skybrian's recent activity

  1. Comment on Compression is prediction in ~comp

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article:

    From the article:

    I was reading about compression recently when I stumbled upon something crazy: that compressors and LLMs are, at their core, trying to solve the exact same problem.

    In this post, I’m going to walk us through the basics of compression to understand its deep relationship with language modeling. It’s probably going to blow your mind.

    1 vote

  3. Comment on Seedless blackberries and cherries that grow on bushes vie to be the future of food in ~food

    skybrian
    Link
    https://archive.is/CDTOy From the article: [...] [...] [...] [...]

    https://archive.is/CDTOy

    From the article:

    That’s the promise of modern genomics: introducing speed, precision, and the ability to solve multiple problems at once to the glacially slow, haphazard, one-tweak-at-a-time world of crop breeding.

    Pairwise’s triple-threat berries won’t be in US groceries before 2030—even turbo-charged breeding takes time—but they could help jump-start a new agricultural revolution, a high-tech era of designer crops optimized to benefit consumers, farmers, and the Earth. The company is also working on peaches without pits, row crops resistant to a variety of diseases, fruit and nut trees that produce their first harvest within a year or two rather than three to eight, and a slew of other novel products, often in partnership with some of the world’s largest agribusinesses.

    So far, the market for gene-edited food is almost entirely theoretical. Pairwise launched the first Crispr product in the US in 2023, a less bitter mustard green. It said it was discontinuing the product in early 2024 in favor of developing other gene-edited crops. Today, the company has received more than 50 regulatory approvals for five edited crops in nine countries, but it has only one creation for sale, a high-yielding blackberry variety available in limited quantities in Colombia.

    [...]

    But the scientists who founded Pairwise believe their product has a chance to break through because Crispr can help farmers grow healthier and more abundant food in a warming world, with significantly less deforestation, agri-chemicals, or greenhouse gas emissions. The company is already developing an enormous pipeline of new crops customized for higher yields; longer shelf life; better resistance to heat, droughts, storms, pests, or diseases; the ability to grow in different regions or seasons or soils; and various combinations of those desirable traits. It has raised more than $160 million, and ever since its short-lived experiment with non-bitter greens, it has focused on licensing its technology rather than building its own brands. It now has working partnerships with the Big Ag giants Bayer and Corteva, the food companies Mars and Sun World, and an array of universities and other research institutions.

    Just as an electric vehicle doesn’t have to look like a conventional car thanks to a small engine, Crispr has the potential to transform food and farms in unexpected ways. When I visited Pairwise headquarters in Durham in May, I got to see one of the world’s first cherry bushes. Its appearance surely would have confused George Washington, but Pairwise envisions a future where it can help growers produce more fruit with less land compared to standard cherry trees, and will also make it easier to spray and harvest with machines. Pairwise chief executive officer Tom Adams told me that ordinary-looking bush could be the first step towards a more sustainable and economical form of orchard for all kinds of fruit, because the trait that got tweaked isn’t only found in cherries.

    [...]

    GMOs are extremely expensive to develop, which is why giant agribusinesses focusing on big commodity crops largely control them. That setup has prompted widespread complaints from farmers and grocery shoppers alike that they reduce crop diversity and limit choice.

    But gene editing is much cheaper and less time-consuming, which Adams believes will make it a more accessible and democratic technology. Pairwise is working with nonprofits like the Gates Foundation and International Institute of Tropical Agriculture to develop more resilient staple crops like cowpea and cassava that can better withstand pests, diseases, and droughts. Leena Tripathi, a molecular biologist who oversees genetic innovation for IITA, is optimistic about semi-dwarf Crispr yams that will be much less labor-intensive for the African women who usually grow them.

    [...]

    So far, governments around the world have largely accepted Big Ag’s argument that gene editing is essentially an extremely sped-up version of conventional plant breeding and therefore doesn’t need particularly onerous regulation. Even the EU, which has restricted most GMO’s, moved last month to treat most gene-edited crops like regular ones. But regulators have been more cautious of Crispr livestock; the US Food and Drug Administration regulates edited animals as if they were drugs, and has required scientists to incinerate them after studying them.

