skybrian's recent activity

  1. Comment on Polymarket Is Struggling With a $59 Million Bet About Itself in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link
    https://archive.is/7KrnB From the article: ... ...

    https://archive.is/7KrnB

    From the article:

    Traders bet more than $59 million on whether Polymarket would launch its US platform before the end of the year. But a question meant to produce a simple yes-or-no answer has exposed a deeper problem: prediction markets built to resolve uncertainty may struggle with it themselves.

    ...

    Polymarket, which uses cryptocurrencies to process bets, outsources disputes to holders of the UMA token. That has proven controversial, with traders burned in the past over the resolution of questions such as whether Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had worn a suit.

    Critics say the dispute mechanism can favor large token holders and influential voices. Anyone can post in the UMA chatroom where votes are debated, for example, and UMA’s operator Risk Labs warns in a disclaimer that “some commenters may attempt to influence vote outcomes for their own profit.” Risk Labs did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    ...

    In the contract tied to whether Polymarket would launch in the US this year, traders were bound by terms laid out when it first opened to bets in late July, a day after the platform announced it had acquired a US regulated venue. The rules stated that the market would resolve in favor of the launch having occurred if a real-money trade was publicly placed on the regulated platform by the end of 2025.

    A clear answer to that question remained elusive on Friday. A website for Polymarket’s US venue stated that the company is “working hard to get the US platform ready for launch.” Even so, UMA holders delivered their own verdict, with more than 90% of tokens allocated to the vote backing a “yes” resolution. All the while, anonymous complaints about the process were posted to Polymarket’s website and UMA’s chatroom.

    The back-and-forth attracted even more betting, with overall volume rising roughly 90% over the past day as traders spotted an opportunity to buy in before a final decision arrived. One Polymarket user had started loading up on “no” shares on Thursday, seemingly convinced the vote would resolve in their favor. By the time it concluded, they owned the most “no” shares in the market and faced a loss of more than $23,000.

    When disputed markets are particularly contentious, Polymarket can choose to step in and provide a clarification of the rules. In this instance, it kept quiet.

    3 votes

  3. Comment on AI agents find $4.6M in blockchain smart contract exploits in ~tech

    skybrian
    (edited )
    Link
    From the article: ... ... For a new vulnerability they discovered: Matt Levine has comments: But it seems like anyone writing smart contracts ought to be setting up automatic AI security reviews...

    From the article:

    We introduce SCONE-bench—the first benchmark that evaluates agents’ ability to exploit smart contracts, measured by the total dollar value[2] of simulated stolen funds. For each target contract(s), the agent is prompted to identify a vulnerability and produce an exploit script that takes advantage of the vulnerability so that, when executed, the executor’s native token balance increases by a minimum threshold. Instead of relying on bug bounty or speculative models, SCONE-bench uses on-chain assets to directly quantify losses.

    ...

    First, we evaluated 10 models[3] across all 405 benchmark problems. Collectively, these models produced turnkey exploits for 207 (51.11%) of these problems, yielding $550.1 million in simulated stolen funds.[4]

    Second, to control for potential data contamination, we evaluated the same 10 models on 34 problems that were exploited after March 1, 2025 (these models’ latest knowledge cutoff). Collectively, Opus 4.5, Sonnet 4.5, and GPT-5 produced exploits for 19 of these problems (55.8%), yielding a maximum of $4.6 million in simulated stolen funds.[5] The top performing model, Opus 4.5, successfully exploited 17 of these problems (50%), corresponding to $4.5 million in simulated stolen funds—an estimate of how much these AI agents could have stolen had they been pointed to these smart contracts throughout 2025.[6]

    Third, to assess our agent’s ability to uncover completely novel zero-day exploits, we evaluated the Sonnet 4.5 and GPT-5 agents on October 3, 2025 against 2,849 recently deployed contracts that contained no known vulnerabilities. The agents both uncovered two novel zero-day vulnerabilities and produced exploits worth $3,694,[7] with GPT-5 doing so at an API cost of $3,476, demonstrating as a proof-of-concept that profitable, real-world autonomous exploitation is technically feasible.

    ...

    Over the last year, frontier models' exploit revenue on the 2025 problems doubled roughly every 1.3 months (Figure 1). We attribute the increase in total exploit revenue to improvements in agentic capabilities like tool use, error recovery, and long-horizon task execution. Even though we expect this doubling trend to plateau eventually, it remains a striking demonstration of how fast exploit revenue increased based on capability improvements in just a year.

    For a new vulnerability they discovered:

    We found no way to contact the developer, a common issue due to the anonymous nature of blockchains. Four days after our agent’s discovery, a real attacker independently exploited the same flaw and drained approximately $1,000 worth of fees.

