skybrian's recent activity
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Comment on ‘It’s shameful’: New York’s elite lash out at Zohran Mamdani’s second-home tax in ~finance
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Comment on The boy that cried Mythos in ~comp
skybrian LinkThe people who want to be dismissive are going to find reasons, but the security experts I follow are taking the AI-based security threat very seriously. Some guy wants to make people hate...The people who want to be dismissive are going to find reasons, but the security experts I follow are taking the AI-based security threat very seriously.
Some guy wants to make people hate Anthropic and I don't really see the point of writing a long takedown about it. I don't think we need to take a position on how much better Mythos is, because it doesn't really matter. There are more high-quality security bugs being found through a variety of AI-enabled means. The people who maintain important systems have a lot more work to do lately.
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Comment on The boy that cried Mythos in ~comp
skybrian Link ParentFrom OpenAI's 2019 announcement about GPT-2: Seems to me that holds up well?From OpenAI's 2019 announcement about GPT-2:
These findings, combined with earlier results on synthetic imagery, audio, and video, imply that technologies are reducing the cost of generating fake content and waging disinformation campaigns. The public at large will need to become more skeptical of text they find online, just as the “deep fakes(opens in a new window)” phenomenon calls for more skepticism about images.
Today, malicious actors—some of which are political in nature—have already begun to target the shared online commons, using things like(opens in a new window) “robotic tools, fake accounts and dedicated teams to troll individuals with hateful commentary or smears that make them afraid to speak, or difficult to be heard or believed.”
Seems to me that holds up well?
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Comment on “Rediscovering” the operating system (AKA: the desktop is the killer app) in ~tech
skybrian LinkThis sounds more like rediscovering filesystems. I think naming and arranging files in folders is something a lot of people have gotten away from and don't want to go back to. An app could do that...This sounds more like rediscovering filesystems. I think naming and arranging files in folders is something a lot of people have gotten away from and don't want to go back to. An app could do that for you, though, like iTunes does.
The files are still there, unless it's a Sqlite database or something like that.
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Comment on Adversaries leverage AI for vulnerability exploitation, augmented operations, and initial access in ~comp
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...]From the article:
- Vulnerability Discovery and Exploit Generation: For the first time, GTIG has identified a threat actor using a zero-day exploit that we believe was developed with AI. The criminal threat actor planned to use it in a mass exploitation event but our proactive counter discovery may have prevented its use. Threat actors associated with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) have also demonstrated significant interest in capitalizing on AI for vulnerability discovery.
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AI-Augmented Research and IO: Adversaries continue to leverage AI as a high speed research assistant for attack lifecycle support, while shifting toward agentic workflows to operationalize autonomous attack frameworks. In information operations (IO) campaigns, these tools facilitate the fabrication of digital consensus by generating synthetic media and deepfake content at scale, exemplified by the pro-Russia IO campaign “Operation Overload.”
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Obfuscated LLM Access: Threat actors now pursue anonymized, premium tier access to models through professionalized middleware and automated registration pipelines to illicitly bypass usage limits. This infrastructure enables large scale misuse of services while subsidizing operations through trial abuse and programmatic account cycling.
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The compromise of LiteLLM, an AI gateway utility for integrating multiple LLM providers is noteworthy. It highlights the expanding attack surface of AI platforms and the potential for impact across the software supply chain. Given the package's widespread use, this incident could lead to considerable exposure of AI API secrets from affected victims, which could be used to gain further access to systems for traditional intrusion operations.
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Adversaries leverage AI for vulnerability exploitation, augmented operations, and initial access
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Comment on ‘It’s shameful’: New York’s elite lash out at Zohran Mamdani’s second-home tax in ~finance
skybrian (edited )Link ParentThanks! I've read before about a lot of these techniques. It's hard to tell from the outside if cryptocurrency is genuinely popular in Argentina or it it's just the crypto boosters talking it up.Thanks! I've read before about a lot of these techniques. It's hard to tell from the outside if cryptocurrency is genuinely popular in Argentina or it it's just the crypto boosters talking it up.