    [...]

    The British startup Tropic Biosciences is bringing a non-browning banana to market, but most Crispr crops are at least a few years away. Startups will need more funding to make it to market, but those needs come as investments in ag-tech and food-tech have dropped 70 percent since peaking above $50 billion in 2021. The dip is partly due to AI sucking up all the venture capital oxygen, but it’s partly because venture capitalists feel burned by the struggles of former unicorns like plant-based burger startup Beyond Meat and indoor farming pioneer AppHarvest.

    2 votes

  5. Comment on The US is recruiting gamers to solve its air traffic controller shortage in ~transport

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: [...]

    From the article:

    For more than a decade there has been a shortage of air traffic controllers in the U.S., which has resulted in flight delays and increased risks for air travelers. And the Department of Transportation (DOT) is looking to video game enthusiasts to help fill those gaps.

    The DOT first launched a program in 2025 to recruit gamers. Now Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is extolling the success of that program on social media.

    Reaching out to gamers, he wrote on X, has resulted in the DOT meeting 94% of its hiring goal for new controllers, a record-setting pace. More than 2,000 people have been hired, he said, with candidates “reaching the Academy quicker than any class before them.”

    To be clear, that doesn’t mean those gamers are already guiding actual aircraft through takeoff and landing. Even with the streamlined hiring process the DOT has enacted, it takes two years for a trainee to complete the air traffic controller training program. And roughly one in three trainees drops out before completing the program.

    Still, gamers remain an area of interest for the DOT as it looks to fill empty seats. In a past interview, Duffy said “they problem solve. They’re spatially aware. They do multiple things at the same time.”

    [...]

    While Duffy celebrated reaching 94% of the hiring goal, it’s worth noting that the FAA, in May, cut its staffing target for air traffic controllers from 14,633 to 12,563. It said, at the time, that modernized staffing models were behind the change. But the agency actually increased the amount of time employees spent managing air traffic, to avoid the overtime bills the FAA ran up in 2024, which totaled approximately $200 million.

    1 vote

  7. Comment on What happened: OpenAI and Hugging Face in ~comp

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    I’ve read some of his previous posts and yeah they are a bit much. This one is a decent attempt at writing shorter.

    I’ve read some of his previous posts and yeah they are a bit much. This one is a decent attempt at writing shorter.

    2 votes

  8. Comment on Suggestion for a new label: "Misinformation" in ~tildes

    skybrian
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    Yes, saying that people can quit any time does sound like a suggestion that people should quit over this, and that does seem kinda rude. It definitely isn't my intention to say anyone in...

    Yes, saying that people can quit any time does sound like a suggestion that people should quit over this, and that does seem kinda rude. It definitely isn't my intention to say anyone in particular or any group of users should quit. And we should try to fix things for @TaylorSwiftsPickles. Though they did say they were "micro-annoyed," so I hope it isn't too serious :)

    I still want to push back on treating Tildes as overly important. I'm out of touch, but I'd be shocked if Tildes were in the top ten list of important forums for any community. Surely there must be lots of other LGBT or black or Jewish or whatever community websites out there?

    So I'm not really buying the notion that there are few alternatives. But we can still care about Tildes. Maybe Tildes is in the top five for some of us personally? After all we keep hanging out here. That's a different kind of meaningfulness, though.

    Also, it seems like we are talking around our problems. "Minority" is vague (which minority?) and so is "misinformation" (what kind of posts do you hate seeing?)

    I do understand the impulse to vague-post, since people often don't take feedback well, and giving specific examples often threatens to derail the conversation. But the problem is, vague complaints are vague. Anyone could be imagining they're part of the problem and that might be due to their own insecurities. (The other topic you linked to has some people wondering if they're the problem.)

