skybrian's recent activity

  1. Comment on Taiwanese go deep into debt to amp 100% stock rally in ~finance

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: [...] [...] [...]

    From the article:

    AI mania has gripped any number of stock markets across the globe in recent months — South Korea, China, the U.S. — but perhaps nowhere is it as frenzied as in Taiwan, the No. 1 producer of the chips that power the technology.

    Teenagers are rushing to open brokerage accounts; spikes in trading volumes are crashing firms’ websites; and the Taiwanese market, up over 100% in the past year, is rallying so fast that in a matter of weeks it overtook the U.K., Canada and India to become the world’s fifth largest.

    Much of this boom is, like in Cheng’s case, fueled by heaps of money borrowed at rock-bottom interest rates. So much so that many of the island’s brokerages have hit their internal limits on certain types of loans, forcing them to demand more collateral and bump up their rates, according to people familiar with the matter. Those investors who are rebuffed by their brokers often just turn to their banks for leverage instead, taking out new loans or canceling financial products to free up cash.

    The borrowing binge is so intense, and has spread so deeply across the financial system, that it even disrupted a recent central bank debt auction. Not enough buyers showed up to buy all the debt on sale on June 3, the first time that’s ever happened.

    [...]

    Moreover, the speculative mania sweeping Taiwan today is rapidly approaching the fevered pitch it reached during the dotcom days. Over the past 12 months, the amount of money investors borrowed from brokerages to finance stock purchases swelled 160%, leaving it near an all-time high set just before the 2000 crash. That surge in margin debt, as it is called, dwarfs the 50% increase recorded in the final 12 months of the bubble back then. It even tops the 94% rise posted recently in Asia’s other AI powerhouse, South Korea, a country where the government has worked relentlessly to fan stock-investing fever and drive the market higher.

    [...]

    Investor demand for loans has been so torrid that Taiwanese brokers have themselves embarked on a borrowing spree to shore up working capital. They’ve issued nearly $1.2 billion in bonds this year, more than seven times the amount raised in all of 2025.

    [...]

    Some firms have instructed sales staff to push their most aggressive clients to rein in risk. Others have started stress-testing their loan portfolios against a sudden plunge in the market of, say, 20% or 30%.

    4 votes

  3. Comment on Clarence Thomas gives US border agents terrifying new power in ~society

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: [...] [...]

    From the article:

    On Tuesday, the Supreme Court blessed this Kafkaesque nightmare by a 6–3 vote along the usual partisan lines. Justice Clarence Thomas’ majority opinion in Blanche v. Lau declared that officers do not need “clear and convincing evidence” that a green-card holder committed “a crime of moral turpitude” before treating them as an “applicant for admission” who may be denied entry, detained, or (at best) conditionally allowed back in on parole. Indeed, Thomas expressly declined to say what, if any, burden the government bears at the border—an ambiguity that the Trump administration will surely exploit to throw green-card holders into deportation limbo. As Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson explained in dissent, “the court has now handed the government a massive blank check” to hollow out “the benefits and security that come with having a green card.”

    The origins of Tuesday’s case illustrate its stakes. In 2012, a green-card holder named Muk Choi Lau returned to the United States after a trip to China. At that time, he faced criminal charges for selling designer-style shorts with a counterfeit trademark. As a lawful permanent resident, or LPR, Lau would typically be let into the country without hassle, deemed “already admitted” rather than “seeking admission.” But a border officer noticed the pending criminal charges and refused to formally admit him. Instead—playing prosecutor, judge, and jury—the officer deemed Lau to have committed “a crime involving moral turpitude.” And federal law permits the government to treat a lawful permanent resident who has committed such a crime as an “alien seeking admission” rather than someone already admitted to the country. The officer invoked this exception against Lau, snatching his green card and “paroling” him into the country. That move made Lau far more vulnerable to detention and deportation than if he had been admitted as an LPR.

    [...]