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Comment on ‘It’s shameful’: New York’s elite lash out at Zohran Mamdani’s second-home tax in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentOn the other hand, sometimes taxes transfer money to some other person, such as for pensions. Since they spend it on themselves, there's no particular reason to believe it will be less efficient....On the other hand, sometimes taxes transfer money to some other person, such as for pensions. Since they spend it on themselves, there's no particular reason to believe it will be less efficient.
But I also like the unorthodox theory that the purpose of taxes is to reduce spending and prevent inflation. After all, a central government can print money and spend it. They don't actually need the money. But then total spending would be too much, so spending by the private sector must be reduced.
This doesn't apply for NYC since they aren't the central government.
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Comment on ‘It’s shameful’: New York’s elite lash out at Zohran Mamdani’s second-home tax in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentSkepticism about the government certainly makes sense coming from someone in Argentina. How do people save money there in your experience? (Just curious.)Skepticism about the government certainly makes sense coming from someone in Argentina.
How do people save money there in your experience? (Just curious.)
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Comment on ‘It’s shameful’: New York’s elite lash out at Zohran Mamdani’s second-home tax in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentUh, there's plenty of it in New York City, and more being built all the time. Though, apparently not enough? Anyway, NYC is not at all typical for the US.let developers build high density housing
Uh, there's plenty of it in New York City, and more being built all the time. Though, apparently not enough? Anyway, NYC is not at all typical for the US.
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Comment on ‘It’s shameful’: New York’s elite lash out at Zohran Mamdani’s second-home tax in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentSure, you could think about it that way, but I suspect it’s entirely disconnected from how people think about property taxes when they are complaining that their taxes are too high? They aren’t...Sure, you could think about it that way, but I suspect it’s entirely disconnected from how people think about property taxes when they are complaining that their taxes are too high? They aren’t thinking about incentives or where the money goes just because that’s how you think about it.
It seems like this discussion lacks evidence about how people really think.
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Comment on ‘It’s shameful’: New York’s elite lash out at Zohran Mamdani’s second-home tax in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentI think that's going a little far. If you go to a fancy restaurant then you expect it to be "worth it." If it's not then I can see being kinda annoyed by it. If they add some extra fee for no...I think that's going a little far. If you go to a fancy restaurant then you expect it to be "worth it." If it's not then I can see being kinda annoyed by it. If they add some extra fee for no reason then you're probably kinda pissed, right? If you buy a car and it's a lemon then you expect them to fix it.
It's a more extreme version of customer entitlement, which is fundamentally about not getting the deal you thought you were getting, which is based on expectations that may be out of wack. People don't stop feeling that way if they have money even though it really doesn't matter anymore.
And I think the answer is, okay, you can be someone else's customer.
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Comment on ‘It’s shameful’: New York’s elite lash out at Zohran Mamdani’s second-home tax in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentNot sure about that. Like other real estate, it could be treated as an investment, and some could decide to sell if they don't have many other ties. Enough people might sell that prices go down a...Not sure about that. Like other real estate, it could be treated as an investment, and some could decide to sell if they don't have many other ties.
Enough people might sell that prices go down a bit. One would expect a drop in asset prices when maintenance costs are higher. It's similar to how raising interest rates put a damper on the real estate market. But I don't think New York City needs to worry about that?
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Comment on Goldman Sachs flags Amazon and Alphabet for inflating S&P 500 earnings growth figures in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentYes, their VC arm has been investments in other firms for maybe a couple of decades, but often in much smaller companies. And of course there are the "other bets" like Waymo, which are spinoffs...Yes, their VC arm has been investments in other firms for maybe a couple of decades, but often in much smaller companies. And of course there are the "other bets" like Waymo, which are spinoffs from Google's research devision. But it was fairly small compared to Google's own revenue. This seems more substantial.
An old argument against conglomerates was that the shareholders could invest in other companies themselves if that's what they wanted to do. But that's not true for large, private companies like Anthropic. Startups are staying private longer and growing larger before they go public.
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Comment on A Dialogue on Freedom in ~humanities
skybrian (edited )LinkThe bit about who "owns all the land" really did matter when most people were peasant farmers who barely made a living and were constrained by not having enough land (See here.) The abundance of...The bit about who "owns all the land" really did matter when most people were peasant farmers who barely made a living and were constrained by not having enough land (See here.) The abundance of land for settlers farming in the US (putting them into conflict with Native Americans) was a very big deal.
