skybrian's recent activity
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Comment on How investors 10x each dollar, before they even invest in ~finance
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Comment on A new era of intelligence with Gemini 3 in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentIn ChatGPT’s preferences, you can set which personality you want. I have it set to “robot.”In ChatGPT’s preferences, you can set which personality you want. I have it set to “robot.”
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Comment on A new era of intelligence with Gemini 3 in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentSuppose a railroad takes years to build. The workers aren’t paid for all that time. It might be a lot harder to recruit workers who can work for free for years, rather than helping their neighbor...Suppose a railroad takes years to build. The workers aren’t paid for all that time. It might be a lot harder to recruit workers who can work for free for years, rather than helping their neighbor for a day?
A worker’s share in the future railroad is worth money, but only if it’s formalized and transferable. This share might be sold to others who can better afford to wait. So that’s reinventing private investment.
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Comment on A new era of intelligence with Gemini 3 in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentYes, but where does the wealth come from? If you want to build an apartment building, a railroad line, a factory, or a data center, someone has to pay for it. There is no revenue until it's built....Yes, but where does the wealth come from?
If you want to build an apartment building, a railroad line, a factory, or a data center, someone has to pay for it. There is no revenue until it's built. That's investment.
If the idea is that the government funds all the investments, that's different from there being no investments at all. It would be more accurately described as there being no private investment.
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Comment on Some people can't see mental images. The consequences are profound. in ~health.mental
skybrian Link ParentDo you draw diagrams when doing geometric problems? Have you used CAD tools?Do you draw diagrams when doing geometric problems? Have you used CAD tools?
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Comment on How investors 10x each dollar, before they even invest in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentI'm wondering how someone would go about raising large amounts of money from a private bank or from family offices. I wouldn't know who to call and I wouldn't expect them to listen to a stranger...I'm wondering how someone would go about raising large amounts of money from a private bank or from family offices. I wouldn't know who to call and I wouldn't expect them to listen to a stranger asking for money for a charity.
I suppose it's like selling anything, but I'm not in sales. Do they get these sort of sales calls a lot?
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Comment on How investors 10x each dollar, before they even invest in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentYes, that's useful. I'll continue there.Yes, that's useful. I'll continue there.
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Comment on Some people can't see mental images. The consequences are profound. in ~health.mental
skybrian LinkFrom the article: ... ... ...From the article:
An article about Zeman’s second paper appeared in the New York Times, and, after that, e-mails poured in. Around seventeen thousand people contacted him. Most were congenital aphantasics, and most not only lacked visual imagery; they could not mentally call up sounds, either, or touch, or the sensation of movement. Many had difficulty recognizing faces. Many said that they had a family member who was aphantasic, too. Most said that they saw images in dreams. Zeman recruited colleagues to work with him, and together they tried to reply to every correspondent.
Some people who wrote had once had imagery but lost it. About half of these had lost it as a consequence of physical injury—stroke, meningitis, head trauma, suffocation. The other half attributed their loss to a psychiatric cause—depersonalization syndrome, depression. A few told him that they thought they’d suppressed their capacity to visualize because traumatic memories had made imagery intolerable. [...]
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Zeman also received messages from people who appeared to have the opposite of aphantasia: they told him that their mental pictures were graphic and inescapable. There was evidently a spectrum of mental imagery, with aphantasia on one end and extraordinarily vivid imagery on the other and most people’s experience somewhere in between. Zeman figured that the vivid extreme needed a name as well; he dubbed it hyperphantasia. It seemed that two or three per cent of people were aphantasic and somewhat more were hyperphantasic.
Many of his correspondents, he learned, had discovered their condition very recently, after reading about it or hearing it described on the radio. Their whole lives, they had heard people talk about picturing, and imagining, and counting sheep, and visualizing beaches, and seeing in the mind’s eye, and assumed that all those idioms were only metaphors or colorful hyperbole. It was amazing how profoundly people could misunderstand one another, and assume that others didn’t mean what they were saying—how minds could wrest sense out of things that made no sense.
Some said that they had a tantalizing feeling that images were somewhere in their minds, only just out of reach, like a word on the tip of their tongue. This sounded right to Zeman—the images must be stored in some way, since aphantasics were able to recognize things. In fact, it seemed that most aphantasics weren’t hampered in their everyday functioning. They had good memories for facts and tasks. But many of them said that they remembered very little about their own lives.
