I like how this author puts things in a straightforward way with simple language, so someone like me can understand. It's helpful to look at today's interest rate situation in the context of...
I like how this author puts things in a straightforward way with simple language, so someone like me can understand. It's helpful to look at today's interest rate situation in the context of historical trends, and interesting that the author thinks today's rates are low, in that context.
The bit about cycles felt like a good intuitive way to understand them:
The events that make up each cyclical progression don’t merely follow each other. Much more importantly, each event in the progression is caused by those that went before.
Cyclical oscillation isn’t best thought of as consisting merely of “ups and downs,” but rather as (a) an excessive departure from the midpoint, secular trend or norm in one direction, and (b) a correction of that excess, which often ends up in (c) an excessive continuation of the correction in the opposite direction. “Excesses and corrections” is a much more useful way to think about cycles than “ups and downs.”
Basically what they're saying is economic forces have a natural baseline where things go smoothly, and the central bank is trying to help us get back to that baseline, but also every change has far reaching effects that last a long time, and there's a lot of wait-and-see to figure out if each change is too much or not enough.
I like how this author puts things in a straightforward way with simple language, so someone like me can understand. It's helpful to look at today's interest rate situation in the context of historical trends, and interesting that the author thinks today's rates are low, in that context.
The bit about cycles felt like a good intuitive way to understand them:
Basically what they're saying is economic forces have a natural baseline where things go smoothly, and the central bank is trying to help us get back to that baseline, but also every change has far reaching effects that last a long time, and there's a lot of wait-and-see to figure out if each change is too much or not enough.