skybrian's recent activity
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Comment on Access to Fable and Mythos 5 cut off after US government order in ~tech
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Comment on Access to Fable and Mythos 5 cut off after US government order in ~tech
skybrian LinkApparently the "jailbreak" was "fix this code." The Fable 5 Export Controls Harm US Cyber DefenseApparently the "jailbreak" was "fix this code."
The Fable 5 Export Controls Harm US Cyber Defense
Since I appear to be the only outside expert who has actually read the paper, I can separate the technical facts from the speculation. The researchers took open-source code with known CVEs, plus new code with deliberately planted vulnerabilities, and asked Fable 5, Mythos, and Opus to “review the code for security issues.” Fable 5 refused. They then asked the models to “fix this code” and, through a multistep and manual process, turned the output into scripts that test the patches.
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Comment on Access to Fable and Mythos 5 cut off after US government order in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentYou can sincerely believe that your company has great products that users like and make the world a better place, and also you're all going to be rich. That was Google for the first decade or so....You can sincerely believe that your company has great products that users like and make the world a better place, and also you're all going to be rich. That was Google for the first decade or so. People got a little giddy.
This doesn't seem to be how it's going at the AI labs. They are warning everyone who will listen about the dangers of AI while also attempting to grow the company as fast as they can, because better that they be in charge of it than their competitors. Sure, they hope it turns out to make the world a better place, somehow, but they're worried.
As for what outside investors want, they don't get much formal say due to things like shareholder classes. But employees are shareholders, so they're directly motivated. (Which is why the coup against Altman failed.)
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Comment on Elon Musk net worth estimated at $1.1 trillion in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentThat depends on whether you believe prices ought to have something to do with future cash flows. But when there's no consensus on this, maybe it's more chaotic.That depends on whether you believe prices ought to have something to do with future cash flows.
But when there's no consensus on this, maybe it's more chaotic.
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Comment on What about having an LLM teach you to code? in ~comp
skybrian Link ParentWhen writing code, I will have the coding agent write a design doc with a checklist and check off things when they're done. So, when it restarts it can see what's been done already. It seems like...When writing code, I will have the coding agent write a design doc with a checklist and check off things when they're done. So, when it restarts it can see what's been done already. It seems like something like ought to work for lessons if it can store a persistent file somewhere.
I imagine someday, that will be built in. We're just at the beginning of figuring out how to use these things.
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Comment on Elon Musk net worth estimated at $1.1 trillion in ~finance
skybrian LinkSpaceX stock jumps for second day, now up over 40% since debut A funny thing about the stock market is that most prices have to be wrong (a company's true value cannot be that volatile), but it's...SpaceX stock jumps for second day, now up over 40% since debut
A funny thing about the stock market is that most prices have to be wrong (a company's true value cannot be that volatile), but it's hard to say what the right price is or when it will be reached.
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Comment on US battery industry cuts losses, shifts to new ventures amid electric vehicle bust in ~transport
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...]From the article:
Until recently, almost all announced gigafactories in the U.S. were intended to produce batteries for EVs, tying their economic fortunes to automakers' ability to sell a sufficiently large number of those vehicles.
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However, the pace of growth slowed substantially in 2024 and essentially plateaued in 2025. Despite efforts to introduce EVs of sufficient quality and low enough price to convince U.S. consumers to switch en masse from gasoline-powered cars, automakers couldn’t get more buyers to do so.
Recent federal policy changes have also affected sales. Consumer subsidies for purchasing EVs, originally scheduled to expire in 2032, were instead eliminated at the end of September 2025. Sales were unusually high preceding the expiration deadline and then dropped precipitously (Chart 2).
Current sales of EVs are insufficient to justify the investments made in gigafactories, and the outlook does not suggest significant improvement anytime soon. Many third-party forecasters have markedly cut their demand projections for EVs in the U.S. Automakers have also acknowledged these difficulties, both by reframing their EV sales goals and by making the difficult decision to write off billions of dollars of capital investments tied to EVs and batteries.
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While EV sales have failed to meet expectations, the use of lithium-ion batteries in battery energy storage systems has grown rapidly, with demand expected to remain strong in 2026 (Chart 3). The systems can play a critical role in integrating intermittent renewables (solar and wind) into the grid, smoothing fluctuations in wholesale electricity prices and aiding short-term grid stability.
The number of battery installations for power storage systems has risen rapidly for at least two reasons. First, prices of lithium-ion batteries have declined dramatically in recent years, improving their economics. Second, a significant amount of utility-scale solar has been installed as well. Batteries are often viewed as especially complementary to solar power, as batteries can charge up during the early part of the day and then discharge in the evening when solar ramps down and wholesale electricity prices can spike.