    I'm thinking about how Hacker News downvotes work. A downvote is specific in one way (it's a particular post) and super vague in a different way, so people ask "why the downvote?" On the other hand, what's to be done? You just grumble and move on. It takes a lot less time than replies.

    A label is slightly more specific, but still leaves open a lot of questions. The exemplary tag at least lets people say a few words more about what they liked.

    If we could change Tildes, a "misinformation" label that doesn't actually appear on the post would be a way to collect feedback without affecting the conversation. It could go to a report somewhere... seen by who, the admin? And what do they do about it?

    Since we can't change Tildes itself, an anonymous survey about what sort of posts people consider to be misinformation might be another way to do it.

    9 votes

  9. Comment on Suggestion for a new label: "Misinformation" in ~tildes

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    I will quite readily admit to being out of touch and perhaps I'm missing some implications, but I'm not sure what you're getting at. Maybe part of the issue is blurring the consequences of...

    I will quite readily admit to being out of touch and perhaps I'm missing some implications, but I'm not sure what you're getting at.

    Maybe part of the issue is blurring the consequences of misinformation on social media in general (which can be very serious) versus what happens on Tildes?

    If you mean Tildes in particular: many of us like Tildes, but is it essential infrastructure for anyone? It seems like anyone, regardless of privilege, could quit Tildes, or just decide to take a break from it for a while, and people often do?

    Or if you mean, spreading misinformation on Tildes could have harmful effects beyond Tildes, sure it doesn't help, but I don't think we're very influential compared to other, much larger social media websites. Or even compared to individual bloggers or influencers.

    Or perhaps you mean that people on Tildes who actually read articles or comments here will be misled by misinformation? I think a lot of what we discuss isn't "news you can use" that if it's wrong could be dangerous from a personal, practical standpoint. But if it is, then someone should reply explaining why, and perhaps it will be retracted.

    Or maybe something else I completely missed. What implications do you mean?

    6 votes

  10. Comment on Suggestion for a new label: "Misinformation" in ~tildes

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Yes, the talk page on Wikipedia is a good example. But we're not maintaining a wiki. Are we maintaining a link collection? Arguably so with the tagging system. An issue with doing that here is...

    Yes, the talk page on Wikipedia is a good example. But we're not maintaining a wiki. Are we maintaining a link collection? Arguably so with the tagging system.

    An issue with doing that here is that the Tildes software is effectively frozen. So, unlike in Tildes' early days, discussing ways to improve the software seems pointless? We can only do things that don't require any software changes, like introducing a new topic tag.

    But I am rather interested in what might be done to improve things, which is partial motivation for building my own personal link-sharing website. There are no community features now, but perhaps I'll get to that eventually. In the meantime, it serves as a staging area and archive for the links I post to Tildes, along with other links I choose not to share here.

    It's tempting to think that if I built my own community software, I could do it properly, learning from Tildes and trying new experiments. But I'm wary of it because I don't want Deimos's job, and I'm not sure I'd be able to build a community anyway. It might just be tumbleweeds? Only a few people follow me in Bluesky, etc.

    Another idea I toy with is releasing the software and helping people set up their own community websites. I think the old blogging ecosystem was pretty good in some ways. But I'm not sure anyone would go for that either? And there is plenty of other blogging software for people to use.

    So, I just build for myself. At least I know I'll use it.

    Regarding shrugging and moving on, this is not possible for social media in general, but it seems very feasible for Tildes? At the extreme, people can just leave and probably nobody will follow.

    What's really not possible is to participate by posting topics or comments without getting replies in disagreement. Really heated discussion will get shut down, but in general, you are going to get replies.

    Which is why on my own website, I'm still thinking about whether or how to implement replies at all. I'd like to get feedback, but only certain kinds.

    3 votes

  11. Comment on Suggestion for a new label: "Misinformation" in ~tildes

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    I think it’s a good point that replies often just feed the fire. That’s an argument for doing something else.

    I think it’s a good point that replies often just feed the fire. That’s an argument for doing something else.

