11 votes

This is what peak car looks like

8 comments

  1. [2]
    NaraVara
    (edited )
    Link
    It’s frustrating to see Lyft and ridehail services pitched as a solution to pollution and congestion when findings have been the opposite. It’s true in suburban areas, but in dense, mixed use...

    It’s frustrating to see Lyft and ridehail services pitched as a solution to pollution and congestion when findings have been the opposite. It’s true in suburban areas, but in dense, mixed use areas it just puts more cars on the road and increases vehicle miles travelled per person.

    Public transit is the only solution to congestion.

    6 votes
    1. JakeTheDog
      Link Parent
      This is interesting, where did you learn this?

      ... but in dense, mixed use areas it just puts more cars on the road and increases vehicle miles travelled per person.

      This is interesting, where did you learn this?

      1 vote
  2. [6]
    lesicnik
    Link
    That's the important part to me here. The "first world" is reaching peak car, because more or less everyone already has one (or two), however the emerging markets will probably be (or already are...

    because of growth in China, India, Russia, and other emerging markets

    That's the important part to me here. The "first world" is reaching peak car, because more or less everyone already has one (or two), however the emerging markets will probably be (or already are for China) the bread and butter for the next decade or so.

    And then we've really reached peak car and it's all downhill from there.

    3 votes
    1. [5]
      Gully_Foyles
      Link Parent
      I still see trains and public transport dominating in the developing world before being supplanted by automated cars. Let's face it, owning a private motorized vehicle is a gross luxury and...

      I still see trains and public transport dominating in the developing world before being supplanted by automated cars. Let's face it, owning a private motorized vehicle is a gross luxury and Americans have long overpaid for it. However, for the first time, that can really change, even in the US.

      People underestimate how quickly automated cars will take over once they move out of the early adopter phase. There are only two forcing functions I have to point to for backing this up: overall cost of owning and maintaining a vehicle, and the rapid graying of the boomer generation who are downsizing and even losing their physical capability to drive themselves.

      1 vote
      1. lesicnik
        Link Parent
        Right now I'm a bit doubtful about the usefulness of autonomous cars in developing countries. For a few reasons. The roads are usually very poorly marked out. The driving culture is very......

        Right now I'm a bit doubtful about the usefulness of autonomous cars in developing countries. For a few reasons.

        1. The roads are usually very poorly marked out.
        2. The driving culture is very... reckless at times.

        Drivers generally don't obey traffic lights, signs or even other drivers, but somehow they get through it. I'm not quite sure an autonomous car would be able to handle that.

        4 votes
      2. [3]
        hungariantoast
        Link Parent
        I think it's largely agreed on that public transportation is the better, future alternative for cities rather than autonomous vehicles, but is there any evidence to support that one is more likely...

        I still see trains and public transport dominating in the developing world before being supplanted by automated cars.

        I think it's largely agreed on that public transportation is the better, future alternative for cities rather than autonomous vehicles, but is there any evidence to support that one is more likely to win out over the other at the moment?

        I personally haven't seen nearly as much enthusiasm or development towards bringing public transportation into cities to replace cars in the United States, despite the technologies capable of doing so being decades or even a century old by now.

        I'll admit that I also don't go out looking for news of public transportation development, but I don't go out looking for news on autonomous vehicles either, yet that's what all the news focuses on, but I'm willing to believe that's because it's new technology, which is why it gets more media attention.

        Still, I haven't seen any evidence to support the idea that public transportation (for better or worse) is going to outpace the development of automated ridesharing as the major means of transportation in the future lives of most Americans, but if you do have evidence of that I'd love to read about it, because I haven't gone out of my way to find it which, for reasons outlined earlier, you probably have to do compared to news about autonomous vehicles, which tends to fall in your lap.

        So yeah, I have a pretty bleak idea of the future of transportation, at least in the United States, but if you have some readings that can brighten my day, I'd love to see them.

        There are only two forcing functions I have to point to for backing this up: overall cost of owning and maintaining a vehicle, and the rapid graying of the boomer generation who are downsizing and even losing their physical capability to drive themselves.

        Are vehicles getting more expensive to maintain? They're more expensive to buy new aren't they? I believe they are, but I don't recall anything about them being more expensive to maintain, and they are more reliable than older vehicles in a lot of way, but if you have some more stuff I could read let me know.

        As far as old people getting old and no longer driving, they've been doing that for decades. Why would now be any different?

        1. spctrvl
          Link Parent
          Not OP, but I would say it has the potential to be different because the baby boomers are a massive cohort that came of age during the peak of car culture, and built their lives around it...

          As far as old people getting old and no longer driving, they've been doing that for decades. Why would now be any different?

          Not OP, but I would say it has the potential to be different because the baby boomers are a massive cohort that came of age during the peak of car culture, and built their lives around it accordingly, particularly in terms of where they live and work. As more and more of them age out of their ability to drive, there's going to need to be corresponding lifestyle changes to deal with this, and the easiest one to implement as a drop-in solution is self driving cars.

          2 votes
        2. Gully_Foyles
          Link Parent
          Given the right circumstances, people are already starting to ditch their cars and relying solely on ride-share services like Uber for their transportation needs....

          Given the right circumstances, people are already starting to ditch their cars and relying solely on ride-share services like Uber for their transportation needs.

          https://thecollegeinvestor.com/19174/uber-vs-owning-car/

          If only using Uber can be cost effective for people, I see fully autonomous driving technology pushing the costs of a car-less lifestyle even further down.

          The reason why older people will be getting rid of their cars now is that this is the first time they have a real alternative. If they wanted to go car-less in the past, they would have to rely on family or friends to drive them around which was not practical for a lot of people.

          In my case at least, I will absolutely be signing my grandparents up for one of these programs once you see them hit the market in a year or two.

          1 vote