I made some money on predictions markets right after the 2020 election, mostly on betting against Donald Trump’s cabinet being in office in 2021 even though the election had already happened by...
I made some money on predictions markets right after the 2020 election, mostly on betting against Donald Trump’s cabinet being in office in 2021 even though the election had already happened by that point and Joe Biden was the presumptive winner. I wondered why there wasn’t more confidence in the markets at the time that Joe Biden was going to be the president. I always thought Trump supporters were crazy but this was truly unhinged entertaining a 20% possibility that Bill Barr will be Attorney General on February 1st, i was sure there was some other explanation.
One thing that seems plausible to me is there’s a lot of rules and limits about transferring money into the market (at least the one I used). This can create some strange economics, where if you want to get into a new market that just was posted that you’re interested in, you might have to sell off some of your unresolved shares, which can make it seem like suddenly a bunch of people got cold feet about the idea that Bill Barr won’t be AG in February.
I made some money on predictions markets right after the 2020 election, mostly on betting against Donald Trump’s cabinet being in office in 2021 even though the election had already happened by that point and Joe Biden was the presumptive winner. I wondered why there wasn’t more confidence in the markets at the time that Joe Biden was going to be the president. I always thought Trump supporters were crazy but this was truly unhinged entertaining a 20% possibility that Bill Barr will be Attorney General on February 1st, i was sure there was some other explanation.
One thing that seems plausible to me is there’s a lot of rules and limits about transferring money into the market (at least the one I used). This can create some strange economics, where if you want to get into a new market that just was posted that you’re interested in, you might have to sell off some of your unresolved shares, which can make it seem like suddenly a bunch of people got cold feet about the idea that Bill Barr won’t be AG in February.