skybrian's recent activity
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Comment on California’s utility wildfire liability conundrum could put clean energy projects in a delay doom loop in ~enviro
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Comment on California’s utility wildfire liability conundrum could put clean energy projects in a delay doom loop in ~enviro
skybrian Link ParentThis is largely irrelevant as far as cash flow is concerned. Most revenue comes from customers either way. Both private and public entities can borrow money. A private company can also raise money...This is largely irrelevant as far as cash flow is concerned. Most revenue comes from customers either way. Both private and public entities can borrow money. A private company can also raise money by selling stock and doesn’t have to pay it back on any particular schedule or at all, which is occasionally useful.
A government entity will have to fund infrastructure and compensate wildfire victims somehow. The problem doesn’t go away, and they can’t stiff the shareholders because there aren’t any. I suppose they could get revenue from taxes rather than utility bills, though, which can be made more progressive and is harder to avoid.
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Comment on California’s utility wildfire liability conundrum could put clean energy projects in a delay doom loop in ~enviro
skybrian Link ParentMaybe true, but that’s fairly old history now, sort of like blaming the previous administration for current troubles. It isn’t going to help in the current crisis. Some more context: The Tubbs...Maybe true, but that’s fairly old history now, sort of like blaming the previous administration for current troubles. It isn’t going to help in the current crisis. Some more context:
The Tubbs wildfire was in 2017. Though it wasn’t caused by PG&E, they suspended dividend payments as a precaution due to wildfire liability risk (in general). The Camp Fire was in 2018. In 2019, PG&E filed for bankruptcy. They emerged from bankruptcy in 2020. Since the bankruptcy, they’ve raised $38 billion from borrowing and $12 billion from selling stock. They’ve paid out less than $1 billion in dividends. Debt has increased from $40 to $65 billion, paying out nearly $3 billion a year, and interest rates are increasing as debt turns over at higher rates.
They can borrow money. But funding for either grid improvements or payments to wildfire victims (if there are more wildlifes) will primarily come from revenue - that is, customers. They are already spending more on infrastructure than they’ve getting from operating cash flow, hence the borrowing.
Utility stocks used to be considered a safe, reliable, rather boring investment, but those days are over, at least in California. Also, California already has some of the highest electricity rates in the country, and many customers can reduce what they pay by installing solar panels, etc. As rates go up, they have more incentive to do so.
There is only so much utilities revenue available to fund the various things that California would like them to pay for. Utilities are regulated. How much money comes in and where the money goes is largely up to the state, via the California Public Utilities Commission. So someone is going to have to make a decision about how generous to be to wildfire victims versus other possible uses of that money. Or we could, like, not make a decision, in which case, under current law, wildfire victims will likely get most of it the next time wildfires are particularly bad.
Although, I suppose if the money is already spent on infrastructure, it won’t be there and PG&E will go bankrupt again.
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Comment on Airbnb exec donates $100 million to San Francisco parks in ~finance
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...] [...] [...]From the article:
San Francisco mayor Daniel Lurie announced on Monday that Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky is donating $100 million to the city’s parks.
The donation to the department represents the largest donation in the city by a single donor, Lurie said at a press conference at Golden Gate Park’s Conservatory of Flowers.
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Chesky co-founded short-term rental company Airbnb in 2008, and the company is currently worth $100 billion. According to Forbes, Chesky’s personal net worth is over $13 billion.
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Chesky’s donation strikes a somewhat friendlier tone today between Airbnb and the city than in the past. While Lurie’s predecessor, London Breed, was in office, the company launched a $120 million lawsuit against San Francisco, claiming the city had incorrectly calculated what the company owed in taxes.
The suit, which led the city’s labor unions, advocacy groups and some elected officials to call for an Airbnb boycott, was settled earlier this year for $0.
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That first portion has been committed to five projects already underway, Madland said. That includes $39 million headed to Rachele Sullivan Park in SoMa, renovations at Jackson Hill Playground in Potrero Hill, keeping Garfield Pool in the Mission open on Sundays, renovations at the Embarcadero and completing India Basin Waterfront Park in Hunters Point.
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The department plans to spend the next year deciding where the second half of the money will go, according to Madland. Any money coming to the department must first be reviewed and approved by the Board of Supervisors.