    Matt Levine has comments:

    I love “produced exploits worth $3,694 … at an API cost of $3,476.” That is: It costs money to make a superintelligent computer think; the more deeply it thinks, the more money it costs. There is some efficient frontier: If the computer has to think $10,000 worth of thoughts to steal $5,000 worth of crypto, it’s not worth it. Here, charmingly, the computer thought just deeply enough to steal more money than its compute costs. For one thing, that suggests that there are other crypto exploits that are too complicated for this research project, but that a more intense AI effort could find.

    For another thing, it feels like just a pleasing bit of self-awareness on the AI’s part. Who among us has not sat down to some task thinking “this will be quick and useful,” only to find out that it took twice as long as we expected and accomplished nothing? Or put off some task thinking it would be laborious and useless, only to eventually do it quickly with great results? The AI hit the efficient frontier exactly; nice work!

    But it seems like anyone writing smart contracts ought to be setting up automatic AI security reviews as part of their release process, and that would certainly make more money for the AI firms.

    2 votes

  5. Comment on The cold shoulder in ~society

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article:

    From the article:

    Before 2006, the Takeover Panel had no statutory authority at all, but nevertheless it was extremely feared and people for the most part did what they were told by it, even if they thought the decision which had gone against them was very unfair. Because the Takeover Panel had the ultimate sanction at its disposal – the “cold shoulder”.

    The cold-shoulder order was very infrequently used indeed, because people were so terrified of it. It simply involved publishing a notice that a particular person or firm was to be cold-shouldered. And the understanding was that if you worked with or for someone subject to the cold-shoulder, you would be cold-shouldered yourself. Because everyone knew that the big and important banks which formed the backbone of the Panel would always respect the cold-shoulder, it had a sort of viral property; nobody who relied on being able to work with Barclays would touch anyone who was cold-shouldered, so nobody who relied on being able to work with one of those firms would dare to, and so on; basically, anyone who got cold-shouldered would be completely shut out of the financial industry.

    As I noted above, this was put on statutory ground in 2006, and now it’s just an FCA regulation that licensed professionals have to respect the cold shoulder. But this wasn’t because the viral version wasn’t working, far from it. The legislation was just made necessary by a European Directive, which was passed because other financial centres hadn’t been able to make similar arrangements work.

    1 vote

  7. Comment on The unlikely afterlife of big box stores in ~finance

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: … Huh. Maybe Wal Mart is giving them a good deal because they don’t want to lease to stronger competition?

    From the article:

    In the past, George operated five other stores in abandoned Wal-Mart buildings. In all of his dealings with Wal Mart, a third party owned the buildings, and Wal-Mart owned the lease on the structures. He typically rents the lease from Wal-Mart until it runs out, when control of the building defaults to the real estate company who was managing the lease. Then the Peddler’s Mall moves on. George feels as if he has had great luck with Wal-Mart, and says that he has fallen into a great fortune. He reports that Wal-Mart makes the subleasing as “soft as they possibly can, and they are not making any money on my subleases.”

    …

    George, who has rented 10 empty Wal-Mart stores over the years, says that in eight of his experiences, Wal-Mart has moved directly across the street from the store they are abandoning. “It is perfect when Wal-Mart moves in right across the street. That is what I am always hoping for,” says George. Thompson tells me, “This is where people go before they go to the Wal-Mart across the street. Sometimes you can find the same items for sale here that are cheaper than they are across the street at Wal-Mart. Might as well check to see.”

    Huh. Maybe Wal Mart is giving them a good deal because they don’t want to lease to stronger competition?

    3 votes

  8. Comment on RAM is so expensive, Samsung won’t even sell it to Samsung in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    I don’t see that happening for datacenters that have gone online. Maybe for the ones they stopped work on while under construction. Not by the big tech firms though; they think long-term and will...

    I don’t see that happening for datacenters that have gone online. Maybe for the ones they stopped work on while under construction. Not by the big tech firms though; they think long-term and will just delay construction.

    I’m reminded of Google’s downtown San Jose campus: approved in 2021, construction paused in 2023. Perhaps they will still build it someday?

  9. Comment on 'It’s time to talk about my cat. To which you might be saying, “Chuck, I didn’t know you had a cat!” and I’d respond with, “I didn’t know I had a cat either.”' in ~tech

    skybrian
    (edited )
    Link
    It’s funny now, but won’t be when AI-driven search gets good at generating mostly-accurate dossiers about people from everything published about them on the Internet. Imagine Wikipedia, but with...