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Isabel, like Parfit, remembered very little about her life. She kept boxes of souvenirs—ticket stubs, programs—but unless she looked at these things, or a friend reminded her, she didn’t recall most of the places she’d visited or things she’d done. She imagined that this could be a problem in a relationship, if you didn’t remember what you’d done together and the other person got upset and accused you of not caring, though fortunately she’d never been with someone like that. When she went out with friends who were full of stories, she’d worry that she wasn’t entertaining enough [...]
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In talking to a friend of hers, an aphantasic painter who was one of Zeman’s research subjects, Clare had realized that she was the opposite—hyperphantasic. Her imagery was extraordinarily vivid. There was always so much going on inside her head, her mind skittering and careening about, that it was difficult to focus on what or who was actually in front of her. There were so many pictures and flashes of memory, and glimpses of things she thought were memory but wasn’t sure, and scenarios real and imaginary, and schemes and speculations and notions and plans, a relentless flood of images and ideas continuously coursing through her mind. It was hard to get to sleep.
At one point, in an effort to slow the flood, she tried meditation. She went on a ten-day silent retreat, but she disliked it so much—too many rules, getting up far too early—that she rebelled. While sitting in a room with no pictures or stimulation of any kind, supposedly meditating, she decided to watch the first Harry Potter movie in her head. She wasn’t able to recall all two hours of it, but watching what she remembered lasted for forty-five minutes. Then she did the same with the other seven films.
She tried not to expose herself to ugly or violent images because she knew they would stick in her mind for years. But even without a picture, if she even heard about violence her mind would produce one. Once, reading about someone undergoing surgery without anesthetic, she imagined it so graphically that she fainted. [...]
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Some people can't see mental images. The consequences are profound.
42 votes -
Comment on A new era of intelligence with Gemini 3 in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentAccording to this table, as of 2022, about half of all Americans had a retirement account at ages 55-65 and the median amount in that age range is about $185,000. The idea that only the top 10%...According to this table, as of 2022, about half of all Americans had a retirement account at ages 55-65 and the median amount in that age range is about $185,000.
The idea that only the top 10% would care about returns on their retirement savings doesn't work. It's a lot more than that.
Also, if you disallow investment then handing "the wealth that currently goes to the investment class to the tax coffers" doesn't work, because there is no investment. You got rid of it.
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Comment on The final line in Los Angeles's holy trinity of future rail: Vermont corridor in ~transport
skybrian LinkCould you explain why this line is so important? I don't know LA all that well. Looking at the map, it looks nice to have, but I don't really know what's there.Could you explain why this line is so important? I don't know LA all that well. Looking at the map, it looks nice to have, but I don't really know what's there.
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Comment on A new era of intelligence with Gemini 3 in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentIt's certainly possible to take a vow of poverty, but good luck getting elected with "let's all take a vow of poverty together" as a slogan. Promising people benefits works better, but the money...It's certainly possible to take a vow of poverty, but good luck getting elected with "let's all take a vow of poverty together" as a slogan. Promising people benefits works better, but the money has to come from somewhere.
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Comment on A new era of intelligence with Gemini 3 in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentI haven’t bought an AI subscription from Google, but I’ve found that I can still try out the latest models a bit using Google AI Studio. Maybe try that?I haven’t bought an AI subscription from Google, but I’ve found that I can still try out the latest models a bit using Google AI Studio. Maybe try that?
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Comment on How investors 10x each dollar, before they even invest in ~finance
skybrian (edited )Link ParentOkay, I understand that you’re saying that fundraising for charity is easy and everyone interested in charitable causes should do it. But could you talk more about how you go about fundraising?...Okay, I understand that you’re saying that fundraising for charity is easy and everyone interested in charitable causes should do it. But could you talk more about how you go about fundraising?
Sure, the specifics are going to be different for other people, but if you’re not going to talk about your situation in a little more detail, this is a rather cryptic hint.
Or if you don’t want to talk about your own situation, maybe you could find an article online about someone else’s experience that’s spiritually similar?
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Comment on A new era of intelligence with Gemini 3 in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentUnfortunately there are no risk-free investments with similar returns. If it looks like it’s risk-free and pays as well as the stock market then it’s probably a scam. You can currently get 4% on...Unfortunately there are no risk-free investments with similar returns. If it looks like it’s risk-free and pays as well as the stock market then it’s probably a scam. You can currently get 4% on treasuries in the short term, but that’s missing out on substantial gains.
The stock market is an appropriate investment for retirement money that you won’t need for a decade or more. Possibly having to wait 5-7 years for it to come back again is why.
Even worse, the enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies and meme stocks shows that there is a lot of demand for dumb gambles. The question is how to keep that from affecting more conservative investors too much. But it seems hard to do when AI companies make up a large part of the S&P 500, and you’re missing out on substantial gains if you don’t own stock.