Donations to the parks department are common, Madland said, so much so that the agency has actually received around $300 million in the last 15 years.
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Airbnb exec donates $100 million to San Francisco parks
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Comment on California’s utility wildfire liability conundrum could put clean energy projects in a delay doom loop in ~enviro
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...]From the article:
We’re talking, of course, about utility wildfire liability reform. Outgoing Gov. Gavin Newsom failed to broker a deal with lawmakers at the end of this year’s legislative session to protect the state’s major utilities from the potentially ruinous liabilities they face from fires sparked by their power lines.
Shares of the parent companies of Pacific Gas & Electric and Southern California Edison dropped precipitously on that news. PG&E, still recovering from a 2019 bankruptcy after its equipment started the Camp Fire in 2018, responded by announcing a “strategic review” that included postponing about $2 billion in work planned for 2027.
Last month, PG&E sent letters to some 25,000 customers warning them to expect delays in getting grid connections. Estimates range from one to six months for connecting housing developments and office buildings to “2027 and beyond” for city and county transportation and public works projects.
Among those facing undetermined delays are more than 60 renewable and storage projects scheduled to be online by 2030 — which could add at least 15 gigawatts of capacity, according to a PG&E spokesperson.
This compounds the already substantial delays for clean energy developers that have been struggling to get connected to California’s transmission grid. In fact, it could undermine the financial prospects of a lot of solar projects, Jan Smutny-Jones, CEO of the Independent Energy Producers Association, said at an Oct. 28 hearing of the California Assembly Utilities and Energy Committee.
Adding to the urgency is the fact that solar developers are under the gun to complete work by 2030 or lose out on federal tax credits thanks to revised deadlines in the tax and spending megabill passed by Republicans last year. “Miss that date, game over. It’s at least a 30% increase in the cost of those goods,” he said.
The new delays also threaten California’s goal of building 6 GW of new clean energy and storage by 2032. If projects can’t stay on schedule, the state may be forced to once again put off retiring more than 3 GW of aging, polluting coastal gas plants, Smutny-Jones said.
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This is truly a problem from hell, and I won’t pretend to know how to solve it. California’s unique inverse condemnation legal doctrine, which holds utilities liable for fires caused by their equipment even absent utility negligence, makes every power line a potentially business-ending risk. At the same time, utilities do need to be held responsible when they are negligent. PG&E was found guilty of involuntary manslaughter in 2020 for causing the Camp Fire.
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Southern California Edison now faces a jury trial to determine its liability for billions of dollars of damages caused by January’s Eaton Fire, which could deplete the state’s $21 billion wildfire fund. Wildfire victims and consumer advocates outraged at the idea of the state intervening to limit utility shareholder payouts see PG&E’s $2 billion in spending cutbacks as a form of blackmail.
But a state-mandated report issued this summer makes clear that failing to fix the status quo will leave utilities at risk of financial collapse — and that’s a direct threat to climate progress and energy affordability. I fear things are going to get uglier before we find any compromises. We may need a plan C and D along with a plan B.
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California’s utility wildfire liability conundrum could put clean energy projects in a delay doom loop
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Comment on Inside the operation that helped Ukraine reverse some Russian war gains (gifted link) in ~society
skybrian LinkFrom the article: [...] [...] [...] [...]From the article:
After months of operational silence, the Ukrainian brigades involved have begun to reveal details of how they managed to turn a losing defensive fight against Russian forces into a successful offensive along parts of the front line. They allowed a team of New York Times reporters to embed with them for two weeks and see their work firsthand.
Ukrainian troops had been losing ground to the far more numerous Russian Army for the best part of two years. But the wider use of drones and remote-controlled vehicles, and changes in the command structure and culture within parts of the army, enabled Ukraine to shift gears.
Brig. Gen. Andriy Biletsky, the overall commander of the operation, claimed that the tactics were so successful that his troops had wiped out Russia’s 144th Motor Rifle Division in the fighting and reversed Russia’s gains of a whole year.
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Alongside several of his commanders, he had gathered members of the news media in an underground bunker to announce the end of Operation Vivaldi, the main thrust of which he said began in May, and to sum up its results.
