skybrian's recent activity

  1. Comment on Mystery trader garners $400,000-plus windfall on Nicolas Maduro's capture in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    This is all justified as a way to get more useful public information, but I think the value of that information is pretty sparse and low-value because it’s opaque. It’s a Ouija board. You get out...

    This is all justified as a way to get more useful public information, but I think the value of that information is pretty sparse and low-value because it’s opaque. It’s a Ouija board. You get out changes to a number on a graph and nobody really knows why. Confident whales can lose and there’s no way to check their work.

    Perhaps the conversation around a prediction market could have some value, like someone betting and then posting evidence to try to convince others.

    10 votes
  2. Comment on Grok AI generates images of ‘minors in minimal clothing’ in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link
    X blames users for Grok-generated CSAM; no fixes announced [...] [...]

    X blames users for Grok-generated CSAM; no fixes announced

    On Saturday, X Safety finally posted an official response after nearly a week of backlash over Grok outputs that sexualized real people without consent. Offering no apology for Grok’s functionality, X Safety blamed users for prompting Grok to produce CSAM while reminding them that such prompts can trigger account suspensions and possible legal consequences.

    “We take action against illegal content on X, including Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM), by removing it, permanently suspending accounts, and working with local governments and law enforcement as necessary,” X Safety said. “Anyone using or prompting Grok to make illegal content will suffer the same consequences as if they upload illegal content.”

    [...]

    X did not immediately respond to Ars’ request to clarify if any updates were made to Grok following the CSAM controversy. Many media outlets weirdly took Grok at its word when the chatbot responded to prompts demanding an apology by claiming that X would be improving its safeguards. But X Safety’s response now seems to contradict the chatbot, which, as Ars noted last week, should never be considered reliable as a spokesperson.

    [...]

    While some users are focused on how X can hold users responsible for Grok’s outputs when X is the one training the model, others are questioning how exactly X plans to moderate illegal content that Grok seems capable of generating.

    1 vote
  3. Comment on The year of the 3D printed miniature (and other lies we tell ourselves) in ~hobbies

    skybrian
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    I think that's slightly exaggerated at the end. Customers collectively do get somewhat of a say, because product launches from big companies do fail fairly often. Lots of Google's products failed...

    I think that's slightly exaggerated at the end. Customers collectively do get somewhat of a say, because product launches from big companies do fail fairly often. Lots of Google's products failed to get traction (by their standards) and they eventually cancelled them.

    It might not seem like it because it's about whether it's popular with other people and the company does decide whether to keep trying or pull the plug. We don't have control over this as individuals.

    1 vote
  4. Comment on You are a better writer than AI (yes, YOU!) in ~creative

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    It seems like there ought to be a way to use an LLM to help people with mediocre English skills that improves grammar and usage without making other things worse? But getting that to happen might...

    It seems like there ought to be a way to use an LLM to help people with mediocre English skills that improves grammar and usage without making other things worse? But getting that to happen might require someone to write new software to provide the right scaffolding.

    Maybe it will get better at some companies as best practices become better known, but it will take time to develop those.

  5. Comment on The year of the 3D printed miniature (and other lies we tell ourselves) in ~hobbies

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: [...] [...] [...] [...] [...] [...]

    From the article:

    Every time a new 3D printer startup graced the front page of Hacker News, this proclamation would echo from the comments section like a prophecy from a very boring oracle: "This will destroy Games Workshop." Reader, it has not destroyed Games Workshop. [...]

    [...]

    Since the beginning of the game, 40k casual games have allowed proxies. Proxies are stand-ins for specific units that you need for an army but don't have. [...]

    [...]

    So players had proxies. Anything from a Coke can to another unit entirely. Basically, if it had the same size base and roughly the same height, most people would consider it allowable. "This empty Red Bull can is my Dreadnought." Sure. Fine. We've all been there.

    This is where I first started to see 3D-printed miniatures enter the scene.

    [...]

    When I was invited to watch someone print off minis with a resin 3D printer, it reminded me a lot of the meth labs in my home state of Ohio. And I don't mean that as hyperbole. I mean there were chemicals, ventilation hoods, rubber gloves, and a general atmosphere of "if something goes wrong here, it's going to go very wrong." The guy giving me the tour had safety goggles pushed up on his forehead. He was wearing an apron. At one point, he said the phrase "you really don't want to get this on your skin" with the casual tone of someone who had definitely gotten it on his skin.

    In practice, the effort to get the STL files, add supports, wash off the models with isopropyl alcohol, remove supports without snapping off tiny arms, and finally cure the mini in UV lights was exponentially more effort than I'm willing to invest. And I say this as someone who has painted individual eyeballs on figures smaller than my thumb. I have a high tolerance for tedious bullshit. This exceeded it.

    [...]

    Here's the thing: getting the raw plastic minis is not the time-consuming part.

    First, you need to paint them. I take about two hours to paint each model, and I'm far from the best painter out there. I'm solidly in the "looks good from three feet away" category, which is also how I'd describe my general appearance. Vehicles take longer because they're bigger—maybe 10-20 hours for one of those. We're talking somewhere in the ballpark of 150 hours to paint everything that you need to paint for a standard army.