    Now consider Thomas’ distortion of the congressional scheme. In his telling, the government may simply accuse an LPR of committing a crime, strip them of the protections that ordinarily come with permanent residency, and then spend years gathering the evidence needed to retroactively justify that decision. It need only prove its accusation to an immigration judge much later, and that proof somehow backfills the evidence the officer lacked at the border. Thomas would not even say that border officers bear any burden of proof before consigning LPRs to this legal purgatory, and he left open the possibility that they have no such burden at all. That would mean that an officer could simply invent an accusation of criminality, leaving the green-card holder trapped in a bureaucratic twilight zone for years before they have a chance to rebut the accusation at a hearing.

    [...]

    And that twilight zone has serious costs—a fact that Thomas ignores but Jackson rightly highlights. Without a permanent green card, it is harder for legal permanent residents “to work, open bank accounts, secure housing, obtain health insurance, and enroll in school,” Jackson noted. It is also easier for the government to deport them. A typical green-card holder may not be removed unless the government proves they’re deportable. An LPR in Lau’s situation, by contrast, bears the burden of proving in immigration court that they are entitled to remain. Moreover, a single conviction for a crime of moral turpitude can be enough to expel an LPR in Lau’s position, even when that same conviction would not be enough to deport a green-card holder who had been formally admitted. They may even be detained for months or years while their case grinds through immigration court.

    5 votes

  5. Comment on US Congress clears housing bill, cementing a rare bipartisan feat in ~society

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: [...] [...] [...] [...]

    From the article:

    The House on Tuesday overwhelmingly passed a landmark housing bill, notching a rare bipartisan accomplishment ahead of the midterm elections and clearing the way for President Trump to sign the most significant piece of housing legislation in 36 years.

    The bill’s passage, by a lopsided 358-to-32 vote, ended months of sparring between the House and the Senate over a sprawling measure that aims to tackle the housing crisis by boosting supply in a country facing an acute shortage of new homes. The Senate passed its version of the same bill Monday, by a vote of 85 to 5.

    [...]

    With dozens of provisions, the 21st Century Road to Housing Act aims to touch communities across the country, addressing rural and urban needs as part of a strategy to eventually bring down housing costs. It loosens federal regulations, making it easier, faster and cheaper to build; eases lending rules; rewards communities that build; delivers aid to communities reeling from disasters; and, in a policy that proved to be one of the biggest flash points but was favored by Mr. Trump, sets new limits on the role institutional investors can play in the market.

    [...]

    Chief among the sticking points was a provision to check institutional investors, which had been crafted in negotiations among White House officials, Senator Tim Scott, the South Carolina Republican who leads the Banking Committee, and Ms. Warren.

    The measure prohibits corporate entities from owning more than 350 existing single-family homes, although it does not require them to sell homes purchased before the measure became law. A stricter proposal that would have required investors to sell single-family homes built explicitly as rentals after seven years was dropped; it had prompted a backlash by home builders and affordable housing advocates, who feared it would discourage new home construction.

    [...]

    The bill tackles the crisis from different angles. For example, manufactured homes, which are built in a factory and arrive at a site on a truck, will no longer have to be built on a steel chassis to meet federal standards, a change that could shave thousands of dollars of the cost of these homes, and expand the types of designs factories can build. The bill also loosens lending rules for these homes and provides grants to communities to repair existing ones, which are often cheaper and faster to build than stick-built homes.

    [...]

    The bill also makes new construction of affordable housing eligible for certain federal grants; cuts requirements around environmental reviews to make it easier for communities to build faster; and offers funding for communities that are building housing to improve infrastructure.

    And it loosens regulations overseeing community banks and makes it easier to get small mortgages of less than $100,000, an issue important in rural communities where housing costs are lower.

    2 votes

  7. Comment on Micah Lasher wins New York primary to succeed his political mentor in star-studded contest in ~society

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: [...] [...] [...]

    From the article:

    New York Assembly member Micah Lasher won the Democratic primary Tuesday to succeed his political mentor Rep. Jerrold Nadler in the House, following a bitter primary that started as a celebrity contest and evolved into a proxy war between AI giants.

