate it will, the majority of that transition will happen even faster.

Action items:

• Contact stakeholders in government on a regular basis to express your support for specific and general renewable projects.
  • Local city councils responsible for permitting solar/wind farms in your local areas.
  • Regional (federal) planning commissions responsible for giving recommendations to cities about transportation and energy projects, including solar installations (Where I live, this is the DVRPC.)
  • State Representatives and State Senators (your postal code has one of each: look up a map in your state).
  • Federal Representatives (you have one) and Senators (you have two). Your voice in support of renewable energy is especially powerful if you live in an area that doesn't typically vote for "the party that cares about climate change." For economic reasons, elected officials always have an incentive to bring infrastructure and energy projects into their local constituencies.
• If it's feasible, install solar, wind, and/or geothermal power in your home. This actually has more impact than you think, because your house merely having solar panels makes all your neighbors significantly more likely to get solar panels themselves. The whole neighborhood going green is pretty significant.
  • If that's not feasible, consider a power purchase agreement with a renewable energy supplier. The market isn't deregulated enough for this everywhere, but if it is (like in my state), it's a valuable contribution. And tell your friends too.
• Replace your oil or natural gas heating system with an electric heat pump. They work in the cold. Except if you live in the far north of Saskatchewan, modern electric heat pumps can do the job just fine.
• Purchase energy-efficient appliances where possible, and weatherize your home to the extent possible.
• Consider purchasing an electric vehicle the next time you buy, even if the price is higher than you prefer. Obviously, if it's financially impossible, OK. And if it is literally impossible for you to charge it, OK. But don't let range anxiety get the best of you: the charging network is vast, and nearly any routes you would realistically take have perfectly suitable coverage. Given a certain someone's new federal cabinet position, you can expect the charging infrastructure to corruptly but beneficially expand considerably in the next few years. (But it was going to anyway.)
  • If you can't do that, consider a plug-in hybrid vehicle. This functionally reduces your immediate day-to-day transportation emissions by 90%+ because most trips are under 6 miles, and nearly all under 30 miles, well within PHEV electric range.
  • If you can't do that, try to replace some driving trips with cycling or walking trips. I think it is more fun anyway.
• In future elections, vote for candidates who support renewable energy, especially on the local level. Those permits are actually the barrier in a lot of places, so having people in local offices who support fast-tracking them is a win.