skybrian's recent activity
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Comment on LEGO’s first retail 3D printed element marks nine-year tech leap in ~tech
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LEGO’s first retail 3D printed element marks nine-year tech leap
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Comment on Book reviews: The Land Trap and Land Power in ~finance
skybrian Linkhttps://archive.is/eewby … … … Also see this book review from a Georgist perspective. … …In The Land Trap, Mike Bird writes that land holdings remain the single largest constituent (about one-third) of the more than $500tn of the world’s real wealth. His book is a thoroughly enjoyable tour of land’s importance in economic history to this day. “No asset is more powerful in global finance than land”, he writes. It is an asset “that can make and break families, businesses and even entire nations.”
Bird’s account ranges from Babylonian land grants to the recent Chinese land speculation — the “biggest bubble in history”, the fallout from which is still playing out. He weaves phases of economic development together with waves of interest in land reform — from the turn-of-the-20th century campaign for a universal land tax inspired by American journalist Henry George, through Wolf Ladejinsky’s work on land reform in post-second world war Asia, to Hernando de Soto’s more recent push for formalising land titles in Latin America.
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A useful companion book to Bird’s is Land Power by Michael Albertus. His history concentrates on exposing how land reflects and reshapes power inequalities and social conventions. Gender relations, for example: Albertus argues that Canada’s 1872 Dominion Lands Act, by excluding women from acquiring land through homesteading mattered for their (delayed) political emancipation. Land reform in India may have stoked “favouritism of boys both as children and in utero”; “settler-style” land grabs have buttressed apartheid and colonisation.
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Meanwhile Bird, a journalist for The Economist based in Singapore, homes in on land’s financial function. Land is special, he explains, because it cannot be moved, does not disappear, and exists in fixed supply. That makes it unrivalled as collateral for secured credit.
That is why debt crises so often centre on land — and debt crises are, as Bird rightly points out, much more destructive to the wider economy than stock market crashes. As a result, the history of economic disruption is disproportionately the history of land speculation — of turning land into money — from 1920s Florida to 1980s Japan and beyond. The special role of land also reveals why financial markets can misallocate credit. Bird cites research showing that higher real estate prices reduce investment by real-estate-poor companies and thereby threaten innovation.
Land is, however, more often economically creative than destructive. Since it facilitates the emergence of credit — collateral is a substitute for trust and information, after all — it has kindled economic fireworks at both the individual and the aggregate level.
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Also see this book review from a Georgist perspective.
Bird asserts that China has gotten its land policies disastrously wrong, at great cost to its future growth prospects and overall stability as a nation. This is the case even if we put entirely aside all of Mao’s disastrous policies, what with the murder of landlords, collectivization of agriculture, cultural revolution, and famines. Reformers like Deng Xiaoping made many wise decisions that unlocked tremendous growth in the post-Mao era, but still made enough bad choices when it came to land policy that China ultimately fell into the morass that it faces today.
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In addition to the broken Hong Kong model, China’s central government made a sudden change to local tax policy. Originally, government was fairly decentralized, with local officials in charge of local tax revenues and local spending obligations. That changed in 1993 when the central government started appropriating large shares of local government revenues for itself, while the local spending mandates remained unchanged.
Local governments became desperate for alternate sources of revenue, but couldn’t raise new taxes because Beijing would just take a huge cut, and couldn’t take out loans or issue bonds because of banking restrictions. Officials eventually realized they could raise money with land lease sales, which wouldn’t count as “tax” revenue for Beijing could seize. Suddenly local governments were selling off land as fast as they could.
You’d think local officials might have second thoughts, because they would eventually run out of land and would then have no means left to finance their future for the next 99 years. Bird explained a second bad incentive to me over a phone conversation: top local Chinese officials aren’t lifers, and constantly hop from one province to another, seeking eventual posts in Beijing. Since leadership doesn’t stay around long, there’s less incentive for them to look out for an individual region’s long term stability.
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Meanwhile, the central government went to great lengths to suppress all other forms of investment:
The Chinese government engaged in financial repression to direct the country’s savings towards its industrial champions. Interest rates on bank deposits were kept deliberately low to ensure the banks could offer low-interest loans for China’s prized state-owned enterprises. Though the Chinese economy was growing almost more rapidly than practically any other economy in the world, the returns on holding money in a bank were often negative, after accounting for inflation.
