5 votes

Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of October 18

Automatically posted
Tags: usa, politics, recurring.weekly

This thread is posted weekly - please try to post all relevant US political content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Extremely significant events may warrant a separate topic, but almost all should be posted in here.

This is an inherently political thread; please try to avoid antagonistic arguments and bickering matches. Comment threads that devolve into unproductive arguments may be removed so that the overall topic is able to continue.

9 comments

  1. [2]
    spit-evil-olive-tips
    Link
    Opinion: Joe Manchin’s ugly new demands expose the absurdity of arbitrary centrism I find it completely absurd that when we discuss social safety net programs here in the US, "making enough that...

    Opinion: Joe Manchin’s ugly new demands expose the absurdity of arbitrary centrism

    Manchin’s new moves reveal the folly of arbitrary centrism. This posture is essentially that any effort to restrain liberal governance is an inherent good, with no serious acknowledgement required of the real-world trade offs it entails.

    Manchin has told the White House that the expanded child tax credit (CTC) must be packaged with a work requirement and be capped at family incomes of around $60,000

    I find it completely absurd that when we discuss social safety net programs here in the US, "making enough that you shouldn't need help" is defined as something like $60k/year.

    but meanwhile, when talking about tax increases for the wealthy, the bar for "middle-class and shouldn't have your taxes raised" gets set at $400k/year. and some people argue that's too low, and there's people making $400k/year who really aren't that well-off

    13 votes
    1. psi
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      "Arbitrary centrism" is the perfect description, and it perfectly encapsulate how I felt when Manchin demanded progressives jettison all but one of Biden's three proposed safety net policies for...

      "Arbitrary centrism" is the perfect description, and it perfectly encapsulate how I felt when Manchin demanded progressives jettison all but one of Biden's three proposed safety net policies for families (namely the expanded child tax credit, the subsidies for pre-k childcare, and paid family leave).

      It's difficult to take Manchin's concern seriously when the extent of his reasoning appears to be more spending = more bad. I mean, the three policies would all cost differently, so arbitrarily constraining Biden's agenda to number of policies rather than total cost doesn't make much sense. (And even when Manchin does attempt to constrain the total cost, that feels just as arbitrary -- why limit spending to 1.5 trillion USD? Just because it's a comfy, round number?)

      Meanwhile, people actually are struggling to make ends meet. Manchin is more concerned about imagined problems than real, measurable ones.

      Edit: of course, there probably should be a spending limit at some number. If I were in Joe Manchin's shoes and sincerely concerned about excess spending, I'd be consulting with experts to determine where the limit lies. And if that limit were indeed at 1.5 trillion USD, I'd certainly try to explain why to my colleagues.

      But as far as I'm aware, Manchin hasn't done any of that. Manchin has yet to justify why spending 1.5 trillion USD is acceptable while spending 2 trillion USD is not.

      (But maybe I missed it -- if someone knows how Manchin came to the 1.5 trillion USD figure, please let me know!)

      10 votes
  4. [2]
    HotPants
    Link
    Dollar wavering as global inflation surges; kiwi jumps NZ is seeing inflation which is impacting the dollar as expectations are other countries will have to raise rates, making them a more...

    Dollar wavering as global inflation surges; kiwi jumps

    NZ is seeing inflation which is impacting the dollar as expectations are other countries will have to raise rates, making them a more appealing place to store your money (if you have any.)

    3 votes
    1. HotPants
      Link Parent
      Billionaire investor Carl Icahn warns a market crisis is brewing... Slightly relevant to this political news thread as Bidens additional spending will be blamed if inflation hits and the economy...

      Billionaire investor Carl Icahn warns a market crisis is brewing...

      1. "I've made it almost the cardinal rule to not try to predict the market over the short or medium term, and it's served me well. I made the mistake of straying from that rule in 2020, and paid the price for it."

      2. "In the long run, the market is certainly going to hit the wall. I really think there will be a crisis the way we're going, the way we're printing money, the way we're going into inflation."

      Slightly relevant to this political news thread as Bidens additional spending will be blamed if inflation hits and the economy tanks.

      2 votes
  5. HotPants
    Link
    GDP estimates are on a downward trend The model is based on manufacturer sentiment surveys, and isn't always accurate until the advanced gdp number comes out a few months after the quarter, but...

    GDP estimates are on a downward trend

    The model is based on manufacturer sentiment surveys, and isn't always accurate until the advanced gdp number comes out a few months after the quarter, but the graph also shows a downward trend in blue chip consensus.

    2 votes
  6. [2]
    HotPants
    Link
    Fed’s Powell says elevated inflation could last well into next year You can see the effect that fed asset purchases has had on stocks here and here is the same view through the lens of yoy %...

    Fed’s Powell says elevated inflation could last well into next year

    Powell said it was “time to taper”

    You can see the effect that fed asset purchases has had on stocks here and here is the same view through the lens of yoy % changed. Tapering is a huge deal.

    Powell said he agreed roughly with the view that inflation will be transitory but also persistent.

    "transitory but also persistent" is my new favorite fed speak, right next to irrational exuberance. Shiller should write another book called "transitory but also persistent."

    If the Fed sees a serious risk of inflation expectations moving persistently higher, the Fed would use its tools to bring inflation down, Powell said. When the public expects higher inflation, economists think this adds to the risk that prices will keep moving higher.

    Aka rates hikes, which would significantly impact tech stocks, housing prices, bonds prices, the dollar, because all are inflated due to expectations of continued low rates.

    You can see the market is slowly pricing in rate hikes here and here, but there is often a delay between the bond market pricing in yields and stock markets pricing in yields.

    Typically tech stocks don't gradually adjust but crash suddenly as everyone tries to rush out the same exit.

    1. HotPants
      Link Parent
      Inflation will be transitory but also persistent.... Think Everything’s Expensive Now? Get Ready for What’s Next

      Inflation will be transitory but also persistent....
      Think Everything’s Expensive Now? Get Ready for What’s Next

      Consumers around the world are about to get socked with even higher prices on everyday items, companies from food giant Unilever Plc to lubricant maker WD-40 Co. warned this week as they grapple with supply difficulties.