This analysis had a bunch of interesting things I didn't know about representative's motivations, which makes the current crisis much easier to understand.
This analysis had a bunch of interesting things I didn't know about representative's motivations, which makes the current crisis much easier to understand.
This was an incredibly enlightening article that led me down many similarly informative rabbit holes with its numerous sourced references to other people and events. Thank you for sharing!
This was an incredibly enlightening article that led me down many similarly informative rabbit holes with its numerous sourced references to other people and events.
I've always heard this saying that roughly goes, "In parliamentary systems, coalitions are made after elections, while in the American system, coalitions are made before elections." And I think...
I've always heard this saying that roughly goes, "In parliamentary systems, coalitions are made after elections, while in the American system, coalitions are made before elections." And I think this crisis in the House demonstrates that well. They may all be under the banner of the Republican Party, but they really are a coalition of flavors or shades of conservatism. And the same goes for Democrats; Progressives versus Blue Dogs, for example.
The author gets into it in the end, but I still feel like this is pretty damning for the McHenry option. When the continuing resolution expires, who is going to take charge of negotiations? What...
This is why it never made any sense for McCarthy to seek Democratic votes to bail him out when his partisan procedural coalition was failing. If Democrats had helped McCarthy win the Speakership in January—perhaps by voting present, as many observers suggested they could do in exchange for some goodies—it might have won him the office, but it would have left him in the exact same bind on the very next vote (the vote on the rules package). Unless he was willing to create a permanent procedural majority coalition with the Democrats, there was no point in getting their help that one time. His only choice was to try to make peace with the GOP rebels. Ditto on the resolution to vacate the Speakership.
The author gets into it in the end, but I still feel like this is pretty damning for the McHenry option. When the continuing resolution expires, who is going to take charge of negotiations? What hope does he have to whip his party into an organized front?
This is an excellent article, thank you for sharing it! One thing Nate didn't seem to get into that I still am wondering is how the calculus works out for the next election. He spoke about future...
This is an excellent article, thank you for sharing it! One thing Nate didn't seem to get into that I still am wondering is how the calculus works out for the next election.
He spoke about future elections being a disincentive for moderates making a coalition with the Democrats, but not how the disarray (and how easy it will be for Democrats to frame it as incompetence) might affect Republicans prospects for 2024. Does anyone have any thoughts?
Voters are forgetful. And the elections are over a year away. Unless this situation stretches on for months -- and the government shutdown for months since the House can't do anything -- I'm not...
Voters are forgetful. And the elections are over a year away. Unless this situation stretches on for months -- and the government shutdown for months since the House can't do anything -- I'm not convinced that voters will punish Republicans quite yet.
Plus, Republicans can also point at the Democrats for being "obstructionist." McCarthy was doing that even after the clean CR passed with the help of Democrats, which is one of the reasons Democrats didn't support him (or least not vote against him) after Gaetz motion to vacate the Speakership. Obviously the obstructionists here are the hardline GOP faction, but if there's anything we've seen over the last decade, it's that many voters just eat up misinformation or anything that confirms their priors, truth and facts be damned.
Now those Republicans in the swing, Biden-voting districts, who are finally flexing their muscles against the HFC, they have the most to lose. And it's a presidential election year, where Democrats tend to turn out. I could see the House swinging to a Democratic majority. How large though? I think it's too soon to say.
I'm in New York, near one of the districts that was flipped Republican on a tiny margin, and I've already seen that rep getting shade on social media for voting for Jim Jordan. In the unlikely...
I'm in New York, near one of the districts that was flipped Republican on a tiny margin, and I've already seen that rep getting shade on social media for voting for Jim Jordan.
In the unlikely situation Jordan or one of his allies does get elected, I imagine Democrat campaigns in swing districts will do their absolute best to tie the moderates to the crazies for voters.
Unless this disfunction drags on and causes a shutdown when the CR expires, I doubt it'll have major implications for the general election. This story is a little too inside-Baseball to be...
Unless this disfunction drags on and causes a shutdown when the CR expires, I doubt it'll have major implications for the general election. This story is a little too inside-Baseball to be consequential to the average voter, and will be drowned out by the Biden/Trump rematch and all the news of Trump's court cases.
