skybrian's recent activity
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Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of April 27 in ~society
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Comment on The people do not yearn for automation in ~society
skybrian Link ParentIt’s also true that building, maintaining, and securing API’s requires effort. They often get low adoption, are targeted by attackers, and don’t directly make money. If there’s nobody at the...It’s also true that building, maintaining, and securing API’s requires effort. They often get low adoption, are targeted by attackers, and don’t directly make money. If there’s nobody at the company championing them then often they get retired.
We’re seeing more interest in building API’s now because AI’s can use them, but sometimes this is speculative and the API’s that don’t get serious adoption might get dropped again.
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Comment on The people do not yearn for automation in ~society
skybrian Link ParentI don’t think history says what you think it says. The color revolutions in post-Soviet regimes come to mind. Also, many nonviolent changes of government due to elections. In many cases, lone...There is no bloodless revolution
I don’t think history says what you think it says. The color revolutions in post-Soviet regimes come to mind. Also, many nonviolent changes of government due to elections.
In many cases, lone wolves attempting assassinations are neither necessary nor sufficient.
That doesn’t mean nonviolent means always work. Most of the time they fail. I’m feeling optimistic about this year’s elections, though.
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Comment on India’s major airlines on ‘verge of closing down’ as high fuel costs sting in ~transport
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...]From the article:
India’s major airlines warned of a potential suspension in services unless the government lowered jet fuel prices.
“The airline industry in India is under extreme stress and on the verge of closing down or of stopping its operations,” the Federation of Indian Airlines, representing carriers including IndiGo, Air India and SpiceJet, said in a letter to India’s Civil Aviation Ministry, seen by Bloomberg.
They sought a return to pandemic-era cost caps on aviation turbine fuel and a reduction or deferment in taxes. The federation and the ministry did not immediately respond to queries sent after usual business hours.
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Speculation is mounting that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration will raise fuel prices once voting in state elections ends on Wednesday. While the government at a briefing on Tuesday denied any plan to raise petrol prices, it declined to answer a similar question on aviation turbine fuel.
India in early April had rolled back a steep increase in jet fuel prices for local flights within hours of pushing them to a record. Even so, carriers pay substantially more for fuel in the country than in Thailand, Dubai, Malaysia or Singapore because of high local taxes.
Although Indian refiners produce more jet fuel than the country consumes, prices are still set on import-parity basis – as if fuel had been shipped in from the Persian Gulf, complete with notional freight charges, insurance and customs levies.
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Airlines are also grappling with a weakening rupee, which inflates dollar-denominated costs such as aircraft leases and overseas airport charges. The government has responded with temporary relief measures, including a 25 per cent cap on monthly jet fuel price increases and a three-month reduction in landing and parking fees, and is considering loans backed by sovereign guarantees.
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India’s major airlines on ‘verge of closing down’ as high fuel costs sting
21 votes -
Comment on We must keep age verification from killing anonymity online in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentYep, agreed. I don't think there are any 100% techno-fixes that don't have draconian side effects. A solution that changes what's "normal" for most kids (for things like social media access)...Yep, agreed. I don't think there are any 100% techno-fixes that don't have draconian side effects. A solution that changes what's "normal" for most kids (for things like social media access) should go a long way. We don't have any 100% solutions for tobacco or alcohol use either.
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Comment on New AI data center in Utah will generate and consume more than twice the amount of power the entire state uses in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentSince it's off-grid, it won't affect anyone's electricity prices. Or at least not directly. It's surprising that they're not installing solar as well to reduce their fuel use, but it could be...Since it's off-grid, it won't affect anyone's electricity prices. Or at least not directly. It's surprising that they're not installing solar as well to reduce their fuel use, but it could be added later. It seems like it would be a very reasonable thing for the government to ask for as part of the permitting process.
The headline number might never be reached, depending on what the market looks like after the first phase, but already having the permission to expand is valuable.
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Comment on We must keep age verification from killing anonymity online in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentIt’s surprising that Germany allows that at all. In California, you can’t buy alcohol using self-checkout.It’s surprising that Germany allows that at all. In California, you can’t buy alcohol using self-checkout.
