skybrian's recent activity

  1. Comment on Jakarta’s remarkable urban transit transformation in ~transport

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: [...] [...] [...] [...]

    From the article:

    For many years, the first word most foreign visitors learned upon moving to Jakarta was macet, traffic jam.

    Traffic was so bad that transport experts warned in 2013 that if nothing was done, the city could achieve total gridlock, with every part of the city experiencing a traffic jam. In 2014, Jakarta was crowned the world’s most congested city by the Stop-Start Index and a year later was ranked far below other Asian cities on livability by the Economist Intelligence Unit.

    Ten years later, Jakarta has the world’s largest and one of the most used bus rapid transit (BRT) systems. The old, crowded diesel commuter trains, famous for allowing passengers to ride on the roofs, are now electrified, air conditioned, and run on regular schedules linking the suburbs to the city center. There are multiple subway and light rail lines crisscrossing the city. The transformation has been remarkable: in 2015, less than 20% of residents were within walking distance of transit. Now, nearly 90% of the city has access to BRT or trains.

    [...]

    Just over a year after Jokowi took office, Japan and Indonesia signed an agreement to provide a 77 billion Japanese yen (US$623 million) loan to build a mass rapid transit (MRT) line. While the groundwork had been laid over the previous decade, many credited Jokowi with brokering the agreement. The loan had an interest rate of just 0.1%. Japan would also provide technical expertise for the building process; Japanese train systems are built quickly and efficiently at low cost, and Indonesia hoped to learn from them. Having Japanese and central government oversight would also hopefully reduce corruption.

    It was a big risk. Indonesia only had a decades-old colonial era domestic railway network and little rail or railway manufacturing capability. There was no evidence that the country had the capability to implement such a large-scale project, and many expected it to either go over budget, or be heavily delayed. After all, strange pillars still dotted the Jakarta skyline from the last time the city had attempted a similar project. In 2003, construction started on a monorail project in Kuningan business district. That project never got beyond basic pre-construction, the funding either wasted or, as many Indonesians believe, stolen.

    This time, it would be different. Japan would play a role in basic design, construction, and introduction of transportation systems, including trains, signals, and gate systems, as well as their operation and maintenance.

    But Japanese contractors were insistent that, while they might build the railway, it was up to Indonesia to run it. Much of the technology would come from Japanese companies like Sumitomo and Nippon Sharyo, but construction, operations, and maintenance would all have to be done by Indonesian companies or the government. “In the future, it will be the local staff of Jakarta MRT who will have to manage this railroad. The Japanese way of doing things will not always be applicable here. For these reasons, we placed an importance on their autonomy when transferring the technology and operation know-how to the local staff,” says Mariko Utsunomiya from Japan International Consultants for Transportation.

    For the most part, the MRT was built underground or alongside existing large thoroughfares, minimizing the need for expensive land acquisition. When land was needed, the project used international standards to determine fair compensation and ensure fair process. Still, issues around some stations, particularly in South Jakarta, did result in the deadline being pushed back from 2018 to 2019.

    [...]

    While the MRT was still being built, the central government also approved a plan to have the state railway operator build two Light Rapid Transit (LRT) lines using domestic trains and technology. With knowledge gained from working with Japan, the Indonesian government would try to build its own infrastructure. The first line opened in 2023, slightly delayed by the COVID-19 pandemic but on budget.

    The success of the LRT and Phase 1 of the MRT has opened the door to more international investment. MRT Phase 2, also funded by Japan, is under construction and should open in late 2026.

    JICA and ADB are funding the MRT Phase 3 East-West Line, and a South Korea consortium, led by the Korea Overseas Infrastructure & Urban Development Corporation, Korea National Railway and Samsung, will build Phase 4 for 21 trillion Indonesian rupiah (US$1.9 billion). By 2045, if all goes to plan, there will be 10 LRT and 4 MRT lines with over 100 miles (160 km) of track added to the network.

    [...]

    Despite making remarkable improvements in the last decade, Jakarta’s public transit still isn’t enough. The city has recently overtaken Tokyo as the world’s largest city, with a metro population of over 41 million people, and it is still growing rapidly. It is projected to add another 10 million people in the next 25 years.

    [...]

