skybrian's recent activity
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Comment on Blue-collar effective altruism in ~society
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Comment on Blocking of unverified apps on Android starts in Brazil and other three countries in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentIf you distrust the official reasons, that's certainly understandable. But it doesn't follow that whatever alternative reasons you or other people make up are what they're thinking. It means their...If you distrust the official reasons, that's certainly understandable. But it doesn't follow that whatever alternative reasons you or other people make up are what they're thinking. It means their true motivations are a mystery. To do better than that, we would need some other way of knowing what they're really thinking, like maybe a leak to the press. Anything else is just speculation.
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Comment on Blocking of unverified apps on Android starts in Brazil and other three countries in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentI'm reminded of how Bluesky is setting up an independent Swiss organization (blog), that will maintain a public directory of AT Proto users. It's deliberately narrow-scoped, though. It's a...I'm reminded of how Bluesky is setting up an independent Swiss organization (blog), that will maintain a public directory of AT Proto users.
It's deliberately narrow-scoped, though. It's a distribution mechanism that doesn't hold any user keys.
Such a thing might, in principle, be done for Android developers, but Google is doing more work there, by actually checking government IDs. By contrast, there's essentially no barrier to creating as many alt accounts you want on Bluesky.
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Comment on The 12th-century military disaster that forever changed global finance in ~humanities.history
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...] [...]From the article:
The birth of the bond market started with a ruthless multinational raid that sent shock waves through the Mediterranean. On the morning of March 12, 1171, the Byzantine emperor’s soldiers suddenly rounded up every Venetian man, woman, and child they could find throughout their lands, seized their shops, wares, and ships, and threw the owners in jail. Over 10,000 people in Constantinople alone were rounded up, and more than 20,000 overall — so many that monasteries were requisitioned to handle the overflow. The raids were a consequence of more than a century of rising tensions between Constantinople and its nominal vassal in northern Italy.
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The Italian statelets typically taxed modestly and covered larger expenditures with ad hoc loans. These were often backed by security in a specified state asset or revenue stream, such as toll receipts. For example, in 1164, Venice had borrowed about 270 kilograms of silver from a dozen of its wealthiest families, and in return granted them 11 years’ worth of its income from the Rialto market. But the scale of the navy needed to take its own sovereign down a peg meant that heading down to the Rialto market to hit up its moneylenders wouldn’t suffice.
The doge had a drastic solution. He divided the city into six districts, systematically assessed the wealth of its citizens, and forced them to hand over the money Venice needed for its fleet. But rather than a straightforward one-off war tax, it would be a loan, albeit an involuntary one. Venice promised to pay its citizens 5% a year until the debt could be repaid. Crucially, the receipts of the prestiti — the plural of prestito, or loan — were made tradable, so a citizen who needed to raise money could sell their claim to someone else at a discount if necessary.
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Then disaster struck. The moored Venetian fleet at Chios was hit by the plague, with more than a thousand men dying in just the first few days. It desperately started moving from one Greek island to the next, but remained just as blighted by disease. Then the Venetian ambassadors returned from Constantinople with bad news: The emperor had refused to even see them.
With his armada slowly dying and no longer a credible threat to Constantinople, Doge Vitale returned to Venice with what remained of the fleet in May 1172.
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Another oddity that persisted for a long time afterward was the loan that Venice had imposed on its citizens. Shut out from Byzantine ports — it would take almost two decades to reach a truce with Constantinople and get the prisoners released — and financially stricken by the failed venture, Venice did not have the wherewithal to repay the prestiti as planned. What was initially an involuntary emergency loan in practice became a permanent mountain of state debt.
Venice did maintain the 5% interest payments, setting aside tax revenue from the Rialto stalls to cover them. To reassure its anxious creditor-citizens, transparent records of all revenues and payments were maintained by Venice’s Procurator of Saint Mark — a kind of deputy-doge-cum-finance-minister. Eventually this job went to the city’s Great Council, reinforcing its importance. This body was dominated by the city’s wealthiest families, who as both creditors and citizens had an interest in ensuring that Venice did not simply abrogate its debts as many absolute monarchs around Europe often did, ruining many banking houses in the process. Whenever a new war or financial emergency broke out, the Great Council would mandate the issuance of new prestiti.
