skybrian's recent activity
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Comment on How has inflation changed your quality of life? in ~finance
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Comment on How has inflation changed your quality of life? in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentHistorically true, but how many people who acquired land by force do you suppose are still alive in the US? Rather than “most” I’d expect hardly any at this point.Historically true, but how many people who acquired land by force do you suppose are still alive in the US? Rather than “most” I’d expect hardly any at this point.
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Comment on How has inflation changed your quality of life? in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentIf it’s a mild and semi-predictable inflation then I agree that it’s not so bad, but that’s not what we’ve been seeing since the pandemic. Also, other countries have it far worse.If it’s a mild and semi-predictable inflation then I agree that it’s not so bad, but that’s not what we’ve been seeing since the pandemic. Also, other countries have it far worse.
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Comment on The last technical interview in ~life
skybrian Link ParentTrying to compete with those companies for workers seems kinda tough, though, so maybe the moneyball approach would be not to try and look for talent that hasn't been recognized yet?Trying to compete with those companies for workers seems kinda tough, though, so maybe the moneyball approach would be not to try and look for talent that hasn't been recognized yet?
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Comment on Zoo CAD engine overview in ~engineering
skybrian Link ParentHaven’t tried it, but it looks like they just announced support for constraints and drawing shapes yourself is more usable now.Haven’t tried it, but it looks like they just announced support for constraints and drawing shapes yourself is more usable now.
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Comment on Is AI profitable yet? in ~tech
skybrian (edited )Link ParentThis website is using cumulative revenue and looks slightly out of date. Based on what Anthropic has announced, they are getting much more revenue now due to rapid growth, but they haven't been...This website is using cumulative revenue and looks slightly out of date. Based on what Anthropic has announced, they are getting much more revenue now due to rapid growth, but they haven't been doing it for very long.
I recently asked CharGPT to plot Anthropic's announced revenue run rates on a graph. The area under the curve for the current year looks like a bit over $10 billion and the current run rate about $4 billion a month.
These are just rough estimates though since they haven't released any financial statements yet.
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Comment on What are people's experiences with using Kagi? in ~tech
skybrian (edited )Link ParentDoes it have search if you create an account and log in?Does it have search if you create an account and log in?
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Comment on The last technical interview in ~life
skybrian Link ParentI think the idea is that it should be paid temp work, like a paid internship but shorter. More like a gig? But if it were possible to build software with temp workers, why isn't someone doing it?...I think the idea is that it should be paid temp work, like a paid internship but shorter. More like a gig?
But if it were possible to build software with temp workers, why isn't someone doing it? Maybe it's more feasible now with AI?
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Comment on What are people's experiences with using Kagi? in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentWhat do you think of Particle news? I browsed the website and it looks decent, but I don’t see a search box.What do you think of Particle news? I browsed the website and it looks decent, but I don’t see a search box.
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Comment on I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit in ~tech
skybrian (edited )Link ParentI don't know what's going to happen, but it seems like a mini-economy where businesses sell only to each other is basically a bubble. It could only work while investors are propping it up....I don't know what's going to happen, but it seems like a mini-economy where businesses sell only to each other is basically a bubble. It could only work while investors are propping it up. Eventually it runs out of new sources of funding.
Eliminating all labor is a far-fetched hypothetical. Maybe putting together a list of all the kinds of labor that can't be automated any time soon would make that clearer?
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Comment on Outsourcing plus local AI will soon become more economical vs frontier labs in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentThat will make coding agents slower (emitting more tokens takes longer) as well as increasing costs. Maybe some people on expense accounts won't notice, but others will see that it's a crappy...That will make coding agents slower (emitting more tokens takes longer) as well as increasing costs. Maybe some people on expense accounts won't notice, but others will see that it's a crappy model and switch. Word gets around eventually.
Also, many models have adjustments for "think time" that you can play around with.
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Comment on The last technical interview in ~life
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...]From the article:
It turns out interviewing was broken long before I learned the trade, and despite the many attempts to band-aid it, it’s still broken today. It has managed to survive in spite of that. But it is finally dying on its own. People are a bit unclear on what’s next, so we’ll talk about some of our options.