    This has meant that despite the growth in transit ridership, there are still more cars in Greater Jakarta now than in 2019, when the MRT opened. Ride-hailing apps have also exploded in popularity; GoJek and Grab now provide on-demand motorcycle and rideshare to millions of Jakartans everyday. The sheer number of them means that fares are cheap — often just a little more than the train for a ride that requires no walking or transfers.

    This means one of the core drivers of the transit development push — air pollution — has actually worsened. Danny Djarum, an Air Quality Senior Research Lead at WRI Indonesia says that PM 2.5, the measurement of inhalable airborne particulate matter, is now eight to ten times higher than World Health Organization guidelines. “We’re still one of the top 5 most polluted cities in the world,” he said.

    3 votes

  3. Comment on US National Security Agency using Anthropic's Mythos despite blacklist in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    No, they didn't ask to be blacklisted. They asked that the DoD abide by their contract, which said that their tools could not be used in mass domestic surveillance or fully autonomous weapons. The...

    No, they didn't ask to be blacklisted. They asked that the DoD abide by their contract, which said that their tools could not be used in mass domestic surveillance or fully autonomous weapons.

    The DoD insisted on 'all lawful uses' which, since the Trump administration has its own interpretations about what laws mean, effectively means they could do whatever they want.

    When they couldn't come to terms, the US government claimed they were a supply risk and couldn't be used by any government agency, and Anthropic sued them because that's illegal retaliation. So far they've won in court, but it's still going through appeals.

    7 votes

  4. Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of April 27 in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    If you put it that way, yes, I don’t see any reason to count on them. There are upcoming court cases where it looks like there’s a decent chance that they won’t do what Trump wants, but they’re...

    If you put it that way, yes, I don’t see any reason to count on them. There are upcoming court cases where it looks like there’s a decent chance that they won’t do what Trump wants, but they’re still conservatives.

    2 votes

  5. Comment on The people do not yearn for automation in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    It’s also true that building, maintaining, and securing API’s requires effort. They often get low adoption, are targeted by attackers, and don’t directly make money. If there’s nobody at the...

    It’s also true that building, maintaining, and securing API’s requires effort. They often get low adoption, are targeted by attackers, and don’t directly make money. If there’s nobody at the company championing them then often they get retired.

    We’re seeing more interest in building API’s now because AI’s can use them, but sometimes this is speculative and the API’s that don’t get serious adoption might get dropped again.

  6. Comment on The people do not yearn for automation in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    I don’t think history says what you think it says. The color revolutions in post-Soviet regimes come to mind. Also, many nonviolent changes of government due to elections. In many cases, lone...

    There is no bloodless revolution

    I don’t think history says what you think it says. The color revolutions in post-Soviet regimes come to mind. Also, many nonviolent changes of government due to elections.

    In many cases, lone wolves attempting assassinations are neither necessary nor sufficient.

    That doesn’t mean nonviolent means always work. Most of the time they fail. I’m feeling optimistic about this year’s elections, though.

    4 votes

  7. Comment on India’s major airlines on ‘verge of closing down’ as high fuel costs sting in ~transport

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: [...] [...]

    From the article:

    India’s major airlines warned of a potential suspension in services unless the government lowered jet fuel prices.

    “The airline industry in India is under extreme stress and on the verge of closing down or of stopping its operations,” the Federation of Indian Airlines, representing carriers including IndiGo, Air India and SpiceJet, said in a letter to India’s Civil Aviation Ministry, seen by Bloomberg.

    They sought a return to pandemic-era cost caps on aviation turbine fuel and a reduction or deferment in taxes. The federation and the ministry did not immediately respond to queries sent after usual business hours.

    [...]

    Speculation is mounting that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration will raise fuel prices once voting in state elections ends on Wednesday. While the government at a briefing on Tuesday denied any plan to raise petrol prices, it declined to answer a similar question on aviation turbine fuel.

    India in early April had rolled back a steep increase in jet fuel prices for local flights within hours of pushing them to a record. Even so, carriers pay substantially more for fuel in the country than in Thailand, Dubai, Malaysia or Singapore because of high local taxes.

    Although Indian refiners produce more jet fuel than the country consumes, prices are still set on import-parity basis – as if fuel had been shipped in from the Persian Gulf, complete with notional freight charges, insurance and customs levies.

    [...]

    Airlines are also grappling with a weakening rupee, which inflates dollar-denominated costs such as aircraft leases and overseas airport charges. The government has responded with temporary relief measures, including a 25 per cent cap on monthly jet fuel price increases and a three-month reduction in landing and parking fees, and is considering loans backed by sovereign guarantees.