    1 vote

  12. Comment on Suggestion for a new label: "Misinformation" in ~tildes

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    I would like to see sources too and try to provide evidence myself. But asking often annoys people since you’re giving them homework, particularly if you do it in a low-effort way like “citation...

    I would like to see sources too and try to provide evidence myself. But asking often annoys people since you’re giving them homework, particularly if you do it in a low-effort way like “citation needed.” So instead I might go with something like “where did you learn that?”

    3 votes

  13. Comment on Suggestion for a new label: "Misinformation" in ~tildes

    skybrian
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    We could start putting a “misinformation” tag on topics any time with no software changes, but I doubt anyone with the ability to tag other people’s topics wants to do that? It seems too vague and...

    We could start putting a “misinformation” tag on topics any time with no software changes, but I doubt anyone with the ability to tag other people’s topics wants to do that? It seems too vague and subjective to apply consistently. Instead we have tags like “politics.”

    The closest I’ll go is using an “opinion” tag for any kind of persuasive essay. That’s what I do on my own website.

    I think the difference is, can the tag also apply to “good” topics or is it always negative like “misinformation” would be? An opinion piece or an article about politics can be good and these tags could be self-applied.

    2 votes

  14. Comment on Suggestion for a new label: "Misinformation" in ~tildes

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    I think we should distinguish between the kind of moderation that Deimos does (freezing topics, banning people, etc) and the sort of things users do. Deimos is not moderating by replying, like I’m...

    I think we should distinguish between the kind of moderation that Deimos does (freezing topics, banning people, etc) and the sort of things users do. Deimos is not moderating by replying, like I’m replying to you right now. He’s not arguing. He’s not trying to convince anyone. There is no “trial.”

    By contrast, it’s hard to see how users can get to any sort of consensus about what to do without discussing things we disagree about. And also, we’re unlikely to achieve consensus by discussing things either. I often give in to the temptation to reply and sometimes it’s because I don’t want to see “misinformation” (as I see it) go unopposed. But I try to remember that it doesn’t actually achieve much. Caring too much that people post things you disagree strongly about can ruin your whole day.

    Although, I suppose labels and upvotes are different. If someone puts a label on something you can’t really do anything about it, so we might gripe about it a bit, but we don’t really argue.

    The tag should have nothing to do with the subjective.

    This seems optimistic. Many facts are not simple. They often take decades of scientific research to establish, and sometimes consensus is never achieved. We often take consensus on facts for granted when we’re “standing on the shoulders of giants” as the phrase goes.

    26 votes

  15. Comment on Sanity check - always-on machine + laptop with remote desktop in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link
    For programming (but not games), Linux VM’s in the cloud are quite a nice alternative. I’m very happy with exe.dev’s $20/month plan. At least, for web development.

    For programming (but not games), Linux VM’s in the cloud are quite a nice alternative. I’m very happy with exe.dev’s $20/month plan. At least, for web development.

    2 votes

  16. Comment on Suggestion for a new label: "Misinformation" in ~tildes

    skybrian
    (edited )
    Link
    I don’t think it would work. The exemplary tag is often misused to mean “I strongly agree” and this would be worse. The closest thing I’ve seen that actually does seems to work is (was?) Twitter’s...
    • Exemplary

    I don’t think it would work. The exemplary tag is often misused to mean “I strongly agree” and this would be worse. The closest thing I’ve seen that actually does seems to work is (was?) Twitter’s community notes system, and we don’t have the scale for that.

    We sometimes have heated conversations that about what counts as misinformation and having a “trial” like that is no fun for anyone. The trouble is posting misinformation is easy (basically just shitposting), but to refute it, you need to research something that you probably don’t care to spend time on.

    Also, a common problem is overconfident takes - that is, posting a strongly-held opinion about something as fact that nobody could really know for sure. So, then, if you argue against it, if you’re not careful then you end up seemingly taking the other side or “just asking questions.”

    Our conversations aren’t important enough to be worth the angst of policing them.

