California, USA must triple its rate of carbon emissions reductions to reach 2030 target, report says

Some US states like California have specifically pledged to significantly reduce their carbon emissions by 2030 (only six years away). While their goals are admirable, real-world policy and investment in a green and sustainable future has not been on-track to meet those targets on schedule.

California Air Resources Board (CARB) data shows that the state’s yearly greenhouse gas emissions increased 3.4 percent in 2021, while an early estimate by CARB shows emissions began decreasing the following year.

The new report said the promotion of zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs) and buildings, as well as renewable sources of energy, must be accelerated to meet California’s goal of reducing emissions to 40 percent of 1990 levels by the end of the decade. To achieve this, the state would need to move from an average yearly reduction of roughly 1.5 percent to about 4.6 percent. However, as 2023 emissions data is not yet available, the percentage may be higher.

Transportation emissions in California — which went up 7.4 percent from 2020 to 2021 — make up almost 40 percent of its carbon footprint. Overall emissions from heavy-duty trucks, cars and other vehicles went down more than 10 percent from 2019 to 2021, which illustrates the state’s success in reducing its biggest pollution source. Heavy-duty vehicle emissions fell 14.1 percent from 2018 to 2021.

“To meet our upcoming target of 50% of electricity from renewable sources by 2026, we need to double the speed we are adding RPSeligible renewables to our power mix, from 4.3% per year to 8.7% per year.”

ZEVs made up one-quarter of all new vehicle sales last year, an all-time high for the state. California also reached its 2025 ZEV onroad goal of 1.5 million in April of 2023, two years ahead of target. If the trajectory stays the same, it will meet its five million ZEV target for 2030 a year early.

Recent government policy changes:

A new goal for decarbonization of the power sector was adopted by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) in February 2024. It calls for a 58 percent reduction in emissions by 2035, as compared to 2020 levels. In order to achieve the goal, the state needs to lower power emissions by 6.3 percent yearly from 2021 to 2035, according to Beacon Economics — almost twice the 3.5 percent average rate from 2011 to 2021. From 2020 to 2021, there was an upward trend of 4.8 percent.

In my opinion, California's commitments to do things like ban the production of fossil fuel-powered vehicles by 2035 has done a lot to change behavior of major manufacturers across the country. This is important because, whether or not the state is perfectly on-time with reaching its goals, their intentions are still taken seriously. The state is very serious about decarbonization considering it is one of the only ones in the union with a dedicated and powerful Air Resources Board. Its governor, legislature, and voter base support decarbonization and it has demonstrated an ability to lead the way in several industries, notably transportation.

I also find it significant that many states tie their own environmental regulations to California's. The state has an outsized impact on American emissions for this reason. The more aggressive its actual legislation (not just imaginary targets), the more the green transition can accelerate nationwide.

I'm not sure CA will be able to literally triple its movement toward sustainability quite this fast, but it's possible. The cost of renewable energy continues to plummet, even as the state has ended some subsidies for solar energy, and breakthroughs in battery storage technology happen frequently. Funding from Joe Biden's 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and 2021 Infrastructure Jobs and Investment Act have been recent sources of billions of dollars in green investment in California. When these investments start to pay off in the next few years, emissions in the state could drop significantly.