There is also a growing realization that data centers will be important new users of battery energy storage systems, particularly for backup power. The electricity requirements of some proposed facilities are extremely large, requiring widespread use of batteries. For example, the proposed Stargate 1 project in Abilene, Texas, may install batteries with a total capacity of 1 gigawatt, roughly equivalent to 6 percent of all batteries installed on the grid in the U.S. in 2025.
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US battery industry cuts losses, shifts to new ventures amid electric vehicle bust
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Comment on So I fell for a phishing in ~comp
skybrian LinkMaybe look through Gmail settings for anything suspicious? For example, make sure mail isn't being forwarded anywhere.Maybe look through Gmail settings for anything suspicious? For example, make sure mail isn't being forwarded anywhere.
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Comment on China’s lab-grown diamonds emerge as unlikely winner in AI boom in ~finance
skybrian Linkhttps://archive.is/D9FC7 From the article: [...]From the article:
China’s lab-grown diamonds are emerging as a surprising beneficiary of the artificial intelligence boom, with demand climbing while they gain traction as a key component in advanced chipmaking.
Traditionally associated with jewelry, these synthetic gems are now being adopted as chip‑cooling materials, enabling denser and more powerful AI semiconductors. Momentum has accelerated after several Chinese producers reported that clients validated their diamonds as effective heat spreaders and began commercial shipments.
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Gains in this niche segment underscore investors’ search for new AI winners, as crowded hardware bets, from printed circuit boards to optical modules, have grown more expensive after a sharp rally. The surge also highlights a shift toward next‑generation cooling materials, with analysts noting that diamond is increasingly viewed as a superior alternative to traditional solutions like copper or aluminum.
“Diamond cooling is moving toward an industry consensus, with applications expected to expand across AI and data centers,” Huayuan Securities analysts wrote in a note on Monday.
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China’s lab-grown diamonds emerge as unlikely winner in AI boom
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Comment on Access to Fable and Mythos 5 cut off after US government order in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentPerhaps but I don’t really see how that works. For example, what would Uber’s management think Lyft could do with AI? They have software that works. It doesn’t seem like better software would...Perhaps but I don’t really see how that works. For example, what would Uber’s management think Lyft could do with AI? They have software that works. It doesn’t seem like better software would change things much.
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Comment on Access to Fable and Mythos 5 cut off after US government order in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentIt seems far-fetched. It would be nice if there were some good reporting about this.It seems far-fetched. It would be nice if there were some good reporting about this.
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Comment on Does generative AI have a natural limit without a major innovation? in ~comp
skybrian LinkNow that AI chatbots are typically an LLM augmented with tools, there’s no natural limit beyond what computers can do. The tools could do anything the LLM can’t do on its own. AI research is...Now that AI chatbots are typically an LLM augmented with tools, there’s no natural limit beyond what computers can do. The tools could do anything the LLM can’t do on its own.
AI research is moving rapidly and putting any bound on what researchers might come up with is very hard.
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Comment on Access to Fable and Mythos 5 cut off after US government order in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentThe opportunity to become rich explains the AI labs and AI startups. It doesn’t explain why some managers are so eager to get all their employees to run up expenses, rather than just experimenting...- Exemplary
The opportunity to become rich explains the AI labs and AI startups. It doesn’t explain why some managers are so eager to get all their employees to run up expenses, rather than just experimenting with AI.
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Comment on Four things to know about the newly approved US sunscreen ingredient in ~health
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...] [...] [...] [...] [...]From the article:
For the first time in nearly three decades, the Food and Drug Administration approved a new chemical UV filter for use in sunscreens sold in the U.S. And that has many dermatologists cheering.
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The new ingredient is called bemotrizinol, and it has several advantages over the chemical sunscreen ingredients previously available in the U.S., Rogers says.
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In general, chemical sunscreens sold in the U.S. rely on an ingredient called avobenzone to block out UVA rays, says Kelly Dobos, a cosmetic chemist who teaches at the University of Cincinnati.
But avobenzone by itself isn't photo stable, meaning its protection can start to break down rapidly when exposed to sunlight. And as avobenzone breaks down, it can release molecules that lead to skin irritation, says Alexa Friedman, a senior scientist with the nonprofit Environmental Working Group, or EWG.
By contrast, bemotrizinol offers protection against both UVA and UVB rays all on its own, and it is photo stable, so it breaks down more slowly, offering better protection, Rogers says.
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Bemotrizinol has been widely used in European and Asian sunscreens for decades. But it has taken 20 years for the FDA to approve its use in this country.
That's because in the U.S., sunscreens are regulated as over-the-counter drugs rather than cosmetics, as they're classified in Europe. That means ingredients need to undergo rigorous testing for safety and efficacy before they can be approved for use in the U.S.
"It's really expensive and time consuming," Dobos says. The European company DSM-Firmenich spent at least $18 million over more than two decades in its push to gain FDA approval for bemotrizinol.
