28 votes

Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - July 6

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Tags: russia, ukraine, military conflict, war, geopolitics, 2022 russian invasion of ukraine, recurring.weekly

This thread is posted weekly on Thursday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.

If you'd like to help support Ukraine, please visit the official site at https://help.gov.ua/ - an official portal for those who want to provide humanitarian or financial assistance to people of Ukraine, businesses or the government at the times of resistance against the Russian aggression.

6 comments

  1. unkz
    Link
    Former U.S. officials have held secret Ukraine talks with prominent Russians https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna92610

    Former U.S. officials have held secret Ukraine talks with prominent Russians

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna92610

    A group of former senior U.S. national security officials has held secret talks with prominent Russians believed to be close to the Kremlin — and, in at least one case, with the country’s top diplomat — with the aim of laying the groundwork for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, half a dozen people briefed on the discussions said.

    In a high-level example of the back-channel diplomacy taking place behind the scenes, Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov met with members of the group for several hours in April in New York, four former officials and two current officials said.

    6 votes
  2. [3]
    Fal
    Link
    US caves on cluster bomb support for Ukraine

    US caves on cluster bomb support for Ukraine

    The Biden administration announced on Friday that it would provide Ukraine with up to $800 million worth of military equipment to assist the country’s counteroffensive against Russia. The package includes Bradley and Stryker armored vehicles, howitzer rounds, ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, and, most significantly, thousands of cluster munitions.

    But what makes cluster munitions so controversial is not their use against war infrastructure but rather their impact on civilian populations. According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, up to 40 percent of cluster bombs result in unexploded rounds, or “duds,” which can cause civilian deaths long after a conflict is over. According to senior U.S. officials, the United States will supply cluster munitions with a reduced “dud rate” of less than 3 percent.

    The United Nations has repeatedly denounced the use of cluster bombs by both Russia and Ukraine, pointing to a ruling in the Geneva Conventions that bans their use against civilians. Even Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said in March 2022—immediately following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—that DPICMs have “no place on the battlefield”; the U.S. State Department has since struck out her denouncement from the speech’s official transcript.

    3 votes
    1. Kitahara_Kazusa
      Link Parent
      Given that we haven't been using these weapons for 2 decades due to international and domestic concerns with them, and instead have actually been paying to either store or decommission them with...

      Given that we haven't been using these weapons for 2 decades due to international and domestic concerns with them, and instead have actually been paying to either store or decommission them with no plans to ever use them again, these really have to be some of the most economical aid we've sent to Ukraine, along with the old M113s. I would not be surprised if shipping these weapons to Ukraine was actually cheaper than disposing of them normally.

      Of course, we didn't stop using them on a whim and Ukraine will have to deal with cleaning up the duds eventually, but that's not a super pressing problem. The widespread use of landmines, including land mines launched from artillery, by both sides, and the Soviet era cluster munitions, means that Eastern Ukraine is already a minefield, and ending the war sooner so that reconstruction efforts can begin is probably more important than trying to minimize the use of cluster munitions.

      If anything I'm more surprised it took this long for the weapons to be sent, but better late than never I suppose.

      5 votes
    2. regularmother
      Link Parent
      I'm going to quote Michael Kofman here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1677435161514737665.html The US and the EU dragged their feet for a year on scaling up artillery production. Now, when...

      I'm going to quote Michael Kofman here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1677435161514737665.html

      A few thoughts on DPICM. Providing cluster munitions to Ukraine, at this stage, could have a significant impact beyond what other capabilities might achieve. Despite the drawbacks, unlocking this stockpile has important implications for the course of Ukraine's offensive. 1/

      Ukraine's offensive is limited by the artillery ammunition available. The US, and other countries, provided a significant amount for this operation. Much of this was borrowed from South Korea. Without this ammunition it is difficult to imagine this offensive taking place. 2/

      Progress has been slow, difficult, and without sustained breakthroughs thus far. While UA retains the bulk of its combat power, artillery use rate is likely higher than anticipated, especially as the past weeks have seen a largely attritional approach. 3/

      Consequently, Ukraine's hardest limit is proably not manpower, or equipment, but arty ammunition. This is foremost about the numbers. Providing DPICM gives access to a sizable stockpile of artillery ammo that can alleviate the time pressure on UA operations. 4/

      With DPICM the US is also in a much better position to sustain Ukraine's war effort into next year, which requires significant amounts of artillery ammunition on a monthly basis. While other capabilities may be great to have, providing DPICM may prove more impactful. 5/

      While UA retains options, the offensive may culminate whenever the ammunition runs low. Extending that timeline is critical. I wont get into the debate on effectiveness vs the risks, dud rates, etc. My view is these considerations are ultimately best left for Ukraine to weigh.

      The US and the EU dragged their feet for a year on scaling up artillery production. Now, when Ukraine is desperately low on 155mm artillery ammunition and trying to push an attritional offensive, that inaction has shown its consequences. The Ukrainians face a choice between tube-launched 155mm cluster munitions with no Russians and the inverse. That's the Ukrainian's choice to make!

      For me, on the balance of it, I would rather lose an arm or a leg to an errant cluster bomb than my life and end up in another mass grave like those in Bucha, Irpin, and others.

      3 votes
  3. mycketforvirrad
    Link
    Ukraine's Zelenskiy brings home Azovstal commanders released to Turkey Reuters – 8th July 2023

    Ukraine's Zelenskiy brings home Azovstal commanders released to Turkey

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy returned from a visit to Turkey on Saturday, bringing home five former commanders of Ukraine's garrison in Mariupol despite a prisoner exchange last year under which the men were meant to remain in Turkey.

    Russia immediately denounced the release of the men. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Turkey had violated the prisoner exchange terms and had failed to inform Moscow.

    Reuters – 8th July 2023

    3 votes
  4. cmccabe
    Link
    Heineken, Unilever and Oreo maker Mondelez accused of breaking promises to leave Russia https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/10/business/russia-companies-leaving-putin/index.html The searchable list of...

    Heineken, Unilever and Oreo maker Mondelez accused of breaking promises to leave Russia
    https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/10/business/russia-companies-leaving-putin/index.html

    More than 1,000 major companies pledged to leave Russia after President Vladimir Putin launched his devastating war in Ukraine, but some well-known firms stand accused by researchers of violating their pledge.

    Not every company on the list left, but more than 1,000 exited. That unprecedented corporate exodus, championed and chronicled by Yale professor Jeff Sonnenfeld, dealt a serious financial and symbolic blow to Moscow and the Russian economy.

    Now, as Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine blows past the 500-day mark, Sonnenfeld and his team are naming and shaming a slew of companies they accuse of breaking their promises to leave or at least drastically scale back their presence in Russia, including well-known companies like Heineken, Unilever, Philip Morris International and Oreo maker Mondelez.

    The searchable list of these and other countries still doing work in Russia is here (Last Updated: July 10, 2023):
    https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain

    2 votes