skybrian's recent activity
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Comment on The boy that cried Mythos in ~comp
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Comment on The boy that cried Mythos in ~comp
skybrian (edited )Link ParentIt’s certainly a rather odd situation that these companies put out so many different kinds of warnings about their products, but dismissing it as “marketing” is rather cynical. In a way it’s the...It’s certainly a rather odd situation that these companies put out so many different kinds of warnings about their products, but dismissing it as “marketing” is rather cynical.
In a way it’s the opposite of marketing because it’s poisoning the well. Anti-AI sentiment among the general public is on the rise and the companies themselves are feeding it. It’s as if tobacco companies in the 1950’s were warning that their product causes cancer, or early car companies were predicting traffic jams and smog and urban sprawl. (To be clear, this is an imperfect analogy - there are ways to use AI that aren’t particularly harmful.)
It’s also a double bind where the cynics get to be cynical either way. If a company warned about safety then it’s fear-mongering and if they didn’t warn about it then it would be seen as covering up safety issues they knew about, like what the tobacco companies actually were doing in the 1950’s. Or more recently, Facebook tends to downplay safety concerns about social media, and look where that ended up.
But more fundamentally, the issue isn’t whether they warn or don’t warn, it’s that the product is being used in harmful ways and the public knows it. A company putting out a harmful product is going to be unpopular and warnings don’t help much. It’s like, if it’s so bad why are you selling it then? Warning people is good, but it doesn’t change the product.
I think it’s sensible to encourage companies to delay or cancel product releases if they seem dangerous or they have concerns about how it will be used. The idea that you have to prove the product is harmful to justify not releasing it is backwards. Instead you have to be sure it’s safe, or safe enough. So for example, I’m happy that Waymo has taken their time scaling up deployment of driverless cars. If the AI companies started being more cautious, that would probably be for the best. Unfortunately it’s effectively an arms race so it’s hard to slow it down.
It’s kind of weird to see a company being attacked for being too cautious.
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Comment on The boy that cried Mythos in ~comp
skybrian Link ParentThese supposed proofs that they're lying look to me more like complaints that Anthropic didn't publish detailed information. The "system card" is not a scientific paper and doesn't include the...These supposed proofs that they're lying look to me more like complaints that Anthropic didn't publish detailed information. The "system card" is not a scientific paper and doesn't include the data you'd need to prove things to a skeptic. It's unfortunate that we're taking their word on some things, but we'll just have to wait.
The 90-day public report does not exist yet, so I’m perhaps jumping ahead [...]
Yes, he is.
We then find a total of 250 runs: five trials per category, fifty categories. Wait, what? Who set up this test? AFL does that many mutation cases in a millisecond.
That's just dumb, fuzzing is not the same kind of test. They're different tools.
Anthropic is admitting, in their own footnote, that Sonnet 4.6 has the same triage ability as Mythos. Sonnet sees the same two “obvious” bugs. It just cannot close the exploitation step. Mythos’s entire frontier advantage over the prior model is therefore bupkis
"Just" is doing a lot of work there. Seems like a model that can find an exploit is more dangerous to release to the public than one that can find a bug?
I could go on, but this guy obviously has an axe to grind. He's going to find what he's looking for whether it's warranted or not.
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Comment on ‘It’s shameful’: New York’s elite lash out at Zohran Mamdani’s second-home tax in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentThey had expectations about how much it would cost them. Now, there's an tax increase targeted specifically at them, so it will cost more. I don't think it's that hard to understand why some might...They had expectations about how much it would cost them. Now, there's an tax increase targeted specifically at them, so it will cost more. I don't think it's that hard to understand why some might think that's unfair? NYC is changing the deal, and the politics around it are such that it seems punitive. (Of course, that's why a lot of other people like it.)
New buyers will know going in what it costs.
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Comment on The boy that cried Mythos in ~comp
skybrian LinkThe people who want to be dismissive are going to find reasons, but the security experts I follow are taking the AI-based security threat very seriously. Some guy wants to make people hate...The people who want to be dismissive are going to find reasons, but the security experts I follow are taking the AI-based security threat very seriously.
Some guy wants to make people hate Anthropic and I don't really see the point of writing a long takedown about it. I don't think we need to take a position on how much better Mythos is, because it doesn't really matter. There are more high-quality security bugs being found through a variety of AI-enabled means. The people who maintain important systems have a lot more work to do lately.