China also imposed strict capital controls to prevent citizens from investing their money in foreign markets like US stocks, leaving average citizens with nowhere to park their money other than real estate. Beijing wanted investment to flow to manly Chinese priorities like factories, cars, and high technology, not effete Western nonsense like cryptocurrency, financial derivatives, and social networking apps. The bitter irony is that by crushing every other form of investment as hard as it possibly could, but still leaving the door open for land, China somehow managed to out-West the West at ruinous financial speculation.
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Book reviews: The Land Trap and Land Power
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Comment on These travel influencers don’t want freebies. They’re AI. in ~travel
skybrian Link ParentFor Coca-Cola it's all about fantasy, not the product. This is not about whether the flavored sugar water tastes good. I can't get too worked up about what level of fakery they put in their...For Coca-Cola it's all about fantasy, not the product. This is not about whether the flavored sugar water tastes good. I can't get too worked up about what level of fakery they put in their commercials.
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Comment on Insurers retreat from AI cover as risk of multibillion-dollar claims mounts in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentOn the other hand, open source projects come with zero insurance coverage. This seemed rather odd to me when the lawyers for the company I was working for demanded an indemnity clause in the...On the other hand, open source projects come with zero insurance coverage. This seemed rather odd to me when the lawyers for the company I was working for demanded an indemnity clause in the contract to buy licenses from IntelliJ, but nothing like that was needed to use Eclipse, but that's how big companies do things sometimes.
I imagine if management really wants to take a risk, they'll find a way.
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Comment on These travel influencers don’t want freebies. They’re AI. in ~travel
skybrian Link ParentI don’t follow any travel influencers, but it seems to me that, if they do it professionally, they could do it well or badly. Similarly for whoever might be generating videos using AI.I don’t follow any travel influencers, but it seems to me that, if they do it professionally, they could do it well or badly. Similarly for whoever might be generating videos using AI.
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Comment on These travel influencers don’t want freebies. They’re AI. in ~travel
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Comment on These travel influencers don’t want freebies. They’re AI. in ~travel
skybrian (edited )LinkWarren Buffett on the Geico gecko: Maybe they could make these influencers animated characters, to avoid confusion?Warren Buffett on the Geico gecko:
The gecko, I should add, has one particularly endearing quality – he works without pay. Unlike a human spokesperson, he never gets a swelled head from his fame nor does he have an agent to constantly remind us how valuable he is. I love the little guy.
Maybe they could make these influencers animated characters, to avoid confusion?
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Comment on These travel influencers don’t want freebies. They’re AI. in ~travel
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Comment on How Europe is gearing up to follow Australia's teen social media ban in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentI think it's reasonable for parents to expect some cooperation from the community. For example, it would probably be harder to keep kids from smoking if any store will sell them cigarettes. They...parents need their governments to pass laws to prevent their kids from doing something
I think it's reasonable for parents to expect some cooperation from the community. For example, it would probably be harder to keep kids from smoking if any store will sell them cigarettes.
They might get cigarettes anyway, but that doesn't mean it has to be easy.
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Comment on Firewood banks aren’t inspiring. They’re a sign of collapse. in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentI don't like the framing of that article much either. It's expected that there will be more power outages in rural areas. There are plenty of trees that can fall on power lines, so it's a lot more...I don't like the framing of that article much either. It's expected that there will be more power outages in rural areas. There are plenty of trees that can fall on power lines, so it's a lot more fragile infrastructure to maintain. It's not a conspiracy against the poor; it's the nature of the problem.
I like the idea of putting in more battery backups like they're doing in Vermont.
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Comment on Firewood banks aren’t inspiring. They’re a sign of collapse. in ~finance
skybrian (edited )LinkThis seems more of a "city people are out of touch with country people" story than a "people are getting poorer" story. Buying and selling firewood is something commonly done in rural areas. Trees...This seems more of a "city people are out of touch with country people" story than a "people are getting poorer" story. Buying and selling firewood is something commonly done in rural areas. Trees have to be taken down sometimes and selling the firewood is a way to recoup the cost.
I guess the new thing is having an organized way to give it away? It seems like this would normally be done informally, like putting free stuff on Craigslist.
I don't understand how burning firewood is supposed to be a sign of collapse. A wood-burning stove is a common, inexpensive way to heat a house that will appeal to people who are frugal-minded. My father put in a wood-burning stove in the 1970's because our house was all-electric and electricity prices were going up. (As a kid I didn't like it because bringing in firewood was a chore we had to do.)