    The district is a solidly blue seat, meaning Lasher is likely to win the general election in November. The New York City-based district is one of the richest and most highly educated and has sent liberal icons to Congress. Lasher was endorsed by Nadler and favored by many of New York’s top Democrats.

    [...]

    In the final weeks of the race, Lasher was in a close contest with Bores as the primary evolved into a spendathon between AI firms OpenAI and Anthropic, which each poured millions into super PACs to influence the race.

    The race wound up among the most expensive House primaries in New York history, with more than $26 million spent on TV ads alone, according to the political tracking firm AdImpact.

    [...]

    Bores became a target of groups funded by investors behind OpenAI after shepherding a high-profile AI regulatory bill through the state assembly last year. His RAISE Act created new safety standards for AI developers including multimillion dollar penalties in New York state. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) signed the bill into law in December, and Bores vowed to advance similar legislation federally if elected to Congress.

    [...]

    Bores said the multi-million dollar effort against him was a warning from the AI industry to other Democrats not to pass robust AI regulation. During his concession speech Tuesday night, he urged Democrats “to look at this campaign, not as a cautionary tale, but as a blueprint to take into the future.”

    Still, Bores also had deep-pocketed super PACs in his corner, including AI interests — something the OpenAI allies gleefully pointed out. A super PAC funded heavily by Anthropic, Open AI’s most prominent rival, spent more than $4 million in television ads supporting Bores, according to AdImpact. Total spending from Anthropic’s allies for Bores exceeded $10 million. Crypto tycoon Chris Larsen also committed more than $3 million to support Bores.

    Anthropic and OpenAI have engaged in a bitter rivalry that has included competing political funding throughout the midterms. OpenAI has supported federal regulations for AI, while Anthropic has backed state-level legislation akin to Bores’s.

    2 votes

  9. Comment on UNC-Chapel Hill researchers developing the world’s largest sky-survey telescope in ~space

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: [...] [...] [...]

    From the article:

    The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is embarking on a bold new era of astronomical discovery with the construction of the Argus Array, a revolutionary telescope system that will be the first large telescope capable of observing the entire Northern nighttime sky at once and identifying rare cosmic events in real time.

    [...]

    Rather than a single telescope, Argus is composed of an array of 1,200 small telescopes, each observing a different patch of sky. Together, they cover the entire sky in every exposure, ensuring that no transient event — from exploding stars to planetary microlensing events — goes unnoticed. The telescopes are arranged in a unique “pseudofocal” concept — an inverted bowl structure in which large groups of telescopes point inward through a single window. This configuration allows the entire array to operate inside a sealed, laboratory-like environment, protecting the sensitive optical equipment for a decade-long survey and dramatically lowering operating costs.

    The Argus Array’s telescopes form a vast 122,000-megapixel camera — the world’s largest digital camera, by a factor of 30. Argus will take millions of 122-gigapixel images to build the first deep, high-speed movie of the Northern sky, discovering and following cosmic events as they happen.

    [...]

    Argus will generate data at a rate of 2,000 gigabits per second, making it one of the largest producers of scientific data in the world. To deal with this vast data rate, the system will rely on high-speed computing and machine-learning algorithms to analyze data as it is collected, selecting the most interesting events and sky locations for long-term storage.

    [...]

    In addition to its scientific impact, Argus will serve as a cornerstone for open data in astronomy. The project will conduct the deepest and fastest survey of the entire Northern sky to date, and the full dataset will be made publicly available — rapidly and completely.

    3 votes

  11. Comment on Epidurals are a miracle technology in ~health

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: ...

    From the article:

    In an epidural, a flexible tube is inserted under local anesthetic between the spinal vertebrae after the mother has begun having contractions. The analgesic, a combination of local anesthetic, opioids, and occasionally steroids that varies between hospitals, is pumped through the tube directly into the epidural space, located just outside the sac surrounding the spinal cord, where it numbs pain signals from the uterus and pelvis.

