16 votes

US on path to widespread political violence

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  1. Turtle
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    Countries facing economic crisis and inter-group conflict – as the United States currently is due to the economic fallout of the ongoing pandemic and racial justice protests – can quickly descend...

    Countries facing economic crisis and inter-group conflict – as the United States currently is due to the economic fallout of the ongoing pandemic and racial justice protests – can quickly descend into mass violence. This is especially true when political leaders flout the outcome of elections or repeatedly inflame social tensions during a period of acute inter-group tension, as is the case with Trump’s repeated inflammatory acts and statements. For example, as the governments in the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda lost control of their territory, the heads of state of both Serbia (Slobodan Milošević) and Rwanda (Jean Kambanda) publicly called for state security forces and, pertinently, armed civilian militias to attack targeted groups en masse. Both of these conflicts rapidly escalated into catastrophic atrocities, inflicting deep wounds that are still mending today.
    [...]
    There is a voluminous literature on the main risk factors indicating an increased likelihood of state-sponsored mass atrocities against civilians (see e.g. here and here). We are worried that key indicators are now evident, and in fact increasing, in the United States. Prime examples include:

    • Rising social and economic inequality.
    • Worsening or historically woeful economic conditions.
    • A surge of inflammatory political rhetoric, including at the highest levels of government.
    • The creation of, or increased support for, armed militias or paramilitary groups.
    • Racial or ethnic tensions, including a history of intergroup conflict.
    • The stark polarization of political parties along mainly racial or religious lines.
    • A loss of faith in the electoral system and/or a lack of free and fair elections.
    • A near-term major national election.
    5 votes