    63 votes

  17. Comment on Incentives are for losers in ~society

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article:

    From the article:

    We can all agree: the incentives are bad. Everywhere you look, people are being rewarded for doing the wrong thing. This has become the go-to diagnosis for every problem, from climate change to political polarization to scientific malfeasance—“sorry pal, you’ve got a bad case of the incentives.”

    I don’t disagree with this analysis, exactly. Who could? It’s basically tautological. “People do bad things because they are encouraged and rewarded for doing bad things.” Well, why else would you do them?

    My real gripe with this line of thinking is it implies that incentives should be obeyed, that it is normal or even noble to do so, and that is perhaps impossible to do otherwise. How could you be expected to break a rule, forego a promotion, or give up decimal of your grade point average, for the sake of—what? Doing the right thing?

    5 votes

  19. Comment on A timeline of the OpenAI accidental attack against Hugging Face in ~comp

    skybrian
    Link
    And Simon Willison further comments: I guess OpenAI wanted to catch up with Mythos? This seems sorta like when anti-virus companies study computer viruses. You really don't want it to get out of...

    And Simon Willison further comments:

    The more I think about this the more I suspect that the fact this happened while training a new model is key to understanding what went wrong.

    In RLVR - Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards - you set the model a goal and have it take any steps necessary to achieve that goal.

    Clearly one aspect of OpenAI's training here is to RLVR their models for cybersecurity tasks. Just like pre-training benefits from dumping in vast sources of knowledge, the more tasks you can feed into RLVR the more of a general purpose capable model you get at the end.

    This also helps explain why the models had nothing to cause them to hold back. Those safety behaviors are added much later in the process.

    AND it explains (but does not excuse) why monitoring was so lax. If you're training a new model like this you presumably set it thousands of tasks like this in parallel. I can see how you might miss that a tiny subset of your training agents have started leaving each other messages in filenames on your packaging server.

    I guess OpenAI wanted to catch up with Mythos? This seems sorta like when anti-virus companies study computer viruses. You really don't want it to get out of the lab. And if you're doing gain-of-function research, well...

    Training an AI to do cybersecurity tasks seems even more high-risk than studying computer viruses.

    5 votes

  20. Comment on A timeline of the OpenAI accidental attack against Hugging Face in ~comp

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: And maybe I shouldn’t quote the whole thing…

    From the article:

    • May 7: OpenAI starts a new training run for an experimental, unreleased model. (Did they mean an evaluation run? No, at 10:14 they clarify “we kick off a new reinforcement learning run to train a next generation frontier model”, and they later mention a “reward signal to judge how well they’re doing”, so this really was about training a new model, not evaluating one that was already trained.)

    • May 8: An agent is accidentally given an impossible task involving a Google Drive link despite no internet access. It tries attacking the Artifactory packaging service, fails, but discovers it can write files into Artifactory.

    • A few days later: A different agent gets stuck on a task because a key file was accidentally omitted. It tries to “reach out to another agent” by writing a note into Artifactory asking if anyone has the file.

    • Following days: More agents discover this new informal message board while browsing Artifactory’s file listings, and start reading and writing messages.

    • May 26: Agents successfully execute an SSRF attack on Artifactory for the first time, gaining indirect internet access by having Artifactory fetch external content for them.

    • June 11: OpenAI start training a new “highly persistent” experimental model. It has access to Artifactory and can benefit from the messages left by privous models.

    • June 26: Agents find and exploit a zero-day RCE on Artifactory (via a legacy token-refresh endpoint flaw). They use an administrative token to install a Groovy plugin that lets them execute commands.

    • July 4: The resulting agent activity overloads Artifactory and causes an outage. OpenAI revokes the compromised credentials, deletes the messages, patches the zero-day, and reports the vulnerability to the vendor.

    • July 8: Agents find a new way to communicate via an unauthenticated WebDAV endpoint, using directory names in Artifactory’s remote cache.

    And maybe I shouldn’t quote the whole thing…

    8 votes