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Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of October 18
This thread is posted weekly - please try to post all relevant US political content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Extremely significant events may warrant a separate topic, but almost all should be posted in here.
This is an inherently political thread; please try to avoid antagonistic arguments and bickering matches. Comment threads that devolve into unproductive arguments may be removed so that the overall topic is able to continue.
"Arbitrary centrism" is the perfect description, and it perfectly encapsulate how I felt when Manchin demanded progressives jettison all but one of Biden's three proposed safety net policies for families (namely the expanded child tax credit, the subsidies for pre-k childcare, and paid family leave).
It's difficult to take Manchin's concern seriously when the extent of his reasoning appears to be more spending = more bad. I mean, the three policies would all cost differently, so arbitrarily constraining Biden's agenda to number of policies rather than total cost doesn't make much sense. (And even when Manchin does attempt to constrain the total cost, that feels just as arbitrary -- why limit spending to 1.5 trillion USD? Just because it's a comfy, round number?)
Meanwhile, people actually are struggling to make ends meet. Manchin is more concerned about imagined problems than real, measurable ones.
Edit: of course, there probably should be a spending limit at some number. If I were in Joe Manchin's shoes and sincerely concerned about excess spending, I'd be consulting with experts to determine where the limit lies. And if that limit were indeed at 1.5 trillion USD, I'd certainly try to explain why to my colleagues.
But as far as I'm aware, Manchin hasn't done any of that. Manchin has yet to justify why spending 1.5 trillion USD is acceptable while spending 2 trillion USD is not.
(But maybe I missed it -- if someone knows how Manchin came to the 1.5 trillion USD figure, please let me know!)
A record number of Americans are quitting their jobs
There is a power shift to the millenial workers.
Millennials will have the ability to outvote boomers in a decade in the USA.
America isn't running out of everything just because of a supply-chain crisis. America is running out of everything because Americans are buying so much stuff.
Dollar wavering as global inflation surges; kiwi jumps
NZ is seeing inflation which is impacting the dollar as expectations are other countries will have to raise rates, making them a more appealing place to store your money (if you have any.)
Billionaire investor Carl Icahn warns a market crisis is brewing...
Slightly relevant to this political news thread as Bidens additional spending will be blamed if inflation hits and the economy tanks.
GDP estimates are on a downward trend
The model is based on manufacturer sentiment surveys, and isn't always accurate until the advanced gdp number comes out a few months after the quarter, but the graph also shows a downward trend in blue chip consensus.
Fed’s Powell says elevated inflation could last well into next year
You can see the effect that fed asset purchases has had on stocks here and here is the same view through the lens of yoy % changed. Tapering is a huge deal.
"transitory but also persistent" is my new favorite fed speak, right next to irrational exuberance. Shiller should write another book called "transitory but also persistent."
Aka rates hikes, which would significantly impact tech stocks, housing prices, bonds prices, the dollar, because all are inflated due to expectations of continued low rates.
You can see the market is slowly pricing in rate hikes here and here, but there is often a delay between the bond market pricing in yields and stock markets pricing in yields.
Typically tech stocks don't gradually adjust but crash suddenly as everyone tries to rush out the same exit.
Inflation will be transitory but also persistent....
Think Everything’s Expensive Now? Get Ready for What’s Next