An aside: visit Taiwan before it's too late. It's a uniquely nice place with nice people. It's also much more liberal, open-minded, and cosmopolitan than any other East Asian society. (Granted,...
An aside: visit Taiwan before it's too late. It's a uniquely nice place with nice people. It's also much more liberal, open-minded, and cosmopolitan than any other East Asian society. (Granted, it's no Sweden and there isn't a really high bar in an otherwise very conservative region.)
The Ukraine War and the impending Taiwan crisis have an important commonality: both countries either gave up or ceased developing nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances. In Ukraine's case, those assurances weren't honored. In Taiwan's case, even though the U.S. pledges to defend it, it's increasingly unlikely that the American public will be okay with spilling American blood to war with China.
This is terrible. This shows to the world that security assurances are worthless, and that nuclear weapons are the only way to have real security.
My existential fear is that—putting on my Kissinger hat—China will call the U.S.'s bluff and take Taiwan, and Russia takes Ukraine, and this ends the era of Pax Americana and triggers a new nuclear arms race as nations calculate that true sovereignty and independence comes in having their own nukes and engaging in MAD deterrence, and we end up with a world teetering on the edge of nuclear apocalypse.
My hope is that we can defer the Taiwan issue long enough until enough generations of humans born and die to stop caring about the issue.
Which is why Taiwan has done everything they can to make themselves essential to modern chip manufacturing. The American Public will not factor in too much on if the US joins because the US stands...
In Taiwan's case, even though the U.S. pledges to defend it, it's increasingly unlikely that the American public will be okay with spilling American blood to war with China.
Which is why Taiwan has done everything they can to make themselves essential to modern chip manufacturing. The American Public will not factor in too much on if the US joins because the US stands to lose access to the chips that power just about every facet of life and war should China take the island.
Until we have an alternative source for those chips (which is likely going to take at least a decade) there's no way in hell the US will just watch China invade Taiwan. There will be a lot of screaming about how "unfair" it is but it will happen. Hell it's probably the only war that the US would force a draft for.
I think that Taiwan's "silicon moat" will last only 10–20 years, as other countries have now realized that modern chip manufacturing is a critical industry to homeshore and are mobilizing...
I think that Taiwan's "silicon moat" will last only 10–20 years, as other countries have now realized that modern chip manufacturing is a critical industry to homeshore and are mobilizing significant resources to accomplish that.
But I think that 10–20 years, we'll see China's current leadership's direct proteges in power with little shift in fundamental ideology, i.e. revitalize the nation and undo the century of (Western & Japanese) humiliation. We may need more like 50+ years for sufficient generational turnover, for Chinese to think, so what, that was all ancient history, let's focus on more interesting contemporary issues like lunar colonization, genetic engineering, and AI-driven post-scarcity economics.
Taiwan doesn't just offer chips (everyone has chips), they offer the cutting-edge chips. As long as TSMC stays well ahead of all their competitors, then their silicon moat will remain....
I think that Taiwan's "silicon moat" will last only 10–20 years, as other countries have now realized that modern chip manufacturing is a critical industry to homeshore and are mobilizing significant resources to accomplish that.
Taiwan doesn't just offer chips (everyone has chips), they offer the cutting-edge chips. As long as TSMC stays well ahead of all their competitors, then their silicon moat will remain.
Cutting-edge chips matter for things like aircraft, where tech advantages can be nonlinear (i.e. if you outrange your opponent in detection range even a little bit, then you're launching your missile and bolting before they see you, and they're too busy dodging to line up any return-fire and thus you're winning most/all of your battles). For that sort of thing, some 2010-era chip just won't cut it.
I do not have the faith you do in the American public right now. It's proven far too easy to spin any topic in such a way that a sizable portion of Americans will rally behind a cause that is...
I do not have the faith you do in the American public right now.
It's proven far too easy to spin any topic in such a way that a sizable portion of Americans will rally behind a cause that is clearly against American interests.
I think I was unclear because the American public’s opinion will absolutely not matter. There are far far far too many implications that would come with losing Taiwan for any government or...