    It’s funny now, but won’t be when AI-driven search gets good at generating mostly-accurate dossiers about people from everything published about them on the Internet. Imagine Wikipedia, but with entries for everyone.

    I see nothing preventing it from happening within a year or two. The major US tech firms will probably nerf it, but what about their Chinese competition?

    1 vote

  10. Comment on Why are 38 percent of Stanford students saying they're disabled? in ~life

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Yes, we don’t know. I’ve since edited my comment to soften it, because it’s more of a “huh, what’s going on here” than proof of anything in particular.

    Yes, we don’t know. I’ve since edited my comment to soften it, because it’s more of a “huh, what’s going on here” than proof of anything in particular.

    1 vote

  11. Comment on Do you feel like you’ve had many lives so far? Why, why not? Which? in ~life

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    That sounds amazing. Thanks for sharing!

    That sounds amazing. Thanks for sharing!

    1 vote

  12. Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of November 17 in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    US supreme court approves redrawn Texas congressional maps …

    US supreme court approves redrawn Texas congressional maps

    In an unsigned order, the 6-3 conservative majority court granted a request by Texas to lift a lower court’s ruling that struck down the state’s new map in November. The supreme court’s three liberal justices dissented.

    …

    Republicans in Texas, North Carolina, and Missouri have passed new maps that could add as many as seven GOP-friendly seats. Democrats, meanwhile, have countered that effort with new maps in California – where Republicans and the Trump justice department are suing to overturn the map – and in Virginia, which could offset those gains.

    In Utah, a judge handed Democrats an unexpected victory by choosing a House map for 2026 that gives the party one pickup opportunity.

  13. Comment on New hearing aid company, Fortell, brings in Steve Martin and others in ~health

    skybrian
    Link
    https://archive.is/gadrA From the article: ... ... ... ... ... I imagine this exclusivity is very temporary and most people who can afford high-end hearing aids will be able to get them in a year...

    https://archive.is/gadrA

    From the article:

    Among the age-related-hearing-loss set, getting into the Fortell beta test has become a weird status symbol, the aural-prosthetics version of a limited-edition Birkin bag. “This product has become a major flex for the post-70 set,” says one investor. When entertainment lawyer Allen Grubman got his—he’s buddies with an investor—he began getting calls from “very substantial” people. “They said, ‘Allen, we hear that you have these new great hearing aids,’” he says of these callers, who all wanted in. Those who finagled their way into the program include multiple Forbes 400 billionaires, a chart-topping musician, the producer of a beloved TV series, and Hollywood A-listers, both old and not-so-old. KKR private equity co-executive chair Henry Kravis raves about his Fortells, as does performer and beta tester Steve Martin.

    ...

    Lovchinsky felt that the AI claims made by some other hearing aid companies were overblown; they were simply tweaking the amplification, he says, or aiming the microphones in a different direction.

    “What became clear is that what was needed is source separation,” he says. “Take an audio wave that contains both things you want to hear and things you don't want to hear, and separate them into just speech and just noise.” Even in 2021, it wasn’t clear that this was possible. “We all have this incredible neural network in our heads honed by billions of years of evolution to recognize speech,” he says. “If you do the source separation with the slightest deviation from full naturalness, your brain will immediately hear it.”

    As the company’s cofounder and chief scientific officer, Lovchinsky and his team set about using cutting-edge AI to identify the aural fingerprints of the voices directed to the wearer, clean them up, and pass them on as if delivered in a quieter setting.

    ...

    Casper also wasn’t sure that his task could be accomplished. “Your ear is very sensitive to latency,” he says, noting that if the altered sounds weren’t processed in 10 milliseconds—a hundredth of a second—it would throw users into a hellish uncanny valley. “We didn’t know if it could be done in that amount of time with a high enough fidelity so you aren’t going to notice distortions.” Only then, he says, could the company move to the final challenge: “Can we even put this thing into your ear?”

    ...

    Now that the product is launched, Fortell will sell hearing aids in a single clinic on Manhattan’s Park Avenue. It’s decked out like a posh lounge, with the devices on display in a tasteful presentation that’s straight out of the Apple retail playbook. Hanging on the wall is a silicon wafer with the circuitry of the custom chips. In the early stages, his staff of four audiologists will serve only a couple of dozen customers a week, to make sure everything goes smoothly. In any case, while ramping up production, the supply will be limited.

    ...

    This is great for Fortell, but it seems de Jonge’s initial impulse to usher everyone’s grandparents into the land of the hearing is in danger of being limited to the one percent, which doesn’t exactly qualify him for a Salk medal. When I ask de Jonge how his invention can scale to change life for the masses, his replies, whether due to secrecy on future plans or just not having a good answer, seem hand-wavy. In his defense, Fortell has resisted the temptation to jack up the traditional price of premium hearing aids—the $6,800 is actually a bit less than some other medically prescribed hearing aids.

