Last week, the International Energy Agency published its annual World Energy Outlook, a comprehensive review of the likely paths that supply and demand for fossil fuels and renewable sources of energy would follow up to 2050. Buried in the 398-page report was a warning: “The outlook for coal has been revised upwards particularly for the coming decade, principally as a result of updated electricity demand projections, notably from China and India.”
It wasn’t a small revision: Coal consumption in 2030 is now estimated 6% higher than only a year ago. That may sound small, but it amounts to adding the equivalent of the consumption of Japan, the world’s fourth-largest coal burner. By 2030, the IEA now believes coal consumption will remain higher than it was back in 2010.
This was an important change in what was otherwise an upbeat report. Wind and solar continue to expand faster than many thought, including the IEA. As a result, they are increasingly growing their market share. [...]
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One notable statistic: Two-thirds of the total increase in energy demand in 2023 was met by fossil fuels, according to the IEA.
Yes, clean power is the future. For now, however, fossil fuels remain the present — especially when electricity demand is accelerating this fast. Between 2023 and 2030, electricity consumption is expected to grow six times faster than total energy demand, compared with two times faster in the 2010-2023 period and 1.4 times faster in 2000-2010. According to the IEA, the equivalent of the electricity use of the world’s 10 largest cities is being added to global demand each year.
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The acceleration isn’t about artificial intelligence and data centers as is often lamented. If anything, they would account for a fraction of the increase in consumption. Demand for power is coming from everywhere, notably electric vehicles, air-conditioning and even water desalination.
The epicenter of the electricity boom is Asia, so it makes sense that the world’s two largest coal consumers, China and India, not only aren’t abandoning coal, but are still building more coal-fired power stations. The result is an energy transition that is more polluting than many had hoped.
From the opinion article (archive):
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