22 votes

Solar to meet half of global electricity demand growth in 2024 and 2025

Posted by scroll_lock
Tags: energy.renewable, electricity, solar power, demand.growing, 2020s, author.michelle lewis, source.electrek
https://electrek.co/2024/07/18/electricity-demand-growth-at-its-highest-in-two-decades-and-solar-will-meet-half-the-increase/

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Authors
Michelle Lewis, Fred Lambert, Sponsored Post, Jo Borrás
Published
Jul 19 2024
Word count
687 words

4 comments

  1. scroll_lock
    Link
    Comment box Scope: summary, personal reaction Tone: neutral, confident Opinion: yes Sarcasm/humor: none I see much reason to be optimistic about our renewable energy future. My optimism is...
    Comment box
    • Scope: summary, personal reaction
    • Tone: neutral, confident
    • Opinion: yes
    • Sarcasm/humor: none

    I see much reason to be optimistic about our renewable energy future. My optimism is informed by data:

    Global electricity demand is rising at its fastest rate in two decades, but solar is on course to meet half of demand growth, says the IEA.

    According to this article, solar by itself will meet 50% of ALL NEW ELECTRICITY DEMAND: not just comparing it to other renewables. That's an enormous contribution by a single source.

    Overall demand growth is significant but not impossibly high:

    Global electricity demand is forecast to grow by around 4% in 2024, up from 2.5% in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) newly released “Electricity Mid-Year Update” report. .... The increase in global electricity consumption is set to continue into 2025, with growth at around 4% again, according to the report.

    Total electricity generated by renewables is surpassing major fossil fuels and will only continue to grow.

    Renewables are also set to expand rapidly this year and next, with their share of global electricity supply forecast to rise from 30% in 2023 to 35% in 2025. The amount of electricity generated by renewables worldwide in 2025 is forecast to eclipse the amount generated by coal for the first time. Solar alone is expected to meet roughly half of the growth in global electricity demand in 2024 and 2025 – with solar and wind combined meeting as much as 75% of growth.

    The article notes that even though fossil fuels will make up smaller portions of the energy mix, absolute fossil fuel use/emissions in developing countries isn't necessarily going to decline in this period because there is greater demand for electricity overall:

    Despite the rapid renewables increase, global power generation from coal is unlikely to drop this year due to demand growth, especially in China and India, according to the report. As a result, CO2 emissions from the global power sector are plateauing, with a slight increase in 2024 followed by a decline in 2025.

    I believe this, but it's also worth noting that solar as blown past every projection about its growth for the past 20 years and continues to do so. Seeing how cost-competitive it is, and also seeing how many novel energy storage solutions are coming onto the market, I'm all but certain that solar will dominate.

    8 votes
  2. [3]
    FarraigePlaisteach
    Link
    But 50% of the growth is just 50% of the increase in recent years, isn’t it? When I read it I don’t think it’s saying that it’s set to meet 50% of actual demand.

    But 50% of the growth is just 50% of the increase in recent years, isn’t it? When I read it I don’t think it’s saying that it’s set to meet 50% of actual demand.

    1 vote
    1. [2]
      scroll_lock
      Link Parent
      Comment box Scope: providing information Tone: neutral Opinion: none Sarcasm/humor: none Yes, the article is saying that solar power will meet 50% of the increase (growth/delta) in demand this...
      Comment box
      • Scope: providing information
      • Tone: neutral
      • Opinion: none
      • Sarcasm/humor: none

      Yes, the article is saying that solar power will meet 50% of the increase (growth/delta) in demand this year.

      In other words, we know that the grid requires X amount of new generation capacity this year, because we are doing more stuff that requires energy. We can provide this energy in many ways, and historically did so via fossil fuels. The news is that solar power is making up an increasingly large chunk of this delta. In past years, solar power would only have been 5% or 10% or 20% of new capacity. Now it's 50%.

      In other other words, more new solar/renewable capacity is being installed than new fossil fuel capacity.

      This metric isn't tracking shutdowns of existing fossil fuel infrastructure. It's just looking at what's being built. So you're correct that this metric does not track absolute emissions, which the article points out.

      8 votes
      1. FarraigePlaisteach
        Link Parent
        Thank you for clarifying for me. I had hoped - and for some reason assumed - that solar would be ahead of the delta at the very least. Still, the trend with fossil fuels does sound encouraging.

        Thank you for clarifying for me. I had hoped - and for some reason assumed - that solar would be ahead of the delta at the very least. Still, the trend with fossil fuels does sound encouraging.