‘We are ready for a war’: Somalia threatens conflict with Ethiopia over breakaway region [the Somaliland deal with Ethiopia]

Somalia is unlikely to attack Ethiopia while it grapples with Al-Shabaab, said Alan Boswell, Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group.

This is key.

In any event, the last time Somalia went to war against Ethiopia, they attacked at the height of their power while Ethiopia was in the throes of an internal crisis. Despite this massive advantage, Somalia somehow botched their diplomacy enough that their oldest ally, the Soviet union, switched sides - ceasing arms deliveries to Somalia and beginning arms deliveries to Ethiopia. As if that wasn't enough, the Somalis also offended Castro and then broke diplomatic relations with the Cubans, who ended up sending some 12,000 troops to fight on the side of Ethiopia.

After less than a year the Somalis had lost a third of their manpower, half of their matériel and had retreated back behind their original lines. The war prompted a massive influx of ethnic Somali refugees from Ethiopia, which - in conjunction with the humiliating defeat by their oldest enemy and the hollowing-out of the army - ultimately led to the collapse of the Somali state and 30 years of civil war.

But yeah. I'm sure this time it'll go great.