Wars are good for domestic defence industry – or should be. President Putin’s ‘special military operation’ has reversed this rule. In 2022 it was possible to disguise – to an extent – the effects of sanctions and unpreparedness of Russian defence industry for a major war. In 2023 the curtain has been pulled back to reveal the Emperor has no clothes, or at any rate is dressed in an old Soviet suit.
This article summarises unit production in the three defence sectors – maritime, aerospace and land – in 2023. It effectively counts ships, aircraft and tanks. This is a basic but not invalid way to check the state of Russian defence industry. The piece does not enter into debate over shell production, missile production or other related topics that deserve articles in their own right.
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The big story of 2023 was the admission that United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC) – Russia’s warship builder and an umbrella for 40 enterprises; shipbuilders, repair yards, and the design bureaus – had a ‘huge financial hole’ and was bankrupt. On 9 October, President Putin transferred USC by decree to the trust management of VTB Bank for a period of five years (a Russian blogger joked ‘bankrupt shipbuilder passed to bankrupt bank’).
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Notwithstanding these difficulties, Russian yards delivered somewhat more warships and submarines in 2023 compared to last year.
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Set against commissioned vessels are combat losses. In 2023, the Russian Navy (Baltic Fleet) lost or suffered damage to more vessels (12) than were commissioned.
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Russian defence aviation plants delivered fewer combat aircraft than last year (an estimated 22 versus 29 in 2022). There is uncertainty over the exact number because in some cases the MOD only released imagery of one aircraft, and in one case no imagery was released.
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As with warships, output has not matched losses. Nearly 90 combat aircraft have been lost of all types, or twice as many as produced in 2022-2023. An exception is the Su-35S where slightly more aircraft have been delivered than lost. The Russian Air Force has been careful not to risk this expensive aircraft, or the Su-34s, instead using the ‘expendable’ Su-25 fleet. However, at the end of the year as many as four Su-34s and one Su-30 were downed, believed ambushed by Patriot missiles.
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It is not possible to count Russian tank production accurately. Some useful observations, nonetheless, can be made.
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At the time of writing, the Oryx database tracking Russian and Ukrainian losses from visual evidence shows Russia has lost around 2,500 tanks (the accurate numbers will be higher because not all losses are visually recorded). In effect, the equivalent of the entire pre-war operational fleet has been lost in 22 months of war.
It can be stated with confidence that Russian defence industry (UVZ and Omsktransmash) has no realistic prospect of matching tank attrition rates. Like a Zeno paradox, the Russian Army’s tank fleet is tending to zero and not advancing one foot forward.
From the article:
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