I think there's going to be a lot of hand wringing in the next few days and weeks about Galloway and Labour, but I don't think this is as important a result as people think. On the one hand,...
I think there's going to be a lot of hand wringing in the next few days and weeks about Galloway and Labour, but I don't think this is as important a result as people think.
On the one hand, you've got a disastrous election for the other parties. The Tories were never going to do well in this area, particularly with everything going on in Westminster right now. Both the Labour and the Green candidate ended up losing the support of their respective parties due to remarks made on social media, and so ended up campaigning mostly as independents. And as a far as I can see, the Lib Dems fielded a fairly middle of the road candidate who achieved middle of the road results.
Meanwhile... George Galloway. Love him or hate him (and hate is probably the better emotion for such a vile man), he is deeply charismatic, and was exactly the right man for the area. He's made a significant amount of his career out of campaigning on Muslim issues in Muslim areas. He's set up his base in Muslim neighbourhoods. He's married Muslim women (three of them in fact, at different times). He may even be a Muslim (he never says he has converted, but he never says he hasn't either). He's the white guy who'll finally go to Parliament to be the Muslim voice there.
He is also an excellent - if vicious - campaigner. In a previous election, he obtained - allegedly via impersonating a family member - the marriage certificate of the Labour candidate at a time. She had previously discussed how she'd been in pushed into an abusive, forced marriage at the age of 15. At a hustings, he pulls out the certificate to demonstrate that her abusive, forced marriage had actually started at the age of 16 - to cheers from the audience as he accused her of slandering the Pakistani community with offensive stereotypes.
The result was a historic low turnout, with Galloway's main rival being an independent local campaigner - the sort of candidate who would have at best made their deposit back in a more normal election. Galloway won, but only at about 40% of the vote share, which is a poor result for a candidate who was running essentially unopposed by any of the major parties. Assuming Labour gets their act together and doesn't manage to choose a candidate who posts antisemitic conspiracy theories online for the next election, Galloway is all but certain to be out within a year.
Agreed - Labour dropped the ball and a 'celebrity' politician happened to be involved. It was all a big mess that speaks to the big mess that is Labour's relationship with antisemitism and the...
Agreed - Labour dropped the ball and a 'celebrity' politician happened to be involved. It was all a big mess that speaks to the big mess that is Labour's relationship with antisemitism and the war. But, Galloway has a history of getting his ego stroked then moving on, and is a much more effective campaigner than serving the people he campaigned. With a GE on the way, this could well the shortest of his tenures, and it'll likely be a blip in history.
The result was a historic low turnout
I'm not sure that's the case - by elections do generally have low turnout, some dip below 30% and have even dipped below 20%. This by election had a slightly higher turnout than Wellingborough and Kingswood a couple weeks back, all sitting around 40%.
Good shout, I think I was looking at bad data. The one advantage that Galloway might be able to achieve is that, given he's got less than a year before he needs to get elected again, he might not...
Good shout, I think I was looking at bad data.
The one advantage that Galloway might be able to achieve is that, given he's got less than a year before he needs to get elected again, he might not have long enough for his constituents to tire of him (or for him to tire of them). So if the election happens very soon, in the chaos of a general election he might just be able to keep the seat. But I would still be surprised if that happens.
I think the more relevant thing is about how centre-left movements have run into trouble because they are too risk-averse and unwilling to implement things. Examples include Germany and the US.
I think the more relevant thing is about how centre-left movements have run into trouble because they are too risk-averse and unwilling to implement things. Examples include Germany and the US.
I don't think this is entirely true. The 'centre-leftification' of Labour seems to me to be the inevitable result following the 2019 election. Jeremy Corbyn, the outspoken and eccentric leftist...
I don't think this is entirely true. The 'centre-leftification' of Labour seems to me to be the inevitable result following the 2019 election. Jeremy Corbyn, the outspoken and eccentric leftist was unable to draw the country in. Labour suffered a landslide defeat, even after 10 years of Tory rule. He was expelled from the party and we got a centrist as a replacement.
Despite the results of this by-election, Labour is still holding a strong lead in the polls, which they've held for quite some time. We've seen large conservative majorities overturned by Labour in recent by elections.