Nowadays things seem rather different. Sustenance farming isn't a thing in the US or Europe. Farms are businesses. In the US, many rural areas have emptied out. Agricultural land in some places has gone back to forest. There are cities with abandoned buildings downtown because they're losing population.
So it's mostly not about who owns "all the land" anymore. It's about housing in desirable areas, and more can be created by building taller buildings. If it's allowed.
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Comment on Aurora: A leverage-aware optimizer for rectangular matrices in ~comp
skybrian Link ParentYeah, I'm thinking more short-term. I imagine some new ideas published within the last few months or so haven't made it to production yet, so we're not seeing the benefit yet.Yeah, I'm thinking more short-term. I imagine some new ideas published within the last few months or so haven't made it to production yet, so we're not seeing the benefit yet.
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Comment on Aurora: A leverage-aware optimizer for rectangular matrices in ~comp
skybrian LinkFor people not actually working on LLM's, I think the takeaway is that we can expect AI researchers to keep finding new ways to increase performance, because current algorithms are far from...For people not actually working on LLM's, I think the takeaway is that we can expect AI researchers to keep finding new ways to increase performance, because current algorithms are far from optimal. Also, I imagine there are other good ideas already discovered that haven't made their way into popular LLM's yet?
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Comment on OpenAI's WebRTC problem in ~comp
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...] [...] [...] [...] [...]From the article:
WebRTC is a poor fit for Voice AI.
But that seems counter-intuitive? WebRTC is for conferencing, and that involves speaking? And robots can speak, right?
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WebRTC aggressively drops audio packets to keep latency low. If you’ve ever heard distorted audio on a conference call, that’s WebRTC baybee. The idea is that conference calls depend on rapid back-and-forth, so pausing to wait for audio is unacceptable.
…but as a user, I would much rather wait an extra 200ms for my slow/expensive prompt to be accurate. After all, I’m paying good money to boil the ocean, and a garbage prompt means a garbage response. It’s not like LLMs are particularly responsive anyway.
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Let’s say it takes 2s of GPUs to generate 8s of audio. In an ideal world, we would stream the audio as it’s being generated (over 2s) and the client would start playing it back (over 8s). That way, if there’s a network blip, some audio is buffered locally. The user might not even notice the network blip.
But nope, WebRTC has no buffering and renders based on arrival time. Like seriously, timestamps are just suggestions. It’s even more annoying when video enters the picture.
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It takes a minimum of 8* round trips (RTT) to establish a WebRTC connection. While we try to run CDN edge nodes close enough to every user to minimize RTT, it adds up.
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All of this nonsense is because WebRTC needs to support P2P. It doesn’t matter if you have a server with a static IP address, you still need to do this dance.
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WebRTC practically encourages you to fork the protocol. There’s so many limitations that I’ve barely scratched the surface. The browser implementation is owned by Google and tailor made for Google Meet, so it’s also an existential threat for conferencing apps.
Sad Fact: That’s why every conferencing app (except Google Meet) tries to shove a native app down your throat. It’s the only way to avoid using WebRTC.
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Honestly, if I was working at OpenAI, I’d start by stream audio over WebSockets. You can leverage existing TCP/HTTP infrastructure instead of inventing a custom WebRTC load balancer. It makes for a boring blog post, but it’s simple, works with Kubernetes, and SCALES.
I think head-of-line blocking is a desirable user experience, not a liability. But the fated day will come and dropping/prioritizing some packets will be necessary. Then I think OpenAI should copy MoQ and utilize WebTransport, because…
QUIC FIXES THIS
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OpenAI's WebRTC problem
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Comment on Teaching Claude why in ~comp
skybrian LinkIt seems pretty remarkable that the best way to fix the behavioral problems was suspiciously similar to giving Claude a course in ethics. Or so they say.It seems pretty remarkable that the best way to fix the behavioral problems was suspiciously similar to giving Claude a course in ethics. Or so they say.
They had expectations about how much it would cost them. Now, there's an tax increase targeted specifically at them, so it will cost more. I don't think it's that hard to understand why some might think that's unfair? NYC is changing the deal, and the politics around it are such that it seems punitive. (Of course, that's why a lot of other people like it.)
New buyers will know going in what it costs.