    This relieves the entire lower body of pain within around half an hour. The analgesic is then continuously infused through the tube; with modern epidurals, a laboring mother can safely increase her dose at any time by pressing a button.

    ...

    In many developed countries, epidurals are popular, with the majority or a significant minority of laboring women choosing one, especially if giving birth for the first time. Today, 79 percent of American first-time mothers, 64 percent of Irish first-time mothers and just over 50 percent of Norwegian first-time mothers have an epidural. In France, epidurals are even more popular, with 82 percent of all women giving birth vaginally receiving one.

    In poorer countries, use of epidurals is often much lower, due to a lack of awareness among women, cost, and a lack of necessary equipment and staff. In China, 70 percent of women deliver with no pain relief, and the government has targets in place to improve access and so make giving birth better for Chinese women. One report suggests that in India, only around 11 percent of women receive pain relief in labor and awareness is low. A study of 200 pregnant Indian women attending one clinic found that 98 percent did not know it was possible to relieve labor pains and that none had ever heard of anyone using an epidural.

    8 votes

  13. Comment on SpaceX stock tumbles 23% from its high as average investor sees gains wiped out in ~finance

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    It depends on what kind of debt. The Fed reacts to inflation by raising interest rates, so new borrowing is more expensive and short-term debt is more expensive because it has to be rolled over....

    It depends on what kind of debt. The Fed reacts to inflation by raising interest rates, so new borrowing is more expensive and short-term debt is more expensive because it has to be rolled over.

    Also, higher interest rates result in the economy slowing down.

    4 votes

  14. Comment on SpaceX stock tumbles 23% from its high as average investor sees gains wiped out in ~finance

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Unlike normal gambling, the odds aren’t rigged against you. You can win on average by being sensible and patient about your investments. Sometimes in other ways, too. A rising stock market lets...

    Unlike normal gambling, the odds aren’t rigged against you. You can win on average by being sensible and patient about your investments.

    Sometimes in other ways, too. A rising stock market lets everyone think they’re a genius.

    7 votes

  15. Comment on SpaceX stock tumbles 23% from its high as average investor sees gains wiped out in ~finance

    skybrian
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    Pension funds have their downsides too. Companies sometimes underfund them or they can make dubious investments like in private equity firms. They also shut out people who don’t qualify because...

    Pension funds have their downsides too. Companies sometimes underfund them or they can make dubious investments like in private equity firms. They also shut out people who don’t qualify because they change jobs too often.

    5 votes

  16. Comment on Plans for nearly 4,000 homes over Safeways divide Bay Area residents in ~finance

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    That surprises me because I’ve always assumed San Francisco is more expensive. For example: Why Are Oakland Rents Suddenly So Much Cheaper Than SF’s? (KQED)

    That surprises me because I’ve always assumed San Francisco is more expensive. For example:

    Why Are Oakland Rents Suddenly So Much Cheaper Than SF’s? (KQED)

    Amid a ballooning rental housing market across the Bay Area, Oakland rents are mostly staying flat. Today, the median San Francisco rent for a one-bedroom home is about 70% higher than in Oakland. While Oakland often trails the city’s rental market, the gap is now far larger than in recent history.

    4 votes

  17. Comment on In Shasta County, the MAGA backlash has begun in ~society

    skybrian
    Link
    https://archive.is/2FC15 From the article: [...] [...] [...] [...]

    https://archive.is/2FC15

    From the article:

    Earlier this month, voters decisively ousted Crye and Curtis, and sent Supervisor Chris Kellstrom to the general election trailing a moderate challenger. Even if Kellstrom wins in November, the results of the June 2 primary tilt the county’s most powerful body back to the center-right — ending a five-year MAGA experiment and signaling trouble for President Donald Trump in one of California’s Trumpiest strongholds.

    [...]

    Shasta County, known for its homegrown militias, dueling secessionists, influential megachurch and enduring devotion to Trump-style politics, is having another bellwether moment.