Labours strategy is so far working great for them. Keeping small, having no real opinions, and being the 'not conservative' party is working for them. I doubt it will work in the future, but for now it doesn't have to.
As others have said in this thread, this by-election was uniquely set against Labour, and I don't think too much can be read into it.
For what it's worth, I wish I could say Labour should be concerned about the lack of support from the left. I myself am currently deciding whether or not to vote Labour in the next GE for a number of reasons (trans issues, Palestine, etc.), but the vast majority of the British public aren't left leaning. Those that are face the same struggle I do in deciding who to vote for. Do I vote for Labour to ensure that the Tories are ousted (hard), or do I vote for the candidate I actually want, splitting the vote and risking another conservative (or god forbid Reform) victory.
I was going to agree with that, but living in Germany, I'm not sure that's really the case. The Ampel coalition have shown themselves willing to make pretty big changes - the Deutchlandticket is a...
I was going to agree with that, but living in Germany, I'm not sure that's really the case. The Ampel coalition have shown themselves willing to make pretty big changes - the Deutchlandticket is a great example of a plan that meaningfully helps people by reducing commuting costs, makes eco-friendly forms of transport much more desirable, and changes the Overton window on what transport should look like for the average person. There's also some really exciting changes (for me at least!) happening making legal migration easier and more attractive.
Where they've struggled to get other big-ticket items across the line, my impression is that it's had a lot to do with needing support from the FDP, the other member of Ampel outside of the Greens and the left-wing SDP. They're a fiscally conservative, socially liberal (at least theoretically) party, kind of along the lines of the Libertarian Party in the US in the 2000s when everyone was excited about Ron Paul. They've made it a lot harder to make other changes, and have also reduced the scope of some of the other policies. In that regard, the problem for the centre-left is not being too risk-averse, instead it's being held back by this damn democracy thing we keep on trying our hand at.
I have never lived in the US and I don't have enough experience there to comment on the situation with any sort of expertise, but my impression as an outsider is that it seems difficult to draw serious conclusions about politics in general from the US zeitgeist, because of the various oddities of the US political system that will elect a president or a congress or whatever, but make it almost impossible for them to do anything.
And to come back to this case in Rochdale, this has absolutely nothing to do with centre-left movements struggling with gaining popularity. Right now, at least in terms of party polling, the centre-left is at its most popular point in a long while, and due to completely decimate the Tories. The problems that the centre-left (or at least, Labour) have had in Rochdale have mostly come down to fielding a terrible candidate who they later had to abandon.
I think there's going to be a lot of hand wringing in the next few days and weeks about Galloway and Labour, but I don't think this is as important a result as people think.
On the one hand, you've got a disastrous election for the other parties. The Tories were never going to do well in this area, particularly with everything going on in Westminster right now. Both the Labour and the Green candidate ended up losing the support of their respective parties due to remarks made on social media, and so ended up campaigning mostly as independents. And as a far as I can see, the Lib Dems fielded a fairly middle of the road candidate who achieved middle of the road results.
Meanwhile... George Galloway. Love him or hate him (and hate is probably the better emotion for such a vile man), he is deeply charismatic, and was exactly the right man for the area. He's made a significant amount of his career out of campaigning on Muslim issues in Muslim areas. He's set up his base in Muslim neighbourhoods. He's married Muslim women (three of them in fact, at different times). He may even be a Muslim (he never says he has converted, but he never says he hasn't either). He's the white guy who'll finally go to Parliament to be the Muslim voice there.
He is also an excellent - if vicious - campaigner. In a previous election, he obtained - allegedly via impersonating a family member - the marriage certificate of the Labour candidate at a time. She had previously discussed how she'd been in pushed into an abusive, forced marriage at the age of 15. At a hustings, he pulls out the certificate to demonstrate that her abusive, forced marriage had actually started at the age of 16 - to cheers from the audience as he accused her of slandering the Pakistani community with offensive stereotypes.