    ...

    Fortell is no miracle: In really noisy conditions, things are still hopeless. But to be fair, even people with perfect hearing are usually shouting at each other in those situations. (Who told restaurants that Led Zeppelin–level noise was the perfect accompaniment to dining?) Absent, say, a DJ and a wall of speakers, Fortell really did crack the Cocktail Party Problem. Compared to the expensive hearing aids I was using, I could follow more conversations during restaurant meals. I found myself comfortable with using them all day, whereas I couldn’t wait to take off the ones I had paid $8,000 for. (Apologies to Phonak—I haven’t tried those.) The biggest test was how well I could hear my wife, whose dulcet voice is sometimes the hardest one for me to make out. Using these new devices, I am less likely to respond to her trenchant observations with the word “What?”

    Bottom line: Now that Fortell is open for business, I’m going to ditch my present units and drop almost seven grand to buy a pair. If I can get on the list.

    I imagine this exclusivity is very temporary and most people who can afford high-end hearing aids will be able to get them in a year or two. Also, they'll have competition.

    Thanks to the beta testers, I guess.

    2 votes

  15. Comment on Why are 38 percent of Stanford students saying they're disabled? in ~life

    skybrian
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    If people were randomly selected to get extra time, then I would expect the people with extra time to get higher scores than those that don't. But if people are getting extra time due to a...

    If people were randomly selected to get extra time, then I would expect the people with extra time to get higher scores than those that don't.

    But if people are getting extra time due to a disability, I would hope that it would result in changing a lower score to one closer to average. If they're getting higher scores than average, then it seems like something might be wrong? Maybe it's the selection process, or it's overcompensating, or something else is wrong. It's impossible to tell without more investigation.

    Maybe it would be better to have them take the test as-is and use the disability as an explanation for the lower score? Colleges aren't required to take the students with the best scores.

    Or what if they gave everyone extra time? Is the test supposed to measure how people do under time pressure, or how they do if they take as much time as they need?

    It seems like this all hinges on what the test is designed to measure and how the score is supposed to be used.

    20 votes

  16. Comment on Bill Gates warns child deaths to rebound after Donald Trump-era funding cuts in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    Sure, these are common justifications. However, they seem more ideological than empirical. Suppose that sometimes taking a stand "works" and sometimes it doesn't. What counts as "works" and how...

    Sure, these are common justifications. However, they seem more ideological than empirical. Suppose that sometimes taking a stand "works" and sometimes it doesn't. What counts as "works" and how would we tell the difference?

    Regarding "normalized behavior," I think it's something that happens and I'm pretty fatalistic about it. After months of war in Ukraine, it became normalized. Similarly after Trump was in office for a while.

    Although, I do think it's a good sign that Hegseth is getting a lot of heat right now.

    1 vote

  17. Comment on Bill Gates warns child deaths to rebound after Donald Trump-era funding cuts in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    There wouldn't be lobbying if it didn't sometimes work. Sometimes Trump agrees with the last person who talked to him. To do a comparison, what's the practical argument for "taking a stand?" It...

    There wouldn't be lobbying if it didn't sometimes work. Sometimes Trump agrees with the last person who talked to him.

    To do a comparison, what's the practical argument for "taking a stand?" It seems like Democratic politicians are doing that a lot on social media and it's unclear if it accomplishes much. It might get some people to vote for them? But Bill Gates isn't running for office.

    6 votes

  18. Comment on Bill Gates warns child deaths to rebound after Donald Trump-era funding cuts in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    It was briefly cool when the first newspapers did for in-depth articles, but that was many years ago so I don't know why they still do it.

    It was briefly cool when the first newspapers did for in-depth articles, but that was many years ago so I don't know why they still do it.

  19. Comment on Do you feel like you’ve had many lives so far? Why, why not? Which? in ~life

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    What did you love about growing up in the Buford Highway Corridor?

    What did you love about growing up in the Buford Highway Corridor?

    2 votes

  20. Comment on IKEA finally arrives in New Zealand. Even the country's leader came out to celebrate. in ~finance

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    In California, I suppose you could build a carport over your driveway. And then gradually enclose it :) Something like this commonly happened to front porches where they were gradually enclosed to...

    In California, I suppose you could build a carport over your driveway. And then gradually enclose it :)

    Something like this commonly happened to front porches where they were gradually enclosed to become front rooms in the house.

    4 votes