The persistence of the Venezuelan migrant and refugee crisis (2023)

From the article:

The outflow of refugees and migrants from Venezuela is the largest displacement crisis in the world, with almost 7.7 million migrants and refugees as of August 2023. This is an even greater number than the displacement of Syrians or Ukrainians outside of their countries. Despite these numbers, the Venezuelan migrant and refugee crisis, quite unfortunately, has climbed down the list of political and policy priorities, with fewer headlines in the media and sporadic policy conversations in Washington.

On one hand, there is a sense that this is the new normal for the region and that host countries in Latin America and the Caribbean will have to continue to manage the influx of 6.4 million Venezuelans and counting as best as they can. On the other hand, it seems that neighboring countries across the region are willing to continue discussions on how best to address migration and forced displacement, but by removing the Venezuelan political focus from the center of the migrant and refugee discussion. The truth is, however, that this is a crisis that persists, and is likely to continue as long as the root causes are not addressed.

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Venezuelan migrants are now leaving countries like Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Chile, where they had originally migrated, due to low salaries, inflation, and lack of jobs, and are making the dangerous trek to reach the U.S. border. To understand the scale of these flows, going by the number of Venezuelans crossing the Darién Gap, the remote stretch of rainforest located between Colombia and Panama, a record 400,000 migrants have crossed during the first nine months of [2023], according to Panamanian officials, and Venezuelans account for an estimated 60 percent of those, namely around 240,000, the most of any nationality. In search of the American dream, record numbers of migrants have also reached the U.S.-Mexico border, with 262,633 Venezuelans having crossed just in 2023, up from 189,520 in 2022.

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The challenges faced by the 7,710,887 displaced Venezuelans throughout the world, and the stories of so many of them moving throughout the Americas demonstrates the danger they are in—especially when they attempt to cross the harrowing Darién Gap. This 575,000 hectares of jungle between Panama and Colombia has become one of the Western Hemisphere’s most pressing focal points of the crisis. According to the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCR), migrants are exposed to “multiple human rights violations, including sexual violence, murders, disappearances, trafficking, robbery and intimidation by organized criminal groups.”

Despite this life-threatening journey—which can take almost 10 days—the numbers, as reported by Panamanian authorities, have gone up exponentially, from the almost unthinkable record of nearly 250,000 in 2022 to more than 330,000 in 2023. A gut-wrenching element is that one in five of these migrants were children. Regardless of initiatives such as the Humanitarian Parole for Venezuelans in the United States, and the Safe Mobility initiative (which was announced by the United States government to provide legal pathways to the United States for refugees and migrants in South and Central America) migrants continue to cross the jungle. In August alone, almost 82,000 people made the trek through the Darién, by far the largest single-month total on record.

A more recent article about what this likely means for the US:

Despite a fortified border, migrants will keep coming, analysts agree. Here's why. (NPR)

The U.S. southern border is as fortified as ever and Texas is carrying out its own enforcement to stop people from crossing illegally, yet observers and analysts agree on this: migrants not only will continue to come, but their numbers will likely increase in the coming months.

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"In most countries (outward) migration has increased ... particularly in Venezuela, and that's not really reflected yet in the U.S. numbers," said Adam Isacson, an analyst of border and migration patterns at the Washington Office on Latin America, a nonpartisan research and advocacy organization based in Washington D.C.

Despite Mexico's cracking down on migrants, Isacson said people are still making their way up north, even if they need to pause for months at different points during their journey.

"There must be a huge number of people from Venezuela bottled up in Mexico right now," he said.

The Darién Gap serves as a good barometer for migration flows.

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Mexico and the U.S. had been flying Venezuelan migrants back to the South American country. However, earlier this year, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro stopped accepting flights from the U.S. in response to economic sanctions imposed by the Biden administration.

Panama reported a 2% increase in crossings through the Darién Gap in February compared to the previous month.

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Analysts are projecting the increase in the remaining months of the fiscal year, even though U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported a 2.2% decrease in encounters with migrants along the Southern border in March. An encounter is every time a migrant is picked up by immigration authorities.

These numbers are consistent with cyclical patterns of illegal crossings that dip in the winter months, followed by more migrants attempting to get to the U.S. as warm weather arrives, said Ruiz Soto.

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For the last few months, more migrants are attempting to cross through Arizona instead of Texas, according to CBP.

In 2023, the El Paso and Del Rio sector in Texas saw more crossings than any other place across the 2,000-mile Southern border. But this year the Tucson sector in Arizona has seen a 167% increase in crossings, more than any other.