    2 votes

  9. Comment on We must keep age verification from killing anonymity online in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Yep, agreed. I don't think there are any 100% techno-fixes that don't have draconian side effects. A solution that changes what's "normal" for most kids (for things like social media access)...

    Yep, agreed. I don't think there are any 100% techno-fixes that don't have draconian side effects. A solution that changes what's "normal" for most kids (for things like social media access) should go a long way. We don't have any 100% solutions for tobacco or alcohol use either.

    1 vote

  10. Comment on New AI data center in Utah will generate and consume more than twice the amount of power the entire state uses in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Since it's off-grid, it won't affect anyone's electricity prices. Or at least not directly. It's surprising that they're not installing solar as well to reduce their fuel use, but it could be...

    Since it's off-grid, it won't affect anyone's electricity prices. Or at least not directly. It's surprising that they're not installing solar as well to reduce their fuel use, but it could be added later. It seems like it would be a very reasonable thing for the government to ask for as part of the permitting process.

    The headline number might never be reached, depending on what the market looks like after the first phase, but already having the permission to expand is valuable.

    12 votes

  11. Comment on We must keep age verification from killing anonymity online in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    It’s surprising that Germany allows that at all. In California, you can’t buy alcohol using self-checkout.

    It’s surprising that Germany allows that at all. In California, you can’t buy alcohol using self-checkout.

    1 vote

  12. Comment on We must keep age verification from killing anonymity online in ~tech

    skybrian
    (edited )
    Link
    Child-locked devices exist and it’s up to parents not to give their kids an unlocked device. The industry could help by making child-locked devices easier to set up and by making sure they don’t...

    Child-locked devices exist and it’s up to parents not to give their kids an unlocked device. The industry could help by making child-locked devices easier to set up and by making sure they don’t sell unlocked devices to kids. If you do that, no age-verification of people is necessary except at checkout when buying a device.

    It should also be trivial to set your website to adult-only. Set a config option and it gets added to a list that’s consulted by child-locked devices. (And it shouldn’t be the same setting that causes Google to think it's a porn website.)

    38 votes

  13. Comment on USA to mandate surveillance tech for new cars also determing fitness to drive by 2027 in ~transport

    skybrian
    Link
    I’m skeptical about this article which is why I did a search and found the other one.

    I’m skeptical about this article which is why I did a search and found the other one.

    4 votes

  14. Comment on NHTSA tells US Congress: advanced impaired driving detection tech isn't ready in ~transport

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Maybe think a little more about the incentives that creates…

    Maybe think a little more about the incentives that creates…

    10 votes

  15. Comment on Russia revives retired aircraft amid airline fleet crisis in ~transport

    skybrian
    Link
    This rather sketchy website claims that civilian aircraft are used for military purposes too: Russia’s Shadow Airlift: How the Kremlin Weaponised Commercial Aviation ...

    This rather sketchy website claims that civilian aircraft are used for military purposes too:

    Russia’s Shadow Airlift: How the Kremlin Weaponised Commercial Aviation

    Our previous “Maintained to Fail” investigation into Aviaremont JSC documented how Russia’s military aviation maintenance backbone is collapsing due to sanctions and absent spare parts. With the ever growing number of military aircraft requiring repairs and overhaul facilities effectively insolvent, the Russian Aerospace Forces are experiencing a genuine airlift capacity crisis – not just a maintenance inconvenience. That crisis leaves a gap. Russia’s military needs to move troops, weapons, and materiel. Its own aircraft increasingly cannot. So it is turning to the next most available option: civilian aviation.

    ...

    Why does the Ministry of Defence maintain aircraft on the civilian registry when it already commands a Military Transport Aviation fleet of roughly 400 to 450 dedicated military airframes? Aside from the poor operational readiness of the official fleet, the main strategic hurdle is international access. While Russian military aircraft face no procedural or logistical barriers landing at domestic civilian or joint-use airports within Russia, crossing sovereign borders is an entirely different matter. Under international aviation law, true military aircraft require complex, easily trackable diplomatic clearances to enter foreign airspace and are routinely barred from international commercial hubs. By placing a portion of its fleet on the civil registry and painting them in standard commercial liveries, the Ministry of Defence exploits civil aviation protocols. This allows them to bypass diplomatic red tape and fly into crucial transit nodes like the UAE, Turkey, or various African states under the guise of ‘civilian charter flights’.

    3 votes

  16. Comment on Russia revives retired aircraft amid airline fleet crisis in ~transport

    skybrian
    Link
    Also: Flying on borrowed parts: Sanctions deepen Russia’s aviation crisis ...

    Also: Flying on borrowed parts: Sanctions deepen Russia’s aviation crisis

    According to Goble, the problem is no longer limited to procurement. It is now feeding directly into safety concerns and the wider functioning of the Russian economy.

    “I don't think there are very many planes in the air today in Russia that don't have parts taken from another plane that isn't flying anymore,” he said. While he noted that the available evidence is largely anecdotal, he said analysts of the sector have pointed consistently to the same pattern.

    ...

    Goble said the consequences could be especially severe in a country as vast as Russia, where many regions remain poorly connected by rail or road.

    “You simply can't drive from one part of the country to another. You can't take a train because there are no tracks,” he said, arguing that air travel is not a luxury in much of Russia but a basic link holding together remote regions and local economies.

    That is why, he said, the aviation crunch should be seen not as a narrow sectoral setback but as a wider strategic problem. Canceled flights, fewer connections and rising safety concerns could all weigh on mobility, logistics and state control in far-flung parts of the country.

    12 votes

  17. Comment on Russia revives retired aircraft amid airline fleet crisis in ~transport

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: [...] [...] [...]

    From the article:

    [In January], Russia’s Izvestia news outlet reported that Russia plans to reactivate retired Soviet-design aircraft in 2026. These include Tu-204-214s, an An-148, Il-96s, and more Boeing 747-400s.

    [...]

    In total, Russia has been refurbishing 12 retired airliners, including nine Tu-204-214s, one An-148, and two Il-96s. These aircraft are up to 30 years old, and work has been ongoing since 2022.

    [...]

    The two widebody, quad-engined Ilyushin Il-96s are particularly interesting. Cuba’s Cubana de Aviación is the only airline to use them in commercial passenger service. In Russia, they are exclusively used by the Russian government and for cargo transportation.

    Russia is also rushing to Rusify the production of its commercial aircraft. While progress is being made, none have been delivered by the end of 2025, and only two flagship Yakovlev MC-21 airliners are expected to be delivered in 2026.

    [...]

    In 2025, Russia saw a slight decline in passenger traffic, according to Izvestia. It seems more than a ‘slight decline’ with Kommersant reporting it is, “a 20% year-on-year decline in passenger traffic for Russian airlines.”

    This was attributed to a reduction in Russia’s fleet size. By 2030, 230 Russian-made and 109 foreign-made aircraft are expected to retire across Russia.

    Currently, Russian airlines are operating 100% of their serviceable fleet. However, the aircraft are being decommissioned at a rate of 2-3% annually with no new replacements since 2022. This means that foreign carriers are taking more and more of the long-haul Russian tourist market.

    5 votes

  19. Comment on Exporters without borders: why you should start a company instead of working in aid in ~finance

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    The line between for-profit and non-profit organizations can sometimes be blurry because for-profit companies can operate at a loss for a while and non-profits still need to worry about budgets...

    The line between for-profit and non-profit organizations can sometimes be blurry because for-profit companies can operate at a loss for a while and non-profits still need to worry about budgets and where the money is coming from. There are incentives to cut costs to improve efficiency at whatever they're doing. Formally non-profit companies can still benefit some stakeholders - for example, paying managers a high salary.

    When evaluating what Wasoko did, we don't know what their operating margin was and whether they were profitable or losing money in each market. We can guess that they were places that they pulled out of because they were losing money there.

    And then the issue is that even if we figured that out, operating margins aren't enough to decide whether we approve of what they did. It doesn't tell us how much the people they served benefited, or what would have happened instead if they weren't there.

    1 vote

  20. Comment on Exporters without borders: why you should start a company instead of working in aid in ~finance

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    I’ll point out that governments are also not required to serve people outside their jurisdiction. There are public school districts for rich communities that poor people have a hard time getting...

    I’ll point out that governments are also not required to serve people outside their jurisdiction. There are public school districts for rich communities that poor people have a hard time getting into. Selection effects can make their numbers go up, too.

    2 votes