3 votes Monetary policy, inflation outlook, and recession probabilities Posted July 14 by HotPants Tags: federal reserve, yield curve, interest rates, recession, usa, fiscal policy, inflation, central bank, author.andrea ajello, author.luca benzoni, author.makena schwinn, author.yannick timmer, author.francisco vazquez grande, long read https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/monetary-policy-inflation-outlook-and-recession-probabilities-20220712.htm Link information This data is scraped automatically and may be incorrect. Word count 3397 words 1 comment Collapse replies Expand all Comments sorted by most votes newest first order posted relevance OK HotPants (OP) July 14 Link Wonkish fed paper that says 30% chance of recession next year. If rates go above inflation however, watch out. Wonkish fed paper that says 30% chance of recession next year. If rates go above inflation however, watch out.