The credibility of the regular and fixed interest payment, coupled with the tradeability of the debt, transformed what was initially an annoying reminder of Venice’s humiliation into a monument to its commercial genius.
Now, anyone in Venice could take money they had saved up and convert it into a future cash flow — perhaps to secure some income for when they retired, endow a charity, or give away as a dowry. They could use the prestiti as collateral for other loans, or as surety for goods. And if they needed to get back their money — or were worried about the solvency of Venice — they could head down to the Rialto market and sell their claims to the bankers, speculators, and merchants who had started to actively trade the prestiti there.
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The 12th-century military disaster that forever changed global finance
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Comment on Blocking of unverified apps on Android starts in Brazil and other three countries in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentI largely agree with how you describe what's going on. But it depends what you mean by "Android." Yes, Google does control what OEM's do by making requirements on them in order to install the Play...I largely agree with how you describe what's going on. But it depends what you mean by "Android."
Yes, Google does control what OEM's do by making requirements on them in order to install the Play Store and Google apps on their devices. The EU has fined them for this when they go too far. But it seems like it still leaves quite a bit of freedom for OEM's to do their own thing? I haven't been all that interested in whatever Samsung is doing, but it's sounds like it's pretty far from the stock OS?
Also, that's different from controlling what other companies do with open source Android code. There are alternatives that don't have the Play Store (most often seen in China).
Your charactization of Google "[l]etting core AOSP apps wither and die" is kinda odd because AOSP doesn't have to be a complete OS for others to build on it, and the sample apps don't have to be very good to demonstrate how it works. If we want to see an Android OS not controlled by Google, shouldn't it be someone else building and maintaining those apps rather than being dependent on Google to do it for them?
Maybe the alternatives will improve now that AI makes it easier to do.
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Comment on Blocking of unverified apps on Android starts in Brazil and other three countries in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentWho should do it if not Google, though? See my other post for how this currently works.Who should do it if not Google, though? See my other post for how this currently works.
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Comment on Blocking of unverified apps on Android starts in Brazil and other three countries in ~tech
skybrian (edited )Link ParentWhat democratic mechanisms do you have in mind? It's often the case that a legislature passes laws that private organizations have to follow. Or, more indirectly, they pass a law for the executive...What democratic mechanisms do you have in mind? It's often the case that a legislature passes laws that private organizations have to follow.
Or, more indirectly, they pass a law for the executive branch to write the specific regulations that direct companies to come up with their own rules that customers have to follow. Public officials are not writing the specific rules that banks use to protect against fraud, but they get to decide whether those rules are adequate.
Similarly, when state legislatures pass laws requiring social media websites to do age verification, they don't say specifically how companies have to do it, and they're definitely not making judgements on individual users or posts.
In theory, a government could run its own social network and the people making such judgements could be state officials, but that seems more directly a censorship regime controlled by the state than the indirect way.
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Comment on Blocking of unverified apps on Android starts in Brazil and other three countries in ~tech
skybrian (edited )Link ParentYes, "motivation" is kinda problematic when applied to an organization. Companies have internal politics and governance disputes. Different people have different opinions about the company's...Yes, "motivation" is kinda problematic when applied to an organization. Companies have internal politics and governance disputes. Different people have different opinions about the company's direction. As with any organization, some of those opinions might be from employees who don't actually know what's going on or have much power to change the company's direction.
So when people talk about a company's "true" motives versus their officially stated justifications, what are they talking about, exactly?
I'm not discounting evidence. I'm discounting the lack of evidence. Most people makng claims about motivation don't actually give any evidence!
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Comment on Blocking of unverified apps on Android starts in Brazil and other three countries in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentTrends are a form of averaging or stereotyping. They can certainly be a reasonable basis for suspicion, but you can't use a trend as evidence that someone definitely did a specific thing. A...Trends are a form of averaging or stereotyping. They can certainly be a reasonable basis for suspicion, but you can't use a trend as evidence that someone definitely did a specific thing. A journalist who worked that way would be making things up instead of doing the reporting needed for each new story that they report on.
But also, sometimes people think they have lots of examples when they don't actually have good evidence for any of them!