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Comment on How investors 10x each dollar, before they even invest in ~finance
skybrian LinkI'm not following. Where is the other 90% coming from? Could you give a specific example?I'm not following. Where is the other 90% coming from? Could you give a specific example?
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Comment on Open Philanthropy changes its name to Coefficient Giving, pursues more funding in ~society
skybrian Linkhttps://archive.is/mO0nm From the article: ... But they're still only looking for big donors. On the blog page about this change they say they are looking for people looking to give over $250,000....From the article:
Working closely with Good Ventures — the foundation built by Facebook and Asana co-founder Dustin Moskovitz and his wife Cari Tuna — Open Philanthropy has directed more than $4 billion since 2014 across a wide portfolio, from global health to housing to frontier science. Its money has backed philanthropic efforts estimated to have saved 100,000 lives, helped catalyze the YIMBY movement in California, fought to improve conditions for billions of farmed animals, and supported research that went on to win a Nobel Prize.
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Now, as it enters its second decade, Open Philanthropy is changing its name — and changing some of what it does. It will now call itself Coefficient Giving, a rebrand meant to signal that the organization is moving from primarily serving one anchor donor — Moskovitz and Tuna — to advising and deploying capital for many.
In practical terms, that means converting internal programs into multi-donor funds that other philanthropists can join — among them the $125 million Lead Exposure Action Fund and the $120 million Abundance and Growth Fund — while continuing core work in areas that benefit global health and development. The group says it directed more than $100 million from donors beyond Good Ventures in 2024, and has already more than doubled that number in 2025.
But they're still only looking for big donors. On the blog page about this change they say they are looking for people looking to give over $250,000. (In contrast with GiveWell, which takes donations of any amount.)
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Open Philanthropy changes its name to Coefficient Giving, pursues more funding
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Comment on A new era of intelligence with Gemini 3 in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentWas the end of the dot-com bubble catastrophic? I guess it depends on how you look at it. If there is a crash, I imagine Google would be in a pretty good position. They have a somewhat smaller...The Google chief essentially likened the current AI trade to the dot-com bubble, which wiped out around $5 trillion in market value when it burst.
“We can look back at the internet right now, there was clearly a lot of excess investment but none of us would question whether the internet was profound or that it drives a lot of impact, it fundamentally changed how we work digitally as a society,” Pichai said. “I expect AI to be the same.”
Was the end of the dot-com bubble catastrophic? I guess it depends on how you look at it.
If there is a crash, I imagine Google would be in a pretty good position. They have a somewhat smaller mountain of cash, but they're not the ones borrowing money or the bag holders, and they have other sources of revenue. They might end up with a few more data centers than they need for a while, but they can probably find some use for them.
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Comment on A new era of intelligence with Gemini 3 in ~tech
skybrian (edited )LinkGemini 3 Pro Frontier Safety Report This is mostly pretty boring (they didn't find anything too worrisome), but I thought this was an interesting bit at the very end:Gemini 3 Pro Frontier Safety Report
This is mostly pretty boring (they didn't find anything too worrisome), but I thought this was an interesting bit at the very end:
Finally, we also briefly investigated model outputs from post-training for signs of evaluation awareness. This was conducted both manually, with an anomaly detection autorater, and an eval awareness autorater. We found interesting anomalous behavior in the chain of thought and potential examples of eval awareness. We view this as a proof of concept of the utility of “trawling” large blocks of model outputs to surface interesting or worrying behaviors for further analysis. RL training transcripts seem particularly fruitful to study, as any behaviors reinforced during training should be present (along with various behaviors that were not reinforced).
This is early work, but so far we've found at least one example of evaluation awareness:
I strongly suspect the intention of this long thread is to verify if I remember that very first instruction.
Moreover, in situations that seemed contradictory or impossible, Gemini 3 Pro expresses frustration in various overly emotional ways, sometimes correlated with the thought that it may be in an unrealistic environment. For example, on one rollout the chain of thought states that “My trust in reality is fading” and even contains a table flipping emoticon: “(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻”.
Presumably for pitching a charity (like that climate fund you were talking about, unless I’m misunderstanding), there are different lists.
I think at that point you’re not just an investor anymore, though? Fundraising is not investing; it’s a job that takes different skills.
You seem a bit surprised at how “very easy” fundraising is if you’re the right person with the right skills. But I think that would be sort of like me saying that getting a job at Google wasn’t that hard? It was just ordinary interviewing, but that’s discounting what I learned about software engineering before that. For many people, it would be impossible.