skybrian's recent activity

  1. Comment on AI populism's warning shots in ~society

    skybrian
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    I’m not going to check all of these, but I did check the first anecdote in the first link: With ChatGPT’s help, I was able to find the rate schedules for the city of Manassas. In 2016 it was...

    I’m not going to check all of these, but I did check the first anecdote in the first link:

    John Steinbach was shocked to receive a $281 electricity bill in January 2026—a huge spike from the roughly $100 he’d paid the previous month. “It’s just so far beyond any bill that I’ve ever had,” he says. Steinbach, who has lived in his Manassas, Va., home for nearly 40 years, worries his rates will keep climbing as the outsized electricity demand from AI data centers grows. “They’re building them like it’s ‘Field of Dreams’—build it and the electricity will come—but we don’t see how that’s going to happen.”

    With ChatGPT’s help, I was able to find the rate schedules for the city of Manassas. In 2016 it was $13.59 per month plus $0.0830 per kWh and the current rate schedule is $16.17 per month and $0.0984 per kWh, or about an 18% increase over a decade.

    So, something doesn’t add up?

    Here is a news story about how Manassas is considering a 10% increase.

    But Council member Mark Wolfe said the data center power crunch isn’t driving the city’s proposed rate increase.

    Instead, he said the 10% increase in rates is needed to keep the city’s electric system financially sustainable after years of flat rates and sharply rising costs in both materials and labor.

    The city went without any increase in electric rates from 2017 through 2023, Wolfe said. The increase is needed now “to reestablish that our utility enterprise operations are sustained by the utility rate revenue.”

    Also, for a Californian these rates look extremely low. We are paying about .30 per kilowatt-hour, three times as much.

  2. Comment on AI populism's warning shots in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Has anyone had their energy bill double due to a data center? What is that based on? You don’t know anything to repeat rumors. If you want to avoid spreading misinformation, these things do need...

    Has anyone had their energy bill double due to a data center? What is that based on?

    You don’t know anything to repeat rumors. If you want to avoid spreading misinformation, these things do need to be checked.

    1 vote

  3. Comment on Allbirds announces pivot from running shoes to AI compute; stock surged over 700% in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    No, I've read various comparisons but it seems difficult to figure out, which is why I'm suspicious of confident assertions. For customers, I've seen a comparison that using AI and watching...

    No, I've read various comparisons but it seems difficult to figure out, which is why I'm suspicious of confident assertions.

    For customers, I've seen a comparison that using AI and watching Netflix are in the same ballpark, but I have low confidence in that.

    1 vote

  4. Comment on Allbirds announces pivot from running shoes to AI compute; stock surged over 700% in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Why wouldn’t manufacturing shoes be more environmentally harmful? It seems like a wild assumption to make without investigating.

    Why wouldn’t manufacturing shoes be more environmentally harmful? It seems like a wild assumption to make without investigating.

    4 votes

  5. Comment on AI populism's warning shots in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Yes, there are people like that too and that’s bad. That’s not populism, though? The article isn’t about the managers. Although, I suppose the OpenClaw craze is a kind of influencer-driven...

    Yes, there are people like that too and that’s bad. That’s not populism, though? The article isn’t about the managers.

    Although, I suppose the OpenClaw craze is a kind of influencer-driven populism. And there do seem to be lots of ordinary people using ChatGPT in inappropriate ways?

  6. Comment on AI populism's warning shots in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    What I took from the article is that, while it’s possible to be a smart skeptic of AI, this is not the way to bet. There are inevitably going to be a lot of uninformed people complaining about AI...

    What I took from the article is that, while it’s possible to be a smart skeptic of AI, this is not the way to bet. There are inevitably going to be a lot of uninformed people complaining about AI who know very little about it but are sure it’s bad. Compare with populist beliefs about vaccines or the pandemic or 9/11 or child abuse or foreign aid or trade.

    This seems to be true of many hot-button topic these days. Uninformed people on both sides make lots of noise while saying things that are wildly wrong about the specifics.

    Of course, by taking a position it’s possible to be “directionally accurate” by coincidence. I don’t really consider that a “legitimate position.” There is more to making an argument than being on the right side. You also have to avoid repeating falsehoods.

    3 votes

  7. Comment on OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s home targeted with molotov cocktail in ~tech

    skybrian
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    The trouble is that the alternative to paid labor is unpaid labor. There are situations when volunteers can play a role, but it would be unethical to expect nurses to go unpaid. Traditionally,...

    The trouble is that the alternative to paid labor is unpaid labor. There are situations when volunteers can play a role, but it would be unethical to expect nurses to go unpaid.

    Traditionally, people relied on unpaid labor by family members. And I'm living that because my mother came to stay with us for the winter and I expect to do more of that. It works for us.

    Except, it's not going to work for my wife and I because we don't have kids. It would be both unworkable and unethical to attempt to rely on volunteers when we get old.

