skybrian's recent activity
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Comment on US battery industry cuts losses, shifts to new ventures amid electric vehicle bust in ~transport
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US battery industry cuts losses, shifts to new ventures amid electric vehicle bust
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Comment on So I fell for a phishing in ~comp
skybrian LinkMaybe look through Gmail settings for anything suspicious? For example, make sure mail isn't being forwarded anywhere.Maybe look through Gmail settings for anything suspicious? For example, make sure mail isn't being forwarded anywhere.
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Comment on China’s lab-grown diamonds emerge as unlikely winner in AI boom in ~finance
skybrian Linkhttps://archive.is/D9FC7 From the article: [...]From the article:
China’s lab-grown diamonds are emerging as a surprising beneficiary of the artificial intelligence boom, with demand climbing while they gain traction as a key component in advanced chipmaking.
Traditionally associated with jewelry, these synthetic gems are now being adopted as chip‑cooling materials, enabling denser and more powerful AI semiconductors. Momentum has accelerated after several Chinese producers reported that clients validated their diamonds as effective heat spreaders and began commercial shipments.
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Gains in this niche segment underscore investors’ search for new AI winners, as crowded hardware bets, from printed circuit boards to optical modules, have grown more expensive after a sharp rally. The surge also highlights a shift toward next‑generation cooling materials, with analysts noting that diamond is increasingly viewed as a superior alternative to traditional solutions like copper or aluminum.
“Diamond cooling is moving toward an industry consensus, with applications expected to expand across AI and data centers,” Huayuan Securities analysts wrote in a note on Monday.
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China’s lab-grown diamonds emerge as unlikely winner in AI boom
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Comment on Access to Fable and Mythos 5 cut off after US government order in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentPerhaps but I don’t really see how that works. For example, what would Uber’s management think Lyft could do with AI? They have software that works. It doesn’t seem like better software would...Perhaps but I don’t really see how that works. For example, what would Uber’s management think Lyft could do with AI? They have software that works. It doesn’t seem like better software would change things much.
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Comment on Access to Fable and Mythos 5 cut off after US government order in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentIt seems far-fetched. It would be nice if there were some good reporting about this.It seems far-fetched. It would be nice if there were some good reporting about this.
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Comment on Does generative AI have a natural limit without a major innovation? in ~comp
skybrian LinkNow that AI chatbots are typically an LLM augmented with tools, there’s no natural limit beyond what computers can do. The tools could do anything the LLM can’t do on its own. AI research is...Now that AI chatbots are typically an LLM augmented with tools, there’s no natural limit beyond what computers can do. The tools could do anything the LLM can’t do on its own.
AI research is moving rapidly and putting any bound on what researchers might come up with is very hard.
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Comment on Access to Fable and Mythos 5 cut off after US government order in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentThe opportunity to become rich explains the AI labs and AI startups. It doesn’t explain why some managers are so eager to get all their employees to run up expenses, rather than just experimenting...- Exemplary
The opportunity to become rich explains the AI labs and AI startups. It doesn’t explain why some managers are so eager to get all their employees to run up expenses, rather than just experimenting with AI.
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Comment on Four things to know about the newly approved US sunscreen ingredient in ~health
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...] [...] [...] [...] [...]From the article:
For the first time in nearly three decades, the Food and Drug Administration approved a new chemical UV filter for use in sunscreens sold in the U.S. And that has many dermatologists cheering.
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The new ingredient is called bemotrizinol, and it has several advantages over the chemical sunscreen ingredients previously available in the U.S., Rogers says.
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In general, chemical sunscreens sold in the U.S. rely on an ingredient called avobenzone to block out UVA rays, says Kelly Dobos, a cosmetic chemist who teaches at the University of Cincinnati.
But avobenzone by itself isn't photo stable, meaning its protection can start to break down rapidly when exposed to sunlight. And as avobenzone breaks down, it can release molecules that lead to skin irritation, says Alexa Friedman, a senior scientist with the nonprofit Environmental Working Group, or EWG.
By contrast, bemotrizinol offers protection against both UVA and UVB rays all on its own, and it is photo stable, so it breaks down more slowly, offering better protection, Rogers says.
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Bemotrizinol has been widely used in European and Asian sunscreens for decades. But it has taken 20 years for the FDA to approve its use in this country.
That's because in the U.S., sunscreens are regulated as over-the-counter drugs rather than cosmetics, as they're classified in Europe. That means ingredients need to undergo rigorous testing for safety and efficacy before they can be approved for use in the U.S.
"It's really expensive and time consuming," Dobos says. The European company DSM-Firmenich spent at least $18 million over more than two decades in its push to gain FDA approval for bemotrizinol.
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However, all that testing means bemotrizinol has more safety data to back it up than any other chemical sunscreen ingredient currently approved in the U.S., says Friedman of EWG.