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Comment on We must keep age verification from killing anonymity online in ~tech
skybrian (edited )LinkChild-locked devices exist and it’s up to parents not to give their kids an unlocked device. The industry could help by making child-locked devices easier to set up and by making sure they don’t...Child-locked devices exist and it’s up to parents not to give their kids an unlocked device. The industry could help by making child-locked devices easier to set up and by making sure they don’t sell unlocked devices to kids. If you do that, no age-verification of people is necessary except at checkout when buying a device.
It should also be trivial to set your website to adult-only. Set a config option and it gets added to a list that’s consulted by child-locked devices. (And it shouldn’t be the same setting that causes Google to think it's a porn website.)
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Comment on USA to mandate surveillance tech for new cars also determing fitness to drive by 2027 in ~transport
skybrian LinkI’m skeptical about this article which is why I did a search and found the other one.I’m skeptical about this article which is why I did a search and found the other one.
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Comment on NHTSA tells US Congress: advanced impaired driving detection tech isn't ready in ~transport
skybrian Link ParentMaybe think a little more about the incentives that creates…Maybe think a little more about the incentives that creates…
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Comment on Russia revives retired aircraft amid airline fleet crisis in ~transport
skybrian LinkThis rather sketchy website claims that civilian aircraft are used for military purposes too: Russia’s Shadow Airlift: How the Kremlin Weaponised Commercial Aviation ...This rather sketchy website claims that civilian aircraft are used for military purposes too:
Russia’s Shadow Airlift: How the Kremlin Weaponised Commercial Aviation
Our previous “Maintained to Fail” investigation into Aviaremont JSC documented how Russia’s military aviation maintenance backbone is collapsing due to sanctions and absent spare parts. With the ever growing number of military aircraft requiring repairs and overhaul facilities effectively insolvent, the Russian Aerospace Forces are experiencing a genuine airlift capacity crisis – not just a maintenance inconvenience. That crisis leaves a gap. Russia’s military needs to move troops, weapons, and materiel. Its own aircraft increasingly cannot. So it is turning to the next most available option: civilian aviation.
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Why does the Ministry of Defence maintain aircraft on the civilian registry when it already commands a Military Transport Aviation fleet of roughly 400 to 450 dedicated military airframes? Aside from the poor operational readiness of the official fleet, the main strategic hurdle is international access. While Russian military aircraft face no procedural or logistical barriers landing at domestic civilian or joint-use airports within Russia, crossing sovereign borders is an entirely different matter. Under international aviation law, true military aircraft require complex, easily trackable diplomatic clearances to enter foreign airspace and are routinely barred from international commercial hubs. By placing a portion of its fleet on the civil registry and painting them in standard commercial liveries, the Ministry of Defence exploits civil aviation protocols. This allows them to bypass diplomatic red tape and fly into crucial transit nodes like the UAE, Turkey, or various African states under the guise of ‘civilian charter flights’.
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Comment on Russia revives retired aircraft amid airline fleet crisis in ~transport
skybrian LinkAlso: Flying on borrowed parts: Sanctions deepen Russia’s aviation crisis ...Also: Flying on borrowed parts: Sanctions deepen Russia’s aviation crisis
According to Goble, the problem is no longer limited to procurement. It is now feeding directly into safety concerns and the wider functioning of the Russian economy.
“I don't think there are very many planes in the air today in Russia that don't have parts taken from another plane that isn't flying anymore,” he said. While he noted that the available evidence is largely anecdotal, he said analysts of the sector have pointed consistently to the same pattern.
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Goble said the consequences could be especially severe in a country as vast as Russia, where many regions remain poorly connected by rail or road.
“You simply can't drive from one part of the country to another. You can't take a train because there are no tracks,” he said, arguing that air travel is not a luxury in much of Russia but a basic link holding together remote regions and local economies.
That is why, he said, the aviation crunch should be seen not as a narrow sectoral setback but as a wider strategic problem. Canceled flights, fewer connections and rising safety concerns could all weigh on mobility, logistics and state control in far-flung parts of the country.
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Comment on Russia revives retired aircraft amid airline fleet crisis in ~transport
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...] [...]From the article:
[In January], Russia’s Izvestia news outlet reported that Russia plans to reactivate retired Soviet-design aircraft in 2026. These include Tu-204-214s, an An-148, Il-96s, and more Boeing 747-400s.
