falcarius's recent activity

  1. Comment on <deleted topic> in ~news

    falcarius
    Link Parent
    I appreciate your response, but now that I think about it the special election would be after the general right? That sort of invalidates my own point...

    I appreciate your response, but now that I think about it the special election would be after the general right? That sort of invalidates my own point...

    1 vote

  2. Comment on <deleted topic> in ~news

    falcarius
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    Certainly! I probably should have cited that claim. Currently the senate is 53-47, counting Angus King and Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side. States in which the Democrats have the best chance...

    Certainly! I probably should have cited that claim.

    Currently the senate is 53-47, counting Angus King and Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side. States in which the Democrats have the best chance of gaining a seat (I'm looking at this) are Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina, and they have to try to hold Alabama. Out of those five they need to win at least four to have a majority (with the VP as tiebreaker). Maine, North Carolina, and Alabama are all leaning Republican and incumbents tend to be reelected. Additionally, betting odds give democrats about a 1 in 3 chance of retaking the senate.

    But, if there is a leftward trend across the country and it does happen, I think (I can't cite anything for this) the Wisconsin election is very likely to go to the Democrat given that he/she will not be competing against an incumbent, in which case it is irrelevant whether Sen. Baldwin is running or not.

    Your second question is a good one and I will try to tackle it. Remember that most legislation in the Senate can be blocked by a filibuster, which requires 60 votes to stop, and Sanders has gone on record saying that he is not willing to ditch the filibuster rule. So the only way he plans to pass any legislation even if he takes the senate is through budget reconciliation, which is not subject to the filibuster but is somewhat limited in what can be included and can only be done once a year.

    And there are some things that can (supposedly) be done by executive action, such as legalizing marijuana and expunging past convictions. The president also has a lot of control over military actions, and could reduce military presence abroad. It's also possible that the Democrats regain control of the senate in 2022, where there are some seats open that are favorable for them.

    I am by no means an expert but that's how I see the senate race right now. I hope that the Senate turns blue in 2020, but it's hard to make a fact-based argument that that is likely.

    4 votes

  3. Comment on <deleted topic> in ~news

    falcarius
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    This is a concern of mine as well, but I still think that Baldwin as VP would be a good choice for a few reasons: It's pretty unlikely that the Democrats will retake the Senate anyway....

    This is a concern of mine as well, but I still think that Baldwin as VP would be a good choice for a few reasons:

    1. It's pretty unlikely that the Democrats will retake the Senate anyway. Optimistically we're looking at a gain of 3 seats and a loss of 1 - making the composition 51-49.

    2. I think that votes for a strong presidential ticket will "trickle down," so to speak, to down-ticket races. Specifically, I find it hard to see Wisconsin voting for Bernie/Baldwin and also voting for a non-incumbent Republican in the same election.

    3. Going along with the last point, Wisconsin is almost certainly going to be one of, if not the deciding factor in the presidential election. I think it's important to have a vice presidential nominee who can speak to disenchanted voters to whom a populist like trump is appealing.

    Edit: I just realized that the special election would probably not take place at the same time as the general election.

    6 votes

  4. Comment on Fitness Weekly Discussion in ~health

    falcarius
    Link Parent
    I understand what you meant, but I think it's important to say that your BMI is not higher than average. It is in the upper half of 'healthy' BMIs. The average person is actually overweight.

    I understand what you meant, but I think it's important to say that your BMI is not higher than average. It is in the upper half of 'healthy' BMIs. The average person is actually overweight.

    2 votes

  5. Comment on A masterclass from New Zealand in responding to terror in ~misc

    falcarius
    Link Parent
    It's actually pretty uncommon to guarantee the right to bear arms in law. Most countries, New Zealand included, sort of allow guns by default and later pass legislation to regulate them. See...

    It's actually pretty uncommon to guarantee the right to bear arms in law. Most countries, New Zealand included, sort of allow guns by default and later pass legislation to regulate them. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_to_keep_and_bear_arms and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_laws_in_New_Zealand

    7 votes