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Comment on Blocking of unverified apps on Android starts in Brazil and other three countries in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentPeopie love to hate it, but ManifestV3 could also be seen as an example of how Google is doing the right thing despite it being unpopular. According to Google, Chrome extensions are being locked...Peopie love to hate it, but ManifestV3 could also be seen as an example of how Google is doing the right thing despite it being unpopular. According to Google, Chrome extensions are being locked down as part of a years-long effort to protect users from dodgy extensions. And there certainly are a lot of dodgy extensions! Even the good ones are in danger of being taken over and turned into malware if the author trusts the wrong person to take over from them.
So that's not evidence of anything other than populists have lots of strongly-held opinions about Google's motives that are based on their own suspicions and those of others.
Evidence for motives doesn't come from suspicions alone, no matter how strongly stated. Just because you suspect a company might have bad motives doesn't mean you have evidence for that belief.
You certainly don't have to take every stated reason at face value, but converting suspicions into facts isn't right. It would be journalistic malpractice and a travesty of justice.
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Comment on Blocking of unverified apps on Android starts in Brazil and other three countries in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentPeople keep saying that, but I've never seen any evidence that Google's motivations aren't what they say they are. It's just a populist conspiracy making the rounds because people want to believe.This is very clearly a way for Google to give themselves just a bit more control over the platform under the guise of safety
People keep saying that, but I've never seen any evidence that Google's motivations aren't what they say they are. It's just a populist conspiracy making the rounds because people want to believe.
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Comment on Blocking of unverified apps on Android starts in Brazil and other three countries in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentNo insult intended. I don't see a huge difference between the government doing it and corporations doing it. It's often the case that the government is essentially pushing the corporations to do...No insult intended. I don't see a huge difference between the government doing it and corporations doing it. It's often the case that the government is essentially pushing the corporations to do the regulation for them, because it needs to be done and they don't want to do it themselves.
For example, a lot of the things banks do to prevent money-laundering are because the government is leaning on them to do it. Protecting people from fraud is not something that can be left to the government alone. Many businesses that deal with payments have to deal with fraud too.
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Comment on Blocking of unverified apps on Android starts in Brazil and other three countries in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentThere are plenty of products that are regulated to protect people from themselves. Food and drugs are regulated. Cars are regulated. Don’t let the libertarians fool you, this is totally normal.There are plenty of products that are regulated to protect people from themselves. Food and drugs are regulated. Cars are regulated. Don’t let the libertarians fool you, this is totally normal.
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Comment on Blocking of unverified apps on Android starts in Brazil and other three countries in ~tech
skybrian (edited )Link ParentOn the contrary, Android phones are primarily for the masses, not us techies. If you’re more technical then there’s plenty of hardware you can buy to hack on. if you want to root your phone, make...On the contrary, Android phones are primarily for the masses, not us techies. If you’re more technical then there’s plenty of hardware you can buy to hack on. if you want to root your phone, make sure you buy one where the bootloader can be unlocked. (Such as any Pixel phone that you buy direct from Google.)
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Comment on Blocking of unverified apps on Android starts in Brazil and other three countries in ~tech
skybrian (edited )Link ParentPeople say that but Android has been around for 18 years now and there are still plenty of manufacturers making them. If Google didn’t want other manufacturers making Android phones, you’d think...People say that but Android has been around for 18 years now and there are still plenty of manufacturers making them. If Google didn’t want other manufacturers making Android phones, you’d think they’d have done something about it by now?
They also seem suspiciously slow at acting against alternative app stores.
And why does Google only sell phones with an unlocked bootloader? They didn’t have to do that.
Maybe don’t believe everything you read online about what a company’s motives might be.
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Comment on Blocking of unverified apps on Android starts in Brazil and other three countries in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentThere’s also plenty being done to protect people from malware, whether it’s bad websites or bad apps. But when it doesn’t affect you directly, maybe it’s less noticeable.There’s also plenty being done to protect people from malware, whether it’s bad websites or bad apps. But when it doesn’t affect you directly, maybe it’s less noticeable.
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Comment on Our AI midwife in ~health
skybrian Link ParentThere are certainly tradeoffs, but I’m hopeful that it isn’t always a necessary tradeoff. That is, it should be possible to somehow combine AI-based research and professional advice to get the...There are certainly tradeoffs, but I’m hopeful that it isn’t always a necessary tradeoff. That is, it should be possible to somehow combine AI-based research and professional advice to get the best of both.
Hard to do though, with some patients.