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In total, Russia has been refurbishing 12 retired airliners, including nine Tu-204-214s, one An-148, and two Il-96s. These aircraft are up to 30 years old, and work has been ongoing since 2022.
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The two widebody, quad-engined Ilyushin Il-96s are particularly interesting. Cuba’s Cubana de Aviación is the only airline to use them in commercial passenger service. In Russia, they are exclusively used by the Russian government and for cargo transportation.
Russia is also rushing to Rusify the production of its commercial aircraft. While progress is being made, none have been delivered by the end of 2025, and only two flagship Yakovlev MC-21 airliners are expected to be delivered in 2026.
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In 2025, Russia saw a slight decline in passenger traffic, according to Izvestia. It seems more than a ‘slight decline’ with Kommersant reporting it is, “a 20% year-on-year decline in passenger traffic for Russian airlines.”
This was attributed to a reduction in Russia’s fleet size. By 2030, 230 Russian-made and 109 foreign-made aircraft are expected to retire across Russia.
Currently, Russian airlines are operating 100% of their serviceable fleet. However, the aircraft are being decommissioned at a rate of 2-3% annually with no new replacements since 2022. This means that foreign carriers are taking more and more of the long-haul Russian tourist market.
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Russia revives retired aircraft amid airline fleet crisis
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Comment on Exporters without borders: why you should start a company instead of working in aid in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentThe line between for-profit and non-profit organizations can sometimes be blurry because for-profit companies can operate at a loss for a while and non-profits still need to worry about budgets...The line between for-profit and non-profit organizations can sometimes be blurry because for-profit companies can operate at a loss for a while and non-profits still need to worry about budgets and where the money is coming from. There are incentives to cut costs to improve efficiency at whatever they're doing. Formally non-profit companies can still benefit some stakeholders - for example, paying managers a high salary.
When evaluating what Wasoko did, we don't know what their operating margin was and whether they were profitable or losing money in each market. We can guess that they were places that they pulled out of because they were losing money there.
And then the issue is that even if we figured that out, operating margins aren't enough to decide whether we approve of what they did. It doesn't tell us how much the people they served benefited, or what would have happened instead if they weren't there.
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Comment on Exporters without borders: why you should start a company instead of working in aid in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentI’ll point out that governments are also not required to serve people outside their jurisdiction. There are public school districts for rich communities that poor people have a hard time getting...I’ll point out that governments are also not required to serve people outside their jurisdiction. There are public school districts for rich communities that poor people have a hard time getting into. Selection effects can make their numbers go up, too.
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Comment on Exporters without borders: why you should start a company instead of working in aid in ~finance
skybrian Link ParentThanks for the additional context. (The first two links go to the same page; did you mean to link to something else?) You’ve said some positive things about the author too, but some of what you...Thanks for the additional context. (The first two links go to the same page; did you mean to link to something else?)
You’ve said some positive things about the author too, but some of what you wrote makes me wonder if we read the same article.
It seems rather cynical to summarize it as “you can get rich by doing what I did" when he didn’t appeal to greed or write anything about how he personally benefitted? Instead he made some claims about how what his company did benefited others. It’s appealing to an imagined reader who is interested in making an impact on the world rather than setting out to get rich, because they’re also considering working for an NGO.
(I suppose one would expect that he earned something from co-founding a business employing a so many people, but that’s left to the imagination.)
He found a market sector that hadn't been exploited yet
This seems like a rather cynical way to describe doing a better job at delivering food. I think you’re making assumptions going far beyond what we know, using loaded words like “abused” and “cornered.” When paying workers more means charging poor merchants and their customers more for food, it seems like there are tradeoffs to be made and we don’t know much about them. No prices are even mentioned. So how should we know whether their prices are too low or too high in the local context?
You’re also assuming that some competitors were harmed but we don’t know anything about them or what happened to them. If they charged more for worse service and lost to a more efficient competitor, maybe it’s for the best?
So maybe they did some things wrong, but we don’t actually know that. This is just a sketch using a few anecdotes and some round numbers for flavor.
And that seems like a downside of starting a business. There’s no scientific study because they didn’t need to do one to appeal to donors. So we know a lot less about what really happened.
I do think you’re right that there’s a place for nonprofits too.