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Comment on The boy that cried Mythos in ~comp
skybrian Link ParentFrom OpenAI's 2019 announcement about GPT-2: Seems to me that holds up well?From OpenAI's 2019 announcement about GPT-2:
These findings, combined with earlier results on synthetic imagery, audio, and video, imply that technologies are reducing the cost of generating fake content and waging disinformation campaigns. The public at large will need to become more skeptical of text they find online, just as the “deep fakes(opens in a new window)” phenomenon calls for more skepticism about images.
Today, malicious actors—some of which are political in nature—have already begun to target the shared online commons, using things like(opens in a new window) “robotic tools, fake accounts and dedicated teams to troll individuals with hateful commentary or smears that make them afraid to speak, or difficult to be heard or believed.”
Seems to me that holds up well?
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Comment on “Rediscovering” the operating system (AKA: the desktop is the killer app) in ~tech
skybrian LinkThis sounds more like rediscovering filesystems. I think naming and arranging files in folders is something a lot of people have gotten away from and don't want to go back to. An app could do that...This sounds more like rediscovering filesystems. I think naming and arranging files in folders is something a lot of people have gotten away from and don't want to go back to. An app could do that for you, though, like iTunes does.
The files are still there, unless it's a Sqlite database or something like that.
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Comment on Adversaries leverage AI for vulnerability exploitation, augmented operations, and initial access in ~comp
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...]From the article:
- Vulnerability Discovery and Exploit Generation: For the first time, GTIG has identified a threat actor using a zero-day exploit that we believe was developed with AI. The criminal threat actor planned to use it in a mass exploitation event but our proactive counter discovery may have prevented its use. Threat actors associated with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) have also demonstrated significant interest in capitalizing on AI for vulnerability discovery.
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AI-Augmented Research and IO: Adversaries continue to leverage AI as a high speed research assistant for attack lifecycle support, while shifting toward agentic workflows to operationalize autonomous attack frameworks. In information operations (IO) campaigns, these tools facilitate the fabrication of digital consensus by generating synthetic media and deepfake content at scale, exemplified by the pro-Russia IO campaign “Operation Overload.”
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Obfuscated LLM Access: Threat actors now pursue anonymized, premium tier access to models through professionalized middleware and automated registration pipelines to illicitly bypass usage limits. This infrastructure enables large scale misuse of services while subsidizing operations through trial abuse and programmatic account cycling.
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The compromise of LiteLLM, an AI gateway utility for integrating multiple LLM providers is noteworthy. It highlights the expanding attack surface of AI platforms and the potential for impact across the software supply chain. Given the package's widespread use, this incident could lead to considerable exposure of AI API secrets from affected victims, which could be used to gain further access to systems for traditional intrusion operations.
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Adversaries leverage AI for vulnerability exploitation, augmented operations, and initial access
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Comment on ‘It’s shameful’: New York’s elite lash out at Zohran Mamdani’s second-home tax in ~finance
skybrian (edited )Link ParentThanks! I've read before about a lot of these techniques. It's hard to tell from the outside if cryptocurrency is genuinely popular in Argentina or it it's just the crypto boosters talking it up.Thanks! I've read before about a lot of these techniques. It's hard to tell from the outside if cryptocurrency is genuinely popular in Argentina or it it's just the crypto boosters talking it up.
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Comment on ‘It’s shameful’: New York’s elite lash out at Zohran Mamdani’s second-home tax in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentOn the other hand, sometimes taxes transfer money to some other person, such as for pensions. Since they spend it on themselves, there's no particular reason to believe it will be less efficient....On the other hand, sometimes taxes transfer money to some other person, such as for pensions. Since they spend it on themselves, there's no particular reason to believe it will be less efficient.
But I also like the unorthodox theory that the purpose of taxes is to reduce spending and prevent inflation. After all, a central government can print money and spend it. They don't actually need the money. But then total spending would be too much, so spending by the private sector must be reduced.
This doesn't apply for NYC since they aren't the central government.
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Comment on ‘It’s shameful’: New York’s elite lash out at Zohran Mamdani’s second-home tax in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentSkepticism about the government certainly makes sense coming from someone in Argentina. How do people save money there in your experience? (Just curious.)Skepticism about the government certainly makes sense coming from someone in Argentina.
How do people save money there in your experience? (Just curious.)
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Comment on ‘It’s shameful’: New York’s elite lash out at Zohran Mamdani’s second-home tax in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentUh, there's plenty of it in New York City, and more being built all the time. Though, apparently not enough? Anyway, NYC is not at all typical for the US.let developers build high density housing
Uh, there's plenty of it in New York City, and more being built all the time. Though, apparently not enough? Anyway, NYC is not at all typical for the US.