In October, for the second consecutive month, Ukraine gained more territory than Russia, and Russian forces suffered their highest monthly casualty toll — more than 54,000 killed or seriously wounded — of the war, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
Military analysts and Russian military bloggers have confirmed Ukrainian gains, as Russian forces lost a key salient north of the city of Lyman and an equal amount of territory on the Zaporizhzhia front line in southern Ukraine.
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Last year, the brigade, vastly outnumbered by Russian forces opposing them, was steadily losing ground, Mr. Horobets said. Their supply routes were under fire, preventing them from bringing in ammunition and evacuating the wounded.
Yet it was from that maelstrom, fed up with being destroyed by Russian firepower, that a few battalion commanders said they took things into their own hands. They seized critical Russian positions on high ground above a village from which Russian troops were directing the strikes against them.
Once they controlled the heights and knocked out Russian communications, they found they had an advantage. The Russian soldiers in the village did not know what had happened and could not replace equipment because the Ukrainian forces were bringing down the Russian supply drones and preventing vehicles getting through on the roads, several commanders involved in the operation said.
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As the Ukrainians began advancing, the value of their middle-range drone strikes became clear. The Third Army Corps was striking up to 50 Russian vehicles a day, sometimes as deep as 100 miles behind Russian lines, General Biletsky said.
“It became normal for the enemy to unload 40 to 50 kilometers from the front line and then continue on foot,” he said. Sometimes a soldier would carry a single artillery shell 20 miles, he said. “Their logistics have effectively been paralyzed.”
Russian soldiers were running short of fuel, ammunition and food. Some began holding up cardboard signs outside their positions, saying they were hungry and thirsty, several commanders said.
Critically, when Russian reinforcements were called in, Ukrainian drones struck them as they dismounted from vehicles miles before they could reach the front line, Mr. Horobets said.
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By now, ground robots are vital. In several underground command posts our team visited, Ukrainian soldiers watched livestream videos of tracks and undergrowth as the vehicles trundled through the kill zone carrying cargo. Sometimes they brought out the bodies of dead soldiers.
Many of the vehicles break down or get attacked by Russian drones, and their cameras showed the wrecks of other vehicles.
But many of them get through. General Biletsky said his brigades were delivering three times as much cargo to their soldiers on the front line as other brigades that recently came under his command.
“That means a soldier in the Third Army Corps has considerably more resources and capabilities available to them: food supplies, ammunition, equipment, power sources, batteries and so on, compared with a soldier elsewhere,” he said. They were even receiving diggers to help build underground bunkers, he said.
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Inside the operation that helped Ukraine reverse some Russian war gains (gifted link)
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Comment on Historic voter turnout powered US Democrats’ blue wave in ~society
skybrian Link ParentI meant, comparatively easier than some of other changes people have discussed in this topic. No political change is actually easy, but we discuss them anyway.I meant, comparatively easier than some of other changes people have discussed in this topic. No political change is actually easy, but we discuss them anyway.
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Comment on Historic voter turnout powered US Democrats’ blue wave in ~society
skybrian Link ParentYes, it’s easy to come up with other activities that count more than voting. For example, if you can successfully influence two other people who would have voted differently, mathematically, that...Yes, it’s easy to come up with other activities that count more than voting. For example, if you can successfully influence two other people who would have voted differently, mathematically, that counts twice as much as your own vote in the same election. Also, perhaps you could influence people in a swing state, or in other elections where you don’t have a vote?
But it’s easier said than done. The trouble is, it’s often hard to observe a specific connection between political activity and differences in voting behavior, and often people don’t even try, just assuming it’s doing something.
Also, attempts to influence voting often fail, even for billionaires who can put a lot of resources into their own campaigns. For better or worse, probably for the better.
Influencing other people isn’t easy.
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Comment on Historic voter turnout powered US Democrats’ blue wave in ~society
skybrian Link ParentIt’s true that there isn’t a lot of good information about many local candidates. Also, newspaper endorsements are mostly paywalled these days. There are some you can safely skip like the judges....It’s true that there isn’t a lot of good information about many local candidates. Also, newspaper endorsements are mostly paywalled these days.
There are some you can safely skip like the judges. Those only matter if there’s a controversy about one of them.
We didn’t get a lot of ads in the mail this year, but maybe it’s because we moved recently?