    [...]

    The printer didn't give them more time. It didn't give them more skill. It just gave them more unpainted plastic, which, brother, I have plenty of already.

    [...]

    So the next time someone tells you that some new technology is going to "disrupt" something you love, ask yourself: do they actually understand why people love it? [...]

    10 votes
  6. Comment on US strikes Venezuela and says its leader, Nicolas Maduro, has been captured and flown out of the country in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    There's plenty of cheap crap made in China, but there is high-quality manufacturing too. For example, Apple products are manufactured there. Since I don't know much about the Chinese navy, I would...

    There's plenty of cheap crap made in China, but there is high-quality manufacturing too. For example, Apple products are manufactured there.

    Since I don't know much about the Chinese navy, I would want to read more it before drawing any conclusions. Have you read anything good?

    9 votes
  7. Comment on What are some stories of progressivism gone wrong in implementation? in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    It's not in the title anymore, and the stories are not all about hiring. Also, I think it's healthy for us to be able to talk about mistakes made by "our side" on Tildes, hopefully in a respectful...

    It's not in the title anymore, and the stories are not all about hiring.

    Also, I think it's healthy for us to be able to talk about mistakes made by "our side" on Tildes, hopefully in a respectful way. I was pleasantly surprised that someone was willing to do this, and there are some decent stories.

    18 votes
  8. Comment on What are some stories of progressivism gone wrong in implementation? in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    I don’t think that’s true since some of the stories are about mistakes made by management.

    I don’t think that’s true since some of the stories are about mistakes made by management.

    11 votes
  9. Comment on Grok AI generates images of ‘minors in minimal clothing’ in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Responsibility for accidents in large organizations is often complicated. I think there are some more useful questions to ask: How fast do they fix the problem? What are they doing to ensure that...

    Responsibility for accidents in large organizations is often complicated. I think there are some more useful questions to ask:

    • How fast do they fix the problem?

    • What are they doing to ensure that nothing similar ever happens again?

    A responsible, safety-conscious organization will have processes to drive accident rates towards zero. This often has little to do with figuring out which employee is to blame. Sometimes someone needs to be fired due to malace, but that’s often not the case.

    But I have no confidence that X is like that, due to its leadership.

    5 votes
  10. Comment on What are some stories of progressivism gone wrong in implementation? in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    What would you suggest?

    What would you suggest?

    1 vote
  11. Comment on US strikes Venezuela and says its leader, Nicolas Maduro, has been captured and flown out of the country in ~society

    skybrian
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    Some say there's nothing to cheer about, but apparently there are a lot of Venezuelans who disagree? In exile, Venezuelans greet Maduro’s fall with joy — and fear of what comes next ... It seems...

    Some say there's nothing to cheer about, but apparently there are a lot of Venezuelans who disagree?

    In exile, Venezuelans greet Maduro’s fall with joy — and fear of what comes next

    Across the United States, Venezuelans gathered in major cities home to significant diasporas to celebrate and cautiously muse with relatives back home about what comes next after U.S. forces captured and swept the South American president out of the country on drug trafficking charges. Venezuelans across the nation and globe have been pining for Maduro’s ouster for years, and many had begun to worry it was a day they might not live to see.

    But the embattled leader’s removal through a U.S. military intervention and the continuing presence of Maduro allies in the government also fueled anxiety. Soon after news of the president’s arrest, his authoritarian government’s top officials and his own son assured Venezuelans that Maduro left behind a plan that ensures their uninterrupted authority over state affairs.

    ...

    Some Venezuelans are approaching the moment more cautiously, warning that the situation inside the country remains volatile and unresolved. In remarks aired on state television, Rodríguez condemned the U.S. intervention and said Venezuela will never be “slave” to another nation. She continued to refer to Maduro as “president.”

    “Everyone is wondering if the Venezuelan military is still with the government or will go against it,” said Ana Gil Garcia, a Chicago nonprofit leader assisting Venezuelan migrants. She added that members of the military have long propped up the legitimacy of the Maduro government. “That is worrisome, because a civil war could erupt.”

    It seems far too soon to say how it works out for Venezuela. There are other cases where things got worse after getting rid of a dictator.

    8 votes
  12. Comment on Luxury apartments reduced rent in some big US cities in ~finance

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    I suspect they built thousands of luxury apartments in some sunbelt cities because the land was there, they were allowed to, and the demand was there. It's harder to build in some cities than others.

    I suspect they built thousands of luxury apartments in some sunbelt cities because the land was there, they were allowed to, and the demand was there. It's harder to build in some cities than others.

    6 votes
  13. Comment on Scalable oral exams with an ElevenLabs voice AI agent in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    I don't think there are many jobs where you just read and write papers? Academics are expected to be able to teach, too. Also, most papers are collaborations these days, at least in the sciences....

    I don't think there are many jobs where you just read and write papers? Academics are expected to be able to teach, too. Also, most papers are collaborations these days, at least in the sciences.