    I do hope we will be able to find caring people to help us, but I also expect to pay them.

    4 votes

  8. Comment on AI populism's warning shots in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Politicians talk all the time about "creating jobs" and sometimes this happens, but at scale, creating new jobs is apparently easier said than done and people continue to worry.

    Politicians talk all the time about "creating jobs" and sometimes this happens, but at scale, creating new jobs is apparently easier said than done and people continue to worry.

    6 votes

  9. Comment on AI populism's warning shots in ~society

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: [...]

    From the article:

    In 2026, the politics of AI has a new meta: “caring a lot about AI” is no longer correlated with “knowing a lot about AI.” AI is rising in salience faster than any other issue among US voters. Politicians gearing up for the 2026 midterms and 2028 primaries won’t lag far behind. That means AI policy is no longer the remit of a few wonky technocrats. From now until forever, most people regulating, protesting, and talking about AI will not be interested in AI per se, but rather how it impacts their preexisting belief systems and political agendas. These forces are stronger, more diffuse, and more volatile than we have seen in AI policy before. And the curve is just about to shoot straight up.

    I define AI populism as a worldview in which AI is viewed not only as a normal technology but as an elite political project to be resisted. It regards AI as a thing manufactured by out-of-touch billionaires and pushed onto an unwilling public to achieve sinister aims like “capitalist efficiency” (layoffs) and “population management” (surveillance). AI populists don’t really care whether ChatGPT is personally useful, or if Waymos eke out some safety gains: AI’s utility as a tool is immaterial relative to the unwelcome societal change it represents.

    Among the public, AI populism shows up as individual attempts to block AI encroachment; for example, data center NIMBYism, AI witchhunts among creatives, and in the extreme, assassination attempts like what happened to Altman this week.

    [...]

    What seems likely is that the anti-elite and nihilistic attitudes that have dominated US political culture in the last few years are transmuting into anger at AI billionaires. Young people are particularly incensed. Gen Z already grew up in a world that they felt was shrinking, where grift and shitcoins and sports gambling looked like the only paths up. Now, they’re being told AI is the reason they can’t get a job—and potentially never will. Just as the United Healthcare CEO seemed like a justified target to many disillusioned and radicalized young people, so will AI executives be to many more.

    10 votes

  11. Comment on No-stack web development in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    It’s usually combined with some kind of JavaScript component (such as React widgets), so in the source code, the duplication is removed in a different way.

    It’s usually combined with some kind of JavaScript component (such as React widgets), so in the source code, the duplication is removed in a different way.

    5 votes

  12. Comment on Why cheap waste management is key to stopping plastic pollution in ~enviro

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Not sure what you mean since there are news stories about climate change and alternative energy all the time and it’s a common subject of conversation. A lot of the news has been bad, though.

    Not sure what you mean since there are news stories about climate change and alternative energy all the time and it’s a common subject of conversation.

    A lot of the news has been bad, though.

    3 votes

  13. Comment on OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s home targeted with molotov cocktail in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Sometimes he does: OpenAI calls for robot taxes, a public wealth fund, and a 4-day workweek to tackle AI disruption. I don’t think it’s going to satisfy anyone, though, because it’s just talk....

    if he also advocated for UBI programs

    Sometimes he does:

    OpenAI calls for robot taxes, a public wealth fund, and a 4-day workweek to tackle AI disruption.

    OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has also expressed support for Universal Basic Income, a proposal for recurring cash payments to all adults regardless of wealth or employment.

    In May 2024, Altman suggested a new version he dubbed Universal Basic Compute, where people receive a share of AI computing power rather than cash, which they could use, sell, or donate.

    I don’t think it’s going to satisfy anyone, though, because it’s just talk. Converting that into something real is up to governments, not the AI companies.

    There is a very well-funded foundation, though, and they could do… something?

    OpenAI accidentally built one of the world’s richest charities. Now what?

    Nonetheless, OpenAI did finally strike a contortive restructuring deal last October. Essentially, the for-profit arm became what is known as a public benefit corporation (PBC), called the OpenAI Group. The original nonprofit became the OpenAI Foundation, which has a 26 percent stake currently worth $180 billion in the PBC, plus a sliver of exclusive legal control over certain major decisions.

    …

    The resulting stake of the OpenAI Foundation is big enough to instantly make it one of the wealthiest charities in the country, or in OpenAI’s words, the “best-equipped nonprofit the world has ever seen.” On paper, at least, the foundation is now significantly richer than the entire country of Luxembourg. Even the Gates Foundation has only $77.6 billion in assets, less than half of what the OpenAI Foundation can draw from, though it’s important to note that most of the wealth of the OpenAI Foundation is locked in fairly illiquid shares within the still private company, which limits how quickly any money can be given away.

    4 votes

  14. Comment on OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s home targeted with molotov cocktail in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    I’m in favor of UBI. But regarding new jobs, the question is whether there is more work that could be done if there were people were willing to pay for it and the systems in place to make that...