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Until now, Rogers says, the only sunscreen ingredient available in the U.S. that offered the aforementioned advantages of bemotrizinol – photo stable, non-irritating, minimally absorbed into the skin and with good broad spectrum protection against both UVA and UVB rays – was zinc oxide.
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Bemotrizinol, on the other hand, is transparent on the skin, and because it protects against both UVA and UVB rays on its own, it doesn't have to be mixed with as many other chemical filters and stabilizers to achieve broad spectrum protection, Dobos adds. She says that should lead to more aesthetically pleasing, less greasy sunscreen formulations in the near future.
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Four things to know about the newly approved US sunscreen ingredient
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Comment on Why a 31-year-old software engineer wants to build a new neighborhood in wine country in ~finance
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...]From the article:
Zuegel, a 31-year-old software engineer raised in the heart of Silicon Valley, arrived in Cloverdale two years ago with fanciful renderings for a village with upwards of 600 new apartments and homes on the city's eastern edge. She gave it the name Esmeralda, and in this tight-knit town of just under 9,000 people, the idea stoked both excitement and alarm.
Zuegel's connections to the global center for tech innovation inspired comparisons to billionaires talking about forming their own governments and living on Mars. Zuegel has said that's not her world, but a place like Cloverdale could be. A live music festival runs on Friday nights all summer, shutting down the boulevard and drawing crowds of local families, retirees and neighbors. Banners hang on light posts celebrating active military service members.
This summer, Cloverdale will begin formally considering Zuegel's Esmeralda development proposal, an idea that has already consumed two years of public debate: Whether a long-dormant, 266-acre former industrial mill site along the Russian River should become an entirely new walkable neighborhood with housing, a hotel, an amphitheater, shops and cafes, playgrounds, parks and trails.
It's been nearly a half-century since utility poles were cut and treated with chemicals on the site. Since then, the land has undergone soil excavation, treatment injections and other forms of remediation. Various plans to transform the languishing but prime riverfront land have been taken up and abandoned, including a proposed destination resort with commercial space, homes, an equestrian center plus an 18-hole golf course. The city said yes two decades ago, but the project never moved beyond a concept.
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The Esmeralda Land Co. would build housing at a time when nearly every California city is desperate for more. It would build municipal water tanks, public trails and a park - all gifts to the city. And the project would generate an annual fiscal surplus of $2.3 million, at a minimum, according to a draft financial impact analysis they're producing for the city - to replenish Cloverdale city coffers and end an ongoing budget deficit.
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To supporters, Esmeralda is a rare chance to bring a major jolt of new energy to Cloverdale, where downtown businesses often struggle to stay open past late afternoon. To skeptics, it risks disrupting a careful balance in a community threatened by drought, wildfire and economic strain.
Esmeralda Land Co.'s plans, at least these initial concepts, are ambitious but not that radical compared to other neighborhood buildouts. About 40 miles south on Highway 101, Rohnert Park's SOMO Village has been remaking a former Hewlett-Packard manufacturing campus into a 176-acre mixed-use neighborhood. Approved for 1,750 homes, the site already has apartments, offices, a brew pub and a school, with more residential construction underway.
Sonoma County's northernmost city must plan for 335 new homes by 2031 or face state penalties. Cloverdale had already reached about 70% of its affordable housing goals at the end of 2024, according to city data, but was further behind with market rate housing.
Esmeralda would push the city far beyond that mark.
Zuegel's company has secured the option to buy the property, which comes with those entitlements approved about 20 years ago to build a resort with 235 homes, an 18-hole golf course, equestrian center plus commercial space. But they are applying to revise the plan and allow for a more connected, public-oriented enclave with a 200-room hotel, 200-unit senior housing complex, 405 market rate dwellings (a mix of houses and town homes), 22,000 square feet of retail space and 17,500 square feet of office space plus 168 acres for open space and recreation.
Zuegel said they have the financial backing of 19 individual and family investors, most from the Bay Area, including some from Sonoma County. The Esmeralda Land Co. is not disclosing their identities; Zuegel said they wish to remain anonymous.
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Why a 31-year-old software engineer wants to build a new neighborhood in wine country
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Comment on What’s new in biology: June 2026 in ~science
skybrian LinkFrom the article:From the article:
The most effective weight-loss drug so far, cancer breakthroughs, gene editing for cholesterol, ancestral CRISPR systems, and more.
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What’s new in biology: June 2026
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Comment on After new drug’s ‘unprecedented’ results for pancreatic cancer, doctors look at other uses in ~health
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...] [...]From the article:
Enthusiasm around daraxonrasib is reaching a fever pitch. In the Phase 3 trial of 500 patients, the drug was shown to double the survival time of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer, a notoriously deadly cancer: 13.2 months, on average, compared to 6.7 months for people who got chemo. On Sunday, Wainberg and his colleagues presented those results at the American Society of Clinical Oncology’s annual meeting in Chicago. The full study was simultaneously published in the New England Journal of Medicine.
