Currently economists at the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank are predicting a 44% chance of a recession in the next year in the US. It is a simple single variate prediction based on the yield spread...
Currently economists at the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank are predicting a 44% chance of a recession in the next year in the US.
It is a simple single variate prediction based on the yield spread between the 3-month and 10-year US treasuries.
The Fed and this administration will not allow a recession before the next election. The market is already pricing in a 25 to 50 basis points cut in September. In Donald's mind he loses the...
The Fed and this administration will not allow a recession before the next election. The market is already pricing in a 25 to 50 basis points cut in September.
In Donald's mind he loses the election if we go into recession.
With Dudley op ed, I think they are painted into a corner Edit: Sorry to expand upon this, and give context Donald Trump started calling the Fed Reserves Chairman Jerome Powell an enemy of him/the...
With Dudley op ed, I think they are painted into a corner
Edit:
Sorry to expand upon this, and give context Donald Trump started calling the Fed Reserves Chairman Jerome Powell an enemy of him/the country. Which the media laughed at and dismissed. Then former NY Fed president Bill Dudley writes an Op Ed Which basically legitimize Trumps tweet.
I mean this statement by Dudley cannot be ignored
There’s even an argument that the election itself falls within the Fed’s purview.
as an aside, with such a boorish blunder it is apropos that his name is Dudley
Currently economists at the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank are predicting a 44% chance of a recession in the next year in the US.
It is a simple single variate prediction based on the yield spread between the 3-month and 10-year US treasuries.
The basis of the model is documented here:
https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2018/404
The Fed and this administration will not allow a recession before the next election. The market is already pricing in a 25 to 50 basis points cut in September.
In Donald's mind he loses the election if we go into recession.
I think if POTUS and the fed actually had that power, the last one wouldn't have happened.
My thesis is that we will see Negative Rates and QE before we see a recession that begins before the election.
With Dudley op ed, I think they are painted into a corner
Edit:
Sorry to expand upon this, and give context Donald Trump started calling the Fed Reserves Chairman Jerome Powell an enemy of him/the country. Which the media laughed at and dismissed. Then former NY Fed president Bill Dudley writes an Op Ed Which basically legitimize Trumps tweet.
I mean this statement by Dudley cannot be ignored
as an aside, with such a boorish blunder it is apropos that his name is Dudley
Expectation is a 25 basis point cut in the Fed Rate on September 18 for America.
https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor
Oh, man... imagine if a democrat were elected to office and this prediction rings true...