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Comment on ‘It’s shameful’: New York’s elite lash out at Zohran Mamdani’s second-home tax in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentSure, you could think about it that way, but I suspect it’s entirely disconnected from how people think about property taxes when they are complaining that their taxes are too high? They aren’t...Sure, you could think about it that way, but I suspect it’s entirely disconnected from how people think about property taxes when they are complaining that their taxes are too high? They aren’t thinking about incentives or where the money goes just because that’s how you think about it.
It seems like this discussion lacks evidence about how people really think.
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Comment on ‘It’s shameful’: New York’s elite lash out at Zohran Mamdani’s second-home tax in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentI think that's going a little far. If you go to a fancy restaurant then you expect it to be "worth it." If it's not then I can see being kinda annoyed by it. If they add some extra fee for no...I think that's going a little far. If you go to a fancy restaurant then you expect it to be "worth it." If it's not then I can see being kinda annoyed by it. If they add some extra fee for no reason then you're probably kinda pissed, right? If you buy a car and it's a lemon then you expect them to fix it.
It's a more extreme version of customer entitlement, which is fundamentally about not getting the deal you thought you were getting, which is based on expectations that may be out of wack. People don't stop feeling that way if they have money even though it really doesn't matter anymore.
And I think the answer is, okay, you can be someone else's customer.
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Comment on ‘It’s shameful’: New York’s elite lash out at Zohran Mamdani’s second-home tax in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentNot sure about that. Like other real estate, it could be treated as an investment, and some could decide to sell if they don't have many other ties. Enough people might sell that prices go down a...Not sure about that. Like other real estate, it could be treated as an investment, and some could decide to sell if they don't have many other ties.
Enough people might sell that prices go down a bit. One would expect a drop in asset prices when maintenance costs are higher. It's similar to how raising interest rates put a damper on the real estate market. But I don't think New York City needs to worry about that?
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Comment on Goldman Sachs flags Amazon and Alphabet for inflating S&P 500 earnings growth figures in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentYes, their VC arm has been investments in other firms for maybe a couple of decades, but often in much smaller companies. And of course there are the "other bets" like Waymo, which are spinoffs...Yes, their VC arm has been investments in other firms for maybe a couple of decades, but often in much smaller companies. And of course there are the "other bets" like Waymo, which are spinoffs from Google's research devision. But it was fairly small compared to Google's own revenue. This seems more substantial.
An old argument against conglomerates was that the shareholders could invest in other companies themselves if that's what they wanted to do. But that's not true for large, private companies like Anthropic. Startups are staying private longer and growing larger before they go public.
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Comment on A Dialogue on Freedom in ~humanities
skybrian (edited )LinkThe bit about who "owns all the land" really did matter when most people were peasant farmers who barely made a living and were constrained by not having enough land (See here.) The abundance of...The bit about who "owns all the land" really did matter when most people were peasant farmers who barely made a living and were constrained by not having enough land (See here.) The abundance of land for settlers farming in the US (putting them into conflict with Native Americans) was a very big deal.
Nowadays things seem rather different. Sustenance farming isn't a thing in the US or Europe. Farms are businesses. In the US, many rural areas have emptied out. Agricultural land in some places has gone back to forest. There are cities with abandoned buildings downtown because they're losing population.
So it's mostly not about who owns "all the land" anymore. It's about housing in desirable areas, and more can be created by building taller buildings. If it's allowed.
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Comment on Aurora: A leverage-aware optimizer for rectangular matrices in ~comp
skybrian Link ParentYeah, I'm thinking more short-term. I imagine some new ideas published within the last few months or so haven't made it to production yet, so we're not seeing the benefit yet.Yeah, I'm thinking more short-term. I imagine some new ideas published within the last few months or so haven't made it to production yet, so we're not seeing the benefit yet.
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Comment on Aurora: A leverage-aware optimizer for rectangular matrices in ~comp
skybrian LinkFor people not actually working on LLM's, I think the takeaway is that we can expect AI researchers to keep finding new ways to increase performance, because current algorithms are far from...For people not actually working on LLM's, I think the takeaway is that we can expect AI researchers to keep finding new ways to increase performance, because current algorithms are far from optimal. Also, I imagine there are other good ideas already discovered that haven't made their way into popular LLM's yet?
Could you share examples of prompts you use? I'm curious about what it would find on my hobby projects.