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Comment on Historic voter turnout powered US Democrats’ blue wave in ~society
skybrian Link ParentBut it could be higher still. It seems easier (because less controversial) than getting mandatory voting passed?But it could be higher still. It seems easier (because less controversial) than getting mandatory voting passed?
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Comment on Historic voter turnout powered US Democrats’ blue wave in ~society
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Comment on Historic voter turnout powered US Democrats’ blue wave in ~society
skybrian Link ParentIn California, 80% of voters vote by mail, compared to 20% in Illinois. Any ideas why it’s not more popular in Illinois?In California, 80% of voters vote by mail, compared to 20% in Illinois. Any ideas why it’s not more popular in Illinois?
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Comment on Paraguay president impeached minutes after resigning following bank collapse in ~society
skybrian Link ParentNot endorsing anything, but as a historical aside, during the Roman Republic, senators were often former office holders (and therefore often former generals) and served for life. So there’s a...Not endorsing anything, but as a historical aside, during the Roman Republic, senators were often former office holders (and therefore often former generals) and served for life. So there’s a tradition around former office holders becoming senators.
But also, the Roman senate wasn’t a legislature and didn’t pass laws.
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Comment on Historic voter turnout powered US Democrats’ blue wave in ~society
skybrian Link ParentI don’t know about No Kings, but aren’t protests often seen as some kind of alternative to voting? Unless it’s specifically a political rally, it seems like they’re rarely explicitly encouraging...I don’t know about No Kings, but aren’t protests often seen as some kind of alternative to voting? Unless it’s specifically a political rally, it seems like they’re rarely explicitly encouraging people to vote.
But I did see a few protesters on Ashby around Halloween and they did seem to be encouraging voting.
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Comment on Historic voter turnout powered US Democrats’ blue wave in ~society
skybrian (edited )Link ParentA lot of people on social media, including Tildes, make arguments implying that voting is pointless, for various reasons. It’s hard to argue with because it’s largely true for individuals. Your...A lot of people on social media, including Tildes, make arguments implying that voting is pointless, for various reasons.
It’s hard to argue with because it’s largely true for individuals. Your vote counts, but it’s mostly other people’s votes that count. So you kind of have to do it even though your own vote is unlikely to do much.
There are exceptions. Perhaps in Mississippi this year?
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Comment on Historic voter turnout powered US Democrats’ blue wave in ~society
skybrian LinkFrom the article: Based on the chart in the article, turnout for midterm elections is always lower than for presidential elections, but turnout was high for a midterm.From the article:
Across the United States, 49 percent of eligible Americans voted, the second-highest turnout [for a midterm] since 1914, when neither women nor African Americans could vote in many states, according to preliminary data from the University of Florida Election Lab.
Three states with the highest turnout — Maine (65.7 percent), Minnesota (65.2 percent) and Michigan (63.2 percent) — held competitive Senate races where Democrats prevailed. All three also elected Democratic governors.
National turnout increased by three percentage points compared with 2022’s midterm elections. It was only slightly lower than in 2018, during the first Trump presidency, when 50 percent of eligible voters turned out.
Despite setting high marks for a midterm, turnout was lower than the 2024 presidential election by 15.2 percent. But the gap was smaller in the most competitive races, including in Maine, where Democratic Senate nominee Troy Jackson ousted Sen. Susan Collins (R), and Texas, where state Rep. James Talarico defeated Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, in the race for U.S. Senate.
Based on the chart in the article, turnout for midterm elections is always lower than for presidential elections, but turnout was high for a midterm.
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Historic voter turnout powered US Democrats’ blue wave
52 votes
If I recall correctly, PG&E wanted to spend more on maintenance but the CPUC didn't approve it because it would raise electricity rates.
So, no, bad decisions can't all be blamed on the profit motive. Sometimes they can be blamed on politics, too, and it's rather difficult to figure out who deserves more blame in this case. Elected and appointed officials may be operating under bad incentives, like getting reelected, keeping their job, or bad influence from lobbyists.
Governance is a tricky problem and there are no obvious winners, only kludgy workarounds to try to avoid the worst failures. We would like to have good decision-makers in charge of various organizations, but no method guarantees that we will get them.