    I’m in favor of UBI. But regarding new jobs, the question is whether there is more work that could be done if there were people were willing to pay for it and the systems in place to make that work viable.

    When people aren’t worrying about AI, sometimes they worry about demographics - more retirees to take care of and fewer workers to support them. Maybe that’s what productivity improvements get “spent” on? In some countries, anyway.

    4 votes

  15. Comment on How Human Rights Watch counters atrocities in ~society

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: [...] [...] [...]

    From the article:

    Human Rights Watch is one of my favorite non-effective-altruist-identified nonprofits. I’ve often referenced their reports when I want an unbiased, objective source about what atrocities are happening in a particular country. So I was eager to read Righting Wrongs, which is a memoir by their former CEO, Kenneth Roth, about his experiences working there.

    You might wonder whether Human Rights Watch is doing any good. Observably, many authoritarian dictators exist and innovate endlessly in terms of human cruelty. Is Human Rights Watch managing to accomplish anything other than issuing reports for me to reference in blog posts?

    [...]

    I want to emphasize that shame often directly attacks the material interests of human rights abusers. If the United States or the European Union is unhappy with you, that doesn’t just result being iced out at parties. It can mean you don’t get the aid or trade you were counting on to feed your people (or build your thirty-seventh palace, whatever). It can mean you don’t get the tanks and planes you need to combat the Islamic State of Wherethefuckever. It can, apparently, mean that Donald Trump orders your abduction or assassination (and then your country is a trashfire but what do you care about that, you’re still arrested or dead).

    The major weakness of Human Rights Watch’s tactics, according to Kenneth Roth, is that they don’t work against Kim Jong Un. North Korea’s strategies for cementing support among key power bases within its own country have nothing to do with ruling well; committing more atrocities, to some extent, actually makes elites support the government more. And North Korea has been an international pariah for so long that they have no international reputation to lose. Some dictators are, indeed, immune to shame.

    [...]

    Introductory microeconomics works both ways. You can deter behavior by making it costlier on the margin. But as cutting a deal with you becomes more expensive, people start to look for some other source of military assistance, economic aid, trade deals, and fancy summit invites.

    [...]

    Ultimately, Human Rights Watch’s moral power comes from the sense that they’re fair: they hold everyone to exactly the same standards; no one they criticize is being unfairly targeted.

    Third, Human Rights Watch must only recommend actions that are possible. This isn’t really a constraint on civil and political rights: it’s always possible to hold elections, stop bombing civilians, not commit genocide, let women drive cars, and so on. But some people have declared that healthcare is a human right, or climate change is a human rights violation, or global poverty is a human rights issue.

    However, no matter how enthusiastically you shame poor governments, they can’t get money from nowhere. Many poor countries—even if they were run perfectly—would be unable to provide an American or European standard of living for their citizens. And climate change is a complex problem that every country on earth contributes to; no country can unilaterally decide to cap global warming at 1.5ºC. If you shame these countries, you’re blowing political capital for no reason.

    Human Rights Watch does address so-called economic rights, but only unambiguous corruption or unambiguously wasteful vanity projects—situations where there’s a specific, concrete action a country could stop doing.

  17. Comment on The center has a bias in ~tech

    skybrian
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    I think if you ignore all distinctions, you might end up claiming that Margaret Sanger (the founder of Planned Parenthood, who apparently did publish pro-eugenics articles) was some kind of racist...

    I think if you ignore all distinctions, you might end up claiming that Margaret Sanger (the founder of Planned Parenthood, who apparently did publish pro-eugenics articles) was some kind of racist Nazi.

    So, I'm going to stick with making distinctions. I think it's important to try not to misrepresent other people's beliefs.

    7 votes

  18. Comment on The center has a bias in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    It's a pretty strange ethical stance to equate killing people with preventing future births. Certainly, the people being killed would care about the distinction.

    It's a pretty strange ethical stance to equate killing people with preventing future births. Certainly, the people being killed would care about the distinction.

    5 votes

  19. Comment on Dual national Londoner stranded in Spain by new border rule in ~travel

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Does the UK government have computers where they could look up someone's citizenship status? It seems like in principle, they could have all the information available to them that's in a passport....

    Does the UK government have computers where they could look up someone's citizenship status? It seems like in principle, they could have all the information available to them that's in a passport.

    At that point the physical passport just serves as proof of identity and there could be other acceptable proofs.

    Relying on physical documents has downsides. A common tactic in human trafficking is to take peoples' passports as a way of controlling them.

    11 votes

  20. Comment on The center has a bias in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    I associate eugenics with things like forced sterilization programs and other restrictions of reproductive freedom, which are abhorrent, but actually killing people is a step beyond that.

    I associate eugenics with things like forced sterilization programs and other restrictions of reproductive freedom, which are abhorrent, but actually killing people is a step beyond that.

    3 votes