    Well before the president hopscotched to his second term, MAGA political operators held up the north-state county as a template for what they could accomplish at the grassroots level. Bankrolled by special interests, a coalition of COVID lockdown opponents and 2020 election deniers elevated extremists to the Shasta County Board of Supervisors, then got to work on what they believed was an administrative deep state.

    The new board fired or chased out the county’s chief executive, public health officer, registrar of voters and a series of county counsels, replacing them with inexperienced or firebrand individuals who promised to find fraud and oppose California mandates. Scores of county employees left in the process.

    [...]

    In 2023, the Redding Rancheria, a Shasta County-based tribal government, was seeking a deal with the county to relocate and expand its Win-River Resort & Casino into a 1.1 million-square-foot gaming complex and nine-story hotel off of Interstate 5.

    In exchange for 30 years of county services, the Redding Rancheria offered a one-time payment of $3.3 million and $50,000 annually, far less than other intergovernmental arrangements between tribes and local governments. Shasta County’s sheriff, district attorney, outside counsel and other officials forcefully opposed the offer.

    But Crye pushed the board into a 4-1 vote to approve it. A lawsuit alleged the board improperly overruled the interests of the public. Last year, a judge sided with the plaintiff, ruling the deal “illegal.”

    Rickert, the only supervisor to oppose it, said Crye and then-Supervisor Patrick Henry Jones worked behind the scenes to scuttle a better deal by pushing out Eric Magrini, the assistant county CEO working on it. Magrini, a former sheriff, has filed his own lawsuit alleging that he was wrongfully terminated and that Crye stalked his wife.

    [...]

    Crye barely survived the ensuing recall attempt in March 2024, keeping his seat by 50 votes. He was aided by a $5,500 donation from the tribe, which has spent more than $20,000 on the supervisors who backed the agreement.

    [...]

    This month, Erin Resner, a Redding City Council member and Dutch Bros. franchisor who came within 90 votes of defeating Crye in 2022, bested the incumbent by more than 1,400, carrying 54% of the electorate. Crye pulled 38%.

    Resner raised less than Crye but did so through dozens more donations. And she spent most of it on getting her message out, that she’s a “sensible” conservative who wants to see Shasta County escape its dysfunctional reputation and work with surrounding counties on the homelessness and mental health crises afflicting the region.

    4 votes

  19. Comment on In the US abortion wars, new frontline is pills via telehealth in ~health

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: [...] [...] [...]

    From the article:

    Combined, mifepristone and misoprostol are considered the clinical "gold standard" for medication abortion. Misoprostol can be taken alone to induce an abortion, but some studies have suggested it's less effective, Foster warned patients. Plus, it can make the process longer and more painful, with more side effects, such as nausea and vomiting.

    [...]

    Two developments often get lost in the public's perception of the abortion wars.

    One is that there were nearly twice as many abortions in the U.S. in 2025, compared to 2021, the year before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in its momentous Dobbs decision in 2022.

    The numbers come from the Society of Family Planning's latest #WeCount report. By December 2025, 29% of abortions were through telehealth.

    The second is that, because the mailing of abortion pills has become so widespread in the post-Dobbs era, abortion opponents may simply be unable to stop it.

    [...]

    If mifepristone is restricted, many telehealth groups will immediately switch to using only misoprostol instead, they say.

    Misoprostol is approved by the FDA to treat ulcers, and is also widely used off-label to manage miscarriages, induce labor and end pregnancies.

    And while states could individually ban misoprostol, the FDA doesn't typically regulate how a drug is used off-label, according to David Cohen, a law professor at Drexel University and national expert on abortion law.

    "There would have to be some finding that it is not safe or effective for ulcer treatment, something that there's no argument anyone could possibly show," Cohen said.

    [...]

    Other organizations are already directing patients to mifepristone from outside the U.S., through groups such as Aid Access and online pharmacies in places like India.

    2 votes