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Now, the excitement is spilling over to other types of cancer. Daxaronrasib, which is taken as three pills once a day, works by targeting a mutation in the KRAS gene found across many cancers, including lung, colorectal, ovarian, endometrial and a type of bile duct cancer called cholangiocarcinoma.
“Pancreas cancer may be the first for this drug, but there will be others,” said Dr. Brian Wolpin, who also led research on daraxonrasib and directs the Hale Family Center for Pancreatic Cancer Research at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute. “Now the floodgates open.”
The Food and Drug Administration has already put the drug on a fast track toward approval for pancreatic cancer, and earlier this month said it would permit Revolution Medicines to give it to patients outside of clinical trials in an expanded access program.
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Studies for similar drugs in the pipeline are underway. Daraxonrasib is not a cure for cancer; tumors eventually figure out a way to grow again. Ideally, oncologists want an arsenal of drugs like it in line to give to patients when they develop resistance.
Revolution Medicines’ Goldsmith said the company has three other such drugs, called RAS inhibitors, in clinical trials, with a fourth due to start later this year.
Daraxonrasib’s effectiveness appears to expand beyond targeting the mutation. Overall survival was 13.2 months for all patients who got the drug, regardless of whether they had the KRAS mutation.
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By all accounts, daraxonrasib is much less toxic compared to chemo. Some patients reported vomiting and diarrhea, as well as sores in the mouth and throat. Some developed a blistering rash that looked like a bad sunburn. Former Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska, who got the drug in a clinical trial, described the rash as “nuclear” on a New York Times podcast in April.
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After new drug’s ‘unprecedented’ results for pancreatic cancer, doctors look at other uses
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Comment on Access to Fable and Mythos 5 cut off after US government order in ~tech
skybrian LinkIt's a chaotic way to do it, but if you think AI is moving too fast, it does slow them down a bit, so there's that. I find AI useful, but don't see a lot of upside in speedrunning it. What's the...It's a chaotic way to do it, but if you think AI is moving too fast, it does slow them down a bit, so there's that.
I find AI useful, but don't see a lot of upside in speedrunning it. What's the hurry?
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Comment on Elon Musk net worth estimated at $1.1 trillion in ~finance
skybrian (edited )Link ParentThe tricky thing about opportunity costs is that they depend on counterfactuals: what would have happened otherwise? It's speculative, like imagining the future. When we buy food at a grocery...The tricky thing about opportunity costs is that they depend on counterfactuals: what would have happened otherwise? It's speculative, like imagining the future.
When we buy food at a grocery store then we get to control who eats it, but when we don't, we don't normally worry that it will go to waste, because we imagine someone else might buy it. That might not be true! Maybe it's in the half-off bin and they'll throw it out tomorrow. We don't know enough to accurately predict how much waste will happen.
Similarly, choosing not to buy muni bonds doesn't normally mean that government projects go unfunded, unless nobody else would do it.
As I understand it, a liquidity trap is what happens when saving money doesn't do anything because businesses don't take out loans because they don't see profitable investment opportunities, because consumers aren't spending. It seems like this shows another way that the consequences of investment are situational. More bank deposits might sometimes result in more investment, but not in that situation. To understand the consequences, we need to know what the banks are doing and what consumers are doing.
So I don't think modeling unspent money as corresponding to unused real-world resources works very well. I think it's more like not voting. A bank account or investing in an index fund is not quite like sitting out entirely, but it's still very passive, allowing the market or bankers to control the actual investment decisions.
To make a stronger argument for not hoarding, how about if we compare with giving money to charity? There are charities that could scale up and poor people who have immediate spending needs.
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Comment on Elon Musk net worth estimated at $1.1 trillion in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentA gold horde doesn't do anything harmful if it isn't spent. That seems neutral. The question is whether what billionaires (or anyone else) does by investing is better or worse than hoarding it....A gold horde doesn't do anything harmful if it isn't spent. That seems neutral. The question is whether what billionaires (or anyone else) does by investing is better or worse than hoarding it.
Rather than saying investment is good on average and leaving it at that, I think we need to make distinctions. Some Investments are better than others.
Unrealized gains are more limited than unrestricted personal funds, but they can still be a form of power. In the form of company stock, it's one way that company founders can control what those companies do and what projects they undertake.
Musk is a pretty good example of that. Yes, some of the projects he decided to invest in seem well worth doing. Others were pretty clearly harmful.
I shared an interview arguing that founder control is often good, or at least better than alternatives like private equity or leveraged buyouts.
And Musk has been on both sides of that, with the Twitter takeover changing it from mediocre to considerably worse. Also, how did he finance it? Partially with bank loans.
In the end, I think governance of huge budgets or huge investment funds is a tough problem no matter what. I find the rush to build data centers as quickly as possible somewhat mystifying. But it's not like Congress is doing a good job of spending money either.
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