Now where this could really have an impact is in party primaries, but it depends a lot on which faction comes out on top. If the far right eventually triumphs, I would expect several of the moderate Republicans to lose their primaries to more conservative challengers. If the moderates win out, they might also try to punish the Matt Gaetz's of the party by withholding some election funding, potentially costing them primary wins. Those primary shakeups could affect the general, as we've seen before that when a far right Republican makes it onto the ticket, that can open space for a Democrat to win out.
If this current situation continues to balloon and the Republicans can't get their shit together in time to avert a shutdown next month, then I think this story might have enough legs to still matter to voters next year. Voters will only remember this issue if it caused them pain, and a lot of people will feel the sting of an extended shutdown.
This analysis had a bunch of interesting things I didn't know about representative's motivations, which makes the current crisis much easier to understand.
This was an incredibly enlightening article that led me down many similarly informative rabbit holes with its numerous sourced references to other people and events.
Thank you for sharing!
I've always heard this saying that roughly goes, "In parliamentary systems, coalitions are made after elections, while in the American system, coalitions are made before elections." And I think this crisis in the House demonstrates that well. They may all be under the banner of the Republican Party, but they really are a coalition of flavors or shades of conservatism. And the same goes for Democrats; Progressives versus Blue Dogs, for example.
The author gets into it in the end, but I still feel like this is pretty damning for the McHenry option. When the continuing resolution expires, who is going to take charge of negotiations? What hope does he have to whip his party into an organized front?
This is an excellent article, thank you for sharing it! One thing Nate didn't seem to get into that I still am wondering is how the calculus works out for the next election.
He spoke about future elections being a disincentive for moderates making a coalition with the Democrats, but not how the disarray (and how easy it will be for Democrats to frame it as incompetence) might affect Republicans prospects for 2024. Does anyone have any thoughts?
This is a guest post; Nate didn’t write it.
Voters are forgetful. And the elections are over a year away. Unless this situation stretches on for months -- and the government shutdown for months since the House can't do anything -- I'm not convinced that voters will punish Republicans quite yet.
Plus, Republicans can also point at the Democrats for being "obstructionist." McCarthy was doing that even after the clean CR passed with the help of Democrats, which is one of the reasons Democrats didn't support him (or least not vote against him) after Gaetz motion to vacate the Speakership. Obviously the obstructionists here are the hardline GOP faction, but if there's anything we've seen over the last decade, it's that many voters just eat up misinformation or anything that confirms their priors, truth and facts be damned.
Now those Republicans in the swing, Biden-voting districts, who are finally flexing their muscles against the HFC, they have the most to lose. And it's a presidential election year, where Democrats tend to turn out. I could see the House swinging to a Democratic majority. How large though? I think it's too soon to say.
I'm in New York, near one of the districts that was flipped Republican on a tiny margin, and I've already seen that rep getting shade on social media for voting for Jim Jordan.
In the unlikely situation Jordan or one of his allies does get elected, I imagine Democrat campaigns in swing districts will do their absolute best to tie the moderates to the crazies for voters.
Unless this disfunction drags on and causes a shutdown when the CR expires, I doubt it'll have major implications for the general election. This story is a little too inside-Baseball to be consequential to the average voter, and will be drowned out by the Biden/Trump rematch and all the news of Trump's court cases.
Now where this could really have an impact is in party primaries, but it depends a lot on which faction comes out on top. If the far right eventually triumphs, I would expect several of the moderate Republicans to lose their primaries to more conservative challengers. If the moderates win out, they might also try to punish the Matt Gaetz's of the party by withholding some election funding, potentially costing them primary wins. Those primary shakeups could affect the general, as we've seen before that when a far right Republican makes it onto the ticket, that can open space for a Democrat to win out.
If this current situation continues to balloon and the Republicans can't get their shit together in time to avert a shutdown next month, then I think this story might have enough legs to still matter to voters next year. Voters will only remember this issue if it caused them pain, and a lot of people will feel the sting of an extended shutdown.