I think I was unclear because the American public’s opinion will absolutely not matter. There are far far far too many implications that would come with losing Taiwan for any government or military to even consider ignoring
Taiwan is nice. It’s like China with Japanese manners. In terms of comparisons with Ukraine, Taiwan has two advantages: they’re much better prepared, and they’re an island. Ukrainians thought the...
Taiwan is nice. It’s like China with Japanese manners.
In terms of comparisons with Ukraine, Taiwan has two advantages: they’re much better prepared, and they’re an island. Ukrainians thought the US was making shit up literally up to the night before Russia invaded. Taiwan has mandatory conscription and has thought about an invasion from mainland China basically from when the KMT took it over.
Secondly, being an island means that US naval and air support is substantially more effective even if there aren’t American boots in Taiwan. The US is also ready and positioned to defend, whereas with Ukraine there was always the awkwardness of not escalating.
I like War On The Rocks, it’s one of the few subscriptions I have. But it’s worth remembering that national security focused institutes often tend to be fairly hawkish and bullish on war...
I like War On The Rocks, it’s one of the few subscriptions I have. But it’s worth remembering that national security focused institutes often tend to be fairly hawkish and bullish on war prospects. It comes with the territory and it’s what they do. There is a pretty massive debate going on in the China watching community, even the national security side of things about just how likely it is for China to go to war over Taiwan anytime soon. It’s definitely not as clear cut as this article makes it out to be. The current situation benefits China and there are reasons for China and XI to be doing what they’re doing that don’t involve them actually invading Taiwan in the next 5-10 years. Though of course it shouldn’t be completely dismissed. It’s worth remembering that history is littered with examples where two sides end up so fearful that the other will do something big and drastic that they end up starting a war that no one really wants. All to say that it’s worthwhile still to be a bit measured and thoughtful about what it is exactly that we think is a given.
Absolutely, also worth pointing out that Studeman was until recently the Director of Intelligence of the United States Indo-Pacific Command. Definitely someone to listen to, but also like you...
Absolutely, also worth pointing out that Studeman was until recently the Director of Intelligence of the United States Indo-Pacific Command. Definitely someone to listen to, but also like you suggest it was literally his job to be prepared for the worst case. I'm sure, to some extent, that relies on (over) priming the public/political apparatus.
I found it disconcerting that the link for "the People’s Liberation Army has since built vast underground complexes" goes to the Daily Mail. Is there better evidence for that somewhere? If true,...
I found it disconcerting that the link for "the People’s Liberation Army has since built vast underground complexes" goes to the Daily Mail.
Is there better evidence for that somewhere? If true, it seems like interesting reading.
Not really - putting military complexes underground is really obvious; everyone knows where everything above-ground is, thanks to satellite imagery, and concrete is expensive and...
Is there better evidence for that somewhere? If true, it seems like interesting reading.
Not really - putting military complexes underground is really obvious; everyone knows where everything above-ground is, thanks to satellite imagery, and concrete is expensive and not-overly-necessary when you can build your bunker under 50 metres of solid rock.
Sure, but there’s a difference between saying they likely have them (it’s reasonable, but still speculation) and showing that there’s evidence confirming it.
Sure, but there’s a difference between saying they likely have them (it’s reasonable, but still speculation) and showing that there’s evidence confirming it.
My point here is that it doesn't make a lot of sense for a news article to mention it in the first place - it's a given. It's like reporting that Chinese troops have been practicing digging...
My point here is that it doesn't make a lot of sense for a news article to mention it in the first place - it's a given. It's like reporting that Chinese troops have been practicing digging trenches: yes, so what? How is that relevant to anything? Military gonna military.
We do technically have evidence, by the way - all their missile silos are underground, which includes not only the silo itself but also the accompanying infrastructure (the point of a silo is that the big metal door stays closed and relatively bomb-proofed except the moment the missile launches; building everything underground is a key part of making the facility able to hopefully survive a nuke).
Again though, this is not interesting or surprising.
Ah, I see. Yes, maybe it’s not too surprising. But I’m still curious. If there were an in-depth story explaining what’s known about what the Chinese military is doing, I would read it.
Ah, I see. Yes, maybe it’s not too surprising. But I’m still curious. If there were an in-depth story explaining what’s known about what the Chinese military is doing, I would read it.
