this election is tomorrow, for the record, and it is bound to be an absolute clusterfuck since (1) netanyahu's governing coalition currently has a majority of one in the knesset, and (2) the...
this election is tomorrow, for the record, and it is bound to be an absolute clusterfuck since (1) netanyahu's governing coalition currently has a majority of one in the knesset, and (2) the right-wing parties (which have 66 total seats against 54 for the left and center) are bouncing between picking up seats and losing them. how the election goes and who actually makes up the government is probably going to depend on which parties cross the electoral threshold of 3.25%, which is to say that we'll probably not know for awhile after tomorrow who is where, unless there's an unforeseen landslide.
one thing is for certain though: the overton window on what is acceptable in israel is probably going to move to the right regardless of who wins. netanyahu has dialed up his rhetoric considerably recently (tildes discussion), and at least as far as political stances go, the leader of blue and white (the party that might overtake likud as the largest party) is basically just a watered down netanyahu. both of them stand on pretty similar things, and most of where they differ is in execution and extremeness. and of course there's zehut, the subject of the article, which could be the party that has to put one group over the top and is standing on an... interesting platform to say the least. so there's that.
I just came back from voting. I can tell you that Feiglin is more of a weird and wildly disturbing curiosity than a real contender, and certainly not a kingmaker. The nature of Israeli coalition...
I just came back from voting. I can tell you that Feiglin is more of a weird and wildly disturbing curiosity than a real contender, and certainly not a kingmaker. The nature of Israeli coalition building will be familiar to any parliamentary-system European - the president will ask the leader of the largest party to form a coalition. They, in turn, negotiate and invite other parties to join the coalition and inform the president if that process was successful. The leader of the largest party then becomes prime-minister. It is in those negotiations when people can become kingmakers, by withholding support or demanding the moon. Feiglin is neither. He is a one-trick pony and will sit with any right-wing coalition because withholding his support will allow left-wingers to set the tone.
As for me, I (and my family) will be supremely disappointed if Netanyahu wins again, but we will not be surprised. The public propaganda machine he has presided over in the last few months has been both disgusting and extremely effective. Say what you will about Netanyahu, he is a good demagogue, is fairly charismatic and knows how to manipulate the masses. Imagine the kind of damage Trump could have caused if he actually wasn't stupid and knew how to talk to
a crowd (and didn't have a term limit).
My prediction is that Netanyahu is going to be prime minister again, and will shoot down all pending investigations against him as soon as he reasons office, with the excuse - I got a new mandate from the people.
EDIT: Listening to recent of the exit polls, situation looks pretty bleak. It seems that a large number of the Arab Israeli population didn't go out to vote and 2 of their the parties are at significant risk of not passing the minimum vote. Another progressive left party is at a risk of not passing. If a single one of these parties fail to pass, it all but guarantees a Netanyahu win.
Feiglin, by the way, is predicted not to pass
this election is tomorrow, for the record, and it is bound to be an absolute clusterfuck since (1) netanyahu's governing coalition currently has a majority of one in the knesset, and (2) the right-wing parties (which have 66 total seats against 54 for the left and center) are bouncing between picking up seats and losing them. how the election goes and who actually makes up the government is probably going to depend on which parties cross the electoral threshold of 3.25%, which is to say that we'll probably not know for awhile after tomorrow who is where, unless there's an unforeseen landslide.
one thing is for certain though: the overton window on what is acceptable in israel is probably going to move to the right regardless of who wins. netanyahu has dialed up his rhetoric considerably recently (tildes discussion), and at least as far as political stances go, the leader of blue and white (the party that might overtake likud as the largest party) is basically just a watered down netanyahu. both of them stand on pretty similar things, and most of where they differ is in execution and extremeness. and of course there's zehut, the subject of the article, which could be the party that has to put one group over the top and is standing on an... interesting platform to say the least. so there's that.
I just came back from voting. I can tell you that Feiglin is more of a weird and wildly disturbing curiosity than a real contender, and certainly not a kingmaker. The nature of Israeli coalition building will be familiar to any parliamentary-system European - the president will ask the leader of the largest party to form a coalition. They, in turn, negotiate and invite other parties to join the coalition and inform the president if that process was successful. The leader of the largest party then becomes prime-minister. It is in those negotiations when people can become kingmakers, by withholding support or demanding the moon. Feiglin is neither. He is a one-trick pony and will sit with any right-wing coalition because withholding his support will allow left-wingers to set the tone.
As for me, I (and my family) will be supremely disappointed if Netanyahu wins again, but we will not be surprised. The public propaganda machine he has presided over in the last few months has been both disgusting and extremely effective. Say what you will about Netanyahu, he is a good demagogue, is fairly charismatic and knows how to manipulate the masses. Imagine the kind of damage Trump could have caused if he actually wasn't stupid and knew how to talk to
a crowd (and didn't have a term limit).
My prediction is that Netanyahu is going to be prime minister again, and will shoot down all pending investigations against him as soon as he reasons office, with the excuse - I got a new mandate from the people.
EDIT: Listening to recent of the exit polls, situation looks pretty bleak. It seems that a large number of the Arab Israeli population didn't go out to vote and 2 of their the parties are at significant risk of not passing the minimum vote. Another progressive left party is at a risk of not passing. If a single one of these parties fail to pass, it all but guarantees a Netanyahu win.
Feiglin, by the way, is predicted not to pass