The result was a historic low turnout, with Galloway's main rival being an independent local campaigner - the sort of candidate who would have at best made their deposit back in a more normal election. Galloway won, but only at about 40% of the vote share, which is a poor result for a candidate who was running essentially unopposed by any of the major parties. Assuming Labour gets their act together and doesn't manage to choose a candidate who posts antisemitic conspiracy theories online for the next election, Galloway is all but certain to be out within a year.
Agreed - Labour dropped the ball and a 'celebrity' politician happened to be involved. It was all a big mess that speaks to the big mess that is Labour's relationship with antisemitism and the war. But, Galloway has a history of getting his ego stroked then moving on, and is a much more effective campaigner than serving the people he campaigned. With a GE on the way, this could well the shortest of his tenures, and it'll likely be a blip in history.
I'm not sure that's the case - by elections do generally have low turnout, some dip below 30% and have even dipped below 20%. This by election had a slightly higher turnout than Wellingborough and Kingswood a couple weeks back, all sitting around 40%.
Good shout, I think I was looking at bad data.
The one advantage that Galloway might be able to achieve is that, given he's got less than a year before he needs to get elected again, he might not have long enough for his constituents to tire of him (or for him to tire of them). So if the election happens very soon, in the chaos of a general election he might just be able to keep the seat. But I would still be surprised if that happens.
I think the more relevant thing is about how centre-left movements have run into trouble because they are too risk-averse and unwilling to implement things. Examples include Germany and the US.
I don't think this is entirely true. The 'centre-leftification' of Labour seems to me to be the inevitable result following the 2019 election. Jeremy Corbyn, the outspoken and eccentric leftist was unable to draw the country in. Labour suffered a landslide defeat, even after 10 years of Tory rule. He was expelled from the party and we got a centrist as a replacement.
Despite the results of this by-election, Labour is still holding a strong lead in the polls, which they've held for quite some time. We've seen large conservative majorities overturned by Labour in recent by elections.
Labours strategy is so far working great for them. Keeping small, having no real opinions, and being the 'not conservative' party is working for them. I doubt it will work in the future, but for now it doesn't have to.
As others have said in this thread, this by-election was uniquely set against Labour, and I don't think too much can be read into it.
For what it's worth, I wish I could say Labour should be concerned about the lack of support from the left. I myself am currently deciding whether or not to vote Labour in the next GE for a number of reasons (trans issues, Palestine, etc.), but the vast majority of the British public aren't left leaning. Those that are face the same struggle I do in deciding who to vote for. Do I vote for Labour to ensure that the Tories are ousted (hard), or do I vote for the candidate I actually want, splitting the vote and risking another conservative (or god forbid Reform) victory.
I was going to agree with that, but living in Germany, I'm not sure that's really the case. The Ampel coalition have shown themselves willing to make pretty big changes - the Deutchlandticket is a great example of a plan that meaningfully helps people by reducing commuting costs, makes eco-friendly forms of transport much more desirable, and changes the Overton window on what transport should look like for the average person. There's also some really exciting changes (for me at least!) happening making legal migration easier and more attractive.
Where they've struggled to get other big-ticket items across the line, my impression is that it's had a lot to do with needing support from the FDP, the other member of Ampel outside of the Greens and the left-wing SDP. They're a fiscally conservative, socially liberal (at least theoretically) party, kind of along the lines of the Libertarian Party in the US in the 2000s when everyone was excited about Ron Paul. They've made it a lot harder to make other changes, and have also reduced the scope of some of the other policies. In that regard, the problem for the centre-left is not being too risk-averse, instead it's being held back by this damn democracy thing we keep on trying our hand at.
I have never lived in the US and I don't have enough experience there to comment on the situation with any sort of expertise, but my impression as an outsider is that it seems difficult to draw serious conclusions about politics in general from the US zeitgeist, because of the various oddities of the US political system that will elect a president or a congress or whatever, but make it almost impossible for them to do anything.
And to come back to this case in Rochdale, this has absolutely nothing to do with centre-left movements struggling with gaining popularity. Right now, at least in terms of party polling, the centre-left is at its most popular point in a long while, and due to completely decimate the Tories. The problems that the centre-left (or at least, Labour) have had in Rochdale have mostly come down to fielding a terrible candidate who they later had to abandon.