Chinese war drums beat on as pundits hotly debate if or when Beijing will try to seize Taiwan by force. There is no apparent countdown to D-day for initiating a blockade or invasion, but major strategic indicators clearly show that General Secretary Xi Jinping is still preparing his country for a showdown. Developments under way suggest Taiwan will face an existential crisis in single-digit years, most likely in the back half of the 2020s or front half of the 2030s.
This has some pretty significant impact for the US though no? It seems like this would be direct conflict with United States interests vs Ukraine that doesn't hold the same priority.
This has some pretty significant impact for the US though no? It seems like this would be direct conflict with United States interests vs Ukraine that doesn't hold the same priority.
In today's world, ten years is a long time away, it's hard to say what the world will look like at that point. It's already pretty starkly different from ten years ago. I think how involved the US...
In today's world, ten years is a long time away, it's hard to say what the world will look like at that point. It's already pretty starkly different from ten years ago.
I think how involved the US will be is a function of a lot of different parameters, but here's the biggest in my opinion:
How much uptake the isolationist and/or authoritarian-aligned American politicians get. It's a backseat relative to Ukraine and Israel, but you can already see variations of 'why' being invoked under various false pretenses.
How willing Taiwan is to fight. Kind of an open question, there has been a lot of attention on this in the last couple of years.
What the status of the American and Chinese semiconductor industry is and how a war with Taiwan would impact each
Turns out that human lives are still irrelevant and nothing changed. What did change is that external pressure is seemingly not enough to deter land grabs anymore. It's not a matter of if, but...
Turns out that human lives are still irrelevant and nothing changed. What did change is that external pressure is seemingly not enough to deter land grabs anymore.
It's not a matter of if, but when.
One big difference between Ukraine and Taiwan is that the US actually voiced their support for Taiwan and has troops/navy stationed there. Whether or not this is just for the defense of chip production is irrelevant.
An aside: visit Taiwan before it's too late. It's a uniquely nice place with nice people. It's also much more liberal, open-minded, and cosmopolitan than any other East Asian society. (Granted, it's no Sweden and there isn't a really high bar in an otherwise very conservative region.)
The Ukraine War and the impending Taiwan crisis have an important commonality: both countries either gave up or ceased developing nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances. In Ukraine's case, those assurances weren't honored. In Taiwan's case, even though the U.S. pledges to defend it, it's increasingly unlikely that the American public will be okay with spilling American blood to war with China.
This is terrible. This shows to the world that security assurances are worthless, and that nuclear weapons are the only way to have real security.
My existential fear is that—putting on my Kissinger hat—China will call the U.S.'s bluff and take Taiwan, and Russia takes Ukraine, and this ends the era of Pax Americana and triggers a new nuclear arms race as nations calculate that true sovereignty and independence comes in having their own nukes and engaging in MAD deterrence, and we end up with a world teetering on the edge of nuclear apocalypse.
My hope is that we can defer the Taiwan issue long enough until enough generations of humans born and die to stop caring about the issue.
Which is why Taiwan has done everything they can to make themselves essential to modern chip manufacturing. The American Public will not factor in too much on if the US joins because the US stands to lose access to the chips that power just about every facet of life and war should China take the island.
Until we have an alternative source for those chips (which is likely going to take at least a decade) there's no way in hell the US will just watch China invade Taiwan. There will be a lot of screaming about how "unfair" it is but it will happen. Hell it's probably the only war that the US would force a draft for.
I think that Taiwan's "silicon moat" will last only 10–20 years, as other countries have now realized that modern chip manufacturing is a critical industry to homeshore and are mobilizing significant resources to accomplish that.
But I think that 10–20 years, we'll see China's current leadership's direct proteges in power with little shift in fundamental ideology, i.e. revitalize the nation and undo the century of (Western & Japanese) humiliation. We may need more like 50+ years for sufficient generational turnover, for Chinese to think, so what, that was all ancient history, let's focus on more interesting contemporary issues like lunar colonization, genetic engineering, and AI-driven post-scarcity economics.
Taiwan doesn't just offer chips (everyone has chips), they offer the cutting-edge chips. As long as TSMC stays well ahead of all their competitors, then their silicon moat will remain.