[...]
We’ve already established that the gold standard of assessment is working directly with someone on real work, in a real environment, for as long as needed to make the call.
So the short answer is, stop simulating. Post real pieces of work, let the candidate do it, look at what they actually produced, and decide from that work.
[...]
If you spend any time doomscrolling on X, the new meta in SF is “come work with us for a few days.” Paid, real codebase, real ticket, real team. From what I’ve heard, it generates the best signal people have ever seen, by a mile. I don’t think it beats a six-month co-op, but it’s a hell of a lot better than a standard interview loop.
So there’s already a movement away from traditional interviewing, which is why I feel comfortable making the claim that it’s already starting to die out on its own. It’s being replaced by bringing people in for longer stints. I’ve been calling this working model the campfire: pull up a log, build something together, see how it feels. Bringing in outside contributors is pretty easy, as they’ll have agents and should be able to come up to speed very quickly. If they can’t, there’s your signal.
But even though people are experimenting with it, the way it’s done today is a mess. Every shop is reinventing a bespoke solution. And it’s unportable: candidates do brilliant work in a trial, they don’t get the offer for reasons, and the signal evaporates. The next company they campfire-interview at starts them at zero.
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The last technical interview
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Comment on I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentMaybe there's another way to look at it: there are people who control spending decisions, either because it's their own money (investors) or they control a budget (legislators, managers, pension...Maybe there's another way to look at it: there are people who control spending decisions, either because it's their own money (investors) or they control a budget (legislators, managers, pension funds, etc). If they save money on labor, what do they spend it on?
Currently it seems like investors want to build data centers and managers want to pay for the computing, and I wouldn't have predicted so much enthusiasm. But what comes after that?
I don't see teaching and healthcare becoming less important.
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Comment on I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentIn a market where you expect costs to drop later, it makes some sense to wait, but you do miss out in the meantime. So, you might want to buy something cheaper that will do for now? For a laptop,...In a market where you expect costs to drop later, it makes some sense to wait, but you do miss out in the meantime. So, you might want to buy something cheaper that will do for now?
For a laptop, this might mean sticking with what you have or buying something reasonably priced like a Macbook Neo.
Similarly, I don’t see why businesses are spending money on AI like a drunken sailor now when AI’s are likely to get cheaper and better, but it still makes sense to use it more conservatively in the meantime.
But as you say, perhaps some companies need to move faster because there’s a market opportunity and competition for it. What opportunities would those be?
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Comment on I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentI don’t share your confidence that it will be over that quickly.I don’t share your confidence that it will be over that quickly.
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Comment on I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentThat’s the “API price” which is the standard rate, and it’s quite high for Anthropic. The subscriptions are heavily discounted, but have restrictions, like you have to use Claude Code. I’m...That’s the “API price” which is the standard rate, and it’s quite high for Anthropic. The subscriptions are heavily discounted, but have restrictions, like you have to use Claude Code.
I’m actually paying the standard rate via an intermediary, which is why I’ve been trying out Chinese competitors recently, GLM and DeepSeek.
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Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentFor what it’s worth, Polymarket’s terms of service were changed to prohibit it a few months ago.For what it’s worth, Polymarket’s terms of service were changed to prohibit it a few months ago.
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Comment on I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentIf that revenue trend doesn’t reverse, they’re not going to need a discount.If that revenue trend doesn’t reverse, they’re not going to need a discount.
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Comment on US Pentagon puts building blocks in place for Cuba invasion in ~society
skybrian Link ParentHow would Cuba get the drones? They would have to import them, and it’s an island. The US has an effective blockade on oil. The situation doesn’t seem much like Iran.How would Cuba get the drones? They would have to import them, and it’s an island. The US has an effective blockade on oil.
The situation doesn’t seem much like Iran.
What about when the descendants sold the property? Many houses have been sold multiple times.
The Typical U.S. Homeowner Hangs Onto Their House For 12 Years. In Los Angeles, It’s 20 Years.
Whoever owns them now has little to do with the original theft, if that’s what it was. In the suburbs, perhaps some developer divided up the land and sold it off a century ago.