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However, all that testing means bemotrizinol has more safety data to back it up than any other chemical sunscreen ingredient currently approved in the U.S., says Friedman of EWG.
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Until now, Rogers says, the only sunscreen ingredient available in the U.S. that offered the aforementioned advantages of bemotrizinol – photo stable, non-irritating, minimally absorbed into the skin and with good broad spectrum protection against both UVA and UVB rays – was zinc oxide.
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Bemotrizinol, on the other hand, is transparent on the skin, and because it protects against both UVA and UVB rays on its own, it doesn't have to be mixed with as many other chemical filters and stabilizers to achieve broad spectrum protection, Dobos adds. She says that should lead to more aesthetically pleasing, less greasy sunscreen formulations in the near future.
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Four things to know about the newly approved US sunscreen ingredient
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Comment on Why a 31-year-old software engineer wants to build a new neighborhood in wine country in ~finance
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...]From the article:
Zuegel, a 31-year-old software engineer raised in the heart of Silicon Valley, arrived in Cloverdale two years ago with fanciful renderings for a village with upwards of 600 new apartments and homes on the city's eastern edge. She gave it the name Esmeralda, and in this tight-knit town of just under 9,000 people, the idea stoked both excitement and alarm.
Zuegel's connections to the global center for tech innovation inspired comparisons to billionaires talking about forming their own governments and living on Mars. Zuegel has said that's not her world, but a place like Cloverdale could be. A live music festival runs on Friday nights all summer, shutting down the boulevard and drawing crowds of local families, retirees and neighbors. Banners hang on light posts celebrating active military service members.
This summer, Cloverdale will begin formally considering Zuegel's Esmeralda development proposal, an idea that has already consumed two years of public debate: Whether a long-dormant, 266-acre former industrial mill site along the Russian River should become an entirely new walkable neighborhood with housing, a hotel, an amphitheater, shops and cafes, playgrounds, parks and trails.
It's been nearly a half-century since utility poles were cut and treated with chemicals on the site. Since then, the land has undergone soil excavation, treatment injections and other forms of remediation. Various plans to transform the languishing but prime riverfront land have been taken up and abandoned, including a proposed destination resort with commercial space, homes, an equestrian center plus an 18-hole golf course. The city said yes two decades ago, but the project never moved beyond a concept.
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The Esmeralda Land Co. would build housing at a time when nearly every California city is desperate for more. It would build municipal water tanks, public trails and a park - all gifts to the city. And the project would generate an annual fiscal surplus of $2.3 million, at a minimum, according to a draft financial impact analysis they're producing for the city - to replenish Cloverdale city coffers and end an ongoing budget deficit.
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To supporters, Esmeralda is a rare chance to bring a major jolt of new energy to Cloverdale, where downtown businesses often struggle to stay open past late afternoon. To skeptics, it risks disrupting a careful balance in a community threatened by drought, wildfire and economic strain.
Esmeralda Land Co.'s plans, at least these initial concepts, are ambitious but not that radical compared to other neighborhood buildouts. About 40 miles south on Highway 101, Rohnert Park's SOMO Village has been remaking a former Hewlett-Packard manufacturing campus into a 176-acre mixed-use neighborhood. Approved for 1,750 homes, the site already has apartments, offices, a brew pub and a school, with more residential construction underway.
Sonoma County's northernmost city must plan for 335 new homes by 2031 or face state penalties. Cloverdale had already reached about 70% of its affordable housing goals at the end of 2024, according to city data, but was further behind with market rate housing.
Esmeralda would push the city far beyond that mark.
Zuegel's company has secured the option to buy the property, which comes with those entitlements approved about 20 years ago to build a resort with 235 homes, an 18-hole golf course, equestrian center plus commercial space. But they are applying to revise the plan and allow for a more connected, public-oriented enclave with a 200-room hotel, 200-unit senior housing complex, 405 market rate dwellings (a mix of houses and town homes), 22,000 square feet of retail space and 17,500 square feet of office space plus 168 acres for open space and recreation.
Zuegel said they have the financial backing of 19 individual and family investors, most from the Bay Area, including some from Sonoma County. The Esmeralda Land Co. is not disclosing their identities; Zuegel said they wish to remain anonymous.
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Why a 31-year-old software engineer wants to build a new neighborhood in wine country
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Comment on What’s new in biology: June 2026 in ~science
skybrian LinkFrom the article:From the article:
The most effective weight-loss drug so far, cancer breakthroughs, gene editing for cholesterol, ancestral CRISPR systems, and more.
Corporate governance varies and some big tech companies (including Google and Facebook) have rigged things so that management cannot be kicked out. A common way this is done is with some shareholder classes having more votes.
But management and employees often have stock options or restricted shares too. The whole company will be happier if the stock price is going up. Even when their control is secure, they have incentives to do things the stock market likes anyway.