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Comment on The case of missing American mushrooms in ~food
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...] [...] [...] [...] [...] [...] [...] [...] [...]From the article:
I recently learned that Canada’s mushroom production has been growing over the last 20 years, and much of it is exported to the United States, while production in the United States has declined. Differences in policy toward migrant workers between the United States and Canada, and differences in investments in new technology may explain the divergence in mushroom production between the two countries.
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You would be surprised to learn that almost 69% of the US mushroom production occurs in the borough of Kennett Square, Pennsylvania. It is a small town of about 6000 people, but mushroom-growing facilities around town produce almost 451 million pounds of mushrooms annually (2024). 451 million pounds of mushrooms would occupy about 45 American football fields or 35 soccer fields. The dollar value of mushroom production in the US is roughly $ 1 billion per year.
China is the undisputed leader in mushroom production. China accounts for 93% of the world’s global mushroom production.
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Growers use an old system called “Pennsylvania doubles” to grow mushrooms. Specialized, two-story cinderblock buildings with wooden shelves and intensive manual picking characterize the system. The system is designed with the assumption of cheap labor.
The growing houses provide a strictly controlled environment for growing white button, cremini, and portobello mushrooms on stacked beds, producing approximately 400 to 500 million pounds of mushrooms annually. Growers can manage the temperature, humidity, and airflow to create optimal conditions for mushroom mycelium to grow and fruit.
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As you can see in the video below, the conditions inside the mushroom-growing facilities are hot, humid, and stinky! The process of harvesting mushrooms is fairly manual, unless the grower has invested in a robotic harvesting system from companies like 4AG Robotics. Most US production facilities lack an automation design.
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Mushrooms are a type of fungus. If you have the right spawn available and can control the environment economically, you can grow mushrooms year-round. Mushrooms have a short shelf life. Mushrooms are 92% water. A mushroom starts losing water as soon as it is harvested. Anyone who has seen a fresh mushroom that has begun to dehydrate knows how unappetizing it can look.
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Canada and the United States grow mushrooms year-round in climate-controlled, indoor warehouses. Readers of this newsletter are aware of my massive skepticism about the economic viability of vertical farming, but mushrooms provide a counterexample in which vertical farming actually works. The main difference is that mushrooms are fungi and do not need sunlight for photosynthesis.
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Most mushroom production facilities in Canada are located in British Columbia and Ontario, close to the US border, and deliver their products to the northern United States within 36-48 hours of harvest. Production geography relative to population is the structural constraint that neither shelf-life extension nor improved cold chains can fully overcome.
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Mushrooms are fragile and bruise under their own weight. Vibration and pressure can cause bruising in transit. Each bruise initiates a localized decay, which accelerates from the point. It limits the number of handoffs or transfer events, since each event is a risk. Mushrooms can lose quality if they dehydrate or become too heavy, and they require an ideal relative humidity of 90-95%.
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So, why is US production dropping while production in Canada is rising, even though 99.6% of Canada’s exports go to the US? A big part of the answer to this question lies in how the United States and Canada provide support to migrant workers who come over to pick mushrooms.
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As mushroom farming is a year-round specialty crop, it doesn’t qualify for the H-2A temporary guest worker program. Without the H-2A labor option, growers concentrated in the Pennsylvania region are competing fiercely for local workers in a tight labor market.
The industry has used a mix of undocumented workers, immigrant workers with temporary protections, and labor contractors. The termination of TPS (Temporary Protected Status) for Venezuelan migrants, combined with broader immigration enforcement, will likely shrink the pool of available workers further.
Canada has taken a more flexible and stable approach. The Seasonal Agricultural Worker Program (SAWP) of Canada includes mushrooms. The national commodity list for SAWP workers includes mushrooms alongside fruits, vegetables, grains, dairy, and other sectors.
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The impact of seasonal H2A workers is not limited to mushrooms only.
It creates a legal labor vacuum across all commodities that operate year-round. It includes year-round industries such as dairy, beef cattle and other livestock operations, hog and poultry production, mushrooms, nursery and greenhouse operations, some tree fruit operations, aquaculture, and forestry. These sectors are a significant portion of the US agriculture GDP and the food system.
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The case of missing American mushrooms
15 votes
If you put it that way, yes, I don’t see any reason to count on them. There are upcoming court cases where it looks like there’s a decent chance that they won’t do what Trump wants, but they’re still conservatives.