Heretofore, I have held the idea that, 1)Russia is a despotic aggressor, 2)Ukraine is largely innocent holder of resources and land, and 3)Ukraine is largely winning due to a combination of pluck and western supplies.

But I heard a recent podcast, however, that caused me to question my line of thinking. The podcast was Chapo Trap House* and they had guest podcasts hosts War Nerd or something, who seem to have some expertise in the slavic world. And they presented a very different narrative. Namely, 1)Ukrainians really want the war to end, even if the country loses some land, 2)There’s tons of corruption in the military, as bad as leaders demanding payment from soldiers to avoid deployment to the front lines, 3)There are fascist units in the military, and they shake down the civilians, 4) Zelensky was of a mind to deal with Russia until Biden asked him not to, 5)Russias economy is very resilient and has adapted to sanctions, and 6)Russia has been very adept at neutralizing new western military tech, and 7) there is a conspiracy of silence about Ukrainian casualties. Side note, there may be problematic funding of all the open source intelligence arms, especially bellingcat, by US Governemtnt intelligence interests.

I managed to confirm at least partially one of the objections:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html

But some of the claims seem less strong:

https://kyivindependent.com/a-very-bloody-war-what-is-the-death-toll-of-russias-war-in-ukraine/

Mixed on some of the others:

https://theintercept.com/2024/06/22/ukraine-azov-battalion-us-training-ban/

The podcast was a useful reminder, at least, to retain a humility about my beliefs, and that news media is especially suspect in our present moment.

It’s not like I have any power to influence the outcome, but I do still buy into the myth that a responsible citizen retains some degree of information about events around them. My query to tildes is, what’s your narrative about the war, and what sources of information are you drawing upon?

*I’m vaguely aware that there’s somce controversy around these guys. I find the podcast entertaining, however, and they seem to share some of my values about how a sane society would function, and, like this report, they sometimes really challenge my understanding of what I think is going on.

A friend shared a troubling website with me. I'm not 100% sure why I found the site so troubling, but one thing that stands out is its slick sophistication. There are two primary facets to this sophistication: the organization and the presentation. https://defeatthemandatesdc.com.

The presentation is, at very first glance, about what I would expect from a leftist or progressive group. It didn't take long for me to detect something was off, and an a quick reading of what they are after confirms it's neither leftist nor progressive. But that very first impression, which was followed by a sense of confusion as part of my subconscious detected the true message, was unique for me, I can usually detect political bias instantaneously. (This is a curse more than anything else, a symptom born from trauma, but that's another discussion.)

Regarding the organization, it seems focussed and professional. There's some real effort and intellegince both behind the design and messaging at least. If that is representative of a larger effort, that indicates significant funding and effective organization skills at play. I can't quite articulate what's differnt from previous and ongoing, similar efforts. There's something, fundamentally different here that projects real power, depth, and sophistication, and that is deeply disturbing. Efforts like whatever was behind Jan 6 seem chaotic and angry. This effort feels more collected, dispassionate, focussed, and expansive.