Cutting-edge chips matter for things like aircraft, where tech advantages can be nonlinear (i.e. if you outrange your opponent in detection range even a little bit, then you're launching your missile and bolting before they see you, and they're too busy dodging to line up any return-fire and thus you're winning most/all of your battles). For that sort of thing, some 2010-era chip just won't cut it.
I do not have the faith you do in the American public right now.
It's proven far too easy to spin any topic in such a way that a sizable portion of Americans will rally behind a cause that is clearly against American interests.
I think I was unclear because the American public’s opinion will absolutely not matter. There are far far far too many implications that would come with losing Taiwan for any government or military to even consider ignoring
Taiwan is nice. It’s like China with Japanese manners.
In terms of comparisons with Ukraine, Taiwan has two advantages: they’re much better prepared, and they’re an island. Ukrainians thought the US was making shit up literally up to the night before Russia invaded. Taiwan has mandatory conscription and has thought about an invasion from mainland China basically from when the KMT took it over.
Secondly, being an island means that US naval and air support is substantially more effective even if there aren’t American boots in Taiwan. The US is also ready and positioned to defend, whereas with Ukraine there was always the awkwardness of not escalating.
They have one major disadvantage :China is likely much stronger and better prepared than Russia.
I like War On The Rocks, it’s one of the few subscriptions I have. But it’s worth remembering that national security focused institutes often tend to be fairly hawkish and bullish on war prospects. It comes with the territory and it’s what they do. There is a pretty massive debate going on in the China watching community, even the national security side of things about just how likely it is for China to go to war over Taiwan anytime soon. It’s definitely not as clear cut as this article makes it out to be. The current situation benefits China and there are reasons for China and XI to be doing what they’re doing that don’t involve them actually invading Taiwan in the next 5-10 years. Though of course it shouldn’t be completely dismissed. It’s worth remembering that history is littered with examples where two sides end up so fearful that the other will do something big and drastic that they end up starting a war that no one really wants. All to say that it’s worthwhile still to be a bit measured and thoughtful about what it is exactly that we think is a given.
Absolutely, also worth pointing out that Studeman was until recently the Director of Intelligence of the United States Indo-Pacific Command. Definitely someone to listen to, but also like you suggest it was literally his job to be prepared for the worst case. I'm sure, to some extent, that relies on (over) priming the public/political apparatus.
I found it disconcerting that the link for "the People’s Liberation Army has since built vast underground complexes" goes to the Daily Mail.
Is there better evidence for that somewhere? If true, it seems like interesting reading.
Not really - putting military complexes underground is really obvious; everyone knows where everything above-ground is, thanks to satellite imagery, and concrete is expensive and not-overly-necessary when you can build your bunker under 50 metres of solid rock.
Sure, but there’s a difference between saying they likely have them (it’s reasonable, but still speculation) and showing that there’s evidence confirming it.
My point here is that it doesn't make a lot of sense for a news article to mention it in the first place - it's a given. It's like reporting that Chinese troops have been practicing digging trenches: yes, so what? How is that relevant to anything? Military gonna military.
We do technically have evidence, by the way - all their missile silos are underground, which includes not only the silo itself but also the accompanying infrastructure (the point of a silo is that the big metal door stays closed and relatively bomb-proofed except the moment the missile launches; building everything underground is a key part of making the facility able to hopefully survive a nuke).
Again though, this is not interesting or surprising.
Ah, I see. Yes, maybe it’s not too surprising. But I’m still curious. If there were an in-depth story explaining what’s known about what the Chinese military is doing, I would read it.
Ukraine part 2: Oriental Boogaloo
China sees Russia is getting most of what they want, and now want their own slice.
This has some pretty significant impact for the US though no? It seems like this would be direct conflict with United States interests vs Ukraine that doesn't hold the same priority.
In today's world, ten years is a long time away, it's hard to say what the world will look like at that point. It's already pretty starkly different from ten years ago.
I think how involved the US will be is a function of a lot of different parameters, but here's the biggest in my opinion:
Turns out that human lives are still irrelevant and nothing changed. What did change is that external pressure is seemingly not enough to deter land grabs anymore.
It's not a matter of if, but when.
One big difference between Ukraine and Taiwan is that the US actually voiced their support for Taiwan and has troops/navy stationed there. Whether or not this is just for the defense of chip production is irrelevant.