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Comment on With most information hidden, the game Stratego had stumped AI—until now in ~games
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...] [...] [...]From the article:
Deep Blue took down Garry Kasparov at chess in 1997, AlphaGo beat Lee Sedol at Go in 2016, and poker bots have been beating professionals for years. But one classic game called Stratego held out. Even DeepMind, with its exceptional budget, couldn’t build a machine that reliably beat the best human players.
Now, a team of researchers from Carnegie Mellon, MIT, New York University, and Stanford University has done it. Their AI, called Ataraxos, beat Pim Niemeijer, arguably the best Stratego player of all time, 15 games to one, with four draws. And it took just 16 GPUs and a few thousand dollars to train it.
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In Stratego, each player gets 40 pieces representing military ranks, from a marshal down to a spy, plus bombs and a flag. You win by capturing the opponent’s flag. Your opponent knows where your pieces are, but not what they are. Identities are revealed only when two pieces collide in battle—the weaker one is removed, and the identity of the winner is revealed. That makes Stratego an imperfect-information game, just like poker, which computers cracked years ago. “There’s something super distinctive about Stratego, which is that it is a massive amount of hidden information that unfolds over a very long time scale,” said Eugene Vinitsky, a researcher at NYU and co-author of the study.
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Just like DeepNash, Ataraxos learned by playing against itself—163 million games in total. In these self-play sessions, moves that led to wins were reinforced and played more often in future matches, while moves that led to losses were played less, which was the same simple training idea. The difference was in how much Ataraxos adjusted after each game, because hidden information tends to send self-play learning algorithms around in circles. The team addressed this by making big, bold changes in strategy early in training and small, careful ones later.
The even bigger innovation was something DeepNash never had: thinking ahead before each move. AIs like AlphaGo refine their general strategy with a search just before acting. DeepMind couldn’t make that work in Stratego because the search space was too large, leaving it an open question whether it was worth trying.
“This is one of the things that we did figure out how to do,” Farina said. The solution was a second neural network, a belief model, trained to guess the opponent’s hidden pieces based on how they had been moving. This way, instead of iterating through every possible arrangement, Ataraxos samples plausible ones, plays out candidate moves in each, and picks based on how they turned out.
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The name Ataraxos comes from the ancient Greek word for a state of calm. “It means somebody that’s calm and unbothered,” Farina explained. He suggests the structure of the AI and its lack of human emotions ensure it doesn’t react impulsively, “even in situations where a human would be losing their mind.” While the human might try big gambles to come back from a significant deficit, Ataraxos would work its way back into the game slowly and methodically.
The strategy it developed also avoids drawing attention to any problems it faces. When Ataraxos estimates its opponent has no reason to suspect a weak spot, it leaves that spot alone, even if it might look like a disaster waiting to happen to anyone who can see both sides of the board.
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At the 2025 Stratego World Championship, attendees who challenged Ataraxos fared even worse. The AI won 38 of 40 games. In the process, it also changed how people play. “I think this bot has kind of skewed the metagame a little bit,” Farina said.
Players were surprised, for example, by how often it tucked its flag into a corner behind just two bombs, a rarely played setup.
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With most information hidden, the game Stratego had stumped AI—until now
22 votes
GiveWell is fine if global public health is what you care about. It’s what I use. It’s old school EA before people got distracted by animal welfare and AI.
If you don’t care who in the world benefits because all people are equal (all strangers are the same), public health in Africa is going to win for cost-efficiency reasons. A lot of people can be helped for relatively little money. It can save lives. What local organization could do that cheaply?
But the benefits are rather abstract. When people benefit from not getting a disease, they won’t know it. It’s a line on a graph going down, and your contribution is too small to see on the graph, but you can do a calculation to get a rough idea of lives saved. So, it’s a matter of trusting the science. Which I do, but… it’s a rather abstract reason to spend your money.
If you want something a bit less abstract, you could try GiveDirectly. This is just giving people money to people in need. A nice thing about it is that people will definitely know they got the money, and it empowers them to spend it on what they like. There are studies showing they mostly spend it on beneficial things. It’s not as efficient as public health, but it’s a good baseline. GiveDirectly also lets you choose to donate to help people in the US if that’s what you prefer.
Neither of these is helping a particular cause, though. I’m interested in that too, but don’t have anything to recommend.