    I started working before widespread videoconferencing. I valued being able to talk to teammates about technical problems in an informal meeting in front of a whiteboard. I'm under the impression that academics have conversations in front of whiteboards too? There's the old stereotype of mathematicians chatting together while writing equations on a blackboard.

    Google was founded by two graduate students and I think that's the sort of experience that Google's interviews tried to replicate with in-person interviews, however imperfectly: are they someone that I'd want to work with to come up with a design to solve a technical problem?

    On the other hand, since we normally write code in front of a computer, not at a whiteboard, I always thought pair programming together would be a good interview test, but it wasn't done. Nowadays, maybe they'll start testing people on their ability to vibe-code, who knows?

    7 votes
  14. Comment on Luxury apartments reduced rent in some big US cities in ~finance

    skybrian
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    Yeah, it's a funny way to put it. The nationwide average might as well be rounded to "no change." Nobody lives in a nationwide average, though. People live in specific places. Apparently rents for...

    Yeah, it's a funny way to put it. The nationwide average might as well be rounded to "no change."

    Nobody lives in a nationwide average, though. People live in specific places. Apparently rents for some apartments in some cities decreased.

    11 votes
  15. Comment on Luxury apartments reduced rent in some big US cities in ~finance

    skybrian
    Link
    https://archive.is/N1ArH [...] [...] [...]

    https://archive.is/N1ArH

    The US’s average rental rate fell 0.18 percent in November, the largest monthly drop in more than 15 years, according to real estate research firm CoStar. Driving that decline: lower rents in big cities like Austin, Denver and Phoenix, as well as vacation destinations like Naples, Florida; Asheville, North Carolina; and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

    New building openings are bringing rents down as wealthy tenants trade up, forcing landlords to drop prices for older apartments. Rents for older units have fallen as much as 11%, and some are now on offer at rates as low as homes that are usually designated as “affordable” and come with restrictions including rent control and rent stabilization.

    [...]

    The cities where older buildings’ rents fell the most saw new apartments built at a much higher rate than the national average. In the cities that added new apartments at lower rates — below the national average — rents barely budged.

    [...]

    The supply of luxury buildings over the past couple of years has driven down rents and helped ease some of the affordability issues in those cities even though the development of affordable housing was comparatively slow, amounting to hundreds rather than thousands of new units built per quarter.

    [...]

    To be sure, relying on luxury developments to address the housing crisis isn’t a long-term solution — with developers already pulling back on plans for new buildings in places where rents have fallen the most. The number of new apartments opening for rent across the country is expected to drop by half next year from its mid-2024 peak.

    4 votes
  16. Comment on Scalable oral exams with an ElevenLabs voice AI agent in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Maybe it makes sense to compare this to playing music. If you know how to play, you should be able to play something in front of someone else, right? But now it's a high-stress situation. I don't...

    Maybe it makes sense to compare this to playing music. If you know how to play, you should be able to play something in front of someone else, right? But now it's a high-stress situation. I don't know how to fix it except by practicing and performing enough that I build up some confidence. And... I do okay sometimes, but I haven't really reached that point yet.

    Similarly, it seems like you should be able to have a conversation with someone who wrote a paper and they should be able to answer questions about it. The question is how to do it without making it high-stress, when how well they do actually matters to them. Hopefully practice helps?

    I did hundreds of job interviews over the years while working at Google and it was the worst part of the job, even though I wasn't the one being tested. I hate judging people. Eventually I stopped doing them. I hope something better comes along.

    3 votes
  17. Comment on Grok AI generates images of ‘minors in minimal clothing’ in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Yeah, if it’s open source, maybe they used it. Who knows? But there are plenty of other ways for ideas to spread in a fast-moving field. For example, when AI researchers come up with a new...

    Yeah, if it’s open source, maybe they used it. Who knows?

    But there are plenty of other ways for ideas to spread in a fast-moving field.

    For example, when AI researchers come up with a new technique, they will often write a paper about how they did it, because that’s how you make your reputation and it also helps with hiring. There is also sometimes open source code to go along with a paper.

    If the technique isn’t published, I expect that the AI labs are watching each other and attempting to work out how other firms did it.

    I wouldn’t expect all that much direct copying of proprietary code because they have different systems and rewriting it to work locally is part of understanding it.

    6 votes
  18. Comment on Grok AI generates images of ‘minors in minimal clothing’ in ~tech

    skybrian
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    Grok Is Being Used to Depict Horrific Violence Against Real Women

    Grok Is Being Used to Depict Horrific Violence Against Real Women

    In addition to the sexual imagery of underage girls, the women depicted in Grok-generated nonconsensual porn range from some who appear to be private citizens to a slew of celebrities, from famous actresses to the First Lady of the United States. And somehow, that was only the tip of the iceberg.

    When we dug through this content, we noticed another stomach-churning variation of the trend: Grok, at the request of users, altering images to depict real women being sexually abused, humiliated, hurt, and even killed.

    Much of this material was directed at online models and sex workers […]

    4 votes