Nowadays I wouldn't do it because we live in a suburb and I don't like the idea of polluting the neighborhood. Gas heat is cleaner if if you can get it.
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Comment on Immigrants ‘plucked out of line’ at US citizenship oath ceremony at Faneuil Hall, group says in ~society
skybrian Linkhttps://archive.is/UGW2j From the article: .... ...From the article:
Just before taking the final step of the US naturalization process, two Massachusetts residents prepared to pledge allegiance to the United States were asked to step out of line at an oath ceremony last week, an immigrant services group said.
Four people who have been in the country lawfully for years and fulfilled every requirement on their path to US citizenship had their oath ceremonies at Faneuil Hall canceled Thursday by US Citizenship and Immigration Services officials, said Gail Breslow, executive director of Project Citizenship, which helps people across New England with their citizenship applications. The four people were all clients of the group.
At least two people were told to step out of line after they arrived at the ceremony, according to the group’s associate director, Marissa Rodriguez.
The reason for their removal appeared to be that they were originally from countries the Trump administration has labeled “high-risk,” pausing all immigration applications from those nations.
“Officers were asking what country people were from, and they were told to step out of line and that their ceremony had been canceled,” Breslow said Monday.....
All told, more than 20 of Breslow’s clients have had their oath ceremonies canceled through early next year — and many more cancellations will likely follow, she said.
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People from the following 19 countries are being told their citizenship ceremonies are canceled: Afghanistan, Burundi, Chad, Congo, Cuba, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Laos, Libya, Myanmar, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Togo, Turkmenistan, Venezuela, and Yemen.
Citizenship interviews and other steps that come earlier in the naturalization process are also being canceled, Breslow said.
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Immigrants ‘plucked out of line’ at US citizenship oath ceremony at Faneuil Hall, group says
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Comment on Is OpenAI Today’s Netscape? Or Is It AOL? in ~comp
skybrian Link ParentSometimes companies will provide web API's that customers can use to perform actions automatically. With LLM's and MCPs, there is more incentive to do this. Also, a nice thing about MCP is that...Sometimes companies will provide web API's that customers can use to perform actions automatically. With LLM's and MCPs, there is more incentive to do this. Also, a nice thing about MCP is that the company can just update the API and the LLM's will adapt; they don't need to maintain backward compatibility to the same extent as with traditional programming.
It seems promising when everyone cooperates, but often they don't. An example of a query that most chatbots fail on is "summarize this YouTube video." I've found that the best way is to go to the YouTube page, press the "Ask" button, then "Summarize this video." So, Google can do it, but there's no API for this.
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Comment on Is OpenAI Today’s Netscape? Or Is It AOL? in ~comp
skybrian Link ParentI doubt that caching requests would work very well because requests are rarely exactly the same. A better approach might be to improve their documentation so that an LLM is needed less often....I doubt that caching requests would work very well because requests are rarely exactly the same. A better approach might be to improve their documentation so that an LLM is needed less often. Having better documentation can also improve LLM query results, because LLM's can search the documentation too.
They should also be coming up with their own benchmarks that they can use to see how well LLM's do on the problems they care about. Also, maybe collect training data to do their own fine-tuning, using an open weights LLM.
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Comment on Is OpenAI Today’s Netscape? Or Is It AOL? in ~comp
skybrian LinkAn important difference is that AOL was targeted towards consumers only, while all the big AI companies have API’s, allowing other companies to build on them. There do seem to be some successful...An important difference is that AOL was targeted towards consumers only, while all the big AI companies have API’s, allowing other companies to build on them. There do seem to be some successful companies going after specialized markets, like Harvey for law and OpenEvidence for doctors.
These companies could switch to a different LLM when a new model appears,either because it’s better or because it’s cheaper.
I suspect that, at least for businesses, using general-purpose chatbot for specialized queries isn’t going to last.
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Comment on Campus characters: Identical twins, the Byers, live identical lives (2014) in ~life
skybrian LinkI didn’t find a good article about what they’ve been up to since this article was written, but they both have accounts on Instagram.I didn’t find a good article about what they’ve been up to since this article was written, but they both have accounts on Instagram.
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Campus characters: Identical twins, the Byers, live identical lives (2014)
12 votes
From the article:
You can see pictures and an animated gif of the 3d printed part here.