After grid and permitting issues, the next challenge for PV is power price cannibalization. Basically, solar plants in one area all generate at the same time. So they reduce the price of power at that time, “cannibalizing” their own revenues.
…
By 2030 most countries will have spot power prices of zero in sunny hours. This will be passed on to end consumers, to encourage them to shift power demand to sunny periods by electric vehicle and battery charging, preheating, precooling, etc.
Low power prices may be great for consumers but they are very bad if you're trying to build more clean power plants. Without demand-side flexibility measures, the energy transition will fail before fully pushing fossil fuel out of the mix.
…
It may be that "negative power prices for a few hours every sunny day, followed by high evening power prices when the sun goes down" is a problem solved by capitalism and batteries.
However, there is no way we can build a big enough battery to shift energy from summer to winter. The economics of battery storage are impossible at one cycle a year.
We oughtta be building more wind. Seriously, solar will get built anyway, but wind needs some help, and wind blows in the dark and in the winter. Solar usually hurts wind farm economics even though generation is somewhat anti-correlated.
…
batteries get lower utilization rates the more you build. Batteries cannibalize batteries long before you get 100% clean power.
…
Heatpumps are better for heating homes than hydrogen, but in seasonal climates like northern Europe will exacerbate the seasonal demand and supply mismatch for solar. We need to build wind and probably nuclear as well.
Nuclear is safer than coal and climate change, and better than gas unless the gas plants are running very rarely. Batteries should help with the unfavourable ramping economics of nuclear (you can turn nuclear plants up and down, but you really don’t want to).
…
Ordinary people have no idea how much progress we’ve made. Tell people at parties that UK carbon emissions in 2023 were at their lowest level since 1879, for example. Most developed economies are now reducing carbon emissions without lowering quality of life.
…
The US Inflation Reduction Act includes a licence to print money for solar manufacturers and hydrogen firms. It’s good for clean energy, but it's also like hitting the accelerator on a car with the handbrake on. The handbrake is trade barriers, grid and permitting issues.
…
Get your rooftop solar system built when you have scaffolding up for something else, 'cos scaffolding is expensive. Ideally build it when you’re building the roof, there will never be a better time. Rooftop solar mandates are good and should be more common.
Some quotes:
…
…
…
…
…
…
…