skybrian's recent activity
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Comment on OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s home targeted with molotov cocktail in ~tech
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Comment on The tech billionaires who want to pave over the universe: Adam Becker’s More Everything Forever in ~society
skybrian Link ParentYes, but I think that needs to be judged on a case-by-case basis. Science fiction and fantasy writers are in a similar position. For example, I don't think Neal Stephenson is responsible because...Yes, but I think that needs to be judged on a case-by-case basis. Science fiction and fantasy writers are in a similar position. For example, I don't think Neal Stephenson is responsible because Zuckerberg thought building a metaverse would be cool. If you write a story and it "goes viral," so to speak, then lots of people will read it and you have no control over what powerful people do with your ideas. You just do the best you can under the circumstances.
Influential charities are in a tricky position: when some billionaire offers you huge amount of money for what you believe is a worthy cause, should you take the money? Arguably that money is better off in your hands than whatever else they might have done with it, but the downside is that you're now associated with someone who might turn out to be Bankman-Fried. Even if there are formally no strings attached, there is the reputational hit.
Also, the trouble with judging on a case-by-case basis is that then you have to.investigate each case, and that results in doing a lot of homework. Who has the time? If you're lucky then a trustworthy journalist will do it for you. But not every writer is trustworthy on every subject.
And so we often go by reputation and rumor, copying our homework from other people. I think that often results in injustice.
And that's why I often go with "I'm out of touch and don't know anything about it" as a default opinion.
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Comment on The tech billionaires who want to pave over the universe: Adam Becker’s More Everything Forever in ~society
skybrian Link ParentWell, I agree that there’s some crazy stuff out there. You know how philosophers will sometimes come up with edgy thought experiments like trolley problems or radical skepticism? There are quite a...Well, I agree that there’s some crazy stuff out there.
You know how philosophers will sometimes come up with edgy thought experiments like trolley problems or radical skepticism? There are quite a lot of philosophical discussions happening in LessWrong and other forums.
I don’t usually consider this a problem, any more than taking a philosophy course in college or college freshman having late night philosophical discussions is a problem. Often it’s “insight porn” that has no practical consequences.
But it’s true that it could be a problem when someone takes it too seriously. Ideas can be influential.
Peter Singer is an example of a notorious philosopher who has come up with influential ideas both good and bad. He has argued for vegetarianism and the moral imperative of donating to the poor, both of which are influential in EA circles. He also infamously argued that killing severely developmentally deformed babies is okay, which is the opposite of influential in that basically nobody agrees.
And it’s worth pointing out that William McAskill is also a philosopher.
It seems like philosophers and would-be philosophers have a lot to answer for since sometimes their ideas are bad, but that putting an idea out there is not the same as taking it seriously and deciding to act on it, and that the community shouldn’t need to answer for every bad idea that someone posts. (Criticism of the actual arguments is of course fine.)
But we should pay attention to what some people actually do. For example, there have been some dangerous cults. It’s unclear what can be done to prevent that.
I do think the very long term science fictional thinking that you see sometimes is an unfortunate distraction. For example, advocating for colonizing Mars as a “backup” for Earth. Why should I care about people on Mars if everyone dies on Earth? That’s a catastrophe either way. Similarly for far-future potential people that we will never meet. They aren’t real and their imagined fate should carry very little weight.
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Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of April 6 in ~society
skybrian Link ParentIt’s good that there are no images here. I do share a lot of news articles but I try to limit it to major events and “politician says something outrageous” doesn’t qualify.It’s good that there are no images here. I do share a lot of news articles but I try to limit it to major events and “politician says something outrageous” doesn’t qualify.
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Comment on The tech billionaires who want to pave over the universe: Adam Becker’s More Everything Forever in ~society
skybrian Link ParentI don’t see how that has anything to do with young people deciding what sort of career to pursue, which is what the “earn to give” stuff is about. If someone decides that it’s okay to become a...I don’t see how that has anything to do with young people deciding what sort of career to pursue, which is what the “earn to give” stuff is about. If someone decides that it’s okay to become a software engineer and they’ll try to do good by giving more to charity, that doesn’t make them responsible for how many data centers are built. (I suppose it could happen, but it’s a rather unlikely career trajectory.)
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Comment on The tech billionaires who want to pave over the universe: Adam Becker’s More Everything Forever in ~society
skybrian LinkThis is someone who is clearly willing to make shit up about people they dislike. I doubt they could find even one post where someone in EA advocates for making money by going into weapons...The seemingly sensible goal sometimes encompassed the belief that it’s morally better to go into a lucrative-but-harmful field (e.g., weapons dealing) where you can contribute more than a directly helpful one that pays poorly.
This is someone who is clearly willing to make shit up about people they dislike. I doubt they could find even one post where someone in EA advocates for making money by going into weapons dealing.
Don't get your news from people like that.
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Comment on US states are learning the wrong lesson from the ‘Mississippi [reading level] miracle’ (gifted link) in ~society
skybrian Link ParentI think deBoer is right that local reporting would be helpful for understanding what actually happened in Mississippi. He isn't doing the digging himself, though? He's clearly done a lot of...I think deBoer is right that local reporting would be helpful for understanding what actually happened in Mississippi. He isn't doing the digging himself, though?
He's clearly done a lot of reading and is much more knowledgeable than I am about education, but I think this adds up to having a skeptical prior. Comparisons to what happened elsewhere aren't a substitute for doing a new investigation in each situation to see what happened and if anything can be learned from it.
I'm reminded of the anecdote about the economists who miss the $20 on the sidewalk because according to theory, someone should have picked it up already.
And that's not journalism. A lot of news stories are similar, but there are always new situations for journalists to report on.
That said, nobody is required to the homework, and I'm not going to do it either. I just keep an eye out for reporting by someone who did.
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Comment on Prototyping with LLMs in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentOn my personal link-sharing website, the bot and I have written 80 design docs so far. It works fairly well, but doesn't keep me from over-engineering things. :) Before that I would only write...On my personal link-sharing website, the bot and I have written 80 design docs so far. It works fairly well, but doesn't keep me from over-engineering things. :)
Before that I would only write design docs at work, not for my hobby projects.
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Comment on US states are learning the wrong lesson from the ‘Mississippi [reading level] miracle’ (gifted link) in ~society
skybrian Link ParentI do think it's plausible that those reforms were important, but it's not obvious to me how we would know if they worked. For example, how many underperforming schools did Mississippi actually...I do think it's plausible that those reforms were important, but it's not obvious to me how we would know if they worked.
For example, how many underperforming schools did Mississippi actually take over and did this actually help? There's no way someone who hadn't already investigated would know that. How would they know?
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Comment on US states are learning the wrong lesson from the ‘Mississippi [reading level] miracle’ (gifted link) in ~society
skybrian LinkIt sounds like Mississippi did a bunch of different things and other states are trying some of them with decidedly mixed results. I don't think it tells us which of their reforms made the most...It sounds like Mississippi did a bunch of different things and other states are trying some of them with decidedly mixed results. I don't think it tells us which of their reforms made the most difference, though?
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Comment on Prototyping with LLMs in ~tech
skybrian LinkThat's quite the bible quote. I had to look it up to see if it was real :) It's a bit unclear what they mean by "sketch," though. Literally draw a picture?That's quite the bible quote. I had to look it up to see if it was real :)
It's a bit unclear what they mean by "sketch," though. Literally draw a picture?
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Comment on Anthropic announces deal with Google, Broadcom, says revenue has tripled in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentYes, they're company-provided numbers that shouldn't be trusted as much as audited financial statements. But this isn't itself evidence that they're lying.Yes, they're company-provided numbers that shouldn't be trusted as much as audited financial statements. But this isn't itself evidence that they're lying.
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Comment on Anthropic announces deal with Google, Broadcom, says revenue has tripled in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentOkay but just because Enron did it doesn't mean Anthropic is doing it.Okay but just because Enron did it doesn't mean Anthropic is doing it.
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Comment on Anthropic announces deal with Google, Broadcom, says revenue has tripled in ~finance
skybrian (edited )Link ParentAnnualized revenue does not mean they earned that much (since it hasn't been a year), so the big numbers don't quite mean what they seem. We are also missing the financial statements that would be...Annualized revenue does not mean they earned that much (since it hasn't been a year), so the big numbers don't quite mean what they seem. We are also missing the financial statements that would be available for a public company, so we have to go by these selective disclosures. Someone put them in a graph.
But as an indication of a trend they do seem kind of meaningful? This is indicating that revenue is growing rapidly. Divide by twelve if you'd rather see monthly revenue.
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Comment on Anthropic announces deal with Google, Broadcom, says revenue has tripled in ~finance
skybrian LinkThis is quite the hockey stick chart: https://x.com/albrgr/status/2041288324464451617/photo/1This is quite the hockey stick chart: https://x.com/albrgr/status/2041288324464451617/photo/1
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Comment on Anthropic announces deal with Google, Broadcom, says revenue has tripled in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentIt's mostly business customers. I think it has more to with Claude having the reputation of being the best for writing code.It's mostly business customers. I think it has more to with Claude having the reputation of being the best for writing code.
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Comment on US and Iran agree to provisional ceasefire with Tehran saying it will reopen Strait of Hormuz in ~society
skybrian Link ParentIt's been less than 24 hours. I don't think that's enough time to see if shipping will increase? It sure looks like Iran is willing to do a two-week ceasefire or maybe more, and the rest of the...It's been less than 24 hours. I don't think that's enough time to see if shipping will increase?
It sure looks like Iran is willing to do a two-week ceasefire or maybe more, and the rest of the world would be happier if the Israel agreed to stop bombing Lebanon for a bit.
It seems unlikely that the US and Iran will agree with anything more substantial than a ceasefire (they are far apart), but once it's in place, it can be extended, and in the meantime it would prevent a lot of economic suffering if shipping increased, even with restrictions.
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Comment on How China built its vast natural gas stockpile in ~society
skybrian Link ParentI don't think anyone is confused about where natural gas comes from. Also, methane is cleaner than coal or oil. For example, CO2 emissions are 50% less than coal and 25–30% less than gasoline....I don't think anyone is confused about where natural gas comes from.
Also, methane is cleaner than coal or oil. For example, CO2 emissions are 50% less than coal and 25–30% less than gasoline. Methane is a gas because there are fewer carbon atoms.
It's still a fossil fuel, but transitioning from coal to natural gas does help.
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Comment on Anthropic announces deal with Google, Broadcom, says revenue has tripled in ~finance
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...]From the article:
Anthropic also said Monday that its revenue run rate has now crossed $30 billion on an annualized basis — more than three times the roughly $9 billion figure it recorded at the end of 2025. Enterprise traction has also accelerated: The number of clients committing at least $1 million a year has surpassed 1,000, a threshold Anthropic said is twice what it was reporting around the time of its Series G announcement in February.
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Anthropic said the majority of the new infrastructure will be built on U.S. soil, framing the commitment as a continuation of a pledge made last year to direct $50 billion toward domestic computing capacity. According to Monday's securities filing, Broadcom flagged that Anthropic's ability to draw on the additional compute hinges on its ongoing commercial performance, and noted that discussions with outside operational and financial partners are underway to support the rollout.
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Anthropic announces deal with Google, Broadcom, says revenue has tripled
31 votes
Growing food more efficiently can certainly result in jobs being lost in agriculture. Who do you think did the work before farmers had giant machines to do it? Considering that at one time nearly all people were peasant farmers, it's hard to see how AI could get rid of more jobs than the Industrial Revolution.
A similar argument could be made for basically everything we buy.
Of course, often people end up working different jobs and that's usually considered progress.
Using AI to automate tasks doesn't seem all that different in kind. It might be different because it happens a lot faster. It still seems too soon to say if that's really going to happen, but it has a lot of people worried. What would the new jobs be? Who would be qualified to do them?