Good for them. The people involved with SpaceShipOne and SpaceShipTwo have had a difficult and sometimes tragic path and they're notable for making the first privately funded human space flight...
Good for them. The people involved with SpaceShipOne and SpaceShipTwo have had a difficult and sometimes tragic path and they're notable for making the first privately funded human space flight back in 2004 and winning the X Prize for making a second flight to space with the same craft shortly after. They've achieved their place in history—quite literally, as SpaceShipOne is displayed in the Smithsonian along with the Spirit of St. Louis, the Mercury Friendship 7 capsule, and others.
That being said, it feels like this program (currently under Virgin Galactic) never lived up to its promise and I'm not sure what niche it expects to fill considering the progress made by SpaceX and others. The idea behind the X Prize was that it would encourage development of technologies to bring down the cost of access to space by promoting relatively cheap and reusable private spacecraft. Virgin Galactic hasn't come close to that in the 14 years since the X Prize win. SpaceShipTwo is only capable of a suborbital flight (i.e. it can't stay in space, let alone escape Earth's gravity), it can't carry much mass, and each flight depends on a highly skilled human pilot getting things just right.
That last point especially is a confounding design choice. Space flight is hard and when lives are at stake there's no room for error. Other new space companies like SpaceX or Blue Origin can afford to push the envelope and lose a few rockets; SpaceX might lose some customer good will since they often try new technologies on paying flights, and Blue Origin with their "slow and steady" approach won't lose anything more than some of Jeff Bezos's pocket change. Also, in terms of capability, it seems like an outdated approach. Computers are better than people at space flight: they react faster, they can take in more information, they're predictable, they never have off-days, and you can get a new computer more easily than you can train a new pilot.
I'm excited for any new development in human space flight or the commercial use of space. I think space is our future and I want that future to come sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, Virgin Galactic's current efforts feel like a dead-end and I can't really get excited or feel hopeful about them.
Yeah, Blue Origin did it right, frankly. Their suborbital technologies are directly extensible to their orbital rocket approach. They acquire knowledge & make a bit of pocket change at the same...
Yeah, Blue Origin did it right, frankly. Their suborbital technologies are directly extensible to their orbital rocket approach. They acquire knowledge & make a bit of pocket change at the same time by launching tourists and payloads on suborbital flights that can be re-applied when they build their full-scale, orbital reusable launch vehicle.
I, like you, appreciate Virgin Galactic's desires and hopes, but they've gone down a bit of a dead end. SpaceShipTwo uses a hybrid, not liquid rocket engine; doesn't actually reach the 100km Karman line they originally hoped for, and has wings & other lifting body technologies that are not directly relevant to orbital flight. They tried to kind of make an effort to get there by developing LauncherOne, which was going to be air-launched from a WhiteKnightTwo aircraft, just like SpaceShipTwo, but the rocket became too heavy so now they're launching from a 747.
A scattering of disparate technologies in cross-disciplinary fields with no obvious steps forward to iterate towards anything orbital.
If they'd gotten off the ground sooner, I feel like they could have carved out a niche for themselves, but at this late date I'm skeptical that the market for sub-orbital hops is really big enough...
If they'd gotten off the ground sooner, I feel like they could have carved out a niche for themselves, but at this late date I'm skeptical that the market for sub-orbital hops is really big enough to support them financially. I mean it's not unlikely that SpaceX will have sent tourists on week long flights to cislunar space before Virgin manages to skip some tourists out of the atmosphere for a few minutes. That means that they're going to be catering to an incredibly small section of people who have just enough money to go to space, but not enough to book even an orbital flight.
At this point, still early in the conquest of space, I think that every approach, especially when commercially motivated, is worth pursuing. The more the better at this stage.
At this point, still early in the conquest of space, I think that every approach, especially when commercially motivated, is worth pursuing. The more the better at this stage.
Good for them. The people involved with SpaceShipOne and SpaceShipTwo have had a difficult and sometimes tragic path and they're notable for making the first privately funded human space flight back in 2004 and winning the X Prize for making a second flight to space with the same craft shortly after. They've achieved their place in history—quite literally, as SpaceShipOne is displayed in the Smithsonian along with the Spirit of St. Louis, the Mercury Friendship 7 capsule, and others.
That being said, it feels like this program (currently under Virgin Galactic) never lived up to its promise and I'm not sure what niche it expects to fill considering the progress made by SpaceX and others. The idea behind the X Prize was that it would encourage development of technologies to bring down the cost of access to space by promoting relatively cheap and reusable private spacecraft. Virgin Galactic hasn't come close to that in the 14 years since the X Prize win. SpaceShipTwo is only capable of a suborbital flight (i.e. it can't stay in space, let alone escape Earth's gravity), it can't carry much mass, and each flight depends on a highly skilled human pilot getting things just right.
That last point especially is a confounding design choice. Space flight is hard and when lives are at stake there's no room for error. Other new space companies like SpaceX or Blue Origin can afford to push the envelope and lose a few rockets; SpaceX might lose some customer good will since they often try new technologies on paying flights, and Blue Origin with their "slow and steady" approach won't lose anything more than some of Jeff Bezos's pocket change. Also, in terms of capability, it seems like an outdated approach. Computers are better than people at space flight: they react faster, they can take in more information, they're predictable, they never have off-days, and you can get a new computer more easily than you can train a new pilot.
I'm excited for any new development in human space flight or the commercial use of space. I think space is our future and I want that future to come sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, Virgin Galactic's current efforts feel like a dead-end and I can't really get excited or feel hopeful about them.
Yeah, Blue Origin did it right, frankly. Their suborbital technologies are directly extensible to their orbital rocket approach. They acquire knowledge & make a bit of pocket change at the same time by launching tourists and payloads on suborbital flights that can be re-applied when they build their full-scale, orbital reusable launch vehicle.
I, like you, appreciate Virgin Galactic's desires and hopes, but they've gone down a bit of a dead end. SpaceShipTwo uses a hybrid, not liquid rocket engine; doesn't actually reach the 100km Karman line they originally hoped for, and has wings & other lifting body technologies that are not directly relevant to orbital flight. They tried to kind of make an effort to get there by developing LauncherOne, which was going to be air-launched from a WhiteKnightTwo aircraft, just like SpaceShipTwo, but the rocket became too heavy so now they're launching from a 747.
A scattering of disparate technologies in cross-disciplinary fields with no obvious steps forward to iterate towards anything orbital.
If they'd gotten off the ground sooner, I feel like they could have carved out a niche for themselves, but at this late date I'm skeptical that the market for sub-orbital hops is really big enough to support them financially. I mean it's not unlikely that SpaceX will have sent tourists on week long flights to cislunar space before Virgin manages to skip some tourists out of the atmosphere for a few minutes. That means that they're going to be catering to an incredibly small section of people who have just enough money to go to space, but not enough to book even an orbital flight.
At this point, still early in the conquest of space, I think that every approach, especially when commercially